IRISH THREE MILE CHASERS ARE UNDER-RATED

It's hard to tell just how fast a horse really is when it just keeps on winning and only ever seems to do just enough to score. This is the case with DUN DOIRE (38) who won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in good time. It was his fifth win in a row.

The official going of good to yielding was highly misleading. race times indicate it was genuinely soft. So we don't yet know whether Dun Doire will be able to reproduce this sort of form on the much firmer ground he's likely to find at the Cheltenham Festival. Personally I'm inclined to believe that if he could act on fast ground Dun Doire would have shown it by now and wouldn't have seemingly been steered towards softer going for all 17 of his starts. Nonetheless he remains interesting, especially for a big British handicap chase, as I'm convinced the official ratings for the better three mile Irish handicap chasers and their British counterparts are currently totally out of whack.

Right now Ireland has a freakishly strong population of three mile handicap chasers according to my speed ratings. And this won't show up while they continue to race against and beat each other. It's only when they travel across the Irish Sea that their superior ability will reveal itself.

Runner-up COLJON (38) is still only a novice but has plenty of chasing experience, having had twelve runs over fences when you include his point to point starts. He keeps on running faster with every start and is surely going to win something decent. I he were mine I'd be looking at some decent British handicap chases with him.

Third-placed A NEW STORY (37) is probably the big long term name to come out of the race. He's twice run faster than the winner according to my speed ratings.

A New Story's biggest asset seems to be his stamina. He's already won over three and a half miles and was running on strongly at the end of the half mile shorter trip here. His biggest speed rating to date was earned at the ultra-stiff Navan on soft ground when a close second in a red hot renewal of the Troytown Chase.

Looking at his overall profile it's easy to imagine that A New Story will develop into a Grand National candidate. But he's got the dreaded Northern Dancer blood on his sire's side and only one of the hundreds of National runners with that (Monty's Pass) in their pedigree has managed to stay well enough to score at Aintree. So I'd bet on him shining over slightly shorter than the four and a half miles of that race. Like the first two, he looks a great candidate for a big British chase where he'll be able to avoid the swarms of well handicapped three mile chasers he must face locally.

MISSED THAT DOES IT AGAIN

I'd rated MISSED THAT (41) as the fastest Irish novice chaser after his big Grade 1 win at Leopardstown over Christmas. And he confirmed that impression by taking the Grade 1 Baileys Arkle over the same course and distance. Again his time was about as fast as a novice chaser can run.

An interesting aspect of Missed that's win is that it took place on what race times indicate was genuinely good ground. He won the Festival Bumper on even faster ground at Cheltenham. So he looks the one they'll all have to beat on the likely firm surface in the Arkle in March.

ARTEEA (41) got to within three quarters of a length of Missed That. On his previous run he'd hammered Grade 1 winner Wild Passion six lengths at Naas. Clearly he's a good Arkle candidate in his own right.

HOW GOOD IS MR BABBAGE?

MR BABBAGE (38) won a three mile novice chase at Navan in a time that suggests he'd have given Southern Vic something to think about if he hadn't tipped up six out in that Grade 1 at Leopardstown on his previous outing.

Mr Babbage only lost in a photo to Kill Devil Hill on his chasing debut, and that one went on to score in Grade 1 company next time out. So there are plenty of indications that he's about as good as he needs to be to be competitive in almost any novice chase. But, to be honest, I have to say I don't understand the horse yet. I see no obvious pattern in his form to explain several inexplicably poor runs. No doubt all will become clear in time as Mr Babbage gains experience and shows us what sort of racing circumstances suit him best. In the meantime all we can say is that he looks a very interesting prospect and must have a shot in the Irish National which is apparently now his main target.

SNOW TERN IS A PLAYER AT CHELTENHAM

SNOW TERN (37) ran fast enough to merit serious consideration for the Brit Insurance Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham when winning at Navan. Clearly he stays well, and his pedigree suggests he may well act on the faster ground he's likely to encounter at the Festival. He's won the last three times he's run two and a half miles or more (if you include his point to point win) and looks a very nice chasing prospect for next season.

