VIC VENTURI IS GOLD CUP CLASS IN SMALL FIELDS ON SOFT GROUND

VIC VENTURI (41) clocked a time that puts him within shouting distance of the best three mile chasers when winning the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase by eight lengths. He was cruising around the home turn and had all his rivals under pressure by then. His stablemate Black Apalachi stayed on to take second but Vic Venturi was always well in control.

Vic Venturi is an excellent jumper and has even won over the National fences. But he's a bit below average size and this surely makes it hard for him to fight for position in big fields.

He did win a twelve runner point to point where only three of his rivals finished. But under rules Vic Venturi has lost all twelve chases he's contested with nine or more runners. His record in smaller fields however has been brilliant on soft and heavy ground. He would have won all five times he's run in chases with eight or fewer runners on soft or heavy ground if one photo in a Grade 3 had gone his way.

I recognise that the big objective for Vic Venturi is the Grand National. But there will be around fourty runners in that race and Vic Venturi will be set to carry at least 11-6 in a race where all 103 horses carrying 11-2 or more have lost in the last 25 runnings. I'd like to see him given a shot at the Guinness Gold Cup afterwards at Punchestown. There's a fair shot he'll get his ground in that race which often attracts a small field.

Runner up BLACK APALACHI (38) also has 11-6 at Aintree. And despite the weight I wouldn't entirely dismiss his chances of winning - assuming he goes straight to the Liverpool race.

Black Apalachi doesn't take a lot of racing according to his trainer, and his form bears this out. So far all his wins but one have come on one of his first two starts of the season or with a five week break between his completed starts thereafter. Before this smart run he'd won six of the twelve times he's run on the soft ground he seems to need in these circumstances. Here he was staying on strongly at the finish and has always looked more of a marathon runner than his stablemate to me.

NOTRE PERE (34) would have been a distant, tiring third but for unseating his rider at the last. He's a great big tank of a horse that has an excellent record in big fields. He's won the last six times he's encountered the soft or heavy ground he needs in fields of twelve or more but lost all eleven times he's run in races with fewer runners.

I think it's not just the stronger pace which big fields generate that suits Notre Pere (due to his dreadful lack of acceleration). His big size gives him an edge in the traffic that develops in big fields too. Next time he hits a big field on soft or heavy ground I'll be wary of opposing him. He's a dual Grade 1 winner that's tough to beat in these circumstances.

ALAIVAN STILL LOOKS A DODGY PROPOSITION FOR TRIUMPH

ALAIVAN (36) had pulled too hard to last home when tiring badly at Leopardstown over Christmas. So it was logical his jockey dropped him right out in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse last Saturday.

This time Alaivan consented to settle. He was moving well but had a dozen lengths to make up with only a couple behind him at the fourth last. From there he moved through smoothly to take the lead and simply strolled clear up the straight without any pressure at all.

I concede this was impressive and that Alaivan would almost certainly have been able to run a good deal faster if he'd been pressed. However I'm still worried about such a keen, speedy sort lasting home up the hill at Cheltenham. And, like a lot of keen sorts, he may well be best fresher than he will be at Cheltenham. Since losing his racecourse debut he's won all four times he's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more and lost both times he hasn't. Smart as he is, with less than a four week break before the Triumph I'm happy to oppose him.

SHAKERVILZ IS A SMART TWO MILER

There was a lot to like about the performance of SHAKERVILZ (40) in winning the Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan. He kept going strongly after disputing the lead at a very good pace throughout and refused to let his only jumping error of the race at the last stop him. He ground out a win in seriously fast time.

If only he were a bit bigger I'd give Shakervilz a serious shot in the Arkle. But I think his below average size means he's always going to be at this best in single figure fields. He did win a maiden hurdle in a big field against inferior opposition. He also won an eleven runner race where five of his rivals pulled up. However I can't fancy him to handle a big field over fences until he's shown he can do it.

Long term I see Shakervilz being a threat to pretty much anything over two miles, and we know he stays longer. So any time he finds himself in a race with less than ten runners I'd be wary of opposing him.

The way that MAJOR FINNEGAN (39) consented to settle a close third for most of the way and rallied strongly to take second close home suggests that he might have some sort of chance in the Arkle. But the way he ran still suggests he likes bowling along in the lead or very close to it. And this is always going to be a problem in races with big fields like the Arkle where the early pace tends to be frantic. Still, he is improving and could well be capable of taking a big novice chase before the season is out.

