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WHO SAYS NICKNAME NEEDS IT SOFT
NICKNAME (40) has long had a reputation for needing soft
ground. But race times indicate the going was actually good when he scored his
two Grade 1 wins in France. This being so it's not that surprising he was able
to run close to his best off a lengthy lay-off when a length second to the smart
MANSONY (40) in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown.
True Nickname was under pressure in last place a long way
out. But he was able to pull himself into the race in the closing stages on
ground that was so fast it enabled the winner to clock the fastest time recorded
over the course and distance in the last dozen years.
This run opens up new possibilities for Nickname. Okay he
may get outpaced by the top horses over two miles on fast ground. But I see no
reason why he shouldn't be effective on any going at two and a half on this run.
Mansony is seriously consistent at this sort of trip. He
would have won his last seven Irish starts at distances short of two and a half
miles but for tipping up on one occasion. His trainer says he prefers going
right-handed which certainly seemed evident here as he jumped badly to the right
at the last. This probably explains why he lost on his only UK visit so far at
the tight left-handed oval of Aintree. He should do far better on his next
journey to Britain when he shoots for the Victor Chandler Chase at right-handed
Ascot.
SCHINDLERS HUNT (39) ran a big race to finish a close
third. He is also very consistent at shorter trips. He looked tired in the
closing stages when beaten by One Cool Cookie over two and a half miles and
looks best at two miles to me. So far he's lost all five times he's run two and
a quarter miles or more but might well have won the previous five times he'd
gone shorter but for that almighty blunder which put him out of the race at the
last Punchestown Festival. He's only just off the best at two miles on my
ratings and might just improve enough to take another Grade 1.
KRANJI IMPRESSES
KRANJI (37) won a strongly run handicap chase over
Christmas in a time that suggests he'll still be leniently weighted even with a
big penalty for the win. He made all the running, jumped well and was still full
of run in the closing stages as he strode clear for a six length win. He went
three seconds faster to halfway than they did in the big novice chase on the
same card but still came home 2.5 seconds faster than them over the last three
fences
Kranji, like many front runners, may well be best
dominating a smallish field. So far he's won all three times he's run in races
of 2m 2f or less with 12 or fewer runners and lost all nine times he's gone in
bigger fields. He'll be rested now and will probably be aimed at the Grand
Annual. There will probably be too many runners in that race for him to get an
easy lead. But I'd bet on him being tough to beat the next time he runs in a
field of twelve or less.
FREDS BENEFIT SHOULD HAVE WON THIS
FREDS BENEFIT is the fastest novice chaser on my speed
ratings and looked set to prove it as he cruised into the home straight in the
Grade 2 Guiness Greenmount Park Novice Chase at Limerick. He'd set a strong
pace, and, as was the case last time, his jockey had given his mount a breather
and allowed his rivals to close to within a few lengths. But they were all being
scrubbed along vigorously while Freds Benefit was still on the bridle. It looked
clear he was set for a wide margin win. But then he measured the second last
wrong and came down, leaving MERRY COWBOY (37) to score despite being almost
legless through tiredness on the run in.
Merry Cowboy lost his hurdling debut. Since then he's won
five of the six times he's run 2m 4f or 2m 5f on yielding or slower ground.
Clearly he's useful in these circumstances though he was very luck here.
Freds Benefit would again have run a rating of around 40 if
he'd stood up, so he is clearly something special. I wouldn't want to oppose him
in the near future unless the going was good or faster, which I suspect would be
too quick for him.
SKY'S THE LIMIT NOT THAT GOOD
Sectional times show that SKY'S THE LIMIT (30) put up a
pretty weak performance to take the Grade 1 Durkan New Homes Novice Chase at
Leopardstown. They went a full three seconds slower to the fifth fence in his
race than in the later handicap but then came home 2.5 seconds slower over the
last three fences. A proper Grade 1 horse should have had no difficulty gaining
significantly on handicappers off such a slow pace. The fact that Sky's The
Limit was unable to do so suggests he's nothing like as good as his record makes
him look.