FOTA ISLAND KEEPS ON RUNNING BIG RACES

FOTA ISLAND (40) is supposed to be at his best in the Spring. But he ran another big race at the wrong time of year to win the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse. In doing so he earned yet another good speed rating from me - again suggesting he's within hailing distance of the best two mile chasers.

Fota Island bombed home in the Grand Annual at last year's Cheltenham Festival. I think it's dangerous to assume he's not fast enough to win the Champion Chase in what's beginning to look like a weak year.

OLD FLAME (38) keeps on running fast enough to earn write ups from me here, and did so for the third time in a row to chase Fota Island home. No doubt his handicap mark is now going to skyrocket. But he's still capable of taking a big race judged on the big speed ratings he's been earning from me.

SOUTHERN VIC STILL HARD TO RATE

It's hard to rate an unexposed horse that keeps on winning comfortably by wide margins. Could it run faster if pressed? Or did it's decent time result from being able to pace itself by not being challenged?

This is still the situation with SOUTHERN VIC (38) who scored another easy win in a Grade 2 at Naas last week. The only horse that might have challenged him on my ratings was Tigerlion and he tipped up when in with a chance six out.

Trainer Ted Walsh says that Southern Vic needs soft ground, so he almost certainly won't be going to Cheltenham. Hopefully the horse's next run in the Dr P J Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown will tell us more.

NEWMILL RUNS A DECENT TIME

NEWMILL (39) won the Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles in a time that was only a point slow for the class according to my ratings. I'm not sure that the cut back to two miles for the Champion Chase will suit him though. He was effective over the trip a few years ago but may well need a bit longer now. After all he's won four times out of six at two and a half miles but has taken only one of his last eight tries at shorter trips - and that was a moderate novice chase.

NICKNAME RUNS EVER FASTER

NICKNAME (40) earned a big speed rating from me on his first Irish start. And he bettered it when running away with the Grade 2 Paddy Pitzpatrick Memorial Novice Chase at Leopardstown.

I suspect Nickname improved here because the race was a couple of furlongs longer than he ran last time. This being so I'm not keen on the idea of seeing him cut back to two miles for the Baileys Arkle or the Arkle at Cheltenham Nickname ran a close fourth in the three and a quarter mile French Champion Hurdle as a juvenile. This surely indicates he should be stepping up to three miles rather than cutting back to two.

WHAT A NATIVE IS STILL WELL HANDICAPPED

WHAT A NATIVE (39) ran a decent time to take the Leopardstown Chase and is clearly much improved since being stepped up to longer distances. In fact, if he hadn't lost by a length the first time he ran three miles he'd now be unbeaten in five tries at that trip or longer.

Quite where What A Native goes from here I don't know. He's certainly still well handicapped though. So if he gets the cut in the ground he probably needs I'd be wary of opposing him in the near future.

Third placed A NEW STORY (38) has run a bit faster in the past according to my speed ratings and still has a very progressive look to his form. I suspect he'll win a big handicap chase sometime this season.

FIELD SIZE THE KEY TO RANSBORO

Trainer Charlie Swan told reporters last year that RANSBORO (37) has never been particularly good at jumping fences. And I strongly suspect that comment holds the key to the horse's form. I say this because my research shows that the bigger the field the bigger the percentage of fallers - due no doubt to the increased crowding on the take-off side of jumps.

It seems to me that Ransboro has trouble jumping fences in a crowd. So far he has run in thirteen chases with a dozen runners or more without winning. In fields of eleven or less though he's won two times out of three and finished a close second to the highly progressive Dun Doire in his only loss.

Ransboro seemed to show his preference for a small field when winning an eleven runner chase at Naas in fast time. The speed rating I awarded him for the win was Listed class, and of course he's previously won at that level at Leopardstown last January. He will apparently try and repeat his win in that race next time where I'd say his chances will be determined by the quantity rather than the quality of the opposition.

Ransboro's jockey says he thinks the horse will stay three miles, and my speed ratings say he is right. I had Ransboro running as fast as he did here when getting to within nine lengths of the winner in a very fast renewal of the Troytown Chase over three miles a few runs back.

If he were mine I'd be tempted to send Ransboro to Britain because the field sizes are smaller over there and the fences are softer. In Ireland he's always going to have the problem of big fields.

