MOYGLARE SHOULD PRODUCE SEVERAL BIG RACE WINNERS

Fast two year old fillies have been remarkably thin on the ground so far this season. Some have looked good while clocking slow times but I've held off on writing them up because I couldn't find a way to interpret their times to suggest they were long term Group 1 prospects.

Prime amongst these is Memory who started even money favourite to win the Moyglare Stud Stakes last Sunday.

Lack of speed was not Memory's only weakness going into the big race. Lack of proven stamina was a big concern too.

Over the previous thirteen years 45 fillies that hadn't previously run over seven furlongs or more had tackled the Moyglare Stud Stakes and they all lost - many at short prices.

This being so I'm not that surprised Memory finished over seven lengths back in sixth place. I'm not going to indulge in making excuses for her. She still needs to prove to me she's a high class horse.

The last thirteen Moyglare winners had all won over seven furlongs before or reached the first three in pattern company over the distance. In addition they all earned a Racing Post rating of at least 89 last time out and that was their biggest ever rating. In other words they were proven stayers in top form.

This year three fillies fit this profile - Misty For Me, Laughing Lashes and Kissable. They filled the first three places and look worth following, as does the close up fourth Together.

I was impressed with the way the first four broke clear of the other eight runners from before halfway and proceeded to open up a gap on them that widened to five lengths by the time they reached the finish.

My impression from watching the race is that the principals, with the possible exception of Laughing Lashes, are all future middle distance sorts. None of them showed a brilliant burst of speed. They just slowly got away from the rest of the field on stamina and class.

MISTY FOR ME (37) made all the running, increased the pace after three furlongs and kept going strongly to earn a Group 1 speed rating. She's clearly going to be a big player in the Fillies Mile or the Marcel Boussac. I guess it's possible she'll have the speed for the Guineas next year. More likely her best shot of Classic success lies over longer distances.

LAUGHING LASHES (36) had beaten Misty For Me by a length in the key prep race, the Debutante. Here she produced the same level of form but the winner improved past her. She may not have a great turn of foot but, like the winner, she's been very consistent and keeps going strongly.

The horse I like most from the race is KISSABLE (36) because of the way she sustained her effort. She was pretty much flat to the boards when the pace picked up before halfway but kept grinding away till eventually her stamina began to pull the leaders back. With a furlong to go she was a somewhat detached fourth. Then she really started to make inroads in the last 100 yards to finish a close third.

A stronger gallop, softer ground or a longer distance would probably have swung things Kissable's way. Her trainer Kevin Prendergast says she needs a bit of cut in the ground to produce her best. But even if the ground is as fast for the Fillies' Mile I'm going to be very interested in Kissable's chances.

The first three were beginning to edge away from TOGETHER (35) in the closing stages. But next year over middle distances she looks likely to do very well.

HIGH RULER NEEDS LONGER

I confess that I was initially a little disappointed at the way PATHFORK (36) won the Futurity Stakes. He certainly moved best throughout the race and won the duel for home with the runner up quite comfortably. But I was hoping for something a little more spectacular.

On reflection though, this was a perfectly good win by Pathfork. He picked up well in the final three furlongs to come home nearly half a second faster than they did in the good race for 2YO fillies they had earlier on the card. When I take account of this to adjust my speed ratings it indicates he produced a second Group 2 class performance in two starts.

Pathfork still has the build of a miler to my eye. And he's a little too 'turfy' looking for me to give him a great chance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a race his Kentucky owners are understandably keen to run him on. He's got a dirt sire but a turf dam and is a good deal leaner and ganglier than the average dirt runner.

The horse I most liked out of the race was fourth placed HIGH RULER (31). He's rangy, deep chested sort that seems to take more after his Oaks winning dam than his sprinting sire. He was being scrubbed along from before halfway and actually dropped back to last briefly approaching the furlong pole. But despite running green he stayed on really well to pass three horses and finish fourth.

The Royal Lodge looks the logical target for High Ruler. The stiff mile at Ascot should suit him well. Longer term I see him developing into a middle distance horse next year.

DANDY BOY CAN IMPROVE

I was rather impressed by the way DANDY BOY (37) performed when running a close second to BEETHOVEN (38) in the Desmond Stakes.

Dandy Boy was going tremendously well as they rounded the home turn. He was in last place but simply climbing over the back of his rivals. However this was partly because the pace up to three furlongs out was not that fast. As a result Dandy Boy had to be asked to gain ground into an accelerating pace in the homestraight - not an easy thing to do.