TRANQUIL SEA (36)
WON IN THE DARK (33)
OUR BEN IMPROVES OVER TWO MILES
Trainer Willie Mullins has long said that OUR BEN (40)
doesn't quite get three miles. After last week's Hilly Way Chase at Cork it now
seems evident the horse is actually best over two. He stuck close to the
searching pace set by Central House, jumped well and kept going strongly all the
way to the finish to produce his best ever performance.
It looks like Our Ben needs cut in the ground to be
effective at short trips. He would now have won five of the six times he's gone
two and a quarter miles or less on yielding or softer ground but for tipping up
one time with the race one. His only real defeat was a two length loss to
Mansony who is very hard to get by on the heavy ground they were racing on.
Hi Cloy has won three times at longer than two and a
quarter miles. But each time it was in a small field and the pace was really
slow.
I wish I could say that I understand runner-up HI CLOY
(38). He's a four time Grade 1 winner that has somehow contrived to lose a dozen
times in a row. But clearly he still retains plenty of ability, as he showed by
keeping on strongly here. My best guess is that he wants the unusual combination
of a strong pace and a small field, or at least a field that's been depleted by
horses falling or pulling up.
JAZZ MESSENGER NOT FAR OFF BEST
It's hard to say anything new about either JAZZ MESSENGER
(40) or SWEET KILN (40) who fought out the finish of last week's Tara Hurdle at
Navan. Jazz Messenger is a mudlark that's won six of the last seven times he's
gone 12 furlongs or more on yielding or softer ground. Sweet Kiln is one of the
most consistent staying hurdlers in recent years. Give her two and a half miles
plus and she always runs here race.
Sweet Kiln's trailblazing style of running does make her
something of a sitting duck for a horse with a turn of foot like Jazz Messenger
and Paul Carberry exploited this. He held his mount up in second place and then
did the mare for speed close home, just as he had with Aitmatov on her previous
outing.
It was noticeable that Jazz Messenger was the only horse
comfortable with the pace Sweet Kiln was setting. He cruised in along behind her
while those behind him were all being niggled along to hold their positions.
Clearly he likes a strongly run race. So if it somehow came up soft in the
Champion Hurdle, a race that's normally strongly run, he'd have to be
considered.
It's interesting to note that Sweet Kiln has won the last
four times she's gone 2 miles three furlongs plus in fields of six or less but
has lost the last sixteen times she's run in bigger fields. It seems obvious
she's best dominating very small fields from the front. Jockeys like Paul
Carberry know that in bigger fields she'll always be going a step quicker and
they can simply sit in behind her and do her for speed close home.
TRAFFORD LAD NOT GRADE 1
The Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle did not
deserve its Grade 1 status this year. The winner Trafford Lad (35) clocked a
very slow time for the class. And this wasn't due to a slow early pace. They
reached the fifth flight in the race just a fifth of a second slower than
trailblazing Sweet Kiln did in the preceding contest but ended up clocking a
final time that was two and a half seconds slower. This is entirely because the
horses that fought out the finish tired visibly from the second last.
At the second last CUCHULAINS SON was in a close third
place and I reckon he may very well have ended up outstaying the two that fought
out the finish. I still regard him as very promising.
SNOWY MORNING PROBABLY NEEDS IT SOFT
It's hard to read much into the form of a high class horse
that is relatively lightly raced. Very often they're good enough to win minor
races against inferior opposition in circumstances that don't really suit them.
This, I suspect, is the case with SNOWY MORNING (38) who won a decent hurdle in
fast time at Fairyhouse last week.
Snowy Morning is a big, heavy topped horse who surely hits
the ground too hard to be at his best on fast going. So I think his previous win
in a maiden hurdle on firm ground is misleading. Against good opposition I feel
sure he needs cut in the ground to produce his best.
