IRELAND DECEMBER 07

 

Home
Up
INTRODUCTION
SPEED RATINGS
NICK'S PICK'S
WEEKLY REPORTS
LINKS
BLOODSTOCK
STANDARD TIMES
ARCHIVES

 

 

WHO SAYS NICKNAME NEEDS IT SOFT

NICKNAME (40) has long had a reputation for needing soft ground. But race times indicate the going was actually good when he scored his two Grade 1 wins in France. This being so it's not that surprising he was able to run close to his best off a lengthy lay-off when a length second to the smart MANSONY (40) in the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown.

True Nickname was under pressure in last place a long way out. But he was able to pull himself into the race in the closing stages on ground that was so fast it enabled the winner to clock the fastest time recorded over the course and distance in the last dozen years.

This run opens up new possibilities for Nickname. Okay he may get outpaced by the top horses over two miles on fast ground. But I see no reason why he shouldn't be effective on any going at two and a half on this run.

Mansony is seriously consistent at this sort of trip. He would have won his last seven Irish starts at distances short of two and a half miles but for tipping up on one occasion. His trainer says he prefers going right-handed which certainly seemed evident here as he jumped badly to the right at the last. This probably explains why he lost on his only UK visit so far at the tight left-handed oval of Aintree. He should do far better on his next journey to Britain when he shoots for the Victor Chandler Chase at right-handed Ascot.

SCHINDLERS HUNT (39) ran a big race to finish a close third. He is also very consistent at shorter trips. He looked tired in the closing stages when beaten by One Cool Cookie over two and a half miles and looks best at two miles to me. So far he's lost all five times he's run two and a quarter miles or more but might well have won the previous five times he'd gone shorter but for that almighty blunder which put him out of the race at the last Punchestown Festival. He's only just off the best at two miles on my ratings and might just improve enough to take another Grade 1.

 

KRANJI IMPRESSES

KRANJI (37) won a strongly run handicap chase over Christmas in a time that suggests he'll still be leniently weighted even with a big penalty for the win. He made all the running, jumped well and was still full of run in the closing stages as he strode clear for a six length win. He went three seconds faster to halfway than they did in the big novice chase on the same card but still came home 2.5 seconds faster than them over the last three fences

Kranji, like many front runners, may well be best dominating a smallish field. So far he's won all three times he's run in races of 2m 2f or less with 12 or fewer runners and lost all nine times he's gone in bigger fields. He'll be rested now and will probably be aimed at the Grand Annual. There will probably be too many runners in that race for him to get an easy lead. But I'd bet on him being tough to beat the next time he runs in a field of twelve or less.

 

FREDS BENEFIT SHOULD HAVE WON THIS

FREDS BENEFIT is the fastest novice chaser on my speed ratings and looked set to prove it as he cruised into the home straight in the Grade 2 Guiness Greenmount Park Novice Chase at Limerick. He'd set a strong pace, and, as was the case last time, his jockey had given his mount a breather and allowed his rivals to close to within a few lengths. But they were all being scrubbed along vigorously while Freds Benefit was still on the bridle. It looked clear he was set for a wide margin win. But then he measured the second last wrong and came down, leaving MERRY COWBOY (37) to score despite being almost legless through tiredness on the run in.

Merry Cowboy lost his hurdling debut. Since then he's won five of the six times he's run 2m 4f or 2m 5f on yielding or slower ground. Clearly he's useful in these circumstances though he was very luck here.

Freds Benefit would again have run a rating of around 40 if he'd stood up, so he is clearly something special. I wouldn't want to oppose him in the near future unless the going was good or faster, which I suspect would be too quick for him.

 

 

SKY'S THE LIMIT NOT THAT GOOD

Sectional times show that SKY'S THE LIMIT (30) put up a pretty weak performance to take the Grade 1 Durkan New Homes Novice Chase at Leopardstown. They went a full three seconds slower to the fifth fence in his race than in the later handicap but then came home 2.5 seconds slower over the last three fences. A proper Grade 1 horse should have had no difficulty gaining significantly on handicappers off such a slow pace. The fact that Sky's The Limit was unable to do so suggests he's nothing like as good as his record makes him look.

TRANQUIL SEA (36)

WON IN THE DARK (33)

 

OUR BEN IMPROVES OVER TWO MILES

Trainer Willie Mullins has long said that OUR BEN (40) doesn't quite get three miles. After last week's Hilly Way Chase at Cork it now seems evident the horse is actually best over two. He stuck close to the searching pace set by Central House, jumped well and kept going strongly all the way to the finish to produce his best ever performance.

