DON'T GIVE UP ON SOLWHIT

SOLWHIT (17) Had looked a very promising novice hurdler before losing a Listed race narrowly at Thurles last week. But I wouldn't give too much weight to his loss there. I've seen horses canter down to the start faster than the early pace they were going in the contest. And when the gallop picked up Solwhit clearly had problems jumping the hurdles at the pace they were traveling. He scrambled over the remaining jumps and gradually closed on the winner but couldn't quite get there in time despite moving strongly all the way to the line.

Solwhit won Leopardstown's November handicap over two miles on the flat on soft ground. Clearly two miles over hurdles off a slow pace is not a sufficient stamina test for him. Upped in trip he could well turn out to be a solid Ballymore Properties candidate.

PANDORAMA PROBABLY NEEDS A REST

I think that it's a fair bet PANDORAMA (36) 'bounced' due to the effects of two very fast wins back to back when running a disappointing second in the Grade 1 Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Hurdle at Navan. He'd earned the biggest speed rating I've given a hurdling debutante in years then the biggest rating any novice hurdler has earned from me in ages when scoring next time. It's perfectly normal for a horse to regress in form when not rested after two such incredibly fast efforts.

Pandorama has a huge reputation after his string of wide margin wins in very fast time. So it's not surprising that he scared off all but two rivals.

For a long way it looked like it was going to be business as usual for Pandorama as he cruised along in the lead. But MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (39) was never far behind and simply ran away from him two out when shaken up.

The going was very slow indeed at Navan. This made it hard for the jockeys to judge the right pace they could ask their mounts to go without tiring badly late. As it turned out the only race where they got it right was the big one, and that's probably because there were just three runners which resulted in an early pace which would have been too slow on almost any other day. Here it was just right. In fact it was slow enough to allow Mikael D'Haguenet to produce the best finishing kick shown by any winner on the card.

I suspect that if they'd gone too fast early, as they did in all the other races bar the Bumper, Pandorama would have been able to use his great stamina to grind out another win here. As it was he got done for a turn of foot by a clearly very smart winner.

Pandorama overjumped a couple of the hurdles and landed too steeply when asked to go for a big one two out. But I don't think his jumping caused him to lose. I think he's simply had a bit too much hard racing and is now in need of a break.

I still believe that Pandorama is a truly exceptional talent. I rate him the best novice hurdler seen in quite some time. With his big stride he's almost certainly always going to need some cut in the ground. It's also obvious that he wants three miles plus and fences before he'll be able to fulfill all his potential. But you still won't find me opposing him if he's given a break before his next run and gets some cut in the ground.

Mikael D'Haguenet is the third winner to be produced by his dam. The other two won over nothing but fences and Mikael D'Haguenet's future clearly lies over the bigger jumps as well. He's a good-bodied, tall, deep chested, long striding chasing sort that looks to be crying out for three miles already. However the turn of foot he showed here suggests to me that it's possible he'll be able to handle faster ground than the soft and heavy he's tried so far. Though I have to add I'd prefer to see him over three miles on a quicker surface. His trainer, Willie Mullins is as reluctant to run Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham as Noel Meade is with Pandorama. He's expressed concern about how well such a heavy-topped horse would come down the hill, especially on fast ground.

It is rather sad that changing weather patterns plus the improved drainage system at Cheltenham keep smart horses like Mikael D'Haguenet and Pandorama away from the Cheltenham Festival nowadays. Over time I think the fast ground which invariably prevails at the big meeting these days will dent its prestige and raise the profile of the other Spring Festival meetings. But this is no bad thing. There are plenty of other opportunities for horses like Mikael D'Haguenet and Pandorama without asking them to take on the firm ground specialists at Cheltenham.

AITMATOV LOOKS BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

AITMATOV (19) put up a really odd looking performance in the Grade 2 Tara Hurdle at Navan last Sunday. He simply could not go the scorching early pace set by GIVE IT TIME (14). He jumped the fifth last, just seven furlongs from the finish, no less than 10.8 seconds behind the leader. But he then proceeded to run on like a train up the straight, far too late, to take second while finishing full of running.

It is tempting to assume that Aitmatov wants to go back up to three miles. But I suspect he was simply doing a somewhat more extreme version of what he normally does thanks to the terrific early gallop. He normally comes from far back anyway. He came from further back this time because they were going so fast early on.

In fact Give It Time reached the fifth hurdle 3.6 seconds sooner than they did in the Grade 1 novice hurdle on the same card. That was way too fast, which is why they ran the rest of the race 12.6 seconds slower than the novices. This is the norm for jump races where the leaders go off too fast. The pace collapses and the final time is really slow.

Horses that come from out of the clouds like Aitmatov tend to be best in small fields. In bigger fields they can encounter traffic problems when trying to find a run.