After all, Snowy Morning would have won all four times he
ran on yielding or softer ground in point to points if he hadn't tipped up when
looking a winner in one race and lost by half a length in another. He ran second
to inferior rivals the two times he met faster ground between the flags.
Under rules Snowy Morning has won six of his eight
completed starts on yielding or slower ground. That win in a moderate maiden
hurdle is his only success in five lifetime starts (including points) on faster
surfaces.
Snowy Morning won this race smoothly, and I'd bet on him
being able to run a bit faster over longer, especially back over fences which is
what he's built for. I see him winning a big race at some point this season when
he gets his ground.
HUGE RUN BY THE LISTENER
THE LISTENER (43) put up a brilliant display of front
running to take the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase in what I rate one of
the best performances over fences in recent seasons.
The Listener reached the eighth fence in 2 minutes 47.6
seconds by my estimates. In the 0-145 handicap chase on the same card the leader
got to the same point in 2 minutes 54.4 seconds.
Normally you would expect the horses to come home a good
deal more slowly in a race that's been comparatively strongly run. But The
Listener somehow contrived to finish out the last part of his race in a time 4.9
seconds quicker than the 0-145 handicap. In other words he ran significantly
faster both early and late. That is truly extraordinary. No wonder he was able
to rout a high class field by nineteen lengths.
Without the sectional times I might have concluded that the
reason The Listener ran so much faster than the winner of the 0-145 chase was
that they went really slow in the other contest and couldn't make up the lost
time. The sectional times tell me that even though they went much slower early
and thereby saved energy The Listener would still have been running away from
them in the second half of the race if they'd run together. That gives me
confidence to believe I'm right in using lines of form from the horses he beat
to award The Listener the biggest speed rating I've given a jumper all season.
This was The Listener's fastest ever run on the clock and
suggests he's actually better over two and a half miles than three. Indeed he's
now unbeaten in four starts at two and a half miles over fences. His only win in
seven tries over three miles or more was in last year's Lexus.
Actually I think The Listener does get three miles, as long
as he's not racing on a really stiff track like Cheltenham or Sandown. The only
reason he got tired and caught on the line in last year's Hennessy is that he
went too fast in the early stages. To be precise he reached the eighth jump in
that race a full 5.8 seconds sooner than he had in the Lexus when you adjust for
the difference in going. That's a huge difference.
I'm sure Daryl Jacob won't ask The Listener to go off so
fast in this year's Lexus. Indeed the race now looks to be at his mercy if my
ratings are any guide.
PERCE ROCK INSANELY OVER-PRICED AT 25-1 FOR ARKLE
This is rapidly becoming a vintage season for novice
chasers in Ireland according to my speed ratings. First we had Line Ball earning
a rating of 39. Then Freds Benefit eclipsed that with a rating of 40. Now PERCE
ROCK (41) has gone and bettered the both of them by winning a red hot novice
chase at Navan last Saturday. In doing so he equaled the biggest speed rating I
gave a novice chaser all last season. That's quite some feat for a horse making
its chasing debut and marks Perce Rock out as a truly outstanding novice chaser.
What made Perce Rock's effort all the more impressive is
that he was up against the very fast DARK ARTIST (38), a bold jumping novice who
set a ferocious pace when winning his latest start. Dark Artist did that once
more here and, as was the case last time, he soon stretched many of his rivals
into jumping errors. Dark Artist himself jumps so fast he sometimes gains ground
at a fence even when he makes a mistake.
Dark Artist had the field well strung out by the fourth
last at which point his jockey Paul Carberry took a look back over his shoulder
and clearly decided to give his mount a breather. This meant he had a bit up his
sleeve when Perce Rock moved up him. Dark Artist still looked the winner with
two to jump. But Perce Rock ground him down and then forged clear from the last
with the kind of sustained move only a high class horse can make.
