HOW GOOD IS KICKING KING?

I thought that KICKING KING (43) had little chance of staying the King George distance. But he not only proved me wrong, he also improved slightly on his best lifetime speed figure.

It now looks like I've totally misread Kicking King. He doesn't just stay three miles, he stays it really well. Indeed, it now looks likely that many of his defeats can be blamed on him not getting a stiff enough test of stamina due to an inadequate distance or a slow early pace.

Most observers feel that Kicking King would have won by at least six more lengths but for a huge blunder at the last fence and the unwanted attentions of a protestor dressed up as Santa Claus on the run-in. If we accept this then we're looking at a horse that would have earned a speed rating of at 45 or more from me. That's absolutely enormous and would be the biggest rating I've awarded at three miles or more in several years.

When a horse keeps on running faster and faster, and doing things that look almost impossible you've got to stop and consider the possibility that it is one of those rare creatures that comes along just once or twice in a decade - the true champion. Champions are effective at a wide range of distances. They win on every sort of going and on every type of track. Somehow they seem to find a way to win most of the time. And very often they make a total nonsense of all the influences in their pedigree.

The only horse I'd dare to call a champion in the last five years was Falbrav. Falbrav broke the European earnings record, won Grade 1 races in more countries than any horse in history, took championship races at every distance from a mile to a mile and a half, and lowered the European records for ten, eleven and twelve furlongs. Kicking King hasn't done anything like that yet. But he's beginning to convince me that he could by continually outrunning my expectations of him.

It looks like Kicking King will sidestep the Gold Cup this year. So if there was a Gold Cup winner in the race it was probably the runner-up KINGSCLIFF (42).

Kingscliff won his first six chases (if you include his two point to points) before suffering his first defeat when second to Artic Jack lasts season. That was the first time Kingscliff has gone into a race without being fresh and trainer Robert Alner doesn't intend allowing that to happen again. He says that Kingscliff needs to be fresh so he may well send him straight to the Gold Cup from this race.

Alner says that Kingscliff is essentially a stayer who will be far suited to going three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham than the three miles around Kempton's tight circuit. On the clock he certainly has a fair chance of ending Best Mate's winning streak. If he simply improved a point or two for the step up in trip and change in course, as seems likely, he'd be hard to beat.

AZERTYUIOP (42) suprised me by staying the distance and equaling his best lifetime speed rating to finish third. But, as I've mentioned before, Azertyuiop's best speed ratings have all been earned in defeat, suggesting he's always likely to be found wanting when tackling a genuinely top class rival. In fact Azertyuiop has now lost the five fastest chases he has run in according to my ratings and won the seven slowest.

MASTER REX IS MASSIVELY UNDER-RATED

MASTER REX (40) bolted up by ten lengths from the useful Cobbet at Wincanton in incredibly fast time for a mere 0-130 handicap chase. He is capable of winning a Grade 2 chase on my ratings and is clearly a seriously good two miler on right-handed tracks. In fact he has now won all seven times he's gone right-handed when he's had a vaguely recent race.

The general view seems to be that the handicapper will now make things too difficult for Master Rex to win again soon. But my ratings indicate that his current official rating underrates his real ability by a couple of stone. I'd love to see him run in a big race on a right-handed track soon as only the very top two milers would have a chance of beating him if my assessment is right.

JAZZ D'ESTRUVAL IS SMART

JAZZ D'ESTRUVAL (38) earned on of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a novice chaser this season when sploshing through the heavy ground to win a decent class B race at Ayr. Trainer Nicky Richards says he needs soft ground though, so a Sun Alliance bid looks unlikely. Long term Richards feels Jazz D'Estruval is a good prospect for next year's Welsh National. He's certainly fast enough for that race, and it frequently goes to a lightly raced second season chaser, which he will be at this time next year. Meanwhile though, there are more races to be won by Jazz D'Estruval. If he gets his ground I can see him surprising some of the better known horses from the big Southern stables in one of the top novice chases.

