AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS COULD BE GOLD CUP CLASS

AFISTFULLOFDOLLARS (39) produced an impressive display to win the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. He disputed the lead from a long way out, kicked on at the top of the hill then came home clear to win with his ears pricked despite making an almighty hash of the third last.

When he scrambled home at Thurles back in 2004 Afistfullofdollars' jockey said the track was too tight for the horse. Sure enough Afistfullofdollars has lost both times he's returned to Thurles. But he's yet to lose beyond two miles anywhere else.

This was a seriously good performance by Afistfullofdollars. It looked like he could have gone a bit faster and posted a time that would give him a shot against Gold Cup horses. I can understand why trainer Noel Meade was disappointed afterwards that he hadn't entered him in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. But he'll certainly be an interesting contender for the Totesport Bowl at Aintree and the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown.

We all know what race the runner-up HEDGEHUNTER (37) is being trained for. And he's certainly improving with every run as his fourth bid for the Grand National approaches. The stats say he's got too much weight to win the big race again. But he's looking increasingly likely to run yet another great race at Aintree.

It's a shame SNOWY MORNING (36) ran a bit below his best and was making a respiratory noise. Maybe he'll do better on faster ground at Aintree, especially if he's kept fresh for the race. But on balance you really want to be betting a clean winded horse to win over four and a half miles. So I'll be inclined to pass Snowy Morning over now despite his smart form prior to this run.

ONE COOL COOKIE (35) proved to my satisfaction that he simply doesn't stay three miles. He turned into the straight looking nailed on to finish a good second. But he stopped to nothing between the last two.

One Cool Cookie did win a 2m 6f race once, but it was a weak contest and very slow run. He also won a point to point over three miles. But only two other horses finished. The runner up has won just one time out of 29, and that was off a mark of just 87 in a bad chase at Kilbeggan. The third has been pulled up in all his seven subsequent starts.

Watching how he faded here I now suspect that One Cool Cookie's form is totally driven by his lack of stamina. I believe he's best at two and a half miles and probably prefers good ground because it helps him last home. He has in fact won two of the three times he's run two and a half miles on good ground and finished second to the smart Justified in his sole loss.

QUEVEGA MAY WELL BE THE BEST JUVENILE

QUEVEGA (36) was awfully impressive when winning on her hurdles debut at Punchestown. She was always going well and it ceased to become a race when her jockey shook her up entering the straight. From there she just went 'whoosh' and surged quickly into a big lead. She surrendered about a length or two by slowing up to take the last but quickly sprinted away again on the run in to win full of running. I've little doubt that if she hadn't been hesitant at the last and a couple of other jumps she could have increased her winning margin significantly and quite possibly doubled it. If she had that would make her the fastest juvenile hurdler of this season. The way her jockey twice looked over his shoulder to see if he needed to ask his mount for more and didn't tells me she could have opened up several more lengths if required.

Quevega had won her last three starts in France and is clearly very useful. She's got a good deal more size and substance to her than most juvenile hurdlers. This is not surprising. Her dam won nothing but steeplechases (six in all at distances up to 2m 6.5f) and one of her other two winners has scored over fences. This being so it looks like Quevega is going to be more than just a one season juvenile star. I'd say she has a future over fences in time. Right now though you won't find me thinking about betting against her at the Punchestown or Fairyhouse Festivals which is apparently where she's headed. Against her own age group I just don't think this filly is going to get beat.

I wouldn't worry about the likely faster ground Quevega will be racing on in the Spring. She's got a beautiful flowing stride that's designed for firm ground. And horses with a turn of foot like hers invariably prefer quicker going.

HOW GOOD IS JERED?

It's a bit frustrating when a horse cruises home in fast time without being ridden at all. You're left to guess how fast it might have run if it had been ridden right out. This is the case with JERED (36) who won most impressively at Punchestown. Settled in 5th place, he was always moving smoothly. When the second horse BALTIMAN (35) kicked for home two out Jered should have been in trouble because Baltiman ran home from there half a second faster than in any other hurdle race on the card. He was really moving. But Jered picked him up with ease and cruised clear up the run in without his jockey moving a muscle.

