IRELAND FEBRUARY 05

PIZARRO STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE GOLD CUP

It's that time of year when Grand National entrants finally start winning. Until now the best of them invariably suffer from what I call 'Grand National Blight'. But once the weights for the big race are out the horses that have been seriously targeted at the Aintree marathon tend to come into form. It sees to me their whole season is focused around the one race and only when it draws near are they anywhere near peak fitness. This theory certainly seems borne out by the success of Hedgehunter (38) in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last Saturday.

I don't see Hedgehunter winning at Aintree. He fails a whole stack of what seem to be significant statistical tests for the big race. However, the runner-up PIZARRO (38) is now looking more interesting than ever to me in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I've mentioned before that I'm convinced Pizarro just can't jump fences effectively out of soft ground. He appeared to prove that once more here. But for me, his performance signaled a likely return to form at Cheltenham.

This was Pizarro's best ever run over fences on soft or heavy ground. But on anything faster than soft ground the record of this triple Grade 1winner remains sensational. Toss out his seasonal debut (when he clearly wasn't fully fit) and his chase starts on soft and heavy ground and Pizarro's record shows eight wins out of nine completed starts. The sole loss was a one length second to Hardy Eustace, who I rate the fastest hurdler since Istabraq on my speed ratings.

Pizarro always seems to peak for Cheltenham, and it looks like he's going to do so again judged by this run. I see him as a fabulous bet at the enormous odds currently available for the Gold Cup.

PUBLICAN (38) put up a terrific performance to run away with a Naas maiden hurdle in exceptional time last Sunday. He's surely capable of running a bit faster and would only need to move up a few lengths to be the equal of Justified, the fastest two mile novice hurdler we've seen so far according to my ratings.

Publican has already won a Grade 2 Bumper and has a pedigree that suggests the likely faster ground at Cheltenham shouldn't be a problem. It could well be that he prefers steep uphill finishes seeing that he's been so impressive at Navan and now Naas. So the hill at Cheltenham ought to be in his favour. The bookies had him as high as 33-1 for the Supreme Novices after this run, but the clock says he's no 33-1 shot.

Ireland seems to be somewhat overstocked with staying novice hurdlers that need mud this season. And three of the best horses of this type filled the placings for the Grade 2 Johnstown Novice Hurdle at Naas. BLACK APALACHI (37) won from HOMER WELLS (36) and SWEET KILN (36). I've mentioned all three horses here before as ones to follow and don't really have much to add except that the latter two are probably better over three miles rather than the two and a half they ran over here.

HARDY EUSTACE STILL THE ONE TO BEAT

I've mentioned before that according to my speed ratings HARDY EUSTACE (41) is the fastest hurdler we've seen since Istabraq. I've given him speed ratings as big as 45, which is well ahead of any of his rivals in the Champion Hurdle. He didn't have to run quite that fast to win the Red Mills Trial Hurdle. But by scoring comfortably when surely not at full fitness and without the blinkers that seem to improve him he confirmed that he's still the one they all have to beat on the big day.

The records show that exceptional Champion Hurdlers tend to repeat their wins in the big race, and there's no doubt that the clock says Hardy Eustace is an exceptional Champion Hurdler. He looks over-priced at 6-1 to me.

RATHGAR BEAU (40) dotted up in the Red Mills Chase. He didn't have to run quite as fast as he has before, but he confirmed that he's been much improved by the rigorous re-schooling he's had from Con Power.

The general view seems to be that it would be crazy for Rathgar Beau to go for the Two Mile Champion Chase as Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop and Well Chief are all much faster and the trip is on the short side for him. I don't see any such indications from my speed ratings. Rathgar Beau has run as fast as all his big rivals bar Moscow Flyer. And his sub-par efforts at trips less than two and a half miles have all been at Leopardstown, a track I strongly suspect he doesn't like. I still say he has a serious shot in the big race.

I've never been a great fan of WATSON LAKE (40) but I have to admit he ran awfully fast when winning the Grade 2 Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan. He beat the very smart Ulaan Baatar by a huge margin and had me thinking I'd made some sort of mistake with my standard times. But I checked them and confirmed that he ran more than six seconds a mile closer to my standard time than any other winner on the card.

Clearly Watson Lake is a very smart two mile chaser when he gets some cut in the ground. It's a real shame he can't act on faster ground as this all but rules him out of the Arkle where the going is almost certain to be on the firm side.

It looks pretty clear that Watson Lake doesn't really stay two and a half miles even though he's won in Grade 1 company at the distance. That was in a very small field however where he was allowed to set a pedestrian gallop.

I imagine Watson Lake's connections will be suckered into running at Cheltenham by the inaccurate going reports the track so often gives out for their big meeting. No doubt he'll lose badly there. But afterwards I can see him starting at tasty odds to score at Aintree or Punchestown when the ground turns in his favor.

