HOW GOOD IS QUEL ESPRIT?

You won't see many easier winners than QUEL ESPRIT (38) who simply cantered away with the Grade 3 Cork Stayers Novices Hurdle. In doing so he covered the last two miles of the three mile contest slightly quicker than the winner of the decent two mile handicap on the same card - which is pretty darned remarkable.

Quel Esprit was always cruising and jumped really well. Indeed down the far side he kept outjumping his rivals and gaining ground. His jockey could have allowed him to stroll to the front then but was obviously keen to hold his mount till later because he kept reining him back.

The race was soon over in the straight. Quel Esprit ambled into the lead and simply strolled away from his rivals like it was the end of an easy half mile gallop in the morning rather than the tail end of a strongly run three mile race on heavy ground.

I can only guess how fast Quel Esprit would have been capable of running if he'd been ridden out. My guess is he could have opened up around another six lengths with no problem, which would have taken him well into Grade 1 territory for a novice.

Quel Esprit is a tall, deep chested, long striding chasing sort that's clearly built for three miles plus. But he doesn't show much knee action so I'm thinking he won't have a problem handling good ground. This being so, the big market move for him in the three miler at the Cheltenham Festival looks justified.

Last year Quel Esprit suffered his only loss in six starts when he ran fourth of sixteen in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper over a totally inadequate distance. I'd be wary of betting against him winning there this year or indeed anywhere over three miles plus.

Long term Quel Esprit looks a fantastic chasing prospect. If you can find a bookie who'll give you a big price about him winning the 2011 RSA Chase or the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup I'd take it.

GOLDEN SILVER TOUGH TO BEAT OVER AN EASY TWO MILES

There seems to be a near foolproof system for picking the winner of the Hilly Way Chase at Cork. The race has been run nine times. And it has never been won by a horse aged nine or more, even though horses that old made up half the runners.

If fact seven of the eight runnings of the Hilly Way Chase before this year had gone to the horse aged eight or less which earned the biggest Racing Post rating last time out.

This year the horse aged eight or less with the biggest last time out Racing Post rating was GOLDEN SILVER (39) and he fairly cruised home to make it eight out of nine for the stats.

Golden Silver was always moving much the best, quickly closed up to second approaching the straight and smoothly moved clear from after the second last. He really belted the final fence but was going so well his jockey was still able to ease him right down on the run in for a very easy win.

Golden Silver is clearly a horse that has major stamina issues. He barely gets the minimum national hunt trip of two miles and doesn't even seem to get that far on a very stiff track - as evidenced by the way he tired so badly up the hill in the Arkle.

In the last four years Golden Silver has won all three times he's run two miles and a furlong or less outside of a very stiff track. He's won just one of his 26 starts at longer distances.

When he won the Grade 1 Arkle at Leopardstown last year Golden Silver clocked a fast time to beat subsequent Cheltenham Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer into second. In his only previous chase start at the minimum distance he'd bolted up by fifteen lengths.

All five of Golden Silver's lifetime wins have come on heavy ground. Just how quick a surface he could handle is hard to say as he's never had anything but heavy ground when he's raced over the minimum distance on a relatively easy course. Clearly though he's little if anything off the very best chasers at two miles because he's run a bit faster than this before and it looked like he would have won by around five to six lengths if he hadn't hit the last and been eased. That would put him bang there with the very best.

PANDORAMA WINS AGAIN AND ALPHA RIDGE GETS INTERESTING

This is proving to be an exceptional season for novice chasers. In Sizing Europe and PANDORAMA (41) we have two huge talents that seem set to win many of the top chases over the next few years.

Pandorama is clearly the harder to place of the two as he almost certainly needs soft or heavy ground. But he showed when taking the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse's postponed big meeting that he doesn't need to go left-handed as many had supposed after his last start.

I concede that Pandorama was deliberately kept back in behind the leaders this time instead of bowling along in front as usual. So he had little opportunity to jump left as other runners kept him from doing that. I also concede that he did run down to the left over the last three when he did go on. But the fact that he did not do so when surrounded by other runners earlier tells me it's a habit he can break himself of when he has to.