QUEEN ASTRID THE TOP FEMALE NOVICE HURDLER

QUEEN ASTRID (38) ran outside of pattern company for only the second time in her ten race career when scoring in fast time at Leopardstown on her hurdling debut. This run marks her out as the best female novice hurdler now racing. In fact my ratings indicate she ran fast enough to beat males in Grade 3 company here.

No doubt Dermot Weld has a decent race in mind for Queen Astrid next time. Wherever she goes I'd be wary of opposing her.

SIR OJ (38) staked his claim to this season's renewal of the Arkle when tipping up at the last with a clear lead in the Grade 1 Durkan New Homes Novice Chase at Leopardstown.

If Sir Oj had stayed on his feet he would have taken his winning streak at trips short of two and a half miles to seven. I'm rating him as if he would have maintained the three length margin he held at the last. If he had he would have equaled the best rating he's run over fences so far.

Most Arkle winners didn't run any faster than Sir Oj has before winning at Cheltenham. And nothing among this season's likely runners has bettered Sir Oj's best speed ratings to date. So I'd say that the 20-1 currently offered by William Hill about his chances in the big race looks a tad generous.

BLACK APALACHI IS CHELTENHAM MATERIAL

BLACK APALACHI (38) won by 20 lengths at Downpatrick and now rates as one of the best prospects for the Sun Alliance Hurdle on my ratings. Trainer Philip Rothwell plans to run him in handicaps rather than novice events. Seeing that he says Black Apalachi doesn't take much racing, I imagine he has something valuable in mind. He ought to win wherever he runs, as long as he can avoid the very top hurdlers. Thereafter I hope he's rested for Cheltenham as he'd have a big chance of winning one of the big handicap hurdles on my ratings if he is steered away from the Sun Alliance.

DON'T WRITE OFF HARDY EUSTACE

SOLERINA (37) again didn't run her fastest when extending her unbeaten run on soft ground to 15 in the Tara Hurdle. HARDY EUSTACE (36) did well to run her so close on his seasonal debut, and without the blinkers that seemed to improve him last Spring.

I gave Hardy Eustace a rating of 45 for his win in the Champion Hurdle last March. That makes him the fastest jumper in training by my estimates. My read of his form is that he needs soft ground but can handle good or slower on tracks with steep uphill finishes. In these circumstances his form figures read 112112112. The first two losses came in slow run races, and this latest defeat was against a horse allowed an uncontested lead.

I think a lot of people don't realize just how good Hardy Eustace is. Hopefully next time he'll get the going and the course to show us.

On the same card NUMBERSIXVALVERDIE (37) ran a lifetime best to run away with a three mile handicap chase. It looks like he improved for the step up to three miles. If he gets the soft ground he seems to need next time out I wouldn't want to oppose him at this sort of trip.

THE GALWAY MAN (37) won a hot little conditions chase at Galway in fast time despite not jumping that well. Jockey Paul Carberry said that The Galway Man didn't really handle the soft going, which I guess means he needs a bit more bounce in the ground to clear fences more effectively since he actually put up his best ever performance here. The Galway Man is lightly raced, progressive and looks to be on the way to solving the jumping problems that caused him to exit the race in his three previous starts. He looks to have a serious chance in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas which is apparently his next objective.

I mentioned runner-up BE MY BETTER HALF (37) here before when he ran second in another fast race last time out. He was most unlucky to bump up against another smart winner here. He jumped well and put up a pattern class performance on the clock for the second time in a row. If I convert my ratings to the official scale they suggest Be My Better Half is under-rated by about 20 pounds on official figures. That being so I'd say his best chances lie in handicaps rather than in the conditions chases he's contested on his two starts this term. In conditions chases there is usually at least one high class opponent, but not in handicaps restricted to horses rated as low as Be My better Half is now.

Rathgar Beau (37) didn't run that any faster than The Galway Man when taking the prestigious Hilly Way Chase. I now think he's been somewhat lucky to hit soft fields when taking two Grade 2 chases this season. This being so, I'm inclined to oppose him from now on.