Perce Rock had a severe test of his jumping here, being
asked to clear his fences at a speed normally only seen in Grade 1 novice
chases. He came through the test with flying colours. This being so I won't be
opposing him in the Durkan New Homes Novice Chase at Leopardstown over
Christmas. I think I may also indulge in the 25-1 totesport, Ladbrokes and Coral
are currently offering about his chances for the Arkle at Cheltenham. He looks
insanely overpriced at those odds to me.
Dark Artist is a horse I have a lot of time for. But he's
unlucky to be a novice in this particular season because there's always likely
to be one or two better runners in the Graded race he's going to be tackling
from now on. If he were mine I'd be switching him to handicaps against
experienced rivals. After all, he already jumps like he's been chasing for years
and his official rating of 128 understates his ability by a huge amount. Off
that sort of mark I can see him winning one of the top two mile handicaps.
SPIDERBACK WINS RED HOT JUVENILE HURDLE
You won't see many better juvenile hurdles than the one
SPIDERBACK (37) won at Clonmel. Watching the race I couldn't help thinking that
I may well have seen the Triumph Hurdle winner. The trouble is I couldn't decide
whether it was the first, second or third.
In a race run at a searching gallop on heavy ground
Spiderback made a classy looking move to break away from the field and open up a
lead of several lengths just before entering the straight. The smart second and
third INDIAN SPRING (37) and TEMLETT (36) wore away his lead relentlessly all
the way up the straight. But despite hitting the last two and tiring in the last
hundred yards Spiderback just held on.
It's very hard to figure out just what circumstances suit
Spiderback best as this was his first outing over hurdles. But it's interesting
to note that his best run as a two year old came on the only previous occasion
that he ran on heavy going. It may be that he's best on a testing surface. All I
can really say at this stage though is that he looks a major player in the
Durkan New homes Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Indian Spring will obviously be the one Spiderback has to
beat at Leopardstown, and he certainly produced a tremendous effort here,
finishing strongly and so nearly getting up. He's a classy performer, having got
to within seven lengths of the winner in the Prix du Jockey Club and run second
in a red hot juvenile hurdle run in Grade 2 class time at Auteuil on his
previous outing. I've little doubt that we'll be seeing him in several of the
top juvenile hurdles this Winter. And he's clearly got the ability to win one of
them..
Temlett is more of a traditional national hunt sort than
the first two, being more good-bodied and scopey. He sustained his run in
impressive style in a way that suggests he'll have no problems going longer than
two miles in due course. His connections feel he'd have been better suited by
faster ground, and his record certainly bears this out. He's lost the last nine
times he's on on ground slower than good but would have won the last four times
he's run on good or faster going if one photo had gone the other way. Having
said that, he ran so fast here I have to believe that soft ground isn't that
much of a problem for him over jumps. In any event, he looks a seriously good
prospect.
FORPADYDEPLASTERER ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE HURDLERS
FORPADYDEPLASTERER (37) won a strongly run maiden hurdle at
Navan in a time that indicates he's one of the better novice hurdlers. A big,
strong, tall three mile chasing type, Fordpadydeplasterer was always traveling
well and prevailed in what developed into a duel up the straight between him and
the runner up MICK THE MAN (36). He edged away in the closing stages, still
moving strongly.
This race was over two miles. But the early pace was very
strong, the going was heavy and the race was run on one of the stiffest tracks
in Britain or Ireland. So, given Forpadytheplasterer's physique, I'd say he's
much more a prospect for the Ballymore Properties Hurdle over two miles and five
furlongs than the Supreme Novices over two.
I'll probably be looking for something to beat
Forpadydeplasterer for speed in the Grade 2 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at
Leoparsdtown over Christmas. However he did run remarkably fast for a hurdling
debutante here. So even though the Leopardstown race is only two miles he might
just win it anyway.
Mick The Man (36) was also keeping on strongly and
maintained his record of always finishing in the first two on his ninth career
start. Like the winner, he should make a nice three mile chaser in time. Right
now I'd bet him to win pretty much any novice hurdle, preferably over longer.
