MAC'S JOY FAILS TO RUN FAST YET AGAIN

If MAC'S JOY (5) proves fast enough to win the Champion Hurdle at Chetlenham I'll eat my computer. He won his second Grade 1 race in a row last Sunday in what my ratings suggest was a slow run race. But in a 17 race career he has yet to clock a pattern class time. In my experience genuinely top class horses always run a fast time eventually. Certainly Mac's Joy should have done so by now.

The way I see it, Mac's Joy is one of those horses that can produce a smart burst of acceleration to win a slow run race. That's not the way the Champion Hurdle is run, so I just can't have him.

According to my speed ratings, third placed HARDY EUSTACE (5) is the fastest hurdler we've seen since Istabraq. In a more strongly run race at Cheltenham, I give him every chance of winning a second Champion Hurdle.

ULAAN BAATAR (39) ran away with the Baileys Arkle Chase in seriously good time. He's unbeaten over fences and could be anything. He may need cut in the ground. He may prove better over longer. It's just too early to say and there's too little evidence to go on.

SCARTHY LAD (22) finished far behind Ulaan Baatar, but he's previously run a fiar bit quicker. My read of his form is that he's best when fresh. Like a lot of the top two mile chasers, he seems to run to what I call the rest pattern. Such horses are good for their first two runs off a lengthy break at the beginning of the season but then need a rest of at least five weeks between their completed starts in order to run well again. All of Scarthy Lad's wins fit this pattern, so I hope that he's now kept fresh for the Arkle at Cheltenham. If he is I'd prefer his chances to those of Ulaan Baatar.

RANSBORO (38) is another good novice chaser who win a Listed handicap on the same card. My gut feel is that he probably improved because it was the first time he'd run over fences in a small field. He's exhibited serious jumping problems in bigger fields and I have to doubt his ability to jump in a crowd until he's proven he can. Still, he's fast, and, if I'm right, he's going to be predictably inconsistent - winning in small fields and jumping badly in big ones. That spells betting value.

It could well be that runner-up JASMIN D'OUDAIRIES (37) is best in small fields too. He earned a pattern class speed rating from me in a small field a few runs back and repeated the feat here. This run and both his chasing wins to date have come in fields of ten or less, while he's lost all eleven times he's run in bigger fields.

NUMBERSIXVALVERDIE (37) ran fast enough to earn a write up from me a couple of runs back, and he repeated the feat to win the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park last week.

The ground was slower at Gowran Park than it's been at any meeting this season, and that's the way Numbersixvalverdie likes it according to his trainer Martin Brassil. Brassil said afterwards he'd be entering Numbersixvalverdie for the Irish Grand National. On the clock he's only Listed class, so he probably won't be quite good enough for that. However, it looks like a pretty weak year for staying novice chasers, so Numbersixvalverdie would surely have a serious chance if running in his other possible target race, the big novice handicap chase final at Navan on March 5th - assuming he gets his ground.

Short head loser KYMANDJEN (37) led everywhere but on the line. He's lightly-raced and improving. But what I find most interesting about him is that there is no obvious pattern to his form. He seems to run equally well under all conditions. Normally when a horse is running as fast as it can clear preferences for certain types of tracks, going and distances show up in its form. This hasn't happened with Kymandjen yet, so I suspect he will keep on improving and is a threat to finally win a big handicap chase after placing for the third time in one here.

I had though LINCAM (38) was a good thing on the clock to take the Thyestes Chase, but he just failed to miss the cut. A few days later he carried lots more than he would have in the Thyestes but ran faster than the winner by my estimates to run a good second in a Grade 2 novice chase at Naas. Hopefully this won't have ruined his handicap mark. If it hasn't then I can still see Lincam winning something big on the soft ground he favours. The Irish Grand National would be an obvious target.