It looks like Our Ben needs cut in the ground to be effective at short trips. He would now have won five of the six times he's gone two and a quarter miles or less on yielding or softer ground but for tipping up one time with the race one. His only real defeat was a two length loss to Mansony who is very hard to get by on the heavy ground they were racing on.

Hi Cloy has won three times at longer than two and a quarter miles. But each time it was in a small field and the pace was really slow.

I wish I could say that I understand runner-up HI CLOY (38). He's a four time Grade 1 winner that has somehow contrived to lose a dozen times in a row. But clearly he still retains plenty of ability, as he showed by keeping on strongly here. My best guess is that he wants the unusual combination of a strong pace and a small field, or at least a field that's been depleted by horses falling or pulling up.

 

JAZZ MESSENGER NOT FAR OFF BEST

It's hard to say anything new about either JAZZ MESSENGER (40) or SWEET KILN (40) who fought out the finish of last week's Tara Hurdle at Navan. Jazz Messenger is a mudlark that's won six of the last seven times he's gone 12 furlongs or more on yielding or softer ground. Sweet Kiln is one of the most consistent staying hurdlers in recent years. Give her two and a half miles plus and she always runs here race.

Sweet Kiln's trailblazing style of running does make her something of a sitting duck for a horse with a turn of foot like Jazz Messenger and Paul Carberry exploited this. He held his mount up in second place and then did the mare for speed close home, just as he had with Aitmatov on her previous outing.

It was noticeable that Jazz Messenger was the only horse comfortable with the pace Sweet Kiln was setting. He cruised in along behind her while those behind him were all being niggled along to hold their positions. Clearly he likes a strongly run race. So if it somehow came up soft in the Champion Hurdle, a race that's normally strongly run, he'd have to be considered.

It's interesting to note that Sweet Kiln has won the last four times she's gone 2 miles three furlongs plus in fields of six or less but has lost the last sixteen times she's run in bigger fields. It seems obvious she's best dominating very small fields from the front. Jockeys like Paul Carberry know that in bigger fields she'll always be going a step quicker and they can simply sit in behind her and do her for speed close home.

 

 

TRAFFORD LAD NOT GRADE 1

The Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle did not deserve its Grade 1 status this year. The winner Trafford Lad (35) clocked a very slow time for the class. And this wasn't due to a slow early pace. They reached the fifth flight in the race just a fifth of a second slower than trailblazing Sweet Kiln did in the preceding contest but ended up clocking a final time that was two and a half seconds slower. This is entirely because the horses that fought out the finish tired visibly from the second last.

At the second last CUCHULAINS SON was in a close third place and I reckon he may very well have ended up outstaying the two that fought out the finish. I still regard him as very promising.

 

 

SNOWY MORNING PROBABLY NEEDS IT SOFT

It's hard to read much into the form of a high class horse that is relatively lightly raced. Very often they're good enough to win minor races against inferior opposition in circumstances that don't really suit them. This, I suspect, is the case with SNOWY MORNING (38) who won a decent hurdle in fast time at Fairyhouse last week.

Snowy Morning is a big, heavy topped horse who surely hits the ground too hard to be at his best on fast going. So I think his previous win in a maiden hurdle on firm ground is misleading. Against good opposition I feel sure he needs cut in the ground to produce his best.

After all, Snowy Morning would have won all four times he ran on yielding or softer ground in point to points if he hadn't tipped up when looking a winner in one race and lost by half a length in another. He ran second to inferior rivals the two times he met faster ground between the flags.

Under rules Snowy Morning has won six of his eight completed starts on yielding or slower ground. That win in a moderate maiden hurdle is his only success in five lifetime starts (including points) on faster surfaces.

Snowy Morning won this race smoothly, and I'd bet on him being able to run a bit faster over longer, especially back over fences which is what he's built for. I see him winning a big race at some point this season when he gets his ground.

 

HUGE RUN BY THE LISTENER

THE LISTENER (43) put up a brilliant display of front running to take the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase in what I rate one of the best performances over fences in recent seasons.

The Listener reached the eighth fence in 2 minutes 47.6 seconds by my estimates. In the 0-145 handicap chase on the same card the leader got to the same point in 2 minutes 54.4 seconds.

Normally you would expect the horses to come home a good deal more slowly in a race that's been comparatively strongly run. But The Listener somehow contrived to finish out the last part of his race in a time 4.9 seconds quicker than the 0-145 handicap. In other words he ran significantly faster both early and late. That is truly extraordinary. No wonder he was able to rout a high class field by nineteen lengths.