Further back in the field I really liked the way THE
WANDERING MAN (31) ran. He was moving better than the first two when taking the
lead entering the straight and looked set to score. But I suspect he blew up
through lack of fitness on his first run in a year and that's why he made tired
looking mistakes at the last two. He was a smart Bumper horse and looks likely
to develop into an equally good hurdler.
VENALMAR SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN OVER THREE MILES
Within a few furlongs of the start it became obvious that
VENALMAR (37) was going better than anything in the maiden hurdle at Punchestown
last Sunday. He was always moving really smoothly about a third of the way down
the field in seventh or eight place, his bright colours, strapping physique and
long stride drawing attention to himself.
Venalmar continued to go well all the way round the home
turn but found himself boxed in for a furlong or so just as it looked like he
was going to cruise by everything.
Approaching the home straight a gap opened but Venalmar's
jockey took a tug to prevent his mount running off into a big lead. Clearly he
was concerned his mount might idle if he was in front for too long. Soon after
though he let Venalmar stride on and he soon opened up a break of a few lengths
with ease. Walking though the last made not the slightest dent in the big
horse's momentum and he rolled on towards the line to score full of run, looking
as though he'd be perfectly happy to go around again.
Clearly the step up to two and a half miles improved
Venalmar. Equally clearly he's a big, rather one-paced staying chasing sort
that's always going to be vulnerable over timber to horses with a better turn of
foot, especially on faster ground.
I'm confident that Venalmar will improve again when he's
stepped up to three miles. Whether or not he'll ever be effective on good or
faster ground I don't yet know. His size makes me cautious on this score though.
In any event he's surely going to be a seriously good novice chaser next year.
FREDS BENEFIT A FREAKISHLY GOOD NOVICE CHASER
FREDS BENEFIT (40) put up one of the best performances I've
ever seen from a novice chase debutante when cruising home at Clonmel.
In the early stages the other jockeys clearly decided that
Freds Benefit and Butter Bridge had gone off much too fast. Indeed when Butter
Bridge fell at the seventh Freds Benefit was left a full six seconds clear of
his pursuers. He came back to them, but that was simply because his jockey was
giving him a breather. He soon kicked on again and was going so well he took a
long look back over his shoulder entering the straight. He saw that he'd burned
off everything but LENREY (37) and allowed his mount to coast home in his own
time with the rest beaten a distance. It looked little more than a schooling
session for the winner but it earned him the biggest speed rating I've given a
novice chaser this season.
Freds Benefit is a big, very good-bodied horse. He jumped
like a stag here, standing off a long way and putting in some spectacular leaps
at some jumps while never touching a twig.
Seeing how big he is and given his one bad run on firm
going, it seems likely that Freds Benefit needs cut in the ground to produce his
best. I'm not sure though that two miles represents the limit of his stamina. He
was moving so strongly at the finish of this race that I suspect he'll get two
and a half miles like his half brother Sher Beau.
Like most short distance chasers that run really fast it
may be that Freds Benefit will prove to be best fresh. In any event he should be
able to win a Grade 1 sometime this season and looks an exciting prospect for
the years ahead.
Lenrey was very unlucky to come up against such a smart
horse on his chasing debut. He made a classy looking move to try and tackle
Freds Benefit in the straight. And, while he couldn't get the winner off the
bit, his effort did see him pull something like an extra 20 lengths clear of the
rest in around a quarter of a mile. Lenrey should be pretty much unstoppable in
an ordinary novice chase next time and looks set to win something decent at some
point this term.
CATCH ME IMPROVES
CATCH ME (39) clocked a seriously fast time when running
away from the useful Big Zeb (34) to win a Conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse. He's
always been a smart horse but improved slightly on anything he's done before
here.
If he'd jumped better and not been hampered a couple of
times Catch Me might well have won the last nine times he's run a mile and three
quarters or more. I have to say though his jumping still didn't impress me here.
He went through several flights and needs to learn to pick up his feet instead
of simply clattering through the jumps.