Horses with the turn of foot Jered showed here invariably prefer faster ground, something confirmed by his trainer and jockey. The horse has won easily both times he's encountered yielding or faster ground over hurdles and could basically be anything. Looking at him race here it seems to me he might be best fresh as he's a bit light-framed. In addition horses that can produce speed like his often need time to recover from a race. So far his wins have come on his first two runs off a lengthy break or with a five week plus rest thereafter. But there's really not enough evidence to say for sure. All I can say is that until he's shown exactly how good he is I'll be sweating whenever I dare to oppose Jered in the near future. The race I'd be inclined to shoot for with him is the County Hurdle as he jumped fast and well here even when crowded at one of the jumps. Unlike most novices he's already learned how to jump at speed without making mistakes. He might get found out against Grade 1 horses in the Supreme Novices but against handicappers his turn of foot might just win him the County Hurdle.

Baltiman ran a really good race here. He set a stronger early pace than in any other race on the card and came home from the second last quicker than any winner of the other five hurdle races from there. He's a good-bodied sort that's built for chasing. He'll surely win another novice hurdle soon and looks certain to improve for a step up to two and half miles seeing how well he finished here after running hard early. Next year I see him as likely to improve over fences and be competitive in pattern company.

AMAZING FINISH BY COUSIN VINNY

We all try to spot Willie Mullins' best candidate for the Cheltenham Bumper at this time of year. And I have to side with those who favour COUSIN VINNY (-25) after his Punchestown win even though he clocked an incredibly slow time. This was due to a very slow early pace.

The way the race was run inevitably produced a packed field early involving plenty of traffic problems and a sprint finish. And after meeting trouble in running Cousin Vinny shouldn't really have been able to win. The field sprinted the last three and a bit furlongs (from where the second last would have been in a hurdle race) about two seconds faster than in any hurdle race on the card. This should have made it impossible for any horse to gain a significant amount of ground in the closing stages. Yet Cousin Vinny made up eight lengths in 36 strides, finishing like a quarter horse to sprint by his rivals in the closing stages.

I'd be pretty sure that if you timed the last one and a half furlongs run by every horse this season and adjusted the times for the difference in going Cousin Vinny would turn out to have produced the fastest finish of all in this race.

Maybe all Cousin Vinny can do is finish like a rocket off a very slow early gallop. But it's not normal for anything but a high class horse to show such acceleration so I'm edging towards favouring him at Cheltenham.

THYNE AGAIN NEEDS CUT IN THE GROUND

If you were unkind you might say that THYNE AGAIN (36) looks like a cart horse. Personally I think his bright chestnut colour and flashy white features afford him a strange sort of elegance. But there's no denying that the winner of last week's Grade 2 Nas Na Riogh Novices Chase is a great big beast of a horse.

Clearly a horse as big as Thyne Again is likely to get jarred up on fast ground and I should have thought of this as an explanation for his seemingly in and out form before. Now that his trainer has gone and mentioned the horse's need for fast ground it all seems rather obvious. Thyne Again won a maiden hurdle on fast ground. But since he's stepped up to better company his wins have all been achieved on what race times indicate was yielding or softer ground. In fact Thyne Again has won the last five times he's completed the course on what I rate yielding or softer ground and run below form both times he's run on anything faster recently. If he'd completed the course the one time he tipped up he'd have probably won six on the bounce with cut in the ground as he was moving like a winner at the time.

Thyne Again didn't have to produce his very best to cruise home last Sunday (he's earned a rating of 39 from me before). But he did seem to show that two and a half miles is absolutely no problem for him. In fact if he were mine I'd now be thinking in terms of next year's King George as I suspect he might well last three miles around Kempton's tight turns.

