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NEW APPROACH NEEDS TO RUN A WHOLE LOT FASTER I'm afraid that I cannot yet join the fan club for NEW APPROACH (34). He hadn't run a fast time before he won the Futurity Stakes last Saturday. And in the big race itself he clocked exactly the same time as Jilly Why did over the same course and distance in a 50-80 handicap later on the same card. Jilly Why had lost her last 23 starts, all of them low grade races, and is clearly not that smart. For New Approach to merely equal her time suggests he's just not that fast. It could well be that New Approach and Warsaw went off too fast and this hurt the final time. They certainly seemed to be going a bit too quick for the distance and the commentator did note that they were going a tremendous pace early on. Still, my job is to report how fast a horse has run, and right now I cannot report that New Approach has run fast.
THE QUEEN OF MUD IS BACK Earlier this season DEAUVILLE VISION (39) won the Irish Lincoln in a time that would give her a serious shot of taking a Group 1 race for fillies according to my speed ratings. Now she's gone and replicated the performance with a runaway win in the Listed Kerryman Ruby Stakes at Tralee. After she'd won the Irish Lincoln trainer Mick Halford said that the filly undoubtedly needed soft or heavy ground. She's now won four of the last five times she's run on such going, with her sole loss being her comeback run in July. I suspect that Deauville Vision need that first run back. Nonetheless she still finished less than four lengths off the winner in what is now looking like a red hot race in light of the subsequent form shown by the horses that fought out the finish. The winner, Alexander Tango looked set to beat the Derby runner up Eagle Mountain next time till she ran out of stamina in the last furlong and finished second. The second place finisher She's Our Mark went on to win the Group 3 Desmond Stakes against males. The logical thing to do with Deauville Vision now is to let her take her chance in the Matron Stakes. She would have a great shot of taking that race at big odds if it turned up soft or heavy. And if she reached the first four it would increase her value as a broodmare massively.
RED MALONEY IS SERIOUSLY GOOD RED MALONEY (39) clocked a time that would give him a shot in Group 2 company when taking the Ballycullen Stakes at the Curragh. It was his third win in three tries beyond a mile and indicates he is a horse with considerable potential. His trainer Kevin Predergast insists that Red Maloney will be a better horse next year and will be acting on that opinion by giving him just one more outing this term. If Prendergast is right about Red Maloney improving then he'll be some horse next year.
THE QUIET ENFORCER IS PATTERN CLASS THE QUIET ENFORCER (35) won a Roscommon maiden impressively despite jinking to his left when clear. Clearly he's a useful sort and better over seven furlongs than the six he ran on his debut. This run was Listed class according to my speed ratings. So I would be interested in The Quiet Enforcer's chances in a pattern race next time. Trainer Andrew Oliver says he might well run the horse in a nursery next time if the handicapper gives him a low enough mark. If that happens I wouldn't oppose him.
THE DRAW BEAT HENRYTHENVAIGATOR Both big sprints at the Curragh last Sunday were won by a horse that stuck like glue to the rail. The going was almost certainly a fair bit softer in the middle of the course where HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (32) raced in the Phoenix Stakes. Nonetheless he still managed to work his way into the lead on ground that he was clearly hating with a furlong to go before the winner Saorise Abu (33) was able to rally on what was surely faster ground on the rail. The other problem Henrythenavigator had in the Phoenix Stakes was that is clearly built and bred for longer than six furlongs. He'd gotten away with cutting back to the trip at Royal Ascot thanks to the strong early pace generated by the big field in the Coventry Stakes. But here there were only six runners and the jockeys understandably were cautious about going too fast in the ground. The disadvantage that a seven furlong winner like Henrythenavigaotr faced by running over the six furlongs of the Phoenix Stakes can be see from the record of runners which had previously gone seven furlongs or more before running in the event. There were31 such runners in the last 22 runnings of the Phoenix Stakes and only one scored. Back over seven furlongs or a mile I'm sure Henrythenavigator will show this form to be all wrong. He's run a whole lot faster than this before and will surely do so again.