PETERTHEKNOT (9) and SWEET KILN (9) ran no sort of a time when running 1-2 in a slowly run Grade 2 Novice hurdle at Navan. But they'd also occupied the first two places in what I rated the fastest run novice hurdle of the season on their previous starts. This time around Petertheknot was the narrow victor, but with a greater test of stamina I suspect Sweet Kiln will be able to confirm her previous superiority.

KICKING KING LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT AT TWO AND A HALF MILES

I haven't been a member of the KICKING KING (42) fan club. But I may have to apply following the horse's win in the John Durkan Memorial. At least it looks as if I was right that two and a half miles is his maximum distance as he was tiring in the closing stages. As I've mentioned before, his dam's two other foals both failed to stay three miles. This being so, I'd oppose Kicking King with some confidence if he runs in the King George.

Runner-up RATHGAR BEAU (38) looks to be a two and a half mile specialist. If he hadn't twice come up against Kicking King he would have passed the post first all five times he's run two and a half miles. He's lost the last dozen times he's run shorter trips, so I'd be inclined to go against him if he's cut back in distance for his next two starts as is planned. After that though I'll be very infested in his chances back over this trip.

BEEF OR SALMON (35) had missed two weeks of work apparently and obviously needed this run to get him fit for the Lexus chase over Christmas. NATIVE UPMANSHIP (35) almost certainly needed the run too, and his record at two and a half miles remains impressive. I'd think twice about opposing him at his favorite distance next time.

LOVELY PRESENT (35) earned an unusually big rating for a bumper winner when running away with the last race on the same card. She is now to go hurdling and has already proven she can jump by winning the only time she completed in her two point to point starts. I'd therefore bet on her making a winning debut over timber.

CORNISH REBEL SETS THE STANDARD FOR THE NOVICE CHASERS

On his seasonal debut CORNISH REBEL (40) became the first horse in six and a half years to win over Lingfield's tough fences on its chasing debut. Last Saturday he did something even more noteworthy when earning a chunky speed rating from me to take a Grade 2 Novice chase at Newbury.

I'm not going to pretend I've really got a handle on Cornish Rebel yet. There are some indications from his form and trainer that he may be best fresh and with cut in the ground. But there's just not enough evidence to say at present. All that's certain right now is that Cornish Rebel is top class. What I like about him most is that he's not one of those novice chasers that over jumps through fear and fails to learn anything worthwhile about jumping fences. He's made plenty of errors in his two chases to date and has acquired valuable experience as a result.

Celestial Gold (40) banged out exactly the same speed figure to take the Hennessy as he did when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup. It pegs him as a good Grade 3 borderline Grade 2 horse, and it looks like he's set to face rivals who are faster than that for the rest of the season. This being so I'd be inclined to oppose him from now on.

OLLIE MAGERN (40) earned the joint highest speed rating I've awarded a novice chaser so far this season to take second.

Ollie Magern's form shows a couple of very obvious patterns. First of all he's run unplaced all four times he's run on yielding or softer ground. Secondly, all of his eight wins to date have been achieved in fields of eight runners or less. He's lost all twelve times he's run in races with nine or more starters.

Quite a few horses that don't like jumping in a crowd manage to run well at Newbury and around the National course at Aintree, because the track and the jumps are so wide. I wouldn't want to bet on Ollie Magern in big fields elsewhere. However, if he can be found a chase on good or faster ground with eight runners or less I'd be wary of opposing him. He's won eight times out of eight in small fields on fast ground so far.

Royal Auclair equaled his best ever speed rating to take third. However I'm cautious about recommending him as one to follow seeing that his revival has been brought about by a breathing operation. Such horses are normally best fresh (i.e. for their first two starts of the season and then with a break of five weeks plus thereafter). They usually need fast ground to run to their best too. Royal Auclair has now had two runs this term and was lucky to encounter lightning fast ground here.

The horse to take out of the race is surely LORD TRANSCEND (37) who ran a terrific race to finish fourth on ground that was surely way too fast for him.