Aitmatov did win a maiden hurdle and a couple of flat races in big fields. But over hurdles, outside that maiden win his record in fields of nine or more shows no wins from eight attempts. He's won five of his ten hurdles starts in fields of eight or less and finished second to smart rivals in four of his losses. Basically any time the field has been small enough to enable Aitmatov to be within hailing distance of the leaders at the last he has won.

As I've mentioned, Give It Time went off at a terrific gallop. She jumped the fifth last with a lead of 7.2 seconds. But she tired badly from the second last to finish a distant third.

Any horse that can show the kind of pace Give It Time did here has to be a threat to win something decent. And I note with interest that Give It Time has won the most recent three times she's completed the course in hurdle races at trips short of two and a half miles. One of her wins was in Listed company.

Fourth placed CLOPF (10) still has me scratching my head. It looked like he failed to get home here after traveling well for a long way. This has prompted me to come up with yet another theory to explain his in and out form. My theory is that he is best over trips less than two and a half miles on tracks not described as 'testing' by the Racing Post that are twelve furlongs or less in circumference. He would have won all seven times he's run in these relatively untaxing circumstances but for falling with a clear lead at the last when moving strongly in a Grade 2 novice chase last term.

The fly in the ointment for this theory is that Grade 1 win scored by Clopf at the Punchestown Festival. But that was on lightning fast ground over the minimum distance, so it doesn't contradict my theory too strongly. Therefore the next time Clopf runs in what I deem to be his favoured circumstances I'll be expecting him to win.

The winner SHAKERVILZ (21) benefited from a smart ride by Paul Townend. Townend had shown a shrewd judgement of pace on Mikael D'Haguenet in the big novice hurdle when not allowing Pandorama to establish a clear lead at what was an ordinary gallop. Here he clearly realised that Give It Time was going too fast when easing his mount back into a distant second after dueling with that one for the first couple of hurdles. The move paid off as Shakervilz was able to inherit the lead when Give It Time stopped and had enough of a cushion to withstand Aitmatov's late charge with half a dozen lengths to spare.

I don't know how good Shakervilz is yet. But I note with interest that he's lost both times he's run at Punchestown and won all four of his hurdles starts elsewhere. It could be there's something about Ireland's top jumps track that he dislikes.

SCHINDLERS HUNT MAY DISLIKE TRAVELLING

SCHINDLERS HUNT (41) is a horse that's not easy to understand. Some days he runs like a champion. Other days he runs dreadfully. Last week was one of the better days for this big, strong, good looking sort when he powered away to win a very strongly run Hilly Way Chase in seriously fast time by sixteen lengths.

There are a couple of things which seem obvious about Schindlers Hunt. The first is that all his wins under rules have come in fields of a dozen or more. It may well be that he's best when he can find plenty of cover. Or it could be that he needs the strong pace that big fields tend to generate.

The second obvious thing about Schindlers Hunt is that he has run three clunkers when he's been asked to travel abroad. In fact all his wins have come at tracks relatively close to his home base in County Carlow. Toss out runs at tracks more than a couple of hours distant from his stables and his other tries in fields of twelve or more show five wins from his last six attempts.

I don't know whether I'm right about Schindlers Hunt. But until he proves me wrong I'm going to side against him when he travels far from home or runs in small fields.

WANANGO (39) was on his way to running a big race when falling at the last when chasing the winner while well clear of the rest. He'd actually looked rather stretched to scramble over several jumps beforehand and I now suspect he may be best over the easier fences that are found in Britain seeing how he streaked home on his second start last term at Uttoxeter.

Wanango is obviously best fresh. He has yet to win after his second start of the season. This was his first. If he's shipped to Britain next time out I'll be very interested in his chances.

25-1 MADE IN TAIPAN FOR ARKLE WAY TOO BIG

The 25-1 being offered by Paddy Power and Totesport about MADE IN TAIPAN (40) for the Arkle looks way too big to me following his impressive win at Navan. He set a strong pace, jumped like a buck and was still moving strongly at the finish.

Made Like A Taipan went about as fast as a novice chaser can go here. So I won't be opposing him when he takes on Tatenen at Leopardstown over Christmas. He's a much more good-bodied and robust type than the Paul Nicholls' horse and far more the finished article. Tatenen is still immature and has looked novicey over his fences.

Okay there is probably always going to be the need for Made In Taipan to go left-handed. He's lost all six hurdles and chases he's contested on right-handed tracks and actually ran out in one of them. His only loss if five tries on left handed tracks at less than two and a quarter miles came when he ran second to the smart River Liane. That was over hurdles. Over fences I think he's a better horse and will prove tough to beat over two miles.

With two to jump at Navan it looked like Made In Taipan was going to have a tough time winning because FOLLOW THE PLAN (39) had closed up from a distant third to a close second. He has the build and pedigree of a three miler and has in fact already won a point to point over that trip. The searching pace had pulled him into the race and with two to jump he was fairly cruising. But Davy Russell on board Made In Taipan took a look across at his new challenger and decided he didn't need to go for his stick. Indeed it wasn't until inside the final furlong that he started waving his whip at Made In Taipan, and that was just to ensure he kept up the gallop. He was never in any real danger.