Pandorama ended up being quite impressive. He kicked on with the runner up when the strong early pace and heavy ground caused his other rivals to basically stop running before turning into the straight. And he powered clear in the closing stages to pass the line still traveling strongly - which was quite some feat after the slog he'd just been through.

Trainer Noel Meade says Pandorama was wrong behind when he ran second to Mikael d’Haguenet last year. The horse has won his other seven starts under rules and clearly has some engine.

The big question long term is just how well Pandorama is going to cope with a faster surface. He's a great big, top heavy sort that has done all his winning on ground that was soft or heavy according to race times. The only time he's run on good ground was in his racecourse debut in a two and a half mile point to point where he would have finished fifth of six finishers in a maiden if one rival hadn't fell when holding every chance two out. That run serves as a warning to anyone tempted to take a short price about Pandorama for the RSA Chase. Most likely the ground will be too quick for him there. But any time he runs on soft or heavy ground, especially over three miles plus, you won't find me opposing him.

The early pace had been strong. With six to jump it was obviously clear to Ruby Walsh on ALPHA RIDGE (39) that only his mount and Pandorama had anything left in the tank. He took a look back over his shoulder at that point, and you could see he was looking right at Pandorama and ignoring the other runners. He'd been running alongside him soon before and had the opportunity to see how well he was traveling.

Walsh asked his mount to stride on with four to jump and Alpha Ridge responded well. But Davey Condon instantly covered the move on Pandorama and the pair added at least thirty lengths to the margin between themselves and their pursuers within little more than a furlong.

Alpha Ridge kept going well but couldn't quite go with Pandorama from before the last. He didn't help his chances by following Pandorama and jumping left at the last. But he was clearly beaten on merit.

This was a seriously good Grade 1 novice chase. The strong early pace and heavy ground made it ride much more like a three mile than a two and a half mile contest.

If one photo had gone his way and he hadn't twice bumped into Pandorama Alpha Ridge would have won all eight times he's run on soft or heavy ground. In a normal year his performance would have been good enough to win the Drinmore. I see him as a great prospect to win a Grade 1 novice chase in his own right sometime this season - almost certainly over three miles plus. If he got his ground I'd give him a real shot of beating experienced chasers in a valuable handicap too.

Front running PESOTO went out like a light approaching the straight after jumping well and setting a strong pace. It looks like he can get two and a half miles in a less strongly run race or on faster ground. But while the ground remains this slow I'd prefer to see him over shorter.

IT'S A GOOD MOVE RESTING DUNGUIB

DUNGUIB (39) keeps on winning his races without his rider needing to draw his whip. This was the case again in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse. But jockey Brian O'Connel did have to get busier in the closing stages than he had in Dunguib's previous starts. As a result the horse improved from a previous lifetime best rating of 38 achieved on his last start to 39 here.

My feeling is Dunguib would run to about 40, perhaps 41 on my ratings if ridden right out. That makes him a very smart novice hurdler but not completely unbeatable and a shade off what's normally required to win a Champion Hurdle. So I think his trainer Philip Fenton was right to announce after the race that he'd be keeping him to novice company.

I also think Fenton was right to say he'll be giving Dunguib a break till February. It looks to me that Dunguib is most comfortable getting taken along at a strong pace. This means he's almost always going to clock a fast time.

Horses that habitually clock fast times, especially over the minimum NH trip, tend to be best fresh, and I'm betting that will prove the case with Dunguib. Indeed I'm rather concerned that his proposed comeback race could be a week too close to the Supreme Novices. If he were mine I'd be inclined to shoot for an easier race a little sooner or take him straight to Cheltenham without another run.

One horse that I'll be rather interested in if he re-opposes Dunguib in the Supreme Novices is SWEEPS HILL (29). I'm strongly inclined to believe his trainer's explanation that he didn't get home in the heavy ground here. He looked the main threat to Dunguib turning in but fell away to nothing up the straight. He's a big handsome, good moving horse that had earlier demonstrated a very good turn of foot on a slightly faster surface at Punchestown to beat Some Present who chased home Dunguib in this race.