Lord Transcend is unbeaten in five starts on yielding or softer ground. On his only previous chase start he beat Strong Resolve 17 lengths into second, and that one has won five times since, twice earning pattern class speed ratings from me. I strongly suspect that Lord Transcend is Gold Cup class on softer ground. It's just a pity that the drainage system at Cheltenham now makes it impossible for him and so many of the other top chasers to produce their best in the big race itself.

HARCHIBALD (42) equaled the biggest speed rating I've awarded a hurdler this season when taking the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. Trainer Noel Meade says Harchibald has filled out and strengthened considerably this season, which explains his improvement. He's proven that he likes the kind of strong pace he will encounter at Cheltenham and can produce top class form at a track with a similar layout. So I wouldn't quibble with the bookies who now make him favorite for the Champion Hurdle.

INGLIS DREVER (41) ran yet another big race to finish second. My concern about his Champion Hurdle prospects is that he seems to hit traffic in big fields. He has now lost all six times he's run in fields bigger than ten in class D or higher but had won the last five times he'd encountered smaller fields before this run. In addition, trainer Howard Johnson says Inglis Drefer prefers a bit of cut in the ground, and that's not available at the Chetlenham Festival these days. Still, most of the big conditions hurdles feature small fields and soft ground, so Inglis Drever looks like a horse to follow this term.

ROYAL SHAKESPEARE (40) ran a huge race for a horse facing experienced rivals for the first time. Trainer Steve Golllings says Royal Shakespeare will 'come on loads for the run' and feels that a mistake two out probably cost his charge second place here. So the 25-1 generally offered about Royal Shakespeare's chances in the Champion Hurdle seems somewhat generous. The horse proved he can run with the very best hurdlers here and will surely take something big this term.

A breathing operation didn't seem to help INTERSKY FALCON (38) much, judged by his fourth place finish here. Still, he earned a good speed rating, so I suspect that he can still beat almost anything in more suitable circumstances. Horses with breathing problems tend to be best fresh, on good or faster ground and at shorter trips on tracks without steep uphill finishes. So if Intersky Falcon goes for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton next time and gets good ground I'd be interested in his chances. Thereafter I'd want to see his runs spaced out by five weeks or more and for him to avoid soft ground, trips beyond two miles and tracks with uphill finishes.

VANDA'S CHOICE (37) established himself as one of the better novice chasers when taking a Carlisle contest in fast time. He probably would have beaten the Grade 1 hurdles winner Qazar on his chasing debut but for jumping errors and has now won all of his three starts over fences since. He used to be best going right-handed in Ireland but new trainer Lucinda Ruseels says that therapy to his shoulder muscles seems to have corrected that. I'd say that Vanda's Choice best trip is probably going to be this two and a half miles, so he's not really an Arkle or a Sun Alliance chase candidate. I'd say his best chance of Grade 1 success will come in the Scilly Isles Novices chase at Sandown.

Runner-up PROVOCATIVE (37) pulled a long way clear of the rest and only lost in a photo. He's obviously a smart horse at this sort of distance (it looks like he doesn't get beyond two and a half miles, like most French-breds). The thing to bear in mind is that he is a nervous sort that needs to be fresh to run well according to his trainer. He's now had two completed starts close together, so I'd bet against him with some confidence if he returns to the races in less than five weeks. If, as seems likely, he is rested then I'd be wary of opposing him next time.

LORD OF ILLUSION (36) also posted a fast time once more when winning a novice chase at Ludlow, and my ratings continue to suggest he's capable of winning in better company.

It seems to me that what really affects Lord Of Illusion is stamina. I don't think he gets home over longer than three miles or on tracks with steep uphill finishes. Toss those sort of runs out and Lord Of Illusion would have won five of the last six times he's run on normal tracks at three miles or less but for tipping up when looking the winner one time. The loss came when he ran second to First Ballot in what my speed ratings say was the fastest novice chase run so far this season.

Lord Of Illusion actually showed smart form over fences as far back as March 2002. This was when he ran Therealbandit to a length and a half in an Irish point to point (he pulled up on his racecourse debut when presumably unfit for his only other point to point to start).