Just how good Thyne Again is I find hard to say. However he's run just a length per mile off the very best novice chaser on my speed ratings while winning easily. So chances are he will prove competitive in Grade 1 company against experienced chasers next season. For now it was good to hear his trainer Liam Burke say in regards to a possible shot at the Arkle "I don't want to leave his career for one race, so the ground would have to have some cut in it." . That's an enlightened attitude. Cheltenham isn't the be all and end all. There are other big prizes to shoot for with Thyne Again, and they're much more likely to be run on softer ground than the Arkle.

J'Y VOLE (25) went along in the lead and looked a real threat to win entering the straight. But she stopped to nothing soon after two out. I've been expecting her to regress off the series of big efforts she's put in. Not it looks like she finally has. Perhaps she'll be able to bounce back if she's rested till Aintree or Punchestown. Personally I'd prefer to see her laid off till next season. She's surely done enough to have earned that.

BEAU MICHAEL PROBABLY NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR TRIUMPH

BEAU MICHAEL (35) won a decent Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse. But the time was not good enough to make him a Triumph Hurdle candidate on my ratings. And there's no way the slow time was caused by the early pace being too slow or too fast.

Beau Michael flashed his tail when given a couple of cracks with the whip on the run in. In my experience this is not a sign that a horse is ungenuine. It simply means they're really tired and resent being asked to go faster when they're already trying their hardest.

Beau Michael seems to do best when allowed to bowl along in the lead. And like a lot of front runners he's probably best when he doesn't have too many opponents. That way he doesn't have to run too hard to get the lead. So far he's won all three times he's run in fields of eleven or less beyond a mile. His only win in eight starts in bigger fields was in a maiden hurdle.

POMME TIEPY DOES IT AGAIN

POMME TIEPY (39) continues to look very hard to beat after her smart win in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase at Navan. She made much of the running and left her rivals for dead from three out. And despite landing in a bit of a heap at the last she once again showed her trademark burst of finishing speed, coming home from the last 0.8 of a second faster than the winner did in the mile shorter Grade 2 Flyingbolt Novice Chase.

Pomme Tiepy just seems to accelerate and find more when anything tries to challenge her. Her only loss in six chase starts was a close second over a totally inadequate trip to a smart rival that's still unbeaten over fences. She's won on fast Summer jumping ground at Nancy, so the firmer ground at the Cheltenham Festival should be no problem for her. Indeed horses with a turn of foot like hers invariably prefer faster going.

I just don't see what can stop Pomme Tiepy winning the Sun Alliance Chase now. She's going to be the fastest runner in the race on my ratings, and it looks likely to me that she can run even faster than she's had to show so far.

BALLISTRAW'S WIN NO FLUKE

BALLISTRAW (38) started at 33-1 when he won the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park. But I don't think his success was a fluke at all.

It seems to me that Ballistraw may well have needed his first three runs this season. After all he had been off for a year. Throw out those three runs and his racecourse debut in a point to point (which almost all horses lose) and Ballistraw's nine remaining runs (including points) at two and a half miles plus look very good indeed. He won six of the nine and lost the other three by half a length or less, including the very valuable Paddy Power Chase last Christmas.

Ballistraw simply cruised home in this race, winning narrowly but with masses in hand, his jockey continually looking over his shoulder to ensure he didn't win by too big a margin.

I have no doubt that Ballistraw would have earned a rating of 39 or 40 from me here if he'd been ridden out. That makes him look a very interesting contender for more big races this season. He's a pretty big, rather heavy-topped horse and I guess this is why he's been kept to soft ground for all his starts. I like his chances of winning something very decent before the season is out when he gets his ground.

It's hard to know what to say about the runner up KNIGHT LEGEND (38) as he's almost boringly consistent. This doesn't do him any favours with the handicapper. But in conditions races he would have been finishing in the first two for the twelfth time in a row in his completed starts here but for losing second by a neck in the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase last time.

The big story of the race is the disappointing third place finish of Kicking King. On balance though I think it's too early to be writing him off. He was going like a possible winner all the way until three out and probably just blew up through lack of fitness on his second run off a two year break in a very strongly run race on heavy ground. On a quicker surface with one or two more runs under his belt I can still see him bouncing back to his old form.