I'm beginning to think that third placed OSANA (39) is a jumps version of Norse Dancer. Norse Dancer earned stacks of huge speed and handicap ratings and placed in masses of big races. But somehow he managed to lose all 28 times he ran in Group 1 and Group 2 company.

Until his last couple of starts he was almost unbeatable below that level - winning four out of five.

Osana has won only once in eleven tries in Listed and Graded company but scored six of the last seven times he's run below that level.

Actually it could be lack of stamina rather than class that caused Osana to wilt on the run in here and in other races.

I was always suspicious of Osana's stamina over hurdles. Two of his three hurdle wins were on tight tracks. The other came on firm ground. The seven times he ran over timber on galloping tracks with cut in the ground he lost.

You could argue that Osana has proven he can produce his best on soft ground around a galloping course by winning his first two chase starts at Navan. But in both those races he was allowed to set a moderate early pace before sprinting for home.

The same was true last time when Osana was allowed to set a moderate pace till halfway. This should have given him a big advantage in the sprint for home but he tired and was booked for a modest third till Captain Cee Bee tipped up at the last. Here he gave way rapidly on the run in.

If Osana is going to win anything big this season I reckon it will be the big Grade 1 novice chase over two miles at the Aintree Festival. The tight course there should suit him admirably and enable him to last home better than he did here.

SORCEROR (32) had been beaten just three quarters of a length by Shakervilz on his previous start and moved really well for a long way here. He looked green and difficult to ride in the closing stages as the principals kicked away from him. I'm thinking he needs a bigger field to obtain more cover. His physique and that three mile point to point win also suggest he wants to go a longer trip.

DON'T WRITE OFF NINETIETH MINUTE FOR WORLD HURDLE

All sorts of weird things can stop a horse winning: An alligator once brought down the favourite on the home turn at Tropical Park; a rutting stag took the leader out of a race at Ayr; a guard dog brought another horse down at Turffontein. Flocks of geese, drunken men in Santa suits, clumps of mud, even laser beams have been involved in other highly improbable mid-race interventions. But I confess I've never seen before what happened to NINETIETH MINUTE (35) in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan.

Until they got to the far side things had gone well with Ninetieth Minute. He was moving strongly just off the pace when all of a sudden the bandage on his off hind leg began to unravel.

The bandage got longer and longer and flailed around wildly. Ninetieth Minute looked almost hobbled for about two furlongs as he tried to avoid stepping on it. Eventually it came away just before the homestraight but by then Ninetieth Minute still looked to be striding a bit wrong. He chugged on for third but the odd incident clearly compromised his chances.

Until his previous outing I found it hard to understand Ninetieth Minute. It was obvious from his trainer's comments, his physique and burly appearance in the paddock off long breaks that he was a big, gross horse that needed a reasonably recent run. But in between his other brilliant runs barring those off long breaks were a couple of inexplicably bad performances at Cork.

Then came Ninetieth Minute's flop at Leopardstown when he tired badly and the vet reported after the race he was blowing hard.

Leopardstown and Cork are both dead flat tracks, and they're the only dead flat tracks Ninetieth Minute has ever raced on. Clearly he needs gradients to break up the gallop and give him the occasional breather running downhill, otherwise he tires.

Toss out his runs off breaks of three months plus and his three runs on dead flat tracks and Ninetieth Minute's remaining five runs before the Boyne Hurdle showed four wins and a neck second in a Grade 1, the Hatton's Grace Hurdle.

Ninetieth Minute would obviously have won the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle if he hadn't smashed the last and landed on all fours, losing a lot of momentum. The run showed once more that he's a very smart horse.

Former Gold Cup winner WAR OF ATTRITION (38) won the Boyne Hurdle. And it's interesting to note that he's now won all six times he's run 2m 5f or 2m 6f. But he only scrambled home in a photo from a five year old, and five year olds just don't win the top staying hurdles. I don't think he's quite the force he once was.

Six runs back he beat Solwhit into second place at Thurles. That one certainly franked the form by taking going on to take five Grade 1's.