Watch the video of that race and it's clear it was something of a farce. The jockeys of all the four runners each looked to be under ironclad instructions not to take the lead at any cost. The result was that they literally walked for much of the race. In fact they went so slow at one of the early hurdles that Some Present got worried about whether he had enough momentum to even jump it and tried to run out. Thereafter the jockeys seemed to come to an unspoken agreement whereby they walked in between the hurdles and broke into a canter approaching them to be sure they had enough momentum to clear them.

The race inevitably developed into a flat out sprint from three out and it was Sweeps Hill who produced the best turn of foot. Despite being a tall, deep chested, two and a half mile plus chasing sort, he showed real acceleration from the last. And he did so even after he landed on all fours over the final jump and Some Present landed cleanly and running.

Sweeps Hill was going away pretty rapidly in the last few strides that day. And it's not surprising he has a great turn of foot. He's flat bred. His sole sibling to race so far was Windfields Farm who won six times on the flat in Australia, twice over a mile.

Horses with a serious turn of foot are invariably best on faster ground. I'd bet on that being the case with Sweeps Hill. After all his only defeat in four previous starts had come the only time he'd run on ground with the word 'heavy' in the official description. This was when he ran second to Dunguib in the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival.

I reckon the 33-1 the bookies are offering about Sweeps Hill for the Supreme Novices is way too big. He's a seriously good looking horse with smart form and a terrific turn of foot. On the likely quicker surface at Cheltenham he might very well prove good enough.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE OSCAR DAN DAN

Races that end up in sprint finishes can be misleading as they enable relatively slow horses to finish close up. This was the case with the Hatton's Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse last week in which the relatively moderate Healys Bar was able to go quite close. But I still think the first two are very interesting horses.

The winner was OSCAR DAN DAN (31) who managed to get up and win despite the fact the runner up enjoyed a big tactical advantage in the sprint finish by stealing a break turning in.

Oscar Dan Dan has improved tremendously this season, and this is almost certainly because his connections have discovered the right way to ride him. He dropped himself out in one race last term and it now seems he needs company to keep his interest in a race.

You can see this from Oscar Dan Dan's seasonal debut. In that race he made the running and looked set to cruise home entering the homestraight. But his ears had always been going this way and that and he had a confused look about him. Approaching two out he seemed to ease himself up and this allowed the eventual winner to go past him. On the run in he rallied strongly and was full of running but couldn't quite get back up.

Next time out trainer Tom Mullins said that the lead Oscar Dan Dan got for most for the race

from Clicksnmortar is what helped him win. Once that one faded entering the straight he fairly sprinted away to score by fifteen lengths from the Grade 1 winning chaser Schindlers Hunt.

Last time out Oscar Dan Dan's jockey was careful to ensure his mount had company even after he jumped his way into the lead at the fourth. He looked to have the race won entering the straight as he was going stronger than any of his rivals and had a couple of lengths on them. But approaching two out the field fanned out and he was seeing a lot of daylight. He ran green, shifted his ground, took the jump wrong and capsized on landing. I'm convinced he would have won, beating the useful Aitmatov into second, if he'd stood up.

Oscar Dan Dan has looked awfully smart this season and I rate him a good prospect for all the big staying hurdles. Obviously he's going to be a tricky ride. But things should be easier for him in bigger fields where he'll find it easier to find a lead and avoid seeing too much daylight.

NINETIETH MINUTE (31) would obviously have won if he hadn't smashed the last and landed on all fours, losing a lot of momentum. But on the other hand he did enjoy a real advantage thanks to his rider Tony McCoy stealing a break on his rivals turning in. This made him very hard to catch in the sprint finish.

Here Ninetieth Minute showed once more that he's a very smart horse. Three runs back he beat Solwhit into second place at Thurles. That one certainly franked the form by taking Grade 2 and Grade 1 races on his next two starts. Ninetieth Minute himself didn't do too badly afterwards either by winning the Coral Cup.

