NORTHERN ALLIANCE GETS INTERESTING FOR JEWSON

I suggested after his loss in early January that MADE IN TAIPAN (39) would likely bounce back to form if he were rested for about six weeks. My reasoning was that most of the fastest two mile chasers are best when they're fresh.

Sure enough Made In Taipan put a couple of disappointing runs behind him by making all the running at a strong pace to win the Grade 2 Flyingboild Novice Chase at Navan in fast time off a six week break.

There is little doubt that Made In Taipan is a very smart two mile chaser on left handed tracks when he gets the soft ground his trainer, Thomas Mullins, says he needs. But soft ground is now looking unlikely at Cheltenham. And, if he went for the Arkle, Made In Taipan would be doing so off a rest that's almost certainly shorter than he needs to produce top form.

Mullins says he won't run Made In Taipan if the ground is too fast at Cheltenham. That sounds like a smart plan. If he were mine I'd be aiming the horse at Aintree instead and hoping the ground turns in his favour there.

If there was a Cheltenham winner in the race it was surely NORTHERN ALLIANCE (36) who finished third.

All through the race Northern Alliance was the only horse besides the winner that was traveling. He actually moved pretty smoothly entering the straight and looked like he'd be able to challenge. But the combination of chasing such a fast pace for so long and the eleven week break since his last outing combined to see him tire over the last two. Though he still kept on and nearly took second.

It looks to me that Northern Alliance is best at around two and a half miles and that he'll improve for this run. That being so he shapes up as rather an interesting proposition for the Jewson at Cheltenham.

HOW GOOD IS AN SIORRAC?

AN SIORRAC (32) clocked a pretty fast time for a Hunter Chase when hosing up by thirty lengths at Fairyhouse. You will rarely see a horse win so easily in soft ground.

How good the horse is I cannot say at this point as he only came out of a canter briefly from two out to the last when he was asked to go and win his race and quickly opened up an enormous margin before being heavily eased on the run in.

An Siorrac won a maiden point to point on his racecourse debut by a distance. Then he beat one of the top hunter chasers, Carronhills, by five lengths before putting up this tremendous performance.

I wouldn't dare to oppose An Siorrac in hunter chases on this showing and would be very interested to see how he'd fare in the top novice chases next term. Very well I suspect.

An Siorrac is a tall, deep chested, long striding sort. But he's not top heavy and cumbersome and clearly has a fair bit of pace as well as stamina judged by the way he so rapidly pulled away from this field when asked. He's only six and looks one of the most exciting prospects to emerge from the point to point field in years.

QUEVEGA HAS SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA

There was no way that QUEVEGA (10) was going to clock anything close to a decent time off the crawl of pace they went till the last few furlongs at Punchestown. But the way she totally outpaced her rivals in the sprint finish that developed showed she has speed as well as stamina. I particularly liked the way she was able to ping the last few jumps while her rivals floundered in her wake.

Quevega has run fast enough to be a big threat in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. In fact if Whiteoak sidesteps the race as I suspect then she'll deserve to start favourite. She's a consistent, classy sort that has shown her best in a wide variety of circumstances.

HEAD OF THE POSSE CAN WIN A BIG RACE

HEAD OF THE POSSE (37) impressed me with the way he won a decent Conditions Hurdle at Punchestown in Listed class time. He cruised along in behind most of the way then made a big move between the last two, accelerating from eighth to dispute second place in about thirty strides. He had to be ridden vigorously to catch Deal Done on the run in but kept moving strongly and was always going to get there.

With better luck Head Of The Posse would have won five of his last six starts. He's built for chasing but looks more than capable of winning a very decent event over hurdles.

EBADIYAN SHOULD TURN THIS FORM AROUND AT CHELTENHAM

Having seen his performance in the Grade 2 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown I rather doubt that the connections of EBADIYAN (38) will want him to make the running in future. He set a fair gallop but got caught flat-footed when the pace quickened approaching two out and fell back. He then rallied strongly in the closing stages to lose by just three parts of a length.

My feeling from watching this run is that Ebadiyan will do better in future when he runs in bigger fields and has the chance to sit in behind his rivals before making a late run. Then again it could simply be that he needs a stiffer test of stamina than he got at Leopardstown.