Last year Ninetieth Minute won the Coral Cup impressively at the Cheltenham Festival. He'll be up against some very smart horses in the World Hurdle, but I wouldn't mind having a bit on him each way at the enormous odds you can currently get for him.

DOES CAPTAIN CEE BEE JUMP WELL ENOUGH TO WIN THE ARKLE?

Until I watched CAPTAIN CEE BEE (38) win the Opera Hat Novices' Chase at Naas I was happy to put his last fence fall at Leopardstown down to the fact he couldn't get his legs under him fast enough in what was a sprint finish. Now though I'm concerned.

Captain Cee Bee got over the fences all right at Naas. But he was kind of scrappy over a few of them and wasn't pinging them at speed in the way you'd expect of a potential Arkle winner. And once more he made a mistake at the last, though he recovered from it this time.

This was certainly an impressive performance by Captain Cee Bee. When the runner up went wide in search of better ground turning in he surged forward from three lengths behind to be two lengths ahead in a few strides with very little effort. And he continued in cruise control to win the race with a good deal in hand. However his moderate jumping persuaded me that he's worth opposing at Cheltenham.

Another concern is that there is only 38 days between this race and the Arkle. Horses that have bled in the past like Captain Cee Bee are invariably best fresh. 38 days may be a long enough break. But it's still a concern because despite the apparent ease of his win this race must have taken a fair bit out of him because he ran a fast time. You have to wonder whether he'll recover in time.

Since triple Champion Hurdle winner Sir Ken won the Arkle back in 1956 I estimate there have been 44 runners in the race aged nine or more (assuming the same proportion of older runners have contested the race as have done so in the last twenty years). Only one of the 44 won (Danish Flight). I'm now inclined to believe that Captain Cee Bee is not going to score another rare Arkle win for the older generation.

YES DUNGUIB IS THAT GOOD

I'm going to stop trying to find reasons to oppose DUNGUIB (42) following his win in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novices Hurdle at Leopardstown. He came from last place to cruise past a hard driven rivals with his jockey barely having to move a muscle. The time he clocked was extraordinarily fast for a novice and it's hard to believe he couldn't have pulled out a few more lengths if his jockey had asked him.

The run endorses the widespread belief that Dunguib is a good thing to take the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham (though I still rate Menorah just as fast). It also raises the strong possibility that the runner up FIONNEGAS (41) has a great chance of winning one of the longer Grade 1 novice events at the big meeting.

Fionnegas was held up off the searching early gallop and then came through to kick on shortly after entering the straight. He never looked to have a prayer of shaking off the brilliant winner but pulled eleven lengths clear of the rest of a smart field in his efforts to do so.

Fionnegas is a deep chested, pretty big three mile chasing sort that shows a bit of knee action. So there has to be a concern that he could have a problem if the ground comes up fast at Cheltenham. I imagine if it does he'll be steered towards the three mile rather than the 2m 5f race and this is why trainer Willie Mullins wants to give him both options.

Next season Fionnegas is going to make a terrific novice chaser. Meanwhile, even if he doesn't get a bit of cut in the ground, I'm going to be wary of opposing him at Cheltenham. On genuinely yielding or softer ground I'd rate him a near banker.

COOLDINE HAS A REAL CHANCE IN GOLD CUP

Almost everyone seems to think that the Cheltenham Gold Cup is a match between Denman and Kauto Star. But I've been convinced for some while that Imperial Commander also has a major chance. Now, after last week's Hennessy, I think there's a fourth runner that could well win in COOLDINE (36).

It is easy to criticise jockeys. But I have to wonder why Ruby Walsh didn't ask Cooldine to set a much stronger gallop in the Hennessy given that four of his six rivals (including the eventual first and third) were doubtful stayers. As it is he went so slow Cooldine barely had enough momentum to clear the sixth fence and belted it hard, losing a lot of momentum.

It was only after halfway that Cooldine gradually wound up the pace and this left the useful two and a half milers Joncol and Schindlers Hunt with enough energy to challenge him. He beat off Schindlers Hunt but Joncol got up to beat him close home.

To be fair, trainer Willie Mullins said after the race that Cooldine would come on for the run. So I imagine Walsh was keen not to ask too much of his mount on such testing ground lest he blow up through lack of fitness.