Ninetieth Minute was always moving really well in the Coral Cup, just lobbing along, even as all his rivals started coming under pressure after the searching early pace. He ambled into the lead in the straight and then idled in front, otherwise he would have won by more than a length and a half.

Ninetieth Minute is clearly a bit of an oddball as he races with his tail held high and flashes it if his jockey pushes him too hard (he was doing that from some way out here). But he clearly has stacks of ability.

The main concern with Ninetieth Minute will always be fitness. He's a great big sort that must be hard to get fit at home.

Ninetieth Minute did win a Bumper on his racecourse debut. But pretty much all the runners in such races are grossly unfit and they're slow run contests anyhow which don't test a horse's fitness. He also won a maiden hurdle by a neck against weak rivals on his second start of the 07/08 season too. But that was miles below his best.

Last season Ninetieth Minute needed two runs to get fit enough to win, and he ran unplaced in both of them, getting beat 19.5 and 22 lengths. This season the racecourse commentator noted he was 'carrying a fair bit of condition' first time out when he tired rather quickly late into a pretty distant third (he would only have been fourth if Oscar Dan Dan hadn't fallen). And I'm thinking he'll come on a fair bit for this run too.

Ninetieth Minute has already been schooled over fences and it's the norm for horses by Old Vic to go novice chasing at his age. But whether he sticks to hurdles or goes chasing next time I'll be interested in his chances.

It was understandable that CATCH ME (29) started 11-10 favourite because he's truly brilliant in mud. If one unlucky neck defeat had been a win he would have won the previous eleven times he'd completed the course in Ireland at 14 furlongs plus on yielding or softer ground. He'd won the Hatton's Grace race last year from a very strong field and earned a string of really good speed ratings from me.

However Catch Me had run over fences in both his previous starts this term. And, given his relatively light-framed physique and the way he tends to scramble over jumps, I'm sure he was schooled rigorously over the bigger jumps before he tried them in public. He'd almost certainly become conditioned to jumping fences and this helps explain why he was sloppy at several jumps here and ran below form.

In a lower class hurdle race a horse can get away with switching back from chasing. But this was a Grade 1. And in the last fourteen years there have been sixty one horses which ran in British or Irish Grade 1 hurdles that contested a chase on their most recent outing. All sixty one lost - and they included several horses that, like Catch Me, had won Grade 1 races over timber before.

It may take one more run for Catch Me to get his eye back in over the smaller jumps. But when he does I'd expect him to once more being very hard to beat on soft ground.

ZAARITO COULD BE A BETTER PROSPECT THAN CAPTAIN CEE BEE

CAPTAIN CEE BEE (38) produced a tremendous performance to win on his chasing debut off a near two year break at Naas.

Always prominent in a race run at a strong pace for the heavy ground, Captain Cee Bee kicked on with the runner up before the last, gained the edge with a superior jump there and then held his rallying rival on the run in.

This run proved several things. First it showed that Captain Cee Bee is back to his best. Second it proved he can act on heavy ground. Third it demonstrated he is a good jumper of fences.

That said, there are some obvious concerns about Captain Cee Bee. He's had a litany of physical problems and needs to show now that he can hold his form and that this wasn't simply a one-off success he was able to produce due to being very fresh and having ground that was very kind to his suspect legs.

It's worth bearing in mind that Captain Cee Bee is about to turn nine years of age. Only one horse that old has won the Arkle in the last half century.

My suspicion is that runner up ZAARITO (38) could end up being more successful this season. He's a year younger and there some obvious reasons he should improve on this run.

The factor which clearly drives Zaarito's form is his physique. He's a rather light-framed sort that's not built to do well in really big fields as he's bound to come off worst in the traffic problems they invariably generate. Indeed he's been hampered and lost in the two biggest fields he's run in (23 and 29 runners).

Zaarito's physique must make it hard for him to jump out of soft ground too. This surely explains why he fell in two of his three previous starts (both on heavy ground).

In this race mistakes at one early fence and the last visibly cost Zaarito more momentum than they would a bigger horse. So he did well to rally strongly and only go under in a photo to a Grade 1 winner like Captain Cee Bee.