POINT BARROW (39) beat Lincam home and is clearly a very decent horse. In fact only Cornish Rebel has earned a bigger rating from me among the longer distance novice chasers. He too needs soft ground according to his trainer Pat Hughes. So I'd bet that he'll get chopped for speed even at the four miles of the National Hunt Chase if it is run on fast ground as seems overwhelmingly likely. Thereafter though, like Lincam, Point Barrow looks to have a major chance of winning a big handicap chase on softer ground. He'd also have a great chance in any novice chase when there's cut in the ground.

It looks like I was wrong about CENTRAL HOUSE (40). I figured he was at his best in the first half of the season. But he went and ran another big time to take the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse. It could well be that he has simply improved for the application of blinkers, as his trainer has suggested. This being so, I'm not going to say he can't continue the rich vein of form he's struck, even if he's upped to a longer trip next time.

PAK JAK HAS SERIOUS CHANCE IN ARKLE

I thought the Arkle was as good as over when Kauto Star won in fast time a few weeks back. But first Scarthy Lad came along and ran just as fast, and now PAK JACK (40) has gone and earned a rating just one point shy of this pair.

Pak Jak is very lightly raced, so I'm wary of over-interpreting his form at this stage. It could be that it was the cut back to the minimum distance or the switch to fast ground that brought about the improvement. Or it might be that he simply needed his only previous run in Britain. All I can say for sure is that he's now shown he can jump big fences at speed on fast ground and record a very fast time over two miles. That's exactly what he needs to do to win the Arkle. For my money Pak Jack and Scarthy Lad represent serious ante-post value at huge odds for the big race.

I wouldn't put anyone off SUPREME DEVELOPER (39) for the Arkle either. He made a series of jumping errors late in the race yet still got to within a couple of lengths of Pak Jack. He may well need fast ground over fences. Certainly he seems best over the minimum distance. He'll be hard to beat wherever he goes, but if he were mine I'd be pointing him towards a big handicap rather than a novice event. His current handicap mark massively understates his ability if my speed ratings are anywhere close to being right.

I'd also recommend the handicap route for third-placed COLLIERS COURT (37). He'd won four in a row before this but seemed to show that he's not quite up to beating the very best novices here. However, in a class C or D handicap I wouldn't like to oppose him.

LIMERICK BOY (37) is yet another smart two mile novice chaser. He finally got his head in front over fences when winning in fast time at Leicester. He had a bit of trouble clambering over the open ditches, so I suspect he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to clear fences effectively. The going was good to firm here by my reckoning, not the good to soft, soft in places. In addition, the fences at Leicester are soft and there were only five runners. So I can see Limerick Boy disappointing next time if the ground is softer, the field much bigger or the fences stiffer. Medium term though it's going to be Spring in a couple of months and the ground will be turning in his favour. Therefore I'd be keeping an eye on Limerick Boy from now on. He could easily run below form soon when his jumping ability is tested but bounce back to form predictably at nice odds.

Runner-up DEMPSEY (36) ran his best ever race on the clock, going under by less than two lengths to his smart rival. He had won four of his last five completed starts before this run and still has potential for improvement seeing how he ran green in the closing stages.

LACDOUDAL (36) came from off a strong pace to win for the second time in a row over fences at Kempton. He's a useful horse, but my concern about him is his size. He's not that big and I strongly suspect this means he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to enable him to clear fences effectively. He's won both time he's raced on ground that was on the firm side of good according to the going allowances I make for my speed ratings. But he's made jumping errors and lost all three times he's run on even genuinely good or slower ground. Lacdoudal has yet to run in a big field over fences, but I'd be wary of siding with him, even on fast ground, in a field much bigger than the one he faced here (nine runners). Small horses tend to have trouble fighting for position at a fence. Having said all that, I have to add that there are plenty of chases with smallish fields and that the ground is normally fast in the Spring. This being so I'd bet on Lacdoudal quickly bouncing back to form if, as I suspect, he loses his next start or two on softer ground or in bigger fields.