CATCH ME TOUGH TO BEAT IN MUD

JAZZ MESSENGER (38) has always been a very decent horse in mud. But CATCH ME (40) showed he's that bit better by keeping on strongly to drive clear and beat him over four lengths in the Grade 2 Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran Park.

Catch Me has now completed the course eight times on what I rate genuinely soft ground. His only loss in those eight starts was a neck defeat in a Grade 1. He's run well on faster ground but is clearly better with plenty of cut.

Over hurdles Catch Me just gets to the other side of the jump any old way. But I suspect he'll tidy up his technique if he goes over fences next term. I can't fancy his chances on the likely faster ground in the Champion Hurdle. But if it came up soft at Aintree or Punchestown he could easily score another big win.

KAZAL A SMART STAYING HURDLER

KAZAL (40) ran a really good time to take the Boyne Hurdle pretty impressively at Navan. He kicked on from the seventh and steadily built up the pace from there, coming home over the last two miles just half a second slower than in the fastest race over that trip on the card.

Kazal just kept on trucking in the lead and his rivals could never get to him. He's got a big stride on him and I guess he probably does need a fair bit more cut in the ground than he's likely to get at Cheltenham. But he's never had the chance to run on fast ground yet so I wouldn't want to be too dogmatic on that point. If he could run this well at Cheltenham he'd have a real chance in the World Hurdle. He's won seven of his nine starts over timber and is clearly smart.

AITMATOV (39) has improved this season and ran yet another big race to chase Kazal home. Whether or not he'll stay the three miles in the World Hurdle I can't say (my guess is not quite). But it looks a better option than the Champion Hurdle as all his biggest speed ratings have been earned at longer trips.

FOOTY FACTS (38) ran right up to his best to take third. He has an unusually short stride, so I rather wonder whether he can act on fast ground. He certainly ran below form the only time he ran on what my going allowances say was going faster than yielding.

FREDS BENEFIT DOESN'T HAVE TO LEAD

FREDS BENEFIT (33) has shown almost unbelievable early speed in his races. I can't recall seeing a novice chaser that was able to jump fences at the speed he's shown he can. This being so I have to side with Willie Mullins who heaped lavish praise on Ruby Walsh for the way he was able to settle Freds Benefit off the pace when he won over three furlongs short of three miles last week.

The race was run in a rather unusual way, as races often are when the ground is heavy. The slowness of the ground makes it hard for jockeys to estimate the pace they're going. An early gallop that looks pretty ordinary can end up being very taxing indeed towards the end of the race. That's what seemed to happen here. The leaders reached the eighth fence a whopping 8.8 seconds earlier than they did in the other chase on the card over the same trip. From there Arrive Sir Clive and SIR JOHNNY accelerated smartly, quickly opening a big gap on their rivals as they climbed to the top of the course and began the descent. In fact from the eighth to the tenth fences they ran exactly four seconds quicker than in the other chase, meaning they reached the tenth an amazing 12.8 seconds sooner. That's close to the kind of margin Kauto Star had when he won the King George over the novices in the Feltham in the early stages. And the novices in the Feltham were visibly going a good deal slower to halfway than in the other chase on this card.

It's not really surprising that Sir Johnny started to come under strong pressure soon after they entered the straight and that Freds Benefit came up to him cruising. The effort of charging up the hill off the strong pace must have nearly burst him. Ruby Walsh on Freds Benefit had shrewdly waited for him and Arrive Sir Clive to tire. He let his mount cruise along to close the gap quickly and then coast up to the last alongside the hard ridden Sir Johnny (Arrive Sir Clive having sadly broken a hind leg). He then rode him out for a few strides as he touched down. Walsh quickly sensed Sir Johnny was no longer there as he started up the run in and looked over his shoulder to see his rival had fallen. Thereafter he stopped riding and allowed Freds Benefit to amble past the line 7.9 seconds ahead of his nearest pursuer.