For my money if we saw an Arkle winner in the Flyingbolt it was SCARTHY LAD who fell at the second. It seems to me that like many of the best two mile chasers, Scarthy Lad is best when fresh. I believe that he runs to what I call the rest pattern which I've mentioned in connection with Well Chief. That is, he's good for his first two runs off a break of three months or more but then needs a rest of at least five weeks between his completed starts to run well again. Toss out his runs last season when he never seemed to be right, and Scarthy Lad's form shows five wins out of six to the rest pattern and four unplaced runs out of four when he hasn't been fresh. Thanks to his fall, he'll be going to Cheltenham as a fresh horse and will still rate as the fastest horse in the line up on my ratings.

Horses normally improve significantly for their first start over hurdles, mostly because they invariably waste energy and ground at the jumps through inexperience. This being so, the pattern class time clocked by DOCTOR LINTON (36) on his hurdling debut at Thurles is well worth noting. Normal improvement would see him take his place among the top novice hurdlers. And normal improvement is the least I would expect seeing that he was always cruising and appeared to win with a good deal in hand.

EMOTIONAL MOMENT has yet to run a decent time, and again failed to do so in the Grade 3 Boyne Hurdle at Naas. But he keeps on beating horses that have run fast times by big margins. And this win took his record up to five wins from five completed starts on ground softer than yielding at trips beyond two and a half miles.

I strongly suspect that Emotional Moment is the best staying hurdler around when the ground is softer than yielding. But on faster going his only win in 12 attempts was in a poor novice chase. He seems set to flop on the likely fast ground at Cheltenham, but I'd bet him to beat anything if he gets his ground at Aintree or Punchestown afterwards.

Solerina was never jumping and tipped up at the sixth. I'm convinced she would have been well beaten had she completed, seeing that she now appears horribly out of form and suffered her biggest margin defeat the only previous time she tried the Boyne distance of three miles. Solerina has now failed to reach the first three on her last three starts, despite all of them being run on ground softer than yielding. She'd won her previous fifteen starts in a row on such ground and is now surely in need of a rest, having had eight runs against high class opponents in the last four months.

THE GALWAY MAN FRANKS RATHGAR BEAU'S FORM

I wrote up THE GALWAY MAN (38) after he'd run ran fourth in what I rated one of the fastest races of the season behind Rathgar Beau last time out. And he validated my high opinion of him by winning a hot little conditions chase at Clonmel in Grade 3 class time.

The Galway Man led till tiring late in both the Leopardstown Chase and the Paddy Power Chase, and it now seems clear that he simply doesn't quite stay three miles.

Over two and a half miles however, The Galway Man is a seriously good horse. Outside of his run behind Rathgar Beau, with a bit of racing luck he would have won all five times he's run the distance. I'd say he's still worth following over what seems to be his favourite trip. His run certainly confirms my view that Rathgar Beau has a real chance in the Two Mile Champion Chase despite his big odds.

ALBERONI (35) ran an unusually fast time to win a novices handicap chase at Naas. If he hadn't clipped the top of the last when losing narrowly last time out this might well have been his third win in a row. Despite this, Alberoni ran off a mark of just 98 last Saturday and looks amazingly well handicapped. Alberoni is due to go for the Ulster National at Downpatrick next time and looks to have a decent chance. I just hope he doesn't miss the cut for that race due to his low official rating.

PIZARRO HAS SERIOUS CHANCE IN GOLD CUP

It's hard to know what rating to give RULE SUPREME (39) for his win in the Hennessy Gold Cup. It was much the fastest race of the day and he was a wide margin winner from Beef Or Salmon who had a respiratory tract infection. With no reliable lines of form to go on, all I can do is award him a speed rating equal to the biggest he's earned before. It could well be really ran faster or slower.

I've mentioned before my belief that Rule Supreme is probably best in small fields over fences. Given the way he blundered his way around Sandown last term, I'm not confident about his ability to jump in a crowd, even over the easier jumps they have in Britain. So I still hope his connections go for the Stayers' Hurdle rather than the Gold Cup as that's where I'd see him having the best chance.

Beef Or Salmon is also best in small fields in my opinion, so I don't think much of his chances in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where a big field seems highly likely. I'm also getting concerned that he keeps on having physical problems that prevent him from winning.

For my money, Ireland's best chance of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year is with Pizarro who was still there when tipping up five out.

Pizzaro is a Triple Grade 1 winner who has won eight of his twelve completed starts.

I believe that three of Pizarro's four losses when completing can easily be explained. Firstly, he undoubtedly needed his seasonal debut this term (but still ran well). Secondly, I just don't think he can jump fences out of the bottomless ground they sometimes have in Ireland. His jockey said he wasn't jumping when he pulled him up on soft ground at Fairyhouse last season. Jumping was again the problem when he ran below form on soft to heavy ground last time. And he jumped poorly out of the very soft ground on this occasion before falling.

Toss out his seasonal debut and his chase starts on soft and heavy ground and Pizarro's record shows eight wins out of nine completed starts. The sole loss was a one length second to Hardy Eustace, who I rate the fastest hurdler since Istabraq on my speed ratings.