BARON WINDRUSH IS A VERY SMART STAYING CHASER

BARON WINDRUSH (41) won the Totesport Classic Chase in exceptionally fast time. In fact he earned the joint biggest speed rating I've given a novice chaser all season.

The step up to 3m 5f clearly suited Baron Windrush. The soft ground almost certainly helped too. He has now won all four times that he's raced on yielding or softer ground at three miles or more.

I suspect that Baron Windrush will get outpaced over a shorter trip on likely faster ground if he goes for his likely targets at Cheltenham and Aintree. But back over a marathon trip I would rate him the one they all have to beat in the Scottish National. The big Ayr race often falls to a novice, and I can't remember one as fast as Baron Windrush ever running in it.

Runner-up D'ARGENT (40) lost his unbeaten record at Warwick but pulled a long way clear of the rest to chase Baron Windrush home. My read of his form is that he isn't simply a Warwick specialist and will reproduce his form on similar tracks. The two key features of Warwick are that it is 1m 6f around and very wide. The other tracks which are as big and as wide (as judged by official safety limits) are Aintree's National course, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Newbury and Newcastle. D'Argent has only gone over jumps at two of these tracks and won both times. In fact, if Baron Windrush hadn't run here he would now be unbeaten in six runs over jumps on big, wide tracks.

On smaller or narrower courses, D'Argent has yet to win in ten tries. So I suspect he will run below form if he tackles the Midlands Grnad National at Aintree. Back on a more suitable course though, he will surely take a big handicap in one of his next few starts.

DOUBLE HONOUR (36) did well to finish third in first time blinkers (which normally cause a horse to run to below form according to a survey I once carried out. Prior to this run he had raced on officially soft ground or at three and a quarter miles plus eight times and won on six occasions. The two losses were when he ran a good second to the brilliant Rhinestone Cowboy over hurdles and when he didn't quite seem to cope with the huge fences on Aintree's National course but kept staying on to take fourth in the Becher Chase. Now that he's used to blinkers I suspect he'll improve on this run and rate him a good bet to win a staying chase or one of soft ground soon.

L'AMI (37) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given to a novice chaser over three miles this term when scoring by nine lengths at Warwick.

last March L'Ami ran as fast as most of the top novice chasers ever go when chasing home the useful Samson in a valuable Listed chase at Auteuil. I think it's clear why he is being run in Britain this term: The dam's side of his pedigree is unusually stout for a French-bred jumper, and it appears that, like his brother Kelami (who ran fourth in the big staying chase on the same card), he appreciates the longer distances that are available in Britain.

Prior to his last start L'Ami only just missed out winning three in a row over 2m 5f or more. His sole loss came when a close second to the smart Dukeen (who was winning for the fourth time in a row) in another valuable Listed chase at Auteuil where he pulled eight lengths clear of the rest of the field.

I'm a bit doubtful that L'Ami will prove good enough to win the Sun Alliance Chase or that he'll win decent races when he takes on non-novice company. Right now, it seems to me, he's exploiting his greater experience of chasing (he's run 15 times over fences) to beat the novices he's been facing. Still, there are plenty more opportunities for him to continuing doing that this term, so I'd say he hasn't stopped winning yet.

You don't often see anything resembling a good time run in a bumper race. So OSCAR PARK (32) is probably worth bearing in mind. He took a Listed national hunt flat race at Warwick in a race where he and the runner-up pulled well clear of the field. Oscar Park is unbeaten in two starts to date and now goes for the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. Whether he'll be able to handle the likely faster ground there I don't know. All I can say at this point is that he's unbeaten and promising.

On the All Weather COLD TURKEY (38) ran back to his best to take a fast run and very competitive handicap at Lingfield. The key to him seems to be that he needs plenty of cover and must hit the front as late as possible. This can only be guaranteed in really big fields. In fact, in fields of 14 or more on the AW, or on downhill tracks which he seems equally effective on, Cold Turkey would have won seven times out of seven but for one photo finish loss. In smaller fields he's now lost eight in a row. His trainer is convinced that he stays two miles and only lost at the trip last time because he hit the front too soon (there were only nine runners). Cold Turkey is due to step up to two miles again next time. If he encounters a big enough field I'd be wary of opposing him. He's run Group class times on many occasions, including here, when he's faced sufficient rivals to provide the cover he needs.

