MAJOR VERNON RUNS FAST

MAJOR VERNON (37) ran a fast time to beat the useful PUBLICAN (36) on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse. He's obviously one of the better novice chasers and has now won five of his ten starts. So far Major Vernon's record indicates that he's best when fresh. Specifically he seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is he's good for his first two starts of the season but then needs a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts in order to run well again. If I'm right Major Vernon should run another big race next time but will then need a break if he is to hold his form.

Publican improved a good deal on his first couple of chase starts and his jockey felt he might even have won if he hadn't been put off by the winner swerving towards him on the run-in. In any event Publican showed here that he's as smart over fences as he was over hurdles. And that means he should win something decent soon.

TRAVINO DIDN'T RUN THAT FAST

Normally I'd expect a speed rating of around 42 from the winner of a truly run Grade 1 contest. But Travino (36) ran a good deal slower than that when making all the running to win the Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle at Navan. Maybe he can run quicker but for now I'm going to take a negative view.

DOES WAR OF ATTRITION NEED TO BE FRESH?

When a horse is as smart as War Of Attrition (30) is it's hard to discern any obvious pattern to its form until it consistently competed against top class experienced rivals. In lower class or against novices such a horse can win even in unfavorable circumstances by simply outclassing its opposition.

With this in mind I suspect the reason for War Of Attrition's defeat in the John Durkan Memorial last week may be because he's actually best fresh now that he's racing at his correct class level. He'd scored two wins in fast time on his first two starts of the season and most horses that are best fresh need a break of at least five weeks after their first two starts in order to run well again.

Of course it could be that the general assumption about some sort of virus affecting the stable of Mouse Morris will turn out to be right. Either way I'd want to see War Of Attrition given a break now before his next start. If he is I'd still be very wary of opposing him. He is a very fast chaser indeed according to my ratings.

HI CLOY (39) ended up winning the John Durkan Memorial. On the clock he wouldn't be able to live with an in form War Of Attrition. But it's interesting to note that but for that somewhat unlucky photo finish loss last April this would have been Hi Cloy's fifth win in a row at two and a half miles plus. He's won over three miles before and I'm inclined to think he might well be a bit better over the longer trip.

SOLERINA DOES IT YET AGAIN

SOLERINA (41) sailed to yet another wide margin win in a grade 2 contest at Navan last week. Her owner now apparently shares my belief that this amazing mare is at her best at trips between two and three miles. This was in fact Solerina's thirteenth win in a row at distances between two and a quarter and two and three quarter miles. I'd always bet against her staying three miles and wouldn't expect her to have the speed to beat top class rivals at two miles. But it will certainly be interesting to see how far she can extend her unbeaten run over in between trips like this.

DON'T WRITE OFF RATHGAR BEAU

I was impressed with the effort of RATHGAR BEAU (42) in chasing home CENTRAL HOUSE (42) in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork. Rathgar Beau always seems to need his first two runs of the season In fact he's not won until after his first two starts in the last five seasons. So this was a great effort considering. I'd bet on him reversing this form when he takes on the winner again just after Christmas.

Having said that, I have to concede that Central House really does seem to have improved a little this year. He's going to be a tough horse to get by in the near future.

ON THE NET IS A SMART NOVICE CHASER

ON THE NET (38) earned a pattern class speed rating when running away with a Clonmel novice chase by 20 lengths. If a head bob had gone the other way at Wexford last time he'd have been winning his third chase in a row here. Clearly he's improving and acts well in near bottomless ground like he encountered here. Just how good he's going to prove and exactly what racing circumstances he favors only time will tell. For now though I'd be wary of opposing him in any race he contests in the near future. It's going to take a smart horse to beat him.

DREUX WILL BE TOUGH TO BEAT AT LEOPARDSTOWN

DREUX (36) won a strongly run race at Thurles by twenty lengths and now rates as the fastest juvenile hurdler we've seen so far in Ireland. He's clearly improving. And seeing that his trainer is convinced he'll be better going left-handed he's surely going to take all the beating in the Grade 2 Durkan New Homes Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown next time out.

TIGERLION IS USEFUL

TIGERLION (37) ran a fast time to win a decent novice chase at Fairyhouse. So he looks one of the strongest candidates for the three mile Grade 1 novice chase run at Leopardstown just after Christmas. My one concern would be that his best runs so far have all come on one of his first two starts of the season and the Leopardstown race will be his third. It could be that now he's a healthier horse than before (he used to always scope dirty apparently) he won't need to be fresh. In any event he's a horse to keep an eye on judged by the time he ran here.

OLD FLAME SHOULD WIN AGAIN

OLD FLAME (38) ran a fast time when winning a good two mile handicap chase at Fairyhouse by eight lengths. The horses that could beat him rarely venture into handicaps so a follow up victory looks likely.

Old Flame had some decent form in novice company last season. But my speed ratings suggest that he's improved significantly for his new trainer Paul Nolan this term.

SOLERINA QUEEN OF THE IN BETWEEN

SOLERINA (39) only scrambled home from Golden Cross (39), running a few lengths below her best according to my speed ratings. But I'm not going to knock her for that. Solerina has now won the last dozen times she's raced over trips between two and a quarter and two and three quarter miles. She's failed to stay the two times she's been tried over three miles. And she doesn't seem to have quite enough speed to beat the very best hurdlers over two miles. But at these sort of in-between distances she seems a near unstoppable force.

IKTITAF'S WIN WAS SLOW

The clock tells us nothing about the real merit of the win scored by Iktitaf (23) in the Royal Bond Hurdle. The time was slow, presumably because the early pace wasn't quick enough. Maybe Iktitaf will prove to be one of the top novices. Right now all I can say is that he has yet to run a pattern class time in twelve lifetime starts and failed to do so again here.

KILL DEVIL HILL RUNS SLOW TOO

With Church island tipping up at the first and Davenport Millennium soon far back Kill Devil Hill (22) was basically left to beat three remaining rivals in slow time in the Drinmore Novice Chase. Like Iktitaf he has yet to run a fast time and I can't really offer much of an opinion about him till he does.