In any event it seems clear to me that Cooldine is now rounding back into the same form that made him such a brilliant novice chaser last season.

Cooldine had an infection when losing at the Punchestown Festival and that he coughed after his flop at Leopardstown last time. Before that he'd won eight out eight over two and a quarter miles plus before April (he never seems to hold his form after March). And he'd shown tremendous form. So it makes perfect sense that a positive sign from the trainer should trigger a massive public response.

Let's not forget Cooldine really was a fantastic novice chaser last season. In fact no novice chaser in the last fourteen years has earned a bigger Racing Post rating over two and a half miles or more than he did winning the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Racing Post ratings are not that good a guide on the flat as the weight allowances and weight for age formula skew them massively and the horses have run so little many of the biggest ratings are highly speculative. Over jumps though this is not the case and Racing Post ratings are far more reliable.

You can see what I mean when you consider the five highest Racing Post ratings earned by novice chasers over two and a half miles plus in the last fourteen years;

Cooldine 170

Looks Like Trouble 170

Denman 169

Best Mate 167

Florida Pearl 167

Three of the other four top rated novices went on to win the Gold Cup. The only one that didn't was Florida Pearl won stacks of Grade 1's.

You might argue that despite being sick Cooldine really should have done better than finish pulled up on his seasonal debut in the Lexus Chase just after Christmas. But actually he did go well for a long way. And it's worth bearing in mind that no horse has won a Grade 1 chase on its seasonal debut in December or later in the last fourteen years (which is as far back as I can trace).

In addition it's very rare for a horse to win the first time it tackles experienced chasers in a three mile Grade 1. Looks Like Trouble had to be pulled up the first time he did so in the King George. But that didn't stop him winning the Gold Cup on his very next Grade 1 try.

Cooldine is peaking at exactly the right time for Cheltenham. The 14-1 you can get about his chances for the big race looks way too big to me.

JONCOL (36) was ideally suited by the very soft ground as he's a huge, heavy topped horse that hits the ground hard. It does seem sensible to skip Cheltenham with him as the ground would likely be too quick, and I don't like the idea of him trying to come down that long steep hill before the straight. Horses hit their legs harder on downhill stretches, and that's something which could be dangerous for such a big horse on fast ground.

I doubt that Joncol will get a slow enough pace to win another Grade 1 over three miles. But he's won all four times he's run two and a half miles and will be a threat to win against pretty much anything whenever he gets his ground over that trip.

SCHINDLERS HUNT (34) has now lost the last nineteen pattern races he's contested. But he went well for a long way here, demonstrating how smart he is when his stamina isn't unduly tested. He's a smart horse around two and a half miles on easy courses and continues to look a very good prospect for the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree, a race he lost by only a head last year.

NOTRE PERE (31) has almost no acceleration. So it was inevitable that he would start floundering once the gallop picked up. As I've noted before he has a terrific record in big fields as they pretty much guarantee a strong early pace. In fact Notre Pere has lost all ten times he's run in races with less than twelve runners and won seven of the last nine times he's run in fields of twelve or more.

In addition Notre Pere does seem to need softer ground to produce his best. The form figures for his last seven races where he's encountered soft or heavy ground in fields of twelve or more read 1121111.

MONEY TRIX (30) ran his worst race in years. I can only assume the slow early pace was against him too.

DON'T GIVE UP ON ZAARITO

It must be horribly frustrating to own ZAARITO (38). But for falling three times and making a mistake at the last when a neck second to Captain Cee Bee he might well have won all five of his chase starts.

Things finally seemed to be going Zaarito's way when he closed up quickly two out and was cruising approaching the last in the Grade 1 Dr P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown. But he misjudged the final obstacle and once more came crashing down.

I wouldn't give up on Zaarito. Faster ground is going to be available as Spring approaches and I fancy he'll do a whole lot better on it. He'll get more bounce out of the ground to clear the fences. He'll also be able to use the terrific turn of foot he showed when winning all those Bumper races.

BIG ZEB DESERVES A LOT MORE RESPECT

Many racing pundits seem to be moving towards the view that BIG ZEB (43) is not as good in Britain as he is in Ireland. This is why he's still available at a price as big as 7-1 for the Champion Chase despite hosing up in the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown in exceptionally fast time.

