FAMOUS NAME TILTING AT WINDMILLS IN MOULIN UNLESS GROUND IS SOFT

FAMOUS NAME (39) easily blew by his rivals to take the Group 3 Desmond Stakes in fast time. This was his third successive win in lesser pattern company. But he's proven repeatedly that he's at least a borderline Group 1 horse. So his connections must be very keen to gain that win at the top level which will ensure his future as a stallion.

Personally I'm not sure exactly how Famous Name can secure a Group 1 win this season. Trainer Dermot Weld may well be right that his best trip is nine furlongs. But it looks like he needs softer ground to be fully effective at a mile. This being so I'd be wary of supporting him for the Prix du Moulin as the ground is invariably fast for that race. If he were mine I'd be steering him towards the Premio Vittoria di Capua in October as the ground is yielding or softer for the Italian Group 1 one year out of two. I'd also be taking a long hard look at the Hong Kong Vase over ten furlongs in December. I concede the ground is pretty much guaranteed to be firm for that race, but Famous Name showed he's very effective on such ground over ten furlongs in the Prix du Jockey Club.

I guess it's too much to hope that Famous Name will be kept in training next year. But if he is the Dubai Duty Free would surely be a tempting target as it's over his optimum trip of nine furlongs and is the world's most valuable turf race. If he fails there he'd surely be able to land that elusive win at the top level if campaigned in America. There are stacks of Grade 1 races over nine furlongs there and the opposition in them is no better than Group 3 in European terms.

CASUAL CONQUEST LACKS ACCELERATION

Rail movements at the Curragh can be so big that it's very hard to interpret the times of races. This being so I wasn't that surprised to discover that the Royal Whip Stakes won by CASUAL CONQUEST (41) was actually a strongly run race despite the fact the time seemed slow in comparison with shorter races on the card.

The front running Red Rock Canyon was nudged along to set what was clearly a good gallop, and this is confirmed by the fact the winner came home over three seconds slower for the final three furlongs than Famous Name did in the Desmond Stakes. In addition his time was more than three seconds better than the other ten furlong race.

Casual Conquest certainly looked good as he edged ahead to win narrowly but a shade comfortably from the smart Curtain Call. The pair rapidly went a long way clear of the rest as they dueled through the last three furlongs.

The problem that Dermot Weld's star has is his lack of acceleration.

Before his Group 1 win on heavy ground earlier this year Casual Conquest's big claim to fame was his six length romp in last year's Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. But he beat a weak and suspect field there in a race where the Coolmore pacemaker Hindu Kush did too good a job. That horse went off so fast that every horse which chased him tired. This gave a big edge to Casual Conquest who had been dropped out last. Basically everything tired badly to run the final furlong in 13.2 seconds or slower. This allowed Casual Conquest to simply lope past them all without having to accelerate.

Casual Conquest got totally outsprinted by Bronze Cannon on his seasonal debut at Newmarket. And it was worrying how he got run down by a couple of rather ordinary rivals in a Group 3 last time after kicking into the lead a furlong and a half out.

It seems to me that unless the early pace is incredibly strong Casual Conquest needs genuinely heavy ground to win in Group 1 company. I'd also say that he's probably better over a mile and a half rather than ten furlongs. This being so I wouldn't rate his chances of taking the Irish Champion Stakes very highly at all.

This run did seem to suggest that CURTAIN CALL (40) is just a shade below true Group 1 class. However it did confirm that Cumani's horse is smart on soft ground.

Curtain Call's preference for softer ground is obscured by a couple of races where the going was misreported. Race times show it was good ground when he lost the Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud not the official good to yielding and soft. He'd won three of the four most recent times that he'd run on genuinely yielding or softer ground before this good performance and is capable of taking a Group 2 when he gets his ground.

If he were mine the race I'd be shooting for with Curtain Call is the Premio Roma. The Italian race is invariably a weak Group 1 that's almost always run on soft ground. Best of all it's over Curtain Call's optimum trip of ten furlongs.

CLASHNACREE NEEDS LONGER

CLASHNACREE (36) clocked a pattern class time when losing a hot six furlong maiden to Group placed Beethoven (36) at Leopardstown. He made rapid progress and looked set to blow by Beethoven without any problem. But just as he was about to do so the winner carried him across the track and managed to hang on by a head. It was a little surprising that he didn’t lose the race in the subsequent stewards’ enquiry.

Clashnacree is a bigger, scopier horse than Beethoven. He’s built and bred for a mile or more. So it’s not surprising he ran below form when cut back to five furlongs at Royal Ascot.

This was a very strongly run six furlongs and it clearly brought Clashnacree’s obvious stamina into play. He will surely be stepped up to seven furlongs next time and would deserve to be odds on for a maiden over that trip. Indeed I rate him good enough to win an ordinary Group 3 over that distance or a mile.

LILLIE LANGTRY NOT AS GOOD AS CABARET

Some bookies promoted LILLIE LANGTRY (34) to favourite for the 1000 Guineas on the basis of her win in the Debutante Stakes. And while I concede she ended up winning with a little in hand I can’t rate her in the same league as her stablemate Cabaret on my ratings.

The way that Lillie Langtry outpaced DEVOTED TO YOU (32) in the closing stages was impressive. But the runner up is a one-paced sort that’s clearly going to be wanting much longer trips.

My prediction is that if Lillie Langtry represents Coolmore in the Moyglare rather than Cabaret the prize will go to Godolphin courtesy of Long Lashes.

DEVOTED TO YOU A SERIOUS OAKS PROSPECT

The best performance on the clock at Galway last week was that put by DEVOTED TO YOU (37) in a seven furlong maiden. She bolted up by nine lengths in a time that indicates she is a Group 1 filly.