I've little doubt that in a more conventionally run race and with company on the run in Freds Benefit would have roughly equaled the speed rating of 40 that I awarded him before. The interesting question now is how far he might stay.

With his half brother Sher Beau, there has always been a question over whether three miles is a bit too far. But Freds Benefit won here over a furlong longer than Sher Beau ever has, and did so off a very strong pace on heavy ground. So it has to get you thinking.

On balance, seeing how amazingly fast Freds Benefit can go over two miles, I'd be inclined to side against him right now as a novice if he tried three miles on a big galloping track. But next year around the tight turns of Kempton I'd be rather interested in his chances of staying the distance in the King George.

A point worth bearing in mind is that chasers as pacey as Freds Benefit tend to be best fresh. That is they're good for their first two runs of the season and then need a break of at least five weeks to run well again. This may well explain his one sub par run at Naas when he was brought back quickly following a fall two out on his previous start. The fact that Willie Mullins rested him before this win suggests he agrees with this idea.

In any event it's great to have such an exciting young horse as Freds Benefit around. Hopefully he'll be making the big Grade 1 chases a lot more interesting for many years to come.

Sir Johnny is a smart horse. But he had a hard race here and his record suggests strongly he's best fresh. He's won two of the four times he's come into a race off a break of six weeks or more and run huge races in his two defeats (I'm uncluding his point to point form here). However he's run three poor races out of three when he's been brought back sooner. So I have to say I think he blew his chances for the Sun Alliance Chase with this effort. If he were mine I'd be skipping Cheltenham and keeping him fresh for a crack at a decent prize at the Aintree or Punchestown Festivals. It looks likely he'd have earned a rating of around 37 or 38 from me in a normally run race here if he'd stood up, and that's enough to give him a shot in pretty much any big novice chase. Seeing that he showed so much stamina off a searching pace on heavy ground here I suspect he's going to prove best at three miles, the trip he won both his point to points over.

CLOPF SHOWS HIS INEXPERIENCE

CLOPF (37) demonstrated just why horses with as little chasing experience as him have such a poor record in the Arkle when falling at the last at Navan. He'd jumped pretty well for the most part, though he did still get a bit low at several jumps. But then approaching the last, just as he was beginning to go clear, his jockey gave him a crack of the whip on the backside and he reacted badly. He cocked his jaw, jinked to the left and put his head up. By the time his rider got him halfway organized they were right on top of the fence. Clopf got spooked, overjumped, landed too steeply and slithered to a slow motion fall on the other side.

I've awarded Clopf the speed rating he would have earned for winning this race by four or five lengths, which is what I think he would have done. But that's not a big enough number to make me think he's going to become only the second Arkle winner in the last 20 years that made its chasing debut after the turn of the year which hadn't previously won over fixed brush hurdles.

That said, Clopf is clearly a useful chasing prospect. He headed off the fast front runner Dark Artist to make the running here at a really good clip. With another run or two under his belt I think he'll be winning good races over fences.

The way that SCOTSIRISH (34) finished so strongly to take third suggests strongly that the jumping errors he made here and in other chases have been due to being stretched by the pace over inadequate distances. He's built and bred to get much longer and has already shown he gets at least 2m 6f. Despite his fine record over two miles I'd like to see him go back up to a longer trip next time.

PACE MAKES THE RACE FOR THE LISTENER

Pace is such a difficult thing to predict in a race that I've developed a maxim over the years; 'never bet on pace'. By that I mean you should never base a bet on the belief that a race is going to feature a slow or a fast pace in the early stages. In my experience there's just no way to predict that.

This makes the performance of a horse like THE LISTENER (40) fiendishly hard to forecast when he's running a longer trip. He can stay three miles but only when his rivals don't force him to go a strong pace.