Without the sectional times I might have concluded that the reason The Listener ran so much faster than the winner of the 0-145 chase was that they went really slow in the other contest and couldn't make up the lost time. The sectional times tell me that even though they went much slower early and thereby saved energy The Listener would still have been running away from them in the second half of the race if they'd run together. That gives me confidence to believe I'm right in using lines of form from the horses he beat to award The Listener the biggest speed rating I've given a jumper all season.

This was The Listener's fastest ever run on the clock and suggests he's actually better over two and a half miles than three. Indeed he's now unbeaten in four starts at two and a half miles over fences. His only win in seven tries over three miles or more was in last year's Lexus.

Actually I think The Listener does get three miles, as long as he's not racing on a really stiff track like Cheltenham or Sandown. The only reason he got tired and caught on the line in last year's Hennessy is that he went too fast in the early stages. To be precise he reached the eighth jump in that race a full 5.8 seconds sooner than he had in the Lexus when you adjust for the difference in going. That's a huge difference.

I'm sure Daryl Jacob won't ask The Listener to go off so fast in this year's Lexus. Indeed the race now looks to be at his mercy if my ratings are any guide.

 

 

PERCE ROCK INSANELY OVER-PRICED AT 25-1 FOR ARKLE

This is rapidly becoming a vintage season for novice chasers in Ireland according to my speed ratings. First we had Line Ball earning a rating of 39. Then Freds Benefit eclipsed that with a rating of 40. Now PERCE ROCK (41) has gone and bettered the both of them by winning a red hot novice chase at Navan last Saturday. In doing so he equaled the biggest speed rating I gave a novice chaser all last season. That's quite some feat for a horse making its chasing debut and marks Perce Rock out as a truly outstanding novice chaser.

What made Perce Rock's effort all the more impressive is that he was up against the very fast DARK ARTIST (38), a bold jumping novice who set a ferocious pace when winning his latest start. Dark Artist did that once more here and, as was the case last time, he soon stretched many of his rivals into jumping errors. Dark Artist himself jumps so fast he sometimes gains ground at a fence even when he makes a mistake.

Dark Artist had the field well strung out by the fourth last at which point his jockey Paul Carberry took a look back over his shoulder and clearly decided to give his mount a breather. This meant he had a bit up his sleeve when Perce Rock moved up him. Dark Artist still looked the winner with two to jump. But Perce Rock ground him down and then forged clear from the last with the kind of sustained move only a high class horse can make.

Perce Rock had a severe test of his jumping here, being asked to clear his fences at a speed normally only seen in Grade 1 novice chases. He came through the test with flying colours. This being so I won't be opposing him in the Durkan New Homes Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. I think I may also indulge in the 25-1 totesport, Ladbrokes and Coral are currently offering about his chances for the Arkle at Cheltenham. He looks insanely overpriced at those odds to me.

Dark Artist is a horse I have a lot of time for. But he's unlucky to be a novice in this particular season because there's always likely to be one or two better runners in the Graded race he's going to be tackling from now on. If he were mine I'd be switching him to handicaps against experienced rivals. After all, he already jumps like he's been chasing for years and his official rating of 128 understates his ability by a huge amount. Off that sort of mark I can see him winning one of the top two mile handicaps.

 

SPIDERBACK WINS RED HOT JUVENILE HURDLE

You won't see many better juvenile hurdles than the one SPIDERBACK (37) won at Clonmel. Watching the race I couldn't help thinking that I may well have seen the Triumph Hurdle winner. The trouble is I couldn't decide whether it was the first, second or third.

In a race run at a searching gallop on heavy ground Spiderback made a classy looking move to break away from the field and open up a lead of several lengths just before entering the straight. The smart second and third INDIAN SPRING (37) and TEMLETT (36) wore away his lead relentlessly all the way up the straight. But despite hitting the last two and tiring in the last hundred yards Spiderback just held on.

It's very hard to figure out just what circumstances suit Spiderback best as this was his first outing over hurdles. But it's interesting to note that his best run as a two year old came on the only previous occasion that he ran on heavy going. It may be that he's best on a testing surface. All I can really say at this stage though is that he looks a major player in the Durkan New homes Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.

