TEOFILO LOOKS REAL VALUE FOR 2000 GUINEAS

I imagine that TEOFILO (37) is named after the remarkable Cuban boxing champion Teofilo Stevenson who as famous for never turning professional and for an amazingly long unbeaten streak. The equine version of Teofilo kept his own unbeaten record when winning the Futurity Stakes in seriously good time on his third start.

You see quite a few juveniles earn big speed ratings at five furlongs, fewer at six furlongs while very few indeed run as fast as Teofilo did here at seven furlongs. And it seems clear he could have run faster as he is one of those horses that eases himself up as soon as he hits the front.

Jim Bolger is not one to hype his horses. So when he says Teofilo is the best colt he's ever trained it's worth paying attention. It's also very interesting that he also describes Teofilo as the best looking horse he's ever trained. I say this because there is a powerful statistic concerning the physique of 2000 Guineas winners, and it just keeps on hitting the winner. The statistic is this: 16 times in the last 24 years the 2000 Guineas has gone to a horse that has earned one of the two best physical descriptions that Raceform award; 'nice colt' or 'good sort'. What is remarkable about this is that on average, only three 2000 Guineas runners per year are described this way. It looks clear that Teofilo is going to earn one of these descriptions. It's also clear that he'll be going for the 2000 Guineas from what Bolger has said. So I'd sya he looks real value for the race at Ladbroke's current odds of 20-1.

QUAI DU ROI BETTER THAN JUST A SUMMER NOVICE

You don't get many decent novice hurdlers running in the Summer months. But QUAI DU ROI (36) undoubtedly falls into this category. He romped home by seven lengths in a strongly run minor handicap hurdle. His trainer says he doesn't like fast ground which seems right from his record. He also apparently needs a strong pace. Wherever he goes next he should be hard to beat.

PLATONIC AFFAIR WAY BETTER THAN CLAIMING CLASS

PLATONIC AFFAIR (36) ran away with a Claiming race at Sligo in exceptionally good time for the class. She appreciated the ground soft according to her trainer. But I suspect she also improved for the step up in distance to seven furlongs. Over this trip or perhaps a mile I'd see her as very tough to beat in something like a 50-80 handicap next time if she got her ground.

COOL TOUCH IS PATTERN CLASS

COOL TOUCH (37) won a hot little handicap at Gowran Park in Listed class time. He then followed up in even faster time (38) at Leopardstown on Sunday, winning with a good deal in hand both times. Cool Touch has now won all four times that he's run beyond a mile and is at least Group 3 class according to my speed ratings. He is apparently due to tackle the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes back at Leopardstown next time or the Listed Oyster Stakes at Galway. He should be tough to beat in either race.

KASTORIA DOES IT AGAIN

KASTORIA (39) won the Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown in very good time. She'd run even faster over the Irish Leger course and distance in her previous start and continues to look a big player in that race.

HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR IS THE TOP TWO YEAR OLD

HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR (39) ran a seriously good Group 1 time to take the Phoenix Stakes. This puts him ahead of anything we've seen in the two year old ranks this year on my ratings and equal to the average champion two year old.

It's looks highly likely that Holy Roman Emperor is going to be a miler. His brother Milanova won Listed and Group 3 contests over a mile in Australia but failed to score in eleven starts over longer distances. His half brother Heart Of Oak was also a miler in Germany (he never ran beyond a mile in fact). His other high class sibling Big Viking did take a Group 3 over ten furlongs as a three year old in Japan but his biggest win came in a Group 2 over seven furlongs when he was four.

Holy Roman Emperor now sets the standard for the two year old division. He deserves to be favourite for the 2000 Guineas and should be tough to beat in the Prix Morny on Sunday.

TALWIN IS A USEFUL FILLY

I spent a lot of time wrestling with the numbers for the meeting at Sligo last Thursday because the time that TALWIN (38) ran was so much faster than any other event on the eight race card. But in the end I concluded that I had to award her the big speed rating that the balance of probabilities suggested she merited. She really does look to be Group class as the time suggested.

Talwin showed her best form at two on yielding ground while he main claim to fame at three before this was a third on soft ground in Listed company to the brilliant Galatee over nine furlongs. This was the first time since that race Talwin had run beyond a mile with cut in the ground, so it looks like this is exactly what she needs.

On yielding or softer ground I'd be very interested in Talwin's chances in pattern company.

ZANDERI (37) stayed on strongly to finish a close second. He'd won his only previous start and is bred to go a bit further than ten furlongs. He certainly ran like he'd improve again over longer and looks an interesting prospect.

REFORM ACT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE GALTRES STAKES

Irish runners have won the last two runnings of the Galtres Stakes at York and REFORM ACT (37) looks to have bright prospects of completing the hat trick for the Emerald Isle. She probably broke the course record when taking the Listed Give Thanks Stakes at Cork (no record times are kept so I can only say it was the fastest time in the last decade). And she beat a decent field too.

So far Reform Act has won three of the five times she's run on good or faster ground (she doesn't seem to act on heavy). Her two defeats were both smart runs against colts.

BENWILT BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

BENWILT BREEZE (37) won a good sprint handicap at Tipperary in Listed class time. His trainer, Ger Lyons, feels he's not quite good enough to win a Premier handicap. Actually I reckon he is. What holds him back as I see it is an inability to cope with big fields. He broke his maiden in a big field but has lost all ten times his run in races with ten or more runners since. He's unbeaten in four starts in single figure fields. If he were mine I'd be shooting for pattern races with Benwilt Breeze as they tend to feature smaller fields than the stampedes to be found in Premier handicaps.