Light-framed horses tend to be best fresh. And this does look to be true for Zaarito. So I'd like to see five week plus gaps between his runs for the rest of the season.

Zaarito raced keenly here, as he often does, so I think he's probably going to prove best at two miles, as his trainer suggested earlier. He's shown in the past that he can produce a serious turn of foot and seems to have any amount of ability.

On faster ground I'd bet on Zaarito being good enough to beat pretty much anything in the novice ranks when fresh over two miles. I'm very interested in his prospects of taking a decent race at one of the Spring Festival meetings.

DON'T WRITE OFF ARAN CONCERTO

A few years ago a paleontologist 'proved' that no land animal could weigh more than 100 tons because it would have to be made almost entirely of bone to support its weight. Naturally enough the remains of a 110 ton dinosaur dubbed 'Giganotosaurus' were discovered soon after. But the basic principle still remains; the bigger an animal is the slower it's capable of moving. The Brontosaurus for example had a top speed of just 2.4 miles an hour judged by measurements of its fossilised footprints.

I mention this because there comes a point when the size of a horse limits its acceleration and top speed. This year's winner of the John Durkan Memorial JONCOL (40) is pushing these limits. At 18 hands, he is one of the biggest horses in training.

Due to his size Joncol has little in the way of acceleration. He almost certainly needs soft ground to counteract this and also to reduce the concussion he feels when hitting the ground due to his enormous bulk.

Prior to the Grade 1 Champion Novices' Chase at last season's Punchestown Festival Joncol had won all five times he'd encountered soft or heavy ground (I'm including his point to point form). He went well there and kept on, albeit at one pace, but got beat into a close third in what was clearly a sub-par contest.

It's quite possible that the three miles of that contest is too far for Joncol. After all he was tiring in the closing stages. This seems likely because Joncol earned his biggest ever speed rating from me on his seasonal debut when second to the smart Tranquil Sea over two miles.

In the John Durkan Memorial Joncol showed that he's just as effective over two and a half miles, grinding out a five and a half length win in the heavy ground after leading or pressing the leader all the way.

Joncol is due to go up to three miles again for the Lexus Chase next time out. I'll be siding against him there on stamina grounds and also because he is so one paced.

If there was a Lexus Chase winner in the race I suspect it was ARAN CONCERTO who was going really well when Joncol started getting in his way four out.

At the fourth last Joncol made contact in the air with the much smaller Aran Concerto. Then at the third last he swerved dramatically right across him as the pair jumped. This caused Aran Concerto to be snatched up sharply and land very steeply to avoid crashing into his bigger rival and coming down. The incident cost Aran Concerto a lot of momentum. Within a few strides he dropped from a neck off the lead to stone last.

It looks like Aran Concerto wrenched his back when forced to snatch up as he failed to rise at the next and took a crashing fall. Thankfully he got up again quite quickly and walked away seemingly sound.

If Aran Concerto can recover from this in time for the Lexus I'd give him a serious shot as he's always looked much more of a three miler than a two and a half miler to me.

It's tempting to conclude that Aran Concerto dislikes big fields because his only two losses in eight starts before this fall came when he was hampered in big fields. However when you look at Aran Concerto's physique and pedigree it's pretty obvious that the two and a half miles he's been kept to so far is on the short side for him. This results in him getting stretched and finding it hard to manouver away from traffic problems. He's bred for three miles plus and his physique screams out that he's wanting that sort of distance. Over three miles plus I think he'll do fine in big fields.

As with Joncol, cut in the ground seems to key crucial for Aran Concerto. He went lame on the fastest ground he's encountered in the Powers Gold Cup but still managed to win. He can hardly have been suited to the sprint finish either.

For a horse to beat top class rivals in a Grade 1 like that on three legs on unsuitably fast ground in a race not run to suit him is pretty darned extraordinary.

It looks likely to me that Aran Concerto finished lame the only other time he's run on ground that race times indicate was good because he had to be laid off for twenty months afterwards. Most likely he's always going to need cut in the ground due to his top heavy physique. He clearly has stacks of ability because he's already won three Grade 1's in a total of just nine career starts.