Indian Spring will obviously be the one Spiderback has to beat at Leopardstown, and he certainly produced a tremendous effort here, finishing strongly and so nearly getting up. He's a classy performer, having got to within seven lengths of the winner in the Prix du Jockey Club and run second in a red hot juvenile hurdle run in Grade 2 class time at Auteuil on his previous outing. I've little doubt that we'll be seeing him in several of the top juvenile hurdles this Winter. And he's clearly got the ability to win one of them..

Temlett is more of a traditional national hunt sort than the first two, being more good-bodied and scopey. He sustained his run in impressive style in a way that suggests he'll have no problems going longer than two miles in due course. His connections feel he'd have been better suited by faster ground, and his record certainly bears this out. He's lost the last nine times he's on on ground slower than good but would have won the last four times he's run on good or faster going if one photo had gone the other way. Having said that, he ran so fast here I have to believe that soft ground isn't that much of a problem for him over jumps. In any event, he looks a seriously good prospect.

 

FORPADYDEPLASTERER ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE HURDLERS

FORPADYDEPLASTERER (37) won a strongly run maiden hurdle at Navan in a time that indicates he's one of the better novice hurdlers. A big, strong, tall three mile chasing type, Fordpadydeplasterer was always traveling well and prevailed in what developed into a duel up the straight between him and the runner up MICK THE MAN (36). He edged away in the closing stages, still moving strongly.

This race was over two miles. But the early pace was very strong, the going was heavy and the race was run on one of the stiffest tracks in Britain or Ireland. So, given Forpadytheplasterer's physique, I'd say he's much more a prospect for the Ballymore Properties Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs than the Supreme Novices over two.

I'll probably be looking for something to beat Forpadydeplasterer for speed in the Grade 2 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leoparsdtown over Christmas. However he did run remarkably fast for a hurdling debutante here. So even though the Leopardstown race is only two miles he might just win it anyway.

Mick The Man (36) was also keeping on strongly and maintained his record of always finishing in the first two on his ninth career start. Like the winner, he should make a nice three mile chaser in time. Right now I'd bet him to win pretty much any novice hurdle, preferably over longer.

Further back in the field I really liked the way THE WANDERING MAN (31) ran. He was moving better than the first two when taking the lead entering the straight and looked set to score. But I suspect he blew up through lack of fitness on his first run in a year and that's why he made tired looking mistakes at the last two. He was a smart Bumper horse and looks likely to develop into an equally good hurdler.

 

VENALMAR SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN OVER THREE MILES

Within a few furlongs of the start it became obvious that VENALMAR (37) was going better than anything in the maiden hurdle at Punchestown last Sunday. He was always moving really smoothly about a third of the way down the field in seventh or eight place, his bright colours, strapping physique and long stride drawing attention to himself.

Venalmar continued to go well all the way round the home turn but found himself boxed in for a furlong or so just as it looked like he was going to cruise by everything.

Approaching the home straight a gap opened but Venalmar's jockey took a tug to prevent his mount running off into a big lead. Clearly he was concerned his mount might idle if he was in front for too long. Soon after though he let Venalmar stride on and he soon opened up a break of a few lengths with ease. Walking though the last made not the slightest dent in the big horse's momentum and he rolled on towards the line to score full of run, looking as though he'd be perfectly happy to go around again.

Clearly the step up to two and a half miles improved Venalmar. Equally clearly he's a big, rather one-paced staying chasing sort that's always going to be vulnerable over timber to horses with a better turn of foot, especially on faster ground.

I'm confident that Venalmar will improve again when he's stepped up to three miles. Whether or not he'll ever be effective on good or faster ground I don't yet know. His size makes me cautious on this score though. In any event he's surely going to be a seriously good novice chaser next year.

 

 

 

FREDS BENEFIT A FREAKISHLY GOOD NOVICE CHASER

FREDS BENEFIT (40) put up one of the best performances I've ever seen from a novice chase debutante when cruising home at Clonmel.

In the early stages the other jockeys clearly decided that Freds Benefit and Butter Bridge had gone off much too fast. Indeed when Butter Bridge fell at the seventh Freds Benefit was left a full six seconds clear of his pursuers. He came back to them, but that was simply because his jockey was giving him a breather. He soon kicked on again and was going so well he took a long look back over his shoulder entering the straight. He saw that he'd burned off everything but LENREY (37) and allowed his mount to coast home in his own time with the rest beaten a distance. It looked little more than a schooling session for the winner but it earned him the biggest speed rating I've given a novice chaser this season.

Freds Benefit is a big, very good-bodied horse. He jumped like a stag here, standing off a long way and putting in some spectacular leaps at some jumps while never touching a twig.