I've little doubt that Ebadiyan will stay two and a half miles plus and that the steep uphill run in and huge field in the Triumph Hurdle will suit him down to the ground. This being so I think he should turn the form around at Cheltenham with the winner JUMBO RIO (38).

That said, I should say I rated this the best juvenile hurdle of the whole season. I had Ebadiyan running a tad faster when he won last time. But he had the race to himself there whereas this was a three way contest between a group of unusually smart juveniles at the finish.

Jumbo Rio held off the renewed challenge of Ebadiyan and has now won both his outings over timber. There is a slight concern that he is bred for mud and has scored his two hurdle wins on soft ground. But he did win the Apprentice Derby (always a strong race) at the Curragh on a fast surface on the flat. So he should be able to handle the likely quicker ground at Cheltenham. He's a good looking sort and must have a real shot of taking the Triumph.

MOURAD (37) has lost narrowly to Jumbo Rio on both his hurdles starts to date. He had smart form on the flat so I imagine his connections will be keen to keep him fresh for the that game and retain his novice status for next jumps season if he loses the Triumph. If they do the experience he's gained this season will give him a valuable edge in novice hurdles early next term.

READY TO ROCKNROLL (28) looks to be another horse to bear in mind for next season. He was the biggest horse in the line up and looks to have the build for chasing. He was good enough to win a fair juvenile hurdle in mud at Gowran Park but lacked the pace to go with the principles up the straight here. I see him improving when he gets the chance to go over fences.

COUSIN VINNY'S JUMPING MAKES HIM VULNERABLE

COUSIN VINNY (40) would almost certainly have won the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown if he hadn't fallen at the last. However I wouldn't go taking the short prices now being offered about him winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham. Smart as he is, Cousin Vinny clearly has a problem with his jumping, and I don't see the problem being fixed any time soon.

Cousin Vinny showed an astonishing turn of foot to win a Punchestown Bumper on his racecourse debut a year ago. I wrote at the time that he probably ran a faster final furlong and a half than any NH horse all season. His acceleration won him the two big Bumper races last season at the Punchestown and Cheltenham Festivals. But in all four of his three hurdles starts so far he's been hesitant at a few jumps. On his run before this, when he was sprinting coming up to the last, he made a pretty serious error. He repeated the error here. The difference is this time he couldn't recover and came down.

Yes Cousin Vinny was cruising alongside Pandorama when he came down. But to say he would have won if he hadn't fallen is like saying my car could fly if it had wings. Cousin Vinny lacks the ability to clear a hurdle at real speed as much as my car lacks wings. My feeling right now though is that he is basically a flat racer with a terrific turn of foot that hasn't got the hang of jumping hurdles and quite possibly never will. He can produce a terrific burst of speed but he can't jump as fast as he can run.

Recent racing history is replete with smart Bumper horses that failed to show the same form over hurdles. Some went on to become smart when switched to the flat, and I'd certainly like to see Cousin Vinny try flat racing if he continues to jump so sketchily. Right now I can't bet that he'll jump well enough to win a Grade 1 over timber, certainly not in the huge field he'll face at Cheltenham. He'll have to fight for position at each jump and will surely be stretched into mistakes.

PANDORAMA (40) is an incredibly deep chested, heavy-topped chasing sort that set a good pace and just kept on rolling. He's earned a string of huge speed ratings from me and looks one of the best prospects we've seen in the jumping game for years. But it does look like he needs cut in the ground to produce his best, so I rather doubt that we'll be seeing him at Cheltenham unless the ground is a whole lot softer than it normally is for the Festival. Even then you'd have to worry how well a horse as big as him would come down the hill. The safest thing to do is to skip the big meeting unless it rains heavily and save Pandorama for chasing next term. If he's kept away from fast ground, short distances and Cheltenham I can see him building up a long string of wins.

COOLDINE HAS BIG CHANCE IN RSA CHASE - IF HE GETS HIS GROUND

I'm going to be rather interested in the odds that the bookies offer about the number of Irish winners at Cheltenham this year. It seems to me that Ireland has a serious shot of beating its best ever score at the big meeting. I say this because Ireland seems strong in basically every division, even ones that the British normally dominate such as novice chases.