Last year The Listener went just a bit too fast to get home in the Hennessy Gold Cup and was caught in the dying strides by Beef Or Salmon. This year his jockey Daryl Jacob looked determined not to repeat that situation as he sent his mount into the lead but never allowed him to blast along at the speed he's capable of. As a result The Listener reached the eighth fence (around halfway) 6.2 seconds later than he did in last year's Hennessy when you adjust for the difference in going. And he had enough zip left to turn the race into something of a sprint from the third last to halfway up the run in.

The Listener won this race nicely. But he's never earned anything better than a rating of 40 from me over three miles. His wins at the trip are dependent on a smart tactical ride from his jockey. Over two and a half miles he can be allowed to stride along and earned a rating of 43 from me over the trip when blitzing his rivals in the John Durkan Memorial. So it's abundantly clear that the choice between the Ryanair Chase and the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival is really no choice at all. His connections simply must steer him towards the shorter contest, and I'm sure they'll do so. If they're in any doubt all they need to is re-watch the videos of how badly The Listener tired when asked to go three miles plus at the last two Cheltenham Festivals.

I remain agnostic about whether the runner up TURKO (38) will stay three miles in a strongly run race. As I've mentioned before, like most horses that have had breathing problems he seems to be best when he's fresh and doesn't perform well on steeply undualting tracks because they put too much stress on his breathing. This being so I imagine he'll be skipping the Cheltenham Festival and being kept fresh for Aintree. I'd fancy his chances in the big two and a half mile chase at that meeting because he's earned a rating of 41 from me over the shorter trip, and that's enough to make him competitive with just about anything. Over three miles I think he's always going to be like The Listener - vulnerable when the gallop is strong.

As you might expect from a horse being aimed at the Grand National SNOWY MORNING (38) got caught a bit flat-footed when the sprint began three out. But he kept going strongly and only narrowly missed second. He is a great big horse. And this leads me to believe he's not happy being asked to jump fences on fast ground because he hits the ground too hard. This surely explains his two sub-par runs at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals last year.

Turning into the straight it looked like MISTER TOP NOTCH (38) was going to be a huge threat to The Listener. The eventual winner had got all of his other rivals on the stretch with the burst of acceleration he put in from the third last. But Mister Top Notch moved right up to his shoulder rounding the turn into the straight with his rider not doing anything at all.

The problem is Mister Top Notch is a big, tall proper three mile chasing type and he couldn't sustain the sprint as well as the first two. So he tired just a bit in the closing stages to finish a close fourth.

BEEF OR SALMON (35) never really got into the race. I suspect that nowadays he needs genuinely heavy ground to produce his best.

Over the last two years Beef Or Salmon has run five times on what my going allowances say was heavy ground. He won three of these five times. One of his losses was a second place finish in the Lexus to The Listener when that one was gifted a soft lead. The other was a good five lengths second in a two mile hurdle to Pedrobob who went on to win the County Hurdle a few runs later. In ten starts on soft or faster ground in the last two years Beef Or Salmon has failed to score. And the only two times he's run on what I rate good going in this period produced the two widest margin chase losses of his entire career.

If he can be found a race on heavy ground I'd be very interested in Beef Or Salmon's chances of scoring one more big win before he retires.

NICKNAME (32) pulled early as might be expected from a horse that's been running two miles. He didn't last home and obviously needs to go back to the shorter trip.

HEDGEHUNTER (31) didn't run badly at all. He stayed in touch all the way until The Listener started sprinting from three out. I can see him running another big race in the Grand National where stamina not acceleration will be the main requirement.

CORK ALL STAR SHOULD TURN THIS FORM AROUND AT CHELTENHAM

After watching the video of the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle a couple of times I have to say I'm surprised that the connections of the runner up CORK ALL STAR (37) didn't lodge an objection to the winner FORPADYDEPLASTERER (37). Cork All Star was challenging on the rail approaching the last when Forpadydeplaster hung left and squeezed him out, forcing his jockey to take up, switch around to the other side and lose momentum. Cork All Star got going again on the run in and was beginning to close the gap on Forpadydeplasterer close home.