Seeing how big he is and given his one bad run on firm going, it seems likely that Freds Benefit needs cut in the ground to produce his best. I'm not sure though that two miles represents the limit of his stamina. He was moving so strongly at the finish of this race that I suspect he'll get two and a half miles like his half brother Sher Beau.

Like most short distance chasers that run really fast it may be that Freds Benefit will prove to be best fresh. In any event he should be able to win a Grade 1 sometime this season and looks an exciting prospect for the years ahead.

Lenrey was very unlucky to come up against such a smart horse on his chasing debut. He made a classy looking move to try and tackle Freds Benefit in the straight. And, while he couldn't get the winner off the bit, his effort did see him pull something like an extra 20 lengths clear of the rest in around a quarter of a mile. Lenrey should be pretty much unstoppable in an ordinary novice chase next time and looks set to win something decent at some point this term.

 

CATCH ME IMPROVES

CATCH ME (39) clocked a seriously fast time when running away from the useful Big Zeb (34) to win a Conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse. He's always been a smart horse but improved slightly on anything he's done before here.

If he'd jumped better and not been hampered a couple of times Catch Me might well have won the last nine times he's run a mile and three quarters or more. I have to say though his jumping still didn't impress me here. He went through several flights and needs to learn to pick up his feet instead of simply clattering through the jumps.

Trainer Edward O'Grady seems ambivalent about what trip best suits Catch Me. And you can argue this one either way. His dam hasn't had another foal to race yet. But she and her many siblings scored all their 22 flat wins over trips short of a mile and a half. This would suggest that two miles will prove Catch Me's best trip over hurdles. However the only sibling of the dam to try hurdling ran second in an Italian Grade 1 event over two and a half miles. In addition the other eight highest rated hurdlers by Catch Me's sire law Society were all best over two and a half miles or more. This plus the way Catch Me finished so full of run here prompts me to believe that he'll be best over two and a half miles.

Catch Me looks set to win in at least Grade 2 company this term, quite possibly Grade 1.

 

AITMATOV PROBABLY BEST AT LONGER TRIPS

You can easily go wrong trying to analyze the form of a horse that's improved or deteriorated following a lay-off. Experience tells me that you should treat it as a new horse and disregard its previous form. This being so I'm a little wary of advancing any strong theories about AITMATOV (39) who is now unbeaten in three starts this year following his narrow win over SWEET KILN (39) in last Sunday's Hatton's Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse.

However, even with that caveat, I have to say that stamina does look to be the strong suit of Aitmatov, as it so often is for horses with (GER) after their names. German bred's like him are rightfully renowned for their ability to outstay those bred elsewhere.

My speed ratings tell me that Aitmatov has run a pattern class time on four of the seven occasions that he has run two and a quarter miles or more. They also indicate that he's never even come close to running that fast in fourteen tries at shorter trips.

I concede that I may be proved wrong but it looked to me that it was raw stamina that enabled Aitmatov to get up and beat Sweet Kiln on the line here. He was making no inroads on her lead for a long way previously.

Sweet Kiln ran faster with each successive start following a long lay-off last season caused by splint problems. Since she hit her peak though she's run nothing but good races in a long sequence of staying hurdles. It's hard not to cheer for her when she goes into a clear lead every time, sets a searching pace and rallies gamely when anything comes at her.

 

MUIRHEAD NOT THAT FAST

Turning into the straight in the Royal Bond Hurdle it looked likely that the finish would be fought out by CORK ALL STAR (36) and MEGANS JOY (34) as they were clearly going better than anything else. MUIRHEAD (37) started to look a threat soon after. But he didn't seem likely to do any better than split the pair approaching the last which Cork All Star approached with a clear lead. That jump changed everything though because both Cork All Star and Megans Joy ploughed through it. Cork All Star almost lost his back legs on landing and Megans Joy pitched onto her nose, both horses losing considerable momentum and ground. This left Muirhead clear, and there was no way he was going to be caught on the short run in.

My speed ratings say that Muirhead was a sub-par winner of the Royal Bond. So I'm inclined to believe what my eyes told me, namely that but for the last jump Cork All Star would have been a clear winner with Megans Joy a close third.

Cork All Star might well be unbeaten in all seven of his starts if he hadn't pulled hard in the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival and blundered so badly at the last here. He showed here that he's versatile as to ground because race times indicate it was genuinely heavy. However I'd still prefer to bet him back on firmer going than this.