The arguement seems to be that Big Zeb just can't jump British fences effectively. As I see it this is baloney. British fences claim far fewer fallers than the ones in Ireland. They're clearly softer not harder.

For example 9.55% of steeplechase runners at Punchestown have fallen over the last fourteen years compared with 6.86% at Cheltenham and 5.65% at Sandown.

The only reason Big Zeb has jumped poorly at Cheltenham and Sandown is that he didn't go to either course fresh enough. The vast majority of top two mile chasers need pretty lengthy breaks before their runs in order to build up the glycogen supplies in their fast twitch muscles that they use to ping the fences at speed. That's my theory anyway, and I've seen plenty of evidence for it over the years.

Big Zeb certainly pinged the fences at Punchestown off an eight week break. They're big and stiff but he made them look like hurdles as he skimmed over the top of every jump at remarkable speed.

It is this ability to hurdle fences at tremendous speed that invariably sets the best two mile chasers apart from their rivals. It enables them to gain lengths in the air, as Big Zeb demonstrated several times at Punchestown. I concede that Master Minded doesn't do this. He often stands off at his jumps, but this is unusual.

Big Zeb is at least as good as Master Minded according to my speed ratings. He proved this when losing by only a head to Paul Nicholls charge at the Punchestown Festival, where a bad mistake at the last surely cost him victory.

I can't see why Master-Minded is still favourite for the Champion Chase. Thanks to that fractured rib, he will be trying to win without having had a run since November, something no winner of the race has achieved in at least the last twenty years (as far back as I can check). Master Minded will also be trying to become only the second horse ever to win three Champion Chases on the back of an interrupted preparation. Contrast this with Big Zeb who will be going there fresh and well following a highly impressive success.

The horses that Big Zeb beat in the Tied Cottage were no slouches either. Runner up GOLDEN SILVER (39) had won all four times he'd run two miles and a furlong or less outside of a very stiff track in the previous four years. And third placed MANSONY (39) had built up a fantastic record on heavy ground in short chases. Before this run Mansony had contested seven steeplechases on heavy or soft to heavy ground at trips shorter than two and a half miles. His form figures in those seven races read 1111113, with that sole loss being a promising effort last time.

I'm not quite sure where Golden Silver goes from here. Logically he should skip Cheltenham as his record says he's most unlikely to last home up the stiff uphill finish. By avoiding the Champion Chase at Cheltenham he'd be fresh for the Punchestown Festival.

Mansony on the other hand probably needs to be persevered with while the ground is in his favour. If he were mine I'd be looking at the Cashel Chase at Thurles later this month as it's right-handed, which he prefers, and the 2m 2f distance is probably his optimum.

THIS COULD BE THE YEAR FOR SNOWY MORNING AT AINTREE

The character of the Kinloch Brae Chase has been altered in recent years. When it was run in mid February it used to be a pretty weak contest. But by moving it back a couple of weeks the organisers have turned it into a proper trial for the Cheltenham Festival. As a result in each of the last nine runnings there have been at least two runners that had previously earned Racing Post ratings higher than 150 in one of their last three starts. In the previous five runnings there was only one year when a single horse had ever earned a Racing Post rating that big.

The heightened competitiveness of the Kinloch Brae Chase has ensured that it takes a smart horse to win it. Seven of the last eight winners previously scored in Grade 1 company. The exception had reached the first three in four Grade 1 events.

If you tighten up on the stats you can turn the stats into a pretty powerful system for picking the winner of the Kinloch Brae. All you have to do is bet the runners that had previously won a Grade 1 and had earned a Racing Post rating bigger than 150 in one of their last three starts.

There haven't been many such runners in the race. Over the last fourteen runnings (as far back as I can check) these are the Kinloch Brae runners which matched this profile:

2010 Newmill WON 11-2

One Cool Cookie fifth

2009 One Cool Cookie fourth

2008 Hi Cloy WON 6-1

One Cool Cookie second

2007 Forget The Past WON evens

2006 Newmill WON 5-1

Hi Cloy fourth

2005 Central House second

Native Upmanship fifth

2004 Native Upmanship WON 1-3

2003 Native Upmanship WON 1-4

2002 Native Upmanship WON 4-7

1997 Merry Gale WON 9-4

This year the stats got it right once more with Newmill.