Trainer Edward O'Grady seems ambivalent about what trip
best suits Catch Me. And you can argue this one either way. His dam hasn't had
another foal to race yet. But she and her many siblings scored all their 22 flat
wins over trips short of a mile and a half. This would suggest that two miles
will prove Catch Me's best trip over hurdles. However the only sibling of the
dam to try hurdling ran second in an Italian Grade 1 event over two and a half
miles. In addition the other eight highest rated hurdlers by Catch Me's sire law
Society were all best over two and a half miles or more. This plus the way Catch
Me finished so full of run here prompts me to believe that he'll be best over
two and a half miles.
Catch Me looks set to win in at least Grade 2 company this
term, quite possibly Grade 1.
AITMATOV PROBABLY BEST AT LONGER TRIPS
You can easily go wrong trying to analyze the form of a
horse that's improved or deteriorated following a lay-off. Experience tells me
that you should treat it as a new horse and disregard its previous form. This
being so I'm a little wary of advancing any strong theories about AITMATOV (39)
who is now unbeaten in three starts this year following his narrow win over
SWEET KILN (39) in last Sunday's Hatton's Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse.
However, even with that caveat, I have to say that stamina
does look to be the strong suit of Aitmatov, as it so often is for horses with
(GER) after their names. German bred's like him are rightfully renowned for
their ability to outstay those bred elsewhere.
My speed ratings tell me that Aitmatov has run a pattern
class time on four of the seven occasions that he has run two and a quarter
miles or more. They also indicate that he's never even come close to running
that fast in fourteen tries at shorter trips.
I concede that I may be proved wrong but it looked to me
that it was raw stamina that enabled Aitmatov to get up and beat Sweet Kiln on
the line here. He was making no inroads on her lead for a long way previously.
Sweet Kiln ran faster with each successive start following
a long lay-off last season caused by splint problems. Since she hit her peak
though she's run nothing but good races in a long sequence of staying hurdles.
It's hard not to cheer for her when she goes into a clear lead every time, sets
a searching pace and rallies gamely when anything comes at her.
MUIRHEAD NOT THAT FAST
Turning into the straight in the Royal Bond Hurdle it
looked likely that the finish would be fought out by CORK ALL STAR (36) and
MEGANS JOY (34) as they were clearly going better than anything else. MUIRHEAD
(37) started to look a threat soon after. But he didn't seem likely to do any
better than split the pair approaching the last which Cork All Star approached
with a clear lead. That jump changed everything though because both Cork All
Star and Megans Joy ploughed through it. Cork All Star almost lost his back legs
on landing and Megans Joy pitched onto her nose, both horses losing considerable
momentum and ground. This left Muirhead clear, and there was no way he was going
to be caught on the short run in.
My speed ratings say that Muirhead was a sub-par winner of
the Royal Bond. So I'm inclined to believe what my eyes told me, namely that but
for the last jump Cork All Star would have been a clear winner with Megans Joy a
close third.
Cork All Star might well be unbeaten in all seven of his
starts if he hadn't pulled hard in the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown
Festival and blundered so badly at the last here. He showed here that he's
versatile as to ground because race times indicate it was genuinely heavy.
However I'd still prefer to bet him back on firmer going than this.
Megans Joy too looks to prefer a much faster surface, and
she remains the fastest novice hurdler on my speed ratings. She's got more size
and substance to her than most mares so I suspect she's capable of beating males
in top races over timber. Certainly she looks overpriced at 20-1 for the Supreme
Novices to me.
DRINMORE DIDN'T TELL US MUCH
It's hard to gain much insight from a slow run race when
you're making speed ratings. So I'm not sure this year's Drinmore Chase at
Fairyhouse told us much except that the winner SKY'S THE LIMIT (22) is a tough
horse to beat on genuinely heavy ground or on a really stiff track. He's now won
three of the four times he's run in these circumstances and finished a close
second to Garde 1 winner Strangely Brown in his sole defeat. But in a dozen
other starts in races worth 12,000 or more to the winner he's been beaten every
time. At Naas, Navan or Cheltenham or on heavy ground elsewhere I'd take him
into consideration. Otherwise I'd oppose him with confidence in pattern company.