Nonetheless Dandy Boy closed smoothly and briefly looked set to go by Beethoven till the winner just pulled out a bit more and kept on rolling.

My feeling from watching this run is that Dandy Boy is better than he's shown. He's a good-bodied, muscular sort that clearly has serious pace.

I see that Dandy Boy has not lasted home when he's tried seven furlongs or more on yielding or softer ground or a mile in huge fields which generate a strong pace. Otherwise though his form is basically spotless.

I reckon Dandy Boy is capable of winning in Group 2 company in the right circumstances and would like to see him shoot for the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket.

ZOFFANY LOOKS SOMETHING SPECIAL

I've noted earlier that I rate ZOFFANY (36) the top two year old. His win in the Phoenix Stakes confirmed this idea.

The race illustrated the difficulties team Coolmore can have when trying to set up a race for one of their big name horses with pacemakers. One of his pacemakers got trapped behind a wall of horses and couldn't get to the front. The other one didn't set a particularly strong pace and managed to hamper Zoffany as he fell back.

Zoffany was still last with a furlong and a half to travel and needed to run the last 200 yards half a second quicker than Snaefell did winning the Group 3 sprint for older horses to pick up the leaders. However he only had to be shaken up to do so and was clearly running against inferior horses judging by the ease with which he did the job. It was awfully impressive how well he picked and how smoothly he was traveling as he crossed the line. My ratings say he could have run at least a couple of lengths per mile quicker if he'd got through sooner and it certainly looked that way.

My thinking is that Zoffany will be able to beat any juvenile I've seen this season, and any that are likely to run too. His remarkable turn of foot, which he displayed once more here, makes me think he's going to be very tough to beat in the upcoming two year old races he runs in as well as the Guineas.

Seeing how he wins his races so easily and clearly has stamina for way longer than he's running it makes sense to crack on with Zoffany and win a bunch of races with him at two - the National Stakes, the Dewhurst and the Grand Criterium being the logical big three. He's a big strong beast that's cruising away from his contemporaries. Races are barely more stressful than exercise gallops to him at this stage.

The one race where he could get beat I guess is the Dewhurst if his pacemakers messed up. But even if he ran without pacemakers there I suspect his terrific acceleration would still get him out of trouble.

One thing I really liked about Zoffany's performance in the Phoenix Stakes is the way he went about his business so professionally. In previous starts he'd carried his head a little too high and looked rather green. But this time around he looked the finished article as he readily went though a gap so narrow approaching the line that his jockey had to put his whip down to take it. From what I've seen I think Zoffany is about as good a s a two year old can get.

The thing to bear in mind is that Zoffany is built and bred to go ten furlongs perhaps more in both my view and, more importantly, that of breeding expert Tony Morris. This makes his performance over a mere six furlongs in the Phoenix Stakes all the more meritorious.

Next year Zoffany could be vulnerable in the St James's Palace Stakes or the Irish Guineas if the early pace isn't quick enough. It'll probably be a while before O'Brien steps him up beyond a mile as there are so many Group 1 mile races for three year olds to mop up. Though I have to say if he were mine I'd be shooting for the Prix du Jockey Club after the Guineas. If he sticks to a mile for the first half of the season there's a risk he could get beat at some stage. I believe he'll get ten furlongs and could well stay a mile and a half. Relying on his class and pacemakers to get him through over shorter trips can't work all the time, however good he is.

In any event Zoffany is clearly something special. Most of O'Brien's top horses tend to be the type that lengthen rather than quicken. The last time he had a Group 1 winner with a turn of foot as good as Zoffany's was Rock Of Gibraltar, and he won seven Group 1's in a row.

I've never rated third placed STRONG SUIT (35) that highly and the way Zoffany blew by him late in the race certainly suggests the Hannon colt is not up to winning a Group 1. Zoffany apart, the Coventry Stakes won by Strong Suit hasn't worked out very well. Of the first nine past the post only Zoffany has won since.

Reading and listening to the post race comments it seems to me that a lot of pundits as well as the connections of Strong Suit are trying to explain the result in terms of their pre-race belief that Strong Suit was the best horse in the contest. I think the simplest explanation is that he's not as good as they thought.

The bookies seem to be guilty of the same kind of thinking as they're making Strong Suit and Glor Na Mara second and third favourites behind Zoffany in their 2000 Guineas market.