EVENING TIME AND AL QASI RUN HUGE RACES The Phoenix Sprint Stakes was undoubtedly one of the best sprints run anywhere in Europe this year according to my speed ratings - and the joint fastest run in Ireland in the last decade. It was won by the British raider AL QASI (43) from the brilliant filly EVENING TIME (41). All the jockeys were desperately keen to get their mounts across to the rail right after the start on the heavy ground. Al Qasi's jockey managed to actually grab the rail. But Evening Time, with her wide draw, was stuck out in the middle in what was almost certainly slightly slower ground. She was always going well and looked to have won her race when going into the lead a furlong out. However Al Qasi kept on strongly on the rail and got up level with her half a furlong out before drawing away. I suspect the draw beat Evening Time here. So I'm still going to regard her as unbeatable on soft ground at six furlongs. And the way she travelled suggests to me that she could very well cut back to the five furlongs of the Prix Abbaye and win if she gets her ground. Al Qasi is a seriously good sprinter. He appears to be best with a recent run and would have won all six times he's had a run within the last 30 days but for one short head loss where he pulled too hard for his own good. Al Qasi's three big speed ratings have all been earned on yielding or softer ground. He's won minor events on a faster surface but I suspect he needs cut to produce Group 1 performances like this. He'll have a major chance in Haydock's Sprint Cup if he gets his ground.
BRILLIANT RUN BY JUMBAJUKIBA JUMBAJUKIBA (40) was a bargain at the 18,000 guineas he was sold for at last October's Horses In Training Sale. He won a 60,000 Euro Premier Handicap the first time he encountered soft ground for his new connections. Now he's gone and hosed up in mud again to take the Listed Platinum Stakes in a time that would win most Group 2 contests. Clearly Jumbajukiba is a smart horse on soft going. I wouldn't care to oppose him in any race where he gets his ground in the near future. Jumbajukiba is due to go hurdling at some point. At first glance this might appear a suspect move for a horse whose three wins have been at six furlongs and a mile. But three of the most recent four foals by her dam, excluding him, that were old enough to go hurdling did so, and they've all shown some ability over timber. In addition, though both his sire and dam were milers, they've both produced horses that get further.
DOWNTOWN CAN IMPROVE OVER LONGER There seem to be an unusually large number of good candidates for Doncaster's Park Hill Stakes this year, the so-called 'Fillies' Leger'. DOWNTOWN (37) added herself to their number with a gutsy performance to take a Group 3 at Cork by a short head from HASANKA (37). Watch the video of Downtown's previous run in the Noblesse Stakes and it's clear she was as green as grass. When the stalls opened she was way too keen and fairly charged at the first turn. Not surprisingly she couldn't make the turn properly at that speed, went wide and lost ground. She raced okay for the next few furlongs. But when the field quickened up and went for home she just didn't seem to know what she was supposed to do and rapidly dropped back through the field to second last position. With two furlongs to go Downtown finally got the message and began to pick up strongly. With a furlong to run she was moving in really fast on the leaders but veered towards the rail. This landed her behind two horses and clearly she didn't want to go for the gap and eased herself up, prompting a crack of the whip from her jockey. She kept on from there but it was far too late for her to get going again. Downtown showed no signs of inexperience at Cork. Racing in a close second position till kicking for home she was soon neaded by Hasanka who looked to be going a fair bit better. But Downtown just kept on under strong pressure, and with 100 yards to go she started making slow inroads on Hasanka's narrow lead, getting up on the line in a head bobbing finish. Only a good horse can engage in a protracted duel as Downtown did here and keep going so well. It's obvious that Downtown is a good horse and that she'll probably be a better one over the Park Hill trip. Downtown actually earned a slightly bigger speed rating from me in the Noblesse Stakes despite running green. So I suspect she prefers the faster ground she raced on in that race. Certainly she looks capable of further progress. Hasanka hadn't run for three months. So I'm inclined to believe she experienced some sort of physical problem on her only previous start so far. She'd won on her sole two year old start and would have done so here if she hadn't come up against such a determined rival. She ought to be capable of winning in Group 3 or Listed class before the season is out.