ALL NOBLE LOOKS USEFUL

Fast times in Bumper races are rare. So the decent clocking by ALL NOBLE (33) at Cork is worth noting. He strolled home by six lengths and looks a good prospect for novice hurdles and chases seeing that he's already won a point to point. Meanwhile, if he goes for a winner's Bumper I'd be wary of opposing him.

FLEETING SHADOW IS TOP CLASS

I hate making speed ratings for race meetings where it rained just before and during the day. This means the going gets slower from race to race which makes it fiendishly difficult to compute accurate speed ratings. Nonetheless, even figuring on the maximum likely change in ground from one race to the next I have to award FLEETING SHADOW (38) a proper Group 1 speed rating for his win in a seven furlong maiden at Galway.

You have to wonder whether Fleeting Shadow will get beyond seven furlongs since his sister, the very useful Sumora, never reached the first four beyond five. But these days, with everything being so speedily bred, I've learned not to be too dogmatic about saying a horse won't stay because of its pedigree. And if Dermot Weld says Fleeting Shadow can get a mile that's good enough for me.

Weld is apparently going to look at the Phoenix Stakes for Fleeting Shadow over six furlongs as well as the National Stakes over seven. He'd be very much the one to beat in either race according to my speed ratings, and I'm really surprised the bookies aren't quoting him for the 2000 Guineas.

Runner-up CHIVALROUS (37) had finished a half length third in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes on his previous run and improved on that effort here if my ratings are any guide. He pulled no less than a dozen lengths clear of the third, which is some feat in a sprint. I fully expect to see this Coolmore colt prove competitive in Group 1 races.

SUMMER SOUL IS USEFUL

SUMMER SOUL (37) won a good novice hurdle at the Galway Festival in very decent time. His trainer, Dermot Weld, reckons he's just as good on the flat and can land a good handicap. That second to Mrs Gillow at the Curragh does read rather well, so I'm inclined to think Weld is right. In any event, over hurdles or on the level Summer Soul looks worth following.

Runner-up SERVE TIME (36) had won his only two previous starts and also looks a good sort. He pulled a dozen lengths clear of the rest and should soon be winning again.

ACES OR BETTER LOOKS A GOOD PROSPECT

You rarely see a decent time run in a bumper race, so the decent clocking achieved by ACES OR BETTER (34) at Galway is worth noting.

Aces Or Nothing had run a good second in what is beginning to look like a hot point to point last time (the distant fourth has gone on to win since). So he's clearly a good prospect for novice chases. Meanwhile he ought to be able to win decent novice hurdles or more good bumper races like this one.

FAR FROM TROUBLE BEST FRESH

FAR FROM TROUBLE (38) denied ANSAR (37) a hat trick in the Galway Plate and is clearly a progressive, lightly-race chaser that's likely to win another big race. But he breaks blood vessels, and like most such horses almost certainly needs to be fresh. All his wins have been to what I call the rest pattern. That is his first two starts off a long break (three months plus) and then with a gap of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter. I wouldn't bet on this changing. And now he's racing at this level I'd also be inclined to favour him on faster ground like this. Soft ground makes racing more stressful and tiring and can bring on a bleeding episode.

SORRY AL IMPROVES

SORRY AL (37) won the MdDonagh Properties Chase at Galway in very decent time. He's capable of winning another valuable chase if my ratings are any guide. But I just wonder whether he might be best in small fields. He did break his maiden over jumps in a big field, but that was in a race where he was up front all the way and where a whole bunch of horses were far back from soon after the start. But for tipping up at Navan a couple of runs back Sorry Al might well have won the last four times he's run in fields of ten or less. Until he proves he can handle a more crowded race I'm going to oppose him in bigger fields – because an aversion to big fields is the best explanation I've got for his poor runs at Fairyhouse and Limerick.

WORLDY WISE WORTH NOTING

WORLDY WISE (36) hosed up in Listed class time to take a 60-90 3YO handicap at the Galway Festival. He was eased up in the closing stages, so it looks likely he can run a bit faster. No doubt the handicapper will penalize him heavily for the win, but I'd bet on him winning in better company before long.

DANI'S GIRL MAKES LITTLE NYMPH LOOK GOOD

DANI'S GIRL (36) won a seven furlong handicap at the Galway Festival in Listed class time. In doing so she paid a big compliment to LITTLE NYMPH who earned a write up from me here when beating her last time in very fast time. Segoria who finished third to the pair in that race has gone on to win twice since, so clearly it was a red hot contest just like the clock suggested. This being so I'd be wary of opposing Dani's Girl and especially Little Nymph next time.

ELUSIVE DREAM DOES IT AGAIN

ELUSIVE DREAM (39) earned yet another big speed rating from me when blasting home by fourteen lengths at long odds on in a conditions race at the Galway Festival. As I've mentioned before, Elusive Dream seems to prefer smaller fields. He's now won seven of the eight times he's gone 12 furlongs or more in races with 11 runners or less but has lost all eleven times he's run in bigger fields. He should continue to make hay in small fields in Listed and Group 3 company and could well be good enough to pose a threat in the Irish Leger.

DIEGO GARCIA SMART ON TIGHT TRACKS

The tiny but strategically important atoll of Diego Garcia has a very small circumference. So the equine DIEGO GARCIA (37) is very well named because a small circumference is exactly what seems to suit him. He's won the last five times he's run on tracks that are eleven furlongs or less around but lost all ten times he's contested races around bigger ovals. He scored on both the flat and over hurdles at the Galway Festival, clocking a Listed class time for his won over timber.

Diego Garcia is best on fast ground according to his trainer, and I'd be wary of opposing him on the flat or over hurdles on such a surface on tight tracks.

TASMAN (37) only just went under to Diego Garcia in his hurdles win and showed that he's as good as ever. He should be able to take a decent staying hurdle sometime soon.