Pizarro clearly loves Cheltenham. With a bit of luck he might well be going for his fourth Festival win in four years next month. The likely faster ground will be in his favour too, so I think the bookies are crazy to offer him at 33-1 and bigger.

ROYAL PARADISE (35) earned a speed rating of 40 from me when running fourth in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper last term, and I suspect he can run just as fast over hurdles. He wasn't able to do so in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown due to the slow pace set by Sweet Kiln. He won the race well though and looks to represent Ireland's best chance of taking one of the big novice hurdles at this year's Cheltenham Festival.

Carrigeen Victor (31) won the Grade 1 Dr P J Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown's big meeting. But the time was only ho hum, so I'm going to wait to see how he does in a more competitive race before recommending him as one to follow.

JUSTIFIED THE TOP CANDIDATE FOR THE SUPREME NOVICES

Until JUSTIFIED (41) won last Sunday all the fastest novice hurdlers had scored their best wins over longer distances. Justified is the first to have run seriously fast over the minimum distance. His trainer, Eamon Sheehy, suggested that Justified might be switched to the longer Sun Alliance Hurdle if the ground came up fast at Cheltenham. But I suspect two miles is going to prove Justified's best trip and that fast ground won't be a problem. He doesn't hit the ground that hard, tends to be a bit keen, flies low over the jumps and shows terrific acceleration. These are normally the attributes of a Supreme Novices' winner, and one that prefers fast ground too. I hope he goes for the shorter race as he looks the best candidate we've seen for it or are likely to see.

I guess it's a bit late to jump on the bandwagon. But RATHGAR BEAU (42) ran so fast to win the Kinloch Brae chase that I have to. It is now clear that he has improved due to rigorous re-schooling by Con Power and is now a much better jumper than he was before. In fact, if he hadn't bumped up against Kicking King and Moscow Flyer and unseated his rider once, he would almost certainly have won seven of his last eight starts.

Traier Eamon Sheehy puts Rathgar Beau's below par run at Leopardstown last time down to a low white blood cell count. Personally I'm beginning to wonder whether there might not be something about Leopardstown that he doesn't like. Rathgar Beau has now lost all five of his starts at Leopardstown but won ten out of 38 elsewhere.

Bookmakers dismiss Rathgar Beau as a 50-1 shot to win the Champion Two Mile Chase at Cheltenham. But on my speed figures he's no 50-1 shot. He has raised his lifetime best speed figure from 36 to 37, 38, 39 and now 42 in recent starts. In other words he has been showing major improvement in line with his improved jumping.

CENTRAL HOUSE (39) proved that he stays two and a half miles by running second. He also confirmed that he can hold his form in the second half of the season. If he can avoid Rathgar Beau, Kicking King and Moscow Flyer he'll be hard to beat next time.

NIL DESPERANDUM (37) showed major improvement on his recent form to take third. This was by far his best run since he returned from injury at the end of last season. Previously he'd beaten Central House and won a Grade 1 over fences, so I would not discount further improvement next time. Nil Desperandum is still relatively lightly raced and could yet prove competitive in top races once more. I'm prepared to put his poor previous runs down to lack of fitness and an aversion to visors and blinkers. He looks a very interesting proposition for a big handicap chase in the near future.

Fourth-placed THE GALWAY MAN (36) had run a fast time over two and a half miles back in December and did so again when returning to what seems his ideal distance here. If he sticks to two and a half miles I can see him winning a decent handicap sometime soon.

Old Native Upmanship (36) didn't run badly when attempting to win the race for the fourth time in a row. But it's now getting very hard to avoid the conclusion that he's deteriorated with age and won't be winning again.

MOSCOW FLYER (38) did his normal thing of idling in front when taking the Tied Cottage chase from a small field. He's now won all 17 of his completed chase starts and looks to have every chance of taking the Champion Chase once more.

Steel Band (37) did well for a novice to chase Moscow Flyer home. But the clock suggests he did not show any improvement and remains below top class. He only got so close because Moscow Flyer idled.

THE GALWAY MAN FRANKS RATHGAR BEAU'S FORM

The Galway Man led till tiring late in both the Leopardstown Chase and the Paddy Power Chase, and it now seems clear that he simply doesn't quite stay three miles.

Over two and a half miles however, The Galway Man is a seriously good horse. Outside of his run behind Rathgar Beau, with a bit of racing luck he would have won all five times he's run the distance. I'd say he's still worth following over what seems to be his favorite trip. His run certainly confirms my view that Rathgar Beau has a real chance in the Two Mile Cahmpion Chase despite his big odds.

PIZARRO HAS SERIOUS CHANCE IN GOLD CUP

For my money, Ireland's best chance of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year is with Pizarro who was still there when tipping up five out.

Pizzaro is a Triple Grade 1 winner who has won eight of his twelve completed starts.