BLAZE OF COLOUR (37) ran a Listed class time for the second occasion to chase Cold Turkey home. Her only wins so far have been on the AW and at Brighton, one of three UK tracks that seem to suit AW runners (Epsom and Yarmouth being the other two). It may be that she is best on the sand or those courses. Or it could be she simply needs a firm surface. Either way my ratings indicate she's capable of taking a Listed race this year. She's certainly going to be hard to beat on the AW next time.

Quiet Times (39) ran his fastest ever race to beat the smart Moayed narrowly at Lingfield. But I'll be opposing him if he's brought out again soon. I reckon his trainer, Kevin Ryan, is probably right when he says Quiet Times has run best when fresh. The horse managed to win when not rested here, but he ran so fast I'm convinced he'll do nothing but regress unless he's now given a break.

Runner-up MOAYED (38) doesn't ever seem to need a break. He ran yet another huge speed rating despite having his fifth race in five weeks and tenth in three months.

It's been quite some time since we saw a horse run so many good races in a short period on the AW. I'm beginning to suspect that the reason Moayed has been able to achieve the feat is that he has not yet run as fast as he is able to. He's already run Group 3 times by my estimates on several occasions, so he could be very good indeed, and I'd bet on him showing it if he's stepped back up to the longer trips which he seems better suited to.

CHATEAU NICOL (37) ran a pattern class while losing for the third time in a row. In a normal winter he'd probably be unbeaten on the AW and will surely pick up another race soon.

HOWLE HILL (37) won a strongly run handicap over ten furlongs on the Polytrack, proving that he's as good as ever back on the flat. He'll be kept to the AW till the faster ground he needs over hurdles arrives in the Spring. This raises the interesting possibility that he could end up running in the Winter Derby over the same course and distance that he won over here. I wouldn't want to say he couldn't win that race at this stage. He's one of those horses that needs to be held up till very late and normally wins very narrowly. This being the case, it could well be he can run a bit faster than he did here.

SCARTHY LAD & HOMER WELLS JOINT FASTEST NOVICE CHASER & HURDLER

I thought we wouldn't see a novice chaser run as fast as Kauto Star did at Newbury this season. But I was wrong. SCARTHY LAD (41) earned the same speed rating from me when dotting up in the Phil Sweeney Memorial at Thurles.

Scarthy Lad had some smart form over hurdles but my ratings say he's improved significantly for the switch to fences. He looks a good thing to extend his unbeaten run over the bigger jumps to three in the Bailey's Arkle at Leopardstown on January 23rd. The 20-1 still available about his chances for the Arkle at Cheltenham looks awfully generous.

Runner-up BONEYARROW (37) has been almost boringly consistent in chases short of three miles. This was the third time he's earned the same sort of rating from me. It indicates he's capable of winning something decent if only he can avoid the very best chasers.

HOMER WELLS (39) came with a terrific late run to win the Grade 2 Slaney Novice Hurdle at Naas. In doing so he equaled the best speed rating I've given a novice hurdler so far this season and beat the horse I gave that rating to.

Clearly Homer Wells appreciated the bottomless ground. He was desperately outpaced and stretched into jumping errors early. On normal ground I doubt that he'd be effective over two and a half miles, but that won't be a problem as he's set to step back up to three next time. Homer Wells has now won all four times he's run on heavy ground or over two and a half miles plus on at least soft. I'd doubt that he'd be suited by faster ground. However he looks a high class horse given his ground and distance.