In the race Devoted To You broke well but slowly ceded ground despite being nudged along due to the searching early gallop. But then they hit the uphill section approaching the straight and her stamina suddenly came into play. She surged forward, soon took the lead and rolled further and further ahead up the short homestraight.

On her debut Devoted To You had finished third to her top class stablemate Cabaret in another seven furlong maiden where she stayed on nicely in the closing stages. Next time out she clearly had problems being cut back to six furlongs. She pushed on into the lead when asked to go and win the race but simply lacked the pace to contain two rivals who went by her in the final furlong. This time the combination of an extra furlong, heavy ground and a very strong pace totally offset her obvious lack of acceleration.

Devoted To You is a tall, good-bodied, long striding, very deep chested filly who looks built for every inch of a mile and a half. It's tempting to say that she won't be fully effective at the relatively short distances of two year old races in more normal, less testing circumstances. But her improvement could also be due to simply getting fitter with each race. She's a great big filly that has probably been hard to get fit at home.

We'll soon have the chance to see because Devoted To You is engaged to run in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes as I write this. Whatever happens to her there and in other big two year old races she looks a live prospect for next year's Oaks.

ALFRED NOBEL PRODUCES DYNAMITE FINISH

As a producer of speed ratings I hate slow run races, especially when they're as slow run as the Phoenix Stakes won by ALFRED NOBEL (28). In this sort of situation even sectional times don't give me any sort of handle on the winner's real level of ability.

However the opposition looked so good and the finishing burst Alfred Nobel produced was so strong that I'm betting he'd have bested the speed rating of 36 I gave him for his best previous performance if the early pace had been stronger.

The way that Alfred Nobel picked up in the final furlong was quite remarkable. He looked to be in an impossible position but gained ground hand over fist to win full of running.

Seeing that he's built and bred for a mile and has already won a strongly run seven furlong race I've no doubt Alfred Nobel will get the Guineas trip. He's almost certainly a Group 1 horse. But we're going to have to wait a while before the clock tells us that for sure.

CAPE BLANCO PROBABLY NEEDS LONGER

There is a powerful statistic in the Tyros Stakes. The last ten winners have all had exactly one previous outing. Only fourteen horses with one run to their name have contested the race in the last decade but they produced all ten winners.

This year the obvious choice from the two Tryos Stakes runners with one previous run was CAPE BLANCO (32) and he duly won. And he looked impressive as he did so, particularly up the straight where he powered away from his rivals.

Unfortunately there's no way I can interpret the final or sectional times that Cape Blanco ran in the Tyros Stakes or on his winning debut to say he's anything more than weak Listed class. This just doesn't feel right. So my strong suspicion is that the reason he's looked good but hasn't run fast is he's wanting longer. He's run really powerfully in the closing stages of both his starts to date, getting stronger as his rivals have gotten weaker. And he has the build of a middle distance runner to me.

I recognise that Cuis Ghaire and Nighttime have produced their best over a mile. But all the other top fourty horses by Cape Blanco's sire Galileo (as judged by Racing Post ratings) were best over ten furlongs plus. You could argue that Cape Blanco's dam was a five furlong horse and therefore counteracts this. But her best foal by far before Cape Blanco was Mr. O'Brien who stayed on really strongly when second by half a length in the Grade 1 United Handicap over 1 mile and three furlongs in America. He was by Mukaddamah, a much weaker influence for longer distances than Galileo.

This being so I don't think the 2000 Guineas is going to prove the right long term target for Cape Blanco. Perhaps he'll do okay if stepped up to a mile this year. But next year I reckon we'll be seeing him do best over ten furlongs plus.

CABARET WORTH MAKING A SONG AND DANCE ABOUT

CABARET (38) put up quite some performance to win the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown. She set as strong pace right from the start but actually managed to accelerate just after entering the straight to clock a remarkably fast time. She came home 1.3 seconds faster over the last three furlongs than the useful older horse Hard Rock City did over the same distance in the preceding race and ran 0.84 seconds quicker for the full distance.

There’s absolutely no question that this was a Group 1 performance on my speed ratings. In fact I doubt that we’ll see it bettered by a two year old filly all season.

Cabaret was the fastest horse in the race on my speed ratings and I was rather sure she could run faster than the Listed class time she clocked on her previous start. On that occasion she was not fully ridden out in the closing stages but still drew off nicely from a runner up that had made a determined run at her. The way that she made two big moves in that race, the first to kick on and the second to put away the runner up, is something only a useful horse can do. And she did it with energy to spare. This being so I wasn’t that surprised to see her make such a big move forward here.

On her debut Cabaret had run green when asked to pick up around the home turn over this course and distance, dropping back instead of picking up ground. However once her jockey decided to ride her out with hands and heels only she moved up smoothly from fourth to second in the final furlong. I have little doubt she’d have won if she’d known more about racing.

Cabaret is a muscular, rather classy looking filly that looks set to be the top rated filly in the Free handicap at season’s end. There’s a slight concern that she may need cut in the ground and a searching gallop to be effective over seven furlongs and a mile. But she showed plenty of pace here and doesn’t show any knee action. So I’m not concerned on that score. I’d prefer to see her over a mile. But if she goes for the Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven furlongs I’d still expect her to win even on fast ground. She’s still a little leggy, so there’s plenty of reason for her to improve from two to three. The 14-1 available about her for the 1000 Guineas looks rather generous.

If there was another top class filly in the race I’d bet on it being KITTY KIERNAN (33). She would almost certainly have been a clear second instead of third if she hadn’t chased the winner so hard right from the start.

Kitty Kiernan is a scopey, good-bodied, mature, good looking sort that looks likely to improve on this run.