EAGLE MOUNTAIN NEEDS MUD TO WIN These days, with field sizes so small in European Group 1 races, it has become the norm for owners to run genuinely Group 2 horses repeatedly in top level races in the hope that they may sneak a win. The tactic rarely works but it often produces a placed effort and has led to a relatively new phenomenon in Group 1 races - the regular loser. Norse Dancer is the best know regular Group 1 loser in recent years, with 25 losses at the top level to his name. Maraahel is another. He's now lost a dozen Group 1 races. The latest entry regular loser in Group 1 races is EAGLE MOUNTAIN (39) who dropped down to Group 2 company to win last Sunday's Royal Whip Stakes at the Curragh. If Eagle Mountain were to stay in training he might well challenge Norse Dancer's record as he's already lost five Group 1 races and looks set to lose a couple more before the season is out. Like Norse Dancer and Maraahel, Eagle Mountain has a terrific record below Group 1 class. The caveat seems to be that his lack of pace means he needs mud to actually win. So far he's lost all three times he's run on ground faster than soft below Group 1 class but won three times out of four on softer going. His sole loss was his recent second to Stage Gift, who I strongly suspect is a Group 1 horse. I rather hope that Eagle Mountain does stay in training as he seems so wonderfully predictable. He's always going to lose in Group 1 company but looks deadly below that class on soft. Runner-up ALEXANDER TANGO (37) must have gone odds on in running because she was going so much better than anything else for most of the way. She looked set to swamp Eagle Mountain when she cruised up to him with a couple of furlongs to run but tired in the last half furlong and just didn't seem to last the ten furlongs in the heavy ground. Trainer Tommy Stack said after the race that he would likely travel her abroad now in search of better ground. The foreign race I would suggest as her target is the QEII Challenge Cup run at Keeneland in Kentucky on October 13th. The race is restricted to three year old fillies and is run over nine furlongs which looks to be the perfect distance for Alexander Tango. Seeing how well she was going at the nine furlong point I suspect that Alexander Tango can run as fast as Eagle Mountain. If she can then she'd be almost unbeatable in the QEII Challenge Cup as it normally takes an effort equal to only about 36 on my scale to win the race.
DANE BLUE DOES IT AGAIN I mentioned DANE BLUE (36) here when she ran a Listed class time to go under narrowly to North Lodge at Leopardstown in late June. She won for the second time since that run when scoring by a wide margin at Naas. Then she went on to win again in equally fast time at Gowran Park. It's still debatable whether it is the cut back in distance or the switch to softer ground that has improved Dane Blue. I'd opt for the cut back in distance as she followed up this win with another success at Gowran Park on going I rated just on the slow side of good. Dane Blue has now earned pattern class speed ratings from me in three recent starts. If she were mine I'd be shooting for some black type with her once she's had the rest her connections now plan for her. The lightly raced TALIHOYA (36) ran Dane Blue to a head in the second of her wins. It looks like she improved for the step up to a mile and has to be worth following.
SHAKERVILZ LOOKS A GOOD PROSPECT You don't see many fast bumper winners, especially in the Summer. Nonetheless SHAKERVILZ (36) earned a very good speed rating when romping a Sligo bumper on his racecourse debut by eighteen lengths. The dam of Shakervilz has already produced a horse that placed in points. And she is a half sister to five other runners that won or placed in hurdles and chases. Overall, the best horses on her side of the family tend to be chasers, as do those of Shakervilz's sire, Villez. Both the sire and dam's progeny normally stay no further than two and a half miles. So it looks like in the long term we may be talking about an Arkle prospect in Shakervilz. Meanwhile there are more bumper races to be won with him plus a couple of novice hurdles.
CAMPFIRE GLOW LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT IN GOFFS FILLIES MILLION Dermot Weld has a phenomenal record in maiden races at the Galway Festival. And he improved his record in such contests when CAMPFIRE GLOW (35) dotted up in a seven furlong fillies race. Campfire Glow earned a proper Group class speed rating for a juvenile filly over seven furlongs. She is surely going to be very tough to beat over this trip in the Goffs Fillies Million which is her big target. I'd also give her a real chance in the Debutante Stakes if she takes up her engagement in that race.
REKAAB IMPROVES OVER LONGER TRIP REKAAB (37) looked a tremendous prospect as a two year old but only managed a handful of runs at three. This year he's looking as good as ever now that he's racing over longer trips. He hosed up at the Galway Festival in pattern class time and is surely capable of running faster. After all he earned the same speed rating from me as a juvenile and won this with a good deal in hand.
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