Megans Joy too looks to prefer a much faster surface, and she remains the fastest novice hurdler on my speed ratings. She's got more size and substance to her than most mares so I suspect she's capable of beating males in top races over timber. Certainly she looks overpriced at 20-1 for the Supreme Novices to me.

 

DRINMORE DIDN'T TELL US MUCH

It's hard to gain much insight from a slow run race when you're making speed ratings. So I'm not sure this year's Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse told us much except that the winner SKY'S THE LIMIT (22) is a tough horse to beat on genuinely heavy ground or on a really stiff track. He's now won three of the four times he's run in these circumstances and finished a close second to Garde 1 winner Strangely Brown in his sole defeat. But in a dozen other starts in races worth 12,000 or more to the winner he's been beaten every time. At Naas, Navan or Cheltenham or on heavy ground elsewhere I'd take him into consideration. Otherwise I'd oppose him with confidence in pattern company.

The early pace was so slow that the entire field were within a couple of lengths of each other after seven fences. From there the pace quickened markedly and this gave several of the runners major problems. It's expecting a lot from a novice chaser to ask it to jump stiff fences at full speed out of really heavy ground. Any mistake they make is likely to cost them serious ground or result in a fall. This being so it's not surprising that half the field exited the race from the eighth fence on and the eventual third LINE BALL (19) made a costly mistake three out. KAZAL was also bang there when he blundered and fell at the same jump.

Line Ball remains the fastest novice chaser at two and a half miles plus on my ratings, and I'll certainly be according Kazal great respect if he gets the soft ground he seems to need next time. He ran a terrific race for a horse being asked to make his chasing debut in a Grade 1.

 

EARTH MAGIC CAN WIN IN PATTERN COMPANY

Experience tells me that when a horse earns the same speed rating three times or more in a row it's almost certainly capable of running faster. This is because the circumstances of races differ. If a horse can run equally well three or more times it suggests it must have reserves of energy it's tapping into in at least one of those races to show the same apparent level of ability.

In the case of EARTH MAGIC (37) the reserves of energy undoubtedly come from the horse's near bottomless stamina. This chasing sort earned the same pattern class speed rating for the third successive time when winning the Rock Of Cashel Hurdle at Thurles - a race that surely deserves bigger prize money and pattern status seeing how often it produces a pattern class winner.

Earth Magic set the pace up front, but with three quarters of a mile to run it looked to be simply a case of when UNCLE JUNIOR (37) went past. Uncle Junior is an even bigger, more deep chested chasing sort that was simply cruising along in second place. LEADING RUN (36) was also moving ominously well in the pack.

Earth Magic looked done when Leading Run went buy him on a tight rein with two to jump and Uncle Junior moved alongside, also going better. But, despite his rider having lost his whip he rallied to quickly head that one at the last in unison with Uncle Junior and held on in a driving finish to dead heat.

On his previous start at Navan Earth Magic had also looked beat but rallied to come and win his race.

In the long run Earth Magic is going to be a candidate for marathon chases when he switches to fences. Right now he looks a very good proposition for a Graded novice hurdle over three miles.

If Uncle Junior had learned to settle and jump better in his first two hurdles starts and one photo had gone the other way he might well be unbeaten in all eight of his outings to date. He certainly looked likely to win this outright when jumping the last upsides the winner. But despite finishing full of run he couldn't quite get by.

Uncle Junior is a big old fashioned chasing sort that traveled well throughout this race. I rather suspect that he'll be tackling the top three mile chases for novices next term. This season I'm not fully convinced that he's going to need three miles to produce his best. He must possess a fair bit of speed to have moved as easily as he did so close to the strong early pace. So he might yet develop into a solid candidate for the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m 5f. Realistically though he's always going to be vulnerable over hurdles to more lightly built sorts that have a better turn of foot.

Leading Run looked certain to win when cruising into the lead at the second last. But he was joined by the dead heaters at the last and lost momentum when Earth Magic jumped across him. He was tiring at the time anyway and would simply have finished a little closer in the same position but for the incident.

It's easy to jump to the conclusion that Leading Run is some sort of a quitter seeing how quickly he emptied here. But it looked to me that his jockey was holding him up to get the trip in a strongly run race and he just didn't quite get home. Back over two and a half miles on a right-handed track (he jumps right on left-handed courses) I can still see Leading Run fulfilling the tremendous potential he showed when winning his first five starts including the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival. It could be he needs to be kept fresh to produce his best. His form does suggest this possibility. However that may be I'll be bearing in mind how he looked like a Grade 1 horse at the second last here before I oppose him in future.