You can debate whether Cork All Star would have won. But over the shorter trip and on faster ground at the Cheltenham Festival he will surely turn this form around in the Supreme Novices. The winner is a great big tall three mile chasing sort who surely appreciated the soft ground, strong pace and extended distance far more than Cork All Star.

Cork All Star has won both of his starts at Cheltenham so far, including the Festival Bumper. I think he still represents Ireland's best hope of winning the Supreme Novices.

I think the ground will be too fast for Forpadydeplasterer at Cheltenham. He's surely too big to win on anything except yielding or softer ground. But whatever happens to him there he remains a great chasing prospect for next season.

AMBOBO THE ONE TO BEAT IN THE JEWSON

AMBOBO (31) is a very professional little horse. He seems very happy to fight for position at a fence and has coped with a wide variety of courses, distances and surfaces. He also has the stamina to win a strongly run race and the pace to beat his rivals for finishing speed in a slow run contest. He demonstrated this latter ability in a good novices chase at Naas last week.

Held up in mid-field off a slow pace, Ambobo steadily moved up as the pace quickened from five out. He was challenging at the last and quickly used his speed to open up a narrow gap on the second MACS MANDALUS (31) which his rival never looked likely to close.

Ambobo has been jumping fixed brush hurdles since way back in 2004. So his profiency at jumping fences is no big surprise. It seems to me he's best at slightly less than three miles and that he needed his first run this season which came off a ten month break. Throw out that run and Ambonbo's jumps record at less than three miles shows seven wins from nine tries, with good second place finishes to high class rivals in his two losses.

Ambobo has already won one big race at Cheltenham. He now looks to have a favorite's chance of winning another in the form of the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Festival. If the early pace had been strong here I've little doubt he would have earned a rating of around 37 from me. And his past form shows that he can run a good deal faster than that. He's clearly good enough to win the Jewson and looks more likely than not to run up to his best in the race.

Macs Mandalus is a big, tall proper chasing sort who certainly wasn't stopping at the finish. In fact he was rallying and eroded Ambobo's advantage as they approached the line. He improved for the step up to two miles, three furlongs here and looks set to improve again over more ground. I see him winning something decent before the season is out. I suspect it will be a handicap chase as I think he'll be getting a mark under 130 and that would make handicaps a very attractive proposition.

COOLDINE A GREAT CHASING PROSPECT

COOLDINE (38) put up a smart staying performance to win a Listed novice hurdle at Clonmel. In the lead from the fourth, he kept up a relentless gallop and ended up grinding out a 28 length win.

Cooldine is a proper chasing sort who loves soft ground according to his trainer Willie Mullins. In fact, when you include his point to point form Cooldine has now won five of the six times he's run on ground softer than yielding. His sole loss came over an inadequate two miles on his hurdling debut.

If the ground is in his favour Cooldine is clearly going to be the one they all have to beat in the Grade 2 Michael Purcell Memorial at Thurles next month. Next season he's surely going to be one of the top three mile novice chasers and long term I reckon he could win something like the Irish Grand National.

J'Y VOLE IMPROVES

I thought J'Y VOLE (38) needed to be fresher than she was for the Grade 1 Dr J. P. Moriarty Novice Chase to score. But she proved me wrong by setting a searching pace and winning despite jumping out to the right at several fences and making one catastrophic blunder three out that should have finished here. She rallied tremendously well to catch BIG ZEB (36) on the run in after that one had looked home and hosed.

J'Y Vole actually improved here according to my speed ratings. And it's hard not to conclude that it was the extra furlong that brought this about. The way she was able to rally so strongly after setting such a strong pace and making that blunder suggest strongly that she'll have no problem whatsoever stepping up another three furlongs to three miles. After this I'm going to be wary of opposing J'Y Vole again. She's awfully good.

Big Zeb has now won, fallen or finished second to a very smart rival in each of his last seven races. He came with a very classy looking run to head the winner and my gut feel is that he can actually do a bit better. I have my eye on him to win something decent before the season is over.