The early pace was so slow that the entire field were
within a couple of lengths of each other after seven fences. From there the pace
quickened markedly and this gave several of the runners major problems. It's
expecting a lot from a novice chaser to ask it to jump stiff fences at full
speed out of really heavy ground. Any mistake they make is likely to cost them
serious ground or result in a fall. This being so it's not surprising that half
the field exited the race from the eighth fence on and the eventual third LINE
BALL (19) made a costly mistake three out. KAZAL was also bang there when he
blundered and fell at the same jump.
Line Ball remains the fastest novice chaser at two and a
half miles plus on my ratings, and I'll certainly be according Kazal great
respect if he gets the soft ground he seems to need next time. He ran a terrific
race for a horse being asked to make his chasing debut in a Grade 1.
EARTH MAGIC CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY
Experience tells me that when a horse earns the same speed
rating three times or more in a row it's almost certainly capable of running
faster. This is because the circumstances of races differ. If a horse can run
equally well three or more times it suggests it must have reserves of energy
it's tapping into in at least one of those races to show the same apparent level
of ability.
In the case of EARTH MAGIC (37) the reserves of energy
undoubtedly come from the horse's near bottomless stamina. This chasing sort
earned the same pattern class speed rating for the third successive time when
winning the Rock Of Cashel Hurdle at Thurles - a race that surely deserves
bigger prize money and pattern status seeing how often it produces a pattern
class winner.
Earth Magic set the pace up front, but with three quarters
of a mile to run it looked to be simply a case of when UNCLE JUNIOR (37) went
past. Uncle Junior is an even bigger, more deep chested chasing sort that was
simply cruising along in second place. LEADING RUN (36) was also moving
ominously well in the pack.
Earth Magic looked done when Leading Run went buy him on a
tight rein with two to jump and Uncle Junior moved alongside, also going better.
But, despite his rider having lost his whip he rallied to quickly head that one
at the last in unison with Uncle Junior and held on in a driving finish to dead
heat.
On his previous start at Navan Earth Magic had also looked
beat but rallied to come and win his race.
In the long run Earth Magic is going to be a candidate for
marathon chases when he switches to fences. Right now he looks a very good
proposition for a Graded novice hurdle over three miles.
If Uncle Junior had learned to settle and jump better in
his first two hurdles starts and one photo had gone the other way he might well
be unbeaten in all eight of his outings to date. He certainly looked likely to
win this outright when jumping the last upsides the winner. But despite
finishing full of run he couldn't quite get by.
Uncle Junior is a big old fashioned chasing sort that traveled
well throughout this race. I rather suspect that he'll be tackling the top three
mile chases for novices next term. This season I'm not fully convinced that he's
going to need three miles to produce his best. He must possess a fair bit of
speed to have moved as easily as he did so close to the strong early pace. So he
might yet develop into a solid candidate for the Ballymore Properties Novices
Hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m 5f. Realistically though he's always going to be
vulnerable over hurdles to more lightly built sorts that have a better turn of
foot.
Leading Run looked certain to win when cruising into the
lead at the second last. But he was joined by the dead heaters at the last and
lost momentum when Earth Magic jumped across him. He was tiring at the time
anyway and would simply have finished a little closer in the same position but
for the incident.
It's easy to jump to the conclusion that Leading Run is
some sort of a quitter seeing how quickly he emptied here. But it looked to me
that his jockey was holding him up to get the trip in a strongly run race and he
just didn't quite get home. Back over two and a half miles on a right-handed
track (he jumps right on left-handed courses) I can still see Leading Run
fulfilling the tremendous potential he showed when winning his first five starts
including the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival. It could be he needs
to be kept fresh to produce his best. His form does suggest this possibility.
However that may be I'll be bearing in mind how he looked like a Grade 1 horse
at the second last here before I oppose him in future.
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