There were a whole slew of front runners entered and their jockeys were clearly wary of taking each other on and going too fast. As a result the early pace was slow. They reached the fourth fence 4.1 seconds later than the runners did in the following mares novice chase over the same distance. From the fourth though Philip Redmond decided not to hang about any longer and kicked on with Florida Express to open up a big lead.

The jockey on NEWMILL (39), John Joseph Murphy, didn't want to be caught napping. So six out he sent his mount up to gain rapidly and head off the front runner. He kept going well from there, fairly pinging the last few fences to hold on by three lengths from the persistent Snowy Morning.

I'm basing my speed rating for the race on the time they took to get home from the fourth and this indicates that Newmill was only two or three lengths per mile off his very best.

I confess that I don't know quite why Newmill is staging a revival at twelve years of age after losing eighteen times in a row. But he's always peaked in the second half of the season, so I can see him winning again. Though I concede he's going to be hard to place.

The horse that really interests me is the runner up SNOWY MORNING (38). He's improved with every run this season and looks set to get to the Grand National in the best form of his life.

It's easy to knock Snowy Morning. You could say he's not quite up to pattern class because he's lost the last seventeen Listed and Graded races he's contested while winning ten of his last thirteen starts below that class. But this is unfair. For the last three seasons Snowy Morning's entire campaign has been geared around the Grand National and history shows you have to sacrifice other races to have a real shot of winning the Aintree marathon. None of the last 26 Grand National winners has carried more than 11-1 to victory. For a horse smart enough to win the big race to get in with a weight that low it needs to lose pretty much every chase it contests in the run up to the contest. And nowadays this means running over hurdles or inadequate distances to keep their official rating down.

If Snowy Morning can get into the Grand National on his current handicap mark or lower he should be able to carry 11-1 or less. Seeing that he lights up the board on the stats for the big race I reckon the 40-1 you can currently get about his chances is rather generous.

LUSKA LAD PROBABLY BEST IN SMALLER FIELDS FOR NOW

There was a lot to like about the performance of LUSKA LAD (38) at Punchestown last Sunday. He traveled well in second off a very strong early pace, quickened impressively to close the gap approaching the straight and won decisively to clock a fast time while still moving strong as they crossed the line.

The concern for me is that Luska Lad continues to be a free running sort that is sketchy at his jumps. He jumped several hurdles slightly sideways which got me wondering how well he would have cleared them if he'd been more crowded than he was in this five runner contest.

I note with interest that Luska Lad has now won five times out of six in fields of eight or less around the right handed tracks that he favours. His sole loss came at Down Royal where it looks like he failed to get home due to the uphill finish.

I know he won in a big field when taking a Bumper and a maiden hurdle. But at this stage my feeling is that Luska Lad needs around eight runners or less to reproduce his best form. And I'd be dubious about his chances of lasting beyond two miles or on a stiff track despite the fact he's by Flemensfirth.

My gut feel from watching Luska Lad is that he's a smart two mile chaser in the making. He has the build to do well over the bigger jumps and possesses serious pace. In addition now that he's running over hurdles in good company and going fast every time I'd bet on him producing his best when freshened up with a break of five weeks plus after his first couple of starts each term. His trainer seems to think the same way and plans on resting him till the Punchestown Festival.

Last time out, after he fell over hurdles at left-handed Naas, Luska Lad proceeded to jump the last two fences. I think that will prove a sign of things to come and bet he does well over two miles next term in novice chases. This season his trainer is surely right to say his best chance of further big race success lies at the Punchestown Festival.

SALUDOS (36) set a strong pace while jumping boldly and had everything but the winner in trouble from a long way out. Unfortunately he landed too steeply when asked for a big jump at the last and lost quite a bit of momentum. He would never have beaten the winner but would have finished a couple of lengths closer but for this.

I recognise that Saludos tired badly the only time he ran beyond two miles. However I have to say he has the build of a horse that wants two and a half miles plus. His lack of finishing speed and the way he keeps on strongly at the end of his races certainly points in this direction too, as does his pedigree.

Saludos jumps really well and has the physique to do well over fences. I see him doing well over the bigger jumps next term. Meanwhile, since he keeps on improving and running one big race after another, I'd be cautious about opposing him wherever he runs. My suspicion is that he's yet to show us just how good he is.