AGUS A VIC A SMART HUNTER CHASER

AGUS A VIC (37) impressed me when just outrunning the smart veteran CLIMATE CONTROL (36) in a hot Hunters Chase at Leopardstown. In a prolonged duel from the second last the pair opened up a huge gap on the rest of the runners. It was the kind of performance only a really classy horse can put up.

I rather suspect that Agus A Vic is somewhat like Harchibald in that he needs to be delivered late. He's been headed close home in a couple of races. But for that he would have won his last seven starts in point to points and hunter chases. His trainer says he needs a bit of cut in the ground. If he got it he'd be an interesting candidate for the Cheltenham Foxhunters.

Climate Control ran a clunker when he ran in last year's Cheltenham Foxhunters. I suspect the track's steep undulations don't suit a horse with his dodgy forelegs (he's broken down twice). Elsewhere though he's still capable of winning pretty much any hunter chase.

FIVESTAR ALSTAR A USEFUL TWO MILER

FIVESTAR ALSTAR (36) won a very strongly run two mile handicap chase at Naas in good style. Held up some way off the searching early gallop he came through strongly to lead entering the straight and found more than he looked likely to when CLEW BAY CLOVE (35) challenged him strongly on the run in.

Fivestar Alstar has now won the last three times he's run two miles following a vaguely recent run but has run unplaced all seven times he's tried longer. Clearly he's a two mile specialist, and I got the feeling from watching him pull out extra at the finish that he's capable of running a bit faster than this. Off his relatively low mark he should be tough to beat over two miles in the near future.

TREMENDOUS STAYING PERFORMANCE BY CHELSEA HARBOUR

You won't see many better staying performances than that put up by CHELSEA HARBOUR (37) when he won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown. In a race run at a searching end to end gallop over three and a half miles on heavy ground Chelsea Harbour just kept on going and going like the Energizer Bunny. Never out of the first two, he steadily ground his rivals into submission. And the jumped the big fences well, though he did go to the left a few times.

Looking at his record it seems to me that Chelsea Harbour suffers from the lack of staying chases in Ireland. He's won both times he's run over fences on heavy ground at Naas, one of Ireland's stiffest tracks. And here he won the only time he's had the chance to go longer than three miles with cut in the ground.

Sectional times show just how strong a pace Chelsea Harbour went here and how good he is. I timed him over the last fifteen fences, which were the same fifteen fences jumped in the two and a half mile chase on the card. And he completed the distance just 0.8 of a second slower than the winner of the much shorter race. If the winners were the same class Chelsea Harbour should have come home about six seconds slower by my estimates.

It was hard not to think about Aintree after watching this performance. Maybe Chelsea Harbour won't act on the likely faster ground. Perhaps he lacks the experience for the Grand National. But one thing's for sure; he won't lack for stamina. I'm going to give him serious consideration when the time comes.

MISTER WATZISNAME NOT THAT GOOD

It is very hard to make accurate speed ratings for a meeting where it rains heavily and the ground gets steadily softer throughout the day. But however inventive I try to be there's just no way that I can award MISTER WATZISNAME (24) anything like a good speed rating for ploughing through bog-like conditions at Punchestown to win the Grade 2 Byrne Group plc Novice Hurdle last Sunday.

It looked like they were going a really slow pace all the way. And this is confirmed by the fact that they completed the last two miles of the preceding three mile hurdle 1.3 seconds faster than Mister Wotzisname ran the two miles in his race. They should have run about 8 seconds slower considering the distance in class and distance. That's just too much to be accounted for by a change in going from one race to the next.

Mister Watzisname made all the running, and I think this helped him markedly as he was able to set a crawl of a pace and quicken up from two to jump. It was tough for his rivals to gain ground on him in the conditions.

I have no real idea which horses benefited most from the going here and which ones just couldn't handle it. Though it did seem clear the smart SOPHOCLES (17) falls into the latter category. He was allowed to come home in his own time and is undoubtedly much better than he showed here. Basically though I think this is a race to ignore for form purposes.