Further evidence for this was provided when COOLDINE (39) and FORPADYDEPLATERER (38) fought out the finish of the Grade 1 Dr P. J. Moriarty Novices' Chase at Leopardstown.

I'm now warming to the idea of Forpadydeplasterer as an Arkle candidate following his performance at Leopardstown. Previously I thought he'd be better suited to the three miles of the RSA Chase. But Cooldine did seem to outstay him in the closing stages here, so it could well be that the five furlong cut back in trip will be okay given that Cheltenham is such a testing track.

Ideally of course I'd like to see a two and a half mile Grade 1 for novice chasers at the Cheltenham Festival. They introduced the Ryanair to fill in the gap between the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup for experienced chasers, so it would seem a logical move to do the same for the novices and five two and a half milers like Forpadydeplasterer a Grade 1 target over the right trip.

Forpadydeplasterer jumped exceptionally well as ever, and his jumping will be a big asset in the crowded field at Cheltenham.

Cooldine is clearly a very smart horse with cut in the ground. He's now won the last seven times he's run on yielding or softer ground at two and a quarter miles or more. Normally I would be betting against him getting his ground at Cheltenham. But the weather has been so bad this year that as the meeting approaches I'm thinking we might just get a repeat of last year's yielding going at the Festival.

Cooldine ran about as fast here as you normally see a novice chaser go beyond two and a half miles. He's a good looking horse that will hopefully be contesting the big three mile chases for many years to come.

NEPTUNES COLLONGES TOUGH TO BEAT WHEN IT'S NOT SOFT

I oppose NEPTUNE COLLONGES (41) with some confidence in the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Leopardstown because I was convinced he wouldn't handle the soft ground. When trainer Paul Nicholls voiced similar concerns I felt even better about siding against him But as it turned out race times indicate the going was actually only yielding, and Neptune Collonges has shown that he can handle that in the past. He ended up putting up a solid performance to score in good time.

Neptunes Collonges has now won nine of the ten times he's run on what race times indicate was yielding or faster ground. I know that Nicholls feels the horse is not at his best at Cheltenham but I'm beginning to get rather interested in his Gold Cup chances, especially if we get a smallish field for the race.

NOTRE PERE (39) ran a big race to finish second. But he showed once more here that he just doesn’t have the kind of acceleration it takes to beat Gold Cup horses over three miles. He's an out and out stayer.

THYNE AGAIN showed that he doesn't stay three miles. But I'd still like to see him given a shot over two and a half rather than being cut back to two miles for the Champion Chase.

THE LISTENER ran another clunker, tiring badly to produce his worst ever run. It looks like he's not the horse he was. Previously he was unbeatable over two and a half miles and very decent over three. But now he's suffered his first two defeats over the shorter trip and got beat a distance twice in his last few starts.

GLENFINN CAPTAIN GETS INTERESTING FOR CHELTENHAM

GLENFINN CAPTAIN (37) nearly died of colic and was off for almost a year. And it looks like he was simply not himself when he came back last term but is now back to his best. Toss out his runs from last season and his record might well show eight wins from his other nine completed starts at less than three miles if he hadn't made a catastrophic blunder at the last in the Kinloch Brae Chase.

Glenfinn Captain jumped really well and shown a terrific turn of foot to win his first two races impressively this season. Each time he finished the race with his ears pricked and full of running. He clearly didn't stay the three miles in the Lexus Chase but might well have beaten a Grade 1 winner in CAILIN ALAINN (38) if Barry Geraghty hadn't lost his irons when Glenfinn Captain smashed the last. He kept on well and only got beat two lengths.

I guess Glenfinn Captain will have too much weight to make the Racing Post Plate a viable option at the Cheltenham Festival. But I'm not at all convinced that he should be as big as 50-1 for the Ryanair. He might well be good enough to at least place there.

Since the Kinloch Brae was put back a couple of weeks it has attracted better fields. In fact Cailin Alainn was the eighth Grade 1 winner in the last nine runnings to score.

