MERDEKA IS SPECIAL

Tom Taafe is not one of those trainers who think all they're geese are swans. So the very high opinion he has of MERDEKA (39) is interesting in itself. Last Sunday Merdeka went a long way towards justifying that opinion by recording a seriously fast time to take the Grade 2 Johnstown Novice Hurdle at Naas.

Taafe is being very patient with Merdeka. After he'd won on his second start last season he told reporters that he'd probably put the horse away for the season, which he duly did. Now, after just four starts this term he's again announced that's it till next season.

Clearly Taafe sees Merdeka as a chasing prospect and doesn't intend taxing him while he's still a baby over hurdles. Next season though this big, tall horse will go over the bigger jumps, and I can easily see him developing into a Gold Cup prospect when he does.

Runner-up BACK TO BID (38) disappointed his trainer with sloppy jumping. But he ran faster than he did last time out - something he has now achieved in four consecutive races according to my ratings. This suggests that he is learning. And, for a horse that jumped poorly he ran awfully fast. He's one of the top novice hurdlers on this run and if he continues to improve and jumps better who knows how good he might be.

GAZZA'S GIRL CAN KEEP ON WINNING

GAZZA'S GIRL (37) won for the third time in a row when taking a valuable novice handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse by ten lengths. She ran fast enough to win a Graded novice event against colts and geldings. So she must have a great chance of winning the valuable mares-only novice hurdle over the same course at Easter.

DON'T UNDER-ESTIMATE MANSONY

MANSONY (40) ran spectacularly fast for a novice to win the Grade 2 Flyingbolt Novice Chase by 25 lengths. He'd been on his way to earning a similar speed rating when tipping up at the last behind Missed That in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. Clearly he's very smart.

I note with interest that Mansony has scored by big margins both times he's run over fences on a very stiff track. And he showed at Leopardstown that he can run to his best on fast ground. These two facts make him look a very interesting candidate for the Arkle where I can easily see him pulling off an upset.

MACS JOY IS OVER RATED

As I see it the bookies over-reacted when cutting Macs Joy (39) to 5-1 for the Champion Hurdle following his easy win in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle. He's always been a bit behind the very best over timber and the time he ran confirmed this idea.

Macs Joy has won two Grade 1 hurdles in tiny fields. But in both of those he beat Brave Inca home - and that was before they put Tony McCoy up on that horse. Before McCoy got the mount it looked like Brave Inca needed a big field to generate the strong early pace he needs. McCoy discovered that you could let Brave Inca set his own pace which has enabled him to win several times in small fields since those defeats by Macs Joy.

Brave Inca beat Grade 3 rivals in Grade 3 time to win the Red Mills. He'd lost his six previous outings against stronger competition. Why should it be any different in the Champion Hurdle?

For me the horse to take out of the race, weirdly enough is the fourth and last placed finished ESSEX (34). Essex seems to need the cover that only a really big field can provide to run his best. If he sees too much daylight he just doesn't run to form. So far he's won six times out of six in fields of 16 or more and lost all eleven times he's run in smaller fields.

The Champion Hurdle is widely considered to be an open race this year, so I can easily see there being 16 runners or more. If there are I wouldn't discount the chances of Essex lightly. At the likely huge odds he'd be a very itneresting bet each-way.

GOLDEN CROSS PROVES HE STAYS

I was very dubious about GOLDEN CROSS (39) getting home over 2m 7f on soft ground at Navan in the Boyne Hurdle. But he proved me wrong to get the better of FLORIDA COAST (38).

This run shows that Golden Cross is just as fast over three miles as he is over two. The problem is that his best is still a bit shy of the very top staying hurdlers. In addition he developed leg trouble after running on ground that was too fast for him at Cheltenham in 2004, and his connections are way of trying him on such a firm surface again.

I had thought that Florida Coast was nailed on to win this race. But he got caught late in proceedings after looking sure to score. It seems to me that, due to his leg problems (he's broken down on each fore), Florida Coast needs a bit of ease in the ground. For the same reason I think Florida Coast doesn't like tight tracks (A veterinary study carried out a few years ago using tiny heat sensors showed that the tighter the turns the more stress there was on a horse's forelegs). In addition, like a lot of unsound horses, it appears that Florida Coast needs a break between his runs to recover from the wear and tear of a race.

If you look at Florida Coast's National Hunt record and toss out the races on tight tracks, going faster than yielding and those where he hasn't had a break of 28 days plus you'll find that he looks very good indeed. He's reached the first two nine times out of nine in these circumstances, winning twice. Five of his runner up placing's were to Grade 1 winners. Surely he can be placed to win something decent before the season is out.

THE RAILWAY MAN ON THE RIGHT TRACK

Novice chasers are invariably a few lengths per mile slower than experienced chasers.  So the time that THE RAILWAY MAN (39) clocked to win the Dr P. J Moriarty Novice Chase was in line with its Grade 1 status.  The run established him as one of the fastest novice chasers of the season on my ratings.

The Railway Man seems to lack a bit of stamina on the dam's side,. so it's not surprising that his trainer, Arthur Moore,  feels the 2m 5f of this race was about as far as he'd want to go.  His next big target will be the 2m 4f Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse where he'll surely have a major chance.

Noel Meade, trainer of the runner up FATHER MATT (38) has also expressed concerns about his charge staying three miles.  Nonetheless he has a very smart horse on his hands.  Indeed, if he'd only learned to jump properly sooner and hadn't bumped up against the freakishly smart Nickname on his previous start Father Matt might easily have won his nine previous starts before narrowly losing this Grade 1 event.

With the stamina doubts about the first two, the close third OUR BEN (38) has naturally attracted the biggest ante-post  interest for the Sun Alliance Chase - and rightly so.  Our Ben earned a speed rating of 40 from me at the Cheltenham Festival Last year, was staying on best of all here and is proven on the fast ground that normally prevails at the big meeting. 

MISTER HIGHT AND MR NOSIE NEED TO RUN QUICKER

Mister Hight (36) and Mr Nosie (37) both won at Leopardstown last Sunday.  But they need to run faster to have a chance in their intended Cheltenham targets, the Triumph and Sun Alliance Hurdles.

I rather doubt that Mister Hight is going to make the required progress.  But it's a lot tougher to say that about Mr Nosie as he's unbeaten in five starts (including his point to point win) and is one of those horses that eases himself up once he hits the front.  Still, from a speed ratings standpoint, I have to take a negative view until he runs faster.

HOW GOOD IS JUST?

When a horse keeps on winning and does so in fast time it pays to be cautious about opposing it. This is the case with JUST (37) who won for the fifth time this season when taking a decent handicap chase at Punchestown.

Just is still significantly under-rated by his current handicap mark according to my speed ratings so I'd bet on him winning again.

Runner up HIT THE NET (36) pulled clear of the third and also recorded a decent time. He was a decent hurdler and seems set to be just as good over fences now that he's stepped up to two and a half miles.