That said, this was a big run by Follow The Plan over what was clearly an inadequate distance.

I can see the logic of sticking to two miles with Follow The Plan and targeting the Arkle. After all that race is normally very strongly run and often falls to a horse that usually requires a longer trip. However my feeling is that on faster ground Follow The Plan is going to flounder over two miles and is going to be needing three miles again sooner rather than later.

FINANCIAL REWARD (24) passed the post 8.8 seconds later than the winner back in third. In other words he got beat 35 lengths if you count a length as being a quarter of a second as they do in British jump races. However he still ran a seriously good race because he took the winner on up front and went with him for an awfully long way.

On the far side Financial Reward hit the fifth fence hard as he tired to jump it as boldly as the winner. He lost no ground but it must surely have cost him a lot of energy. By the time they reached the straight he was tiring. And at the second last he was basically legless, walked though the jump and was very nearly down.

It seems pretty clear from Financial Reward's record that he is a pacey sort with clear stamina limits. It does look like he needs a pretty tight track in order to last home. So far he has run six times around tracks less than a mile and a half in circumference. He won four of those six times. One of his losses was a half length defeat in a sprint. Another was a fifth place finish over a mile and a half which may be a bit far for him on the flat.

In an ordinary novice chase over two miles on a tight track I'd be wary of opposing Financial Reward.

DONNAS PALM PROBABLY THE BEST HORSE IN ROYAL BOND

The Royal Bond is supposed to be a two mile hurdle. But it turned into a two furlong sprint this year thanks to the crawl of a pace the field went in the early stages. They were almost walking up to halfway where COUSIN VINNY (22) went on and made it something vaguely like a gallop from there. But it was only up the straight that the field really started motoring and from there they were really flying, coming home two and a half seconds quicker over the last two than they did in the good Grade 3 juvenile hurdle earlier in the day.

In the circumstances it was no big shock that HURRICANE FLY (23) came out on top. He'd been good enough to beat the Group 1 winners Literato and Spirit One in a red hot Listed race on the flat over a mile. And he was able to use his flat race speed to good effect in the finish here.

Clearly Hurricane Fly is a useful sort. His only loss over jumps in four tries to date came when he ran second in a Grade 1 race. But I'd be surprised if Donnas Palm doesn't turn out to be the best horse in the race. For a proper jumping sort he did very well in the circumstances to get within a neck of the winner. In a more normally run race I think he would have retained his unbeaten record.

Donnas Palm clocked a pattern class time when hosing up on his hurdling debut on his previous start. There he came off a strong pace and cruised clear on the run in, where his jockey was able to take several long looks back over his shoulder. He could certainly have run faster if he'd been ridden out. He had won his sole previous start in a Bumper in similar fashion and is clearly a horse with a good deal of potential.

Cousin Vinny did very well to go so close in a Grade 1 on his hurdling debut, especially seeing that he was forced to go on so far out. He'd come from off the pace to win previously, showing a terrific turn of foot to do so. I'm not yet convinced he's going to prove as good over hurdles as he was in Bumper races. But he does look to have grown a little last year and could hardly have done more on his hurdling debut.

FORPADYDEPLASTERER SHOULD STAY THREE MILES

I can understand why trainer Thomas Cooper is torn between targets at two miles and three miles after the second place finish of FORPADYDEPLASTERER (34) in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices Chase. My own feeling is that three miles is going to prove more his thing as he's such a big strong horse whose only brother is a three mile chaser.

Forpadydeplasterer jumped well in the lead and slowly wound the pace up from halfway. My suspicion is that if he'd gone faster right from the start his excellent jumping would have had his rivals in trouble some way before the finish. As the race was run he proved vulnerable to the sustained finish of TRAFFORD LAD (36).

I like the way that Forpadydeplasterer has already learned to go in short or stand off at a jump. He's such a good looking horse I feel sure he's going to be winning top races over fences. Whether he'll do so on fast ground is another matter. His three wins to date have all been on ground softer than yielding and he's such a heavy topped sort there has to be a strong suspicion that his two sub par performances at Cheltenham and Navan resulted from a dislike of faster going.

Both Trafford Lad and Forpadydeplasterer would undoubtedly have run faster off a stronger pace, but I can't estimate how much faster as the only decent benchmark race I could compare their run with was run in fog the previous day, which made taking sectional times impossible.

Trafford Lad is now unbeaten in three starts over fences. He won this race with a gritty display. Coming home very determinedly despite clearly being tired and running around a bit for this reason before the last. Seeing that the early pace wasn't very strong this performance has to raise some doubt about his ability to last three miles. Countering that is the fact this race was run on such soft ground.

In any event, the winner and runner up are clearly smart. But I'd bet that Forpadydeplasterer will turn out the best of the pair in the long run.