While on the subject of novice chasers I simply have to mention the amazing way that Fundamentalist (4) continues to be hyped even after his loss on the Hennessy card at Newbury. I noted here a few weeks ago that Fundamentalist looked to be vastly over-rated according to my speed figures. But when the hype machine gets a full head of steam, slow times and defeats mean nothing. The 'wonder horse' is now to be pointed for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Hype like this distorts reality. And it diverts attention from other horses with genuine ability such as VODKA BLEU (4) who beat Fundamentalist despite an unsuitably slow pace. Vodka Bleu had previously earned the joint highest speed rating I've awarded a novice chaser this season and has now won five of the six novice chases he's contested. His sole loss came when second to another of the joint top rated novice chasers Ollie Magern, who certainly franked the form with his big run in the Hennessy. I'm not totally convinced that Vodka Bleu gets three miles in top company, but Martin Pipe seems to think he does. In any event, I see Vodka Bleu as a future big race winner - and at a nice price too, thanks to the way his win was so discredited by the excuses made for the runner up.

PLACE ABOVE (36) ran away with a class F handicap chase at Sedgefield, running a time that would win many class B contests. His trainer explained the improvement by saying the horse previously had a serious physical problem and that the Animal Health Trust had fixed it. Quite what the problem was he didn't say. In any event Place Above is clearly exceptionally well handicapped and still eligible for races well below his true class. This means he ought to win another couple of races soon.

I normally only talk about horses that earn a rating of 36 or higher here. However in Banded stakes such as the one HAMMER OF THE GODS (35) took at LIngfield a rating of 35 is exceptional. Clearly Hammer Of The Gods improved dramatically due to some combination of the tongue tie the first time blinkers and the cut back to five furlongs. Admittedly the Polytrack has been riding as fast as it ever has for the past couple of meetings, but Hammer Of The Gods still ran the second fastest five furlongs from 123 races at the minimum trip run at Lingfield since the Polytrack was first used back in November of 2001. This run indicates he'll be competitive in class C contests and would be a smart bet to take a class D or lower grade event.

SOLERINA EXTENDS HER WINNING STREAK IN MUD TO 14

SOLERINA (37) didn't have to run her fastest to repeat her win in the Hatton's Grace hurdle. She continues to look virtually unbeatable on soft ground. She has in fact now won the last 14 times she's run on officially soft or heavy going. She's lost all five times she's encountered faster ground.

Wild Passion (18) won the Royal Bond Hurdle in pedestrian time. In fact he's yet to earn anything like a decent speed rating from me in his five hurdles starts to date. I gave him a rating of 38 for his very best run on the flat, and he'd need to better that to have a chance against the best novice hurdlers in a normal season. I'll be opposing him and every other horse that ran in this race from now on whenever they take on decent rivals.

I am not a believer in Watson Lake (21) either. He won the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase on the same card in slow time. He was allowed to set his own pace but still had trouble lasting the two and a half miles. The best rating I've ever given Watson Lake is 36, and that is nowhere near good enough to take a normal Grade 1.

Runner up FORGET THE PAST (20) still ranks as the fastest novice chaser in Ireland on my ratings. He was driven along when Watson Lake quickened up four out before keeping on towards the finish. He looks a three mile horse to me, so the stop-go pace at two and a half miles cannot have suited him. I see him as having a big chance in the Sun Alliance Chase and am amazed the bookies aren't even quoting him.

SANDY OWEN (37) had just moved up to lead when falling two out on his chasing debut. He showed that he would almost certainly have won that day if he'd stayed on his feet when scoring in smart time at Thurles. In doing so he beat the smart KAHUNA (37) into second while the pair pulled ten lengths clear of the rest.

Sandy Owen was probably stretched into jumping errors by racing at a trip shorter than he's bred for. He is apparently going to step up to three miles for the William Neville Novice Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. On the clock he has a serious chance of winning there.

Kahuna would probably have won his first two chases, including a Grade 3, but for falling and was unlucky to come up against such a smart performer in an ordinary contest here. He won in Graded company over hurdles and ran fast enough to do the same over fences here.