SWEET KILN (39) equalled the rating I'd given her a couple of runs back to finish second by a head. She still stands as the benchmark for all other novice hurdlers. I doubt that she'll come up against many horses as smart as Homer Wells in future, so I'd say she's still worth following. I can't really say the same for Petertheknot (37) who ran third. He'd managed to just get the better of Sweet Kiln in a very slow run race last time. But here he showed, as he ahd a couple of runs back, that in a true run race he's no match for James Bowes' smart mare. He's likely to be highly tried in future and is not quite up to ebating the best novices according to my ratings.

LINCAM IS INCREDIBLY WELL HANDICAPPED

The most interesting fast time of the week came when LINCAM (40) ran away with a decent novice chase at Punchestown.

Lincam has only twice encountered soft or heavy ground at three miles over fences. He'd lost by a short head to the smart Prince Of Tara in one of these races on his chasing debut and been un unlucky second when blundering badly at the last to the useful Calladine last time out.

I don't know what the handicapper is going to do in response to Lincam's big win. But on my ratings his old mark of 107 understates his ability by about three stone. So if he can get into the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park he'd look a very good proposition on soft or heavy ground.

I've mentioned before that I believe BEEF OR SALMON (41) is best in small fields. He certainly seemed to validate this view when beating Best Mate in the six runner Lexus Chase. Toss out his last run where he was clearly unfit following setbacks and that one run last year where he was coughing and Best Mate's record in chases with eight runners or less shows nine wins in nine tries. He's lost all four times he's run in bigger fields over fences. No doubt he can win the Hennessy if the field is small. But I still doubt his ability to jump well when being crowded at a fence, so I don't think he's a great bet for the Gold Cup where a big field looks likely.

BEST MATE (39) was coughing a couple of days after the race, so I think we have to allow him this one slightly sub-par run. He's clearly being brought along specially for a Fourth Gold Cup, and I wouldn't want to say he can't do it at this stage.

RULE SUPREME (39) was in the process of running a big race when tipping up at the last. He was attempting to become the first horse by Supreme Leader to take a Grade 1 non-novice chase. He seems to suffer from the same problem that so many of his sire's offspring share. They're capable of winning smart chases against novices, but when they're asked to jump fences at the slightly faster speed experienced horses go they flounder at the top level. For this reason I still favour a return to hurdles for Rule Supreme and see him as a very interesting candidate for the Stayers' Hurdle. Over fences I'd only want to bet him in very small fields or over the easier fences to be found in Britain.

Central House (41) earned his biggest ever speed figure when taking the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown. But I'm rather doubtful about him continuing the good form. His trainer, Dessie Hughes, noted last year that he was in good form before Cheltenham but then ran flat in his final start. This seems to be a recurring pattern. Central House has now won six times out of eight in two mile NH races at Christmast time or earlier but lost all of his eleven later starts.

Runner-up NATIVE SCOUT (40) looks a somewhat more likely winner in the immediate future. He needs soft ground and there's plenty of that around right now. Given his ground he is a tough horse to beat and might well have won here had he not run around after the last.

There are some indications in Native Scout's form that he is best over jumps in smaller fields such as he met here. So I'd prefer it if he could be found another conditions race next time with a small field. It would also be nice if Moscow Flyer were absent as he was here, but I guess that may be too much to hope for.

NAITVE UPMANSHIP (39) ran a tad quicker than on his seasonal debut and looks a very interesting proposition the next time he returns to his specialist trip of two and a half miles.

Rathgar Beau (39) equalled his best ever speed rating even though he finished last of the four runners. He's been a bit lucky to have hit on a couple of soft Grade 2 races this season. But this run showed that he really hasn't improved as so many seem to assume.

KEEPATEM (37) duly won the Paddy Power Chase, having looked a handicap good thing to so many. This was the fourth time in a row that he's won when he's raced over 2m 6f plus with cut in the ground off a recent race. He's still ludicrously well handicapped, so I can see him winning something else decent this season. He's run a point quicker on my ratings than this and looks capable of winning in pattern company.