It seems to me that, like many mares, Cailin Alainn is not that good at fighting for position at a fence against bigger male rivals. She did win a mares chase in a big field and also broke her maiden over fences in a 15 runner contest. Ideally though I suspect she's at her best in fields smaller than twelve over the bigger jumps. She's been wonderfully consistent in such circumstances.

PONMEOATH (32) was moving really well on the home turn and made a bold move around the outside to challenge. But it looked like things were happening just a bit too quickly for him over the two and a half miles. He was stretched into jumping a bit slow at a couple of the fences when he moved up. Then the first two just ran away from him up the straight.

Ponmeoath's five wins have all come around tracks eleven furlongs or less in circumference. This makes him look rather interesting for that three mile handicap chase they have on the Mildmay course at the Aintree Festival.

I've come up with all sorts of theories to explain the form of ONE COOL COOKIE (28) in the past. But the way he ran here suggests that a very simple explanation is the most likely. I think he is what American punters call a 'need to lead' front runner. He's won six of the last seven times he's been able to establish an early lead over less than three miles and finished second in his sole loss.

Here Baltiman and then Knight Legend denied One Cool Cookie the lead. He fought his way back approaching the straight but then faded.

Need to lead front runners are tough to predict because pace itself is such a hard thing to predict. But the next time One Cool Cookie is in a race where no early speed is lined up I'll be interested in his chances.

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET SHOULDN'T GO TO CHELTENHAM

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (41) ran his best race yet when taking the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown. But I share the concerns his trainer has already expressed about running the horse at Cheltenham. He shows a lot of knee action and is a top heavy sort. So I find it hard to see how he'll handle the long downhill section approaching the straight or the likely faster surface. It's surely best to keep Mikael D'Haguenet to softer ground and less steep gradients as he could so easily injure himself. Besides he's a proper chasing sort that could be contesting the top chases for years to come if properly handled. Pushing him now to win a few more hurdles just doesn't make sense.

Mikael D'Haguenet made much of his own running here to ensure a decent test of stamina. But the pace still picked up noticeably when runner up DONNAS PALM (38) moved alongside half a mile out and made a spirited and sustained bid to get past. As he did so the pair surged clear of the rest.

Donnas Palm ended up tiring as a result of his effort and would surely have finished a closer second if he'd been ridden for that position instead of trying to beat the winner. My feeling is that since he's a relatively light-framed, rather nippy sort that shows little knee action he'll be suited to a much faster surface.

I don't know why Donnas Palm ran that one dreadful race at Leopardstown. But the fact it was followed by a five week break suggests to me that there was something wrong that day, and that he might well have needed this comeback race.

Previously Donnas Palm looked unlucky when losing the Royal Bond in a photo to Hurricane Fly. I'm still convinced that he'd have won that race if the early pace hadn't been so slow. So I find it hard to understand why Hurricane Fly is favourite for the Supreme Novices while Donnas Palm is as big as 40-1 and even 50-1.

BIG ZEB HAS A REAL SHOT IN CHAMPION CHASE

MANSONY (40) made it seven wins from eight Irish starts on soft or heavy ground below two and a half miles when taking the Grade 2 Amazing Thailand Chase at Punchestown. But it's hard to escape the conclusion that BIG ZEB (42) would have beaten him comfortably if he hadn't crashed out at the second last.

Mansony had set a really strong pace and wasn't stopping. But he was being ridden along vigorously whereas Big Zeb's rider was sitting motionless with a double handful. He'd closed up dramatically on Mansony and his jockey was so confident of passing that one he was looking over his shoulder for dangers other than the leader.

I've rated Big Zeb as being a four length winner and that means he's bang there with Master Minded on the clock.

So far Big Zeb has run in five hurdles and chases over less than two and a quarter miles. And his only defeat other than this was a close second to one of the top hurdlers Sizing Europe.

I'm fervently hoping that Master Minded has a hard race at Newbury in the Game Spirit as that would give Big Zeb a valuable edge in freshness for the Champion Chase - assuming the Irish horse doesn't run before the big one, which now looks unlikely. The 10-1 plus you can get about his chances ante-post looks awfully tempting to me.