I can see runner up GLOR NA MARA (35) improving when he steps up to seven furlongs, but I'm still a little sceptical. Zoffany was just running away from him and Strong Suit approaching the line. I don't think either merit being such a short price for the Guineas.

FAME AND GLORY UP AGAINST IT IN THE ARC

FAME AND GLORY (38) didn't have to run that hard to win the Group 2 Royal Whip easily from his pacemaker. But the fact that he needed a strong pace to be effective showed once more that he's going to be up against it in the Arc.

There's a downhill run towards the straight at Longchamp, and the straight itself is only two and a half furlongs long. As a result even off the fastest early pace it's well nigh impossible for the runners to come home in much more than 36 seconds for the last three furlongs and 12.2 for the final furlong. I don't think Fame And Glory is capable of running that sort of pace, especially in the final furlong. As a result he's going to be vulnerable to the strong finishers, just as he was last year when he ran sixth.

I know you can point to the fact the O'Brien win the Arc with another Irish Derby winner in Dylan Thomas and that he too was hardly noted for his finishing speed. But he had more than Fame And Glory and lucked out by getting a bit of cut in the ground and running in a year where the French three year olds were a weak group. Normally the French three year olds win the Arc and that looks very likely to happen this year as France has the strongest group of three year olds they've produced in over a decade on my ratings.

Unless the ground comes up really soft at Longchamp, something that happens only one year in five, I think Fame And Glory is going to get done for speed in the Arc once again.

ZOFFANY LOOKS GOOD FOR VINTAGE STAKES

Johnny Murtagh seemed determined to give his mount ZOFFANY (28) as easy a race as possible in the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown. He kept a tight hold of the horse's head and only let him go briefly approaching the final furlong. The acceleration Zoffany showed when actually racing for that brief part of the race was enough to ensure a comfortable win, and Murtagh was easing him up some way before the line.

I don't think Murtagh would have been so cautious about not extending Zoffany if his connections didn't have a very immediate target in mind. This being so I note with interest that he's been declared at the five day stage for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

So far Zoffany's trainer has been unlucky in the Vintage Stakes. His nine runners have all lost and four finished second. Zoffany should be able to provide him with his first winner of the big meeting's 2YO showcase.

I already rate Zoffany as good as the average 2YO champion on my figures. He's a big, strong, good-bodied, classy sort that moves powerfully and has serious gears. I'm certain he'll stay at least ten furlongs next year. But his big objective will surely be the 2000 Guineas.

Zoffany has already run five times but has cruised home in four of those races so is still a very fresh horse. I can readily see him emulating Rock Of Gibraltar in taking more than one Group 1 before he's done for the season. Certainly this race took very little out of him, so I wouldn't worry at all if he comes back quickly for the Vintage Stakes.

NOW STEINBECK GETS INTERESTING

STEINBECK (39) went some way to justifying his big reputation when running second to the high class Famous Name in the Meld Stakes over nine furlongs. He couldn't quite go with the winner in the closing stages but it was impressive how he powered five lengths clear of the rest as he tried to do so.

Clearly the extra furlong helped Steinbeck a lot here. I rather like the idea trainer Aidan O'Brien put forward of him going for the Jim Dandy Stakes on dirt at Saratoga. His stride is short enough so that he can keep balanced and won't hit the surface too hard. And he tends to produce a sustained surge rather than a sharp burst of speed which is the way dirt runners tend to race.

The winner FAMOUS NAME (41) had his ideal conditions as he is best over the nine furlongs of the Meld Stakes and with a little cut in the ground, which he had here.

Unfortunately, outside of this particular race there are very few nine furlong contests run at Group level in Europe. So he usually has to make do with a mile.

Famous Name doesn't seem best suited by the sprint finishes of French racing. But in Ireland he has run a mile or nine furlongs seven times and won every single time. He's clocked borderline Group 1 class times on several occasions, including here.

I liked the way Famous name kept going so strongly off a good early pace. That's always been the way with him of course. He lengthens rather than quickens but can sustain his finishing effort for an unusually long way. This makes me think that of the two possible objectives Dermot Weld named the Arlington Million is the better one. If he goes back to a mile for the Marois he'll be up against some very smart specialists over the trip and will be running in France once more where he's zero for four so far.

It must be frustrating trying to get that elusive Group 1 win Famous Name needs to secure his value as a stallion. But if anyone can find a race to make that possible it's Dermot Weld.