I confess I really don't know what to make of the runner-up ROG (37). He was an incredibly consistent point to pointer, winning three and running second in the other three of his last races between the flags. But he's only managed a single win in 20 runs under rules.

It could be that, like the winner, Rog prefers smaller fields. Evidence for this is the fact that he's failed to complete in six of his last thirteen chases - all in big fields, and actually ran out on once occasion. In point to points lots more horses tend to pull up early, leaving a smaller field to finish than would be the case under rules. In fact Rog never beat more than six other finishers in any of his three point to point wins.

On the other hand it could simply be that for whatever reason Rog is now showing improved form. He's certainly massively under-rated by his official handicap mark, so I'd keep an eye on him.

TOOFARBACK STILL HARD TO ASSESSS

TOOFARBACK (38) won the Grade 2 Slaney Novice Hurdle in the sort of time you'd expect for the class. Quite how good he is I can't say as he's won three of his four starts to date and had a good excuse for his sole loss at Galway ("He slipped into the first ... and gave himself a fright" according to his trainer).

Seeing that he had to be driven out to win, this may well be as fast as Toofarback can run - over hurdles at any rate. Like the second and third, VIC VENTURI (37) and MERDEKA (37), Toofarback is clearly a chaser in the making. He will probably improve over fences next term.

REINEDOFF IMPROVES

A study I once carried out showed that the big speed ratings I was most reluctant to award were the most significant. This is because when only the clock says a horse is fast and nothing else does you're in line to get serious betting value about the horse with the big number.

This being so I'd pay special attention to REINEDOFF (38) in his next few outings. I tried every way I could to find some way of interpreting the time he ran at Punchestown as being slow. But whether I projected his speed rating from the times of other races or simply from past ratings of the horses he beat in his own race I came up with the same big number. I can only conclude that Reinedoff has improved massively - presumably because this was the greatest test of stamina he's encountered so far. He'd run the two and a half miles before but this was the first time he'd done it in mud.

COGANS LAKE A SMART JUVENILE

COGANS LAKE (36) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've awarded a juvenile hurdler so far this season when taking the W.T. O'Grady Memorial hurdle at Thurles by five lengths. His win franked the form of Dreux who'd hammered him by 20 lengths into second three runs back. I rated Dreux a seriously fast horse off that race and was surprised to see him get beat into third in a Grade 2 next time. Now I'm thinking there must have been some excuse for Dreux that day and will be very interested in his chances next time. Cogans lake himself looks very interesting as he's won both his starts since Dreux defeated him.

MARHABA MILLION (36) was apparently going just as well as Cogans Lake when he tipped up and will surely take a lot of beating next time.

HAS BEEF OR SALMON DETERIORATED?

BEEF OR SALMON (41) duly won his third Lexus Chase. And the time he ran was certainly pretty quick. But it was just shy of Grade 1 class and about ten lengths slower than his best over the three miles.

Beef Or Salmon has been losing races he should have won recently. On his next to last start for example he lost in a small field over fences when second to Kingscliff. In the past he's proven almost unbeatable in small fields and whenever he's been beaten there's always been an excuse till that loss at Haydock. My inclination is to oppose him when he takes on proper Gold Cup class rivals in future, even in the small fields he excels in. The idea of making him favourite for the Gold Cup is preposterous in my opinion.

Runner-up WAR OF ATTRITION (40) ran a decent time but ran significantly slower than his best. His run added weight to the theory I put forward here recently that he's best when fresh. His connections seem to share my theory as they now aim to keep him fresh for Cheltenham by resting him. I say that's a smart idea and that War Of Attrition offers real value for the Gold Cup at odds as high as 12-1.

SOUTHERN VIC IS STILL HARD TO ASSESS

SOUTHERN VIC (38) earned one of the biggest ratings I've given a novice chaser this season when taking the Grade 1 Ascon/Rohcon Novice Chase at Leopardstown by a wide margin. His run was still a bit shy of Grade 1 class though and it's hard to know at this stage whether he's capable of more. He's won all three times he's completed the course over fences beyond two and a half miles (when you include his point to point runs) and could be anything. All we can say right now is that he stays well, likes soft ground and is at least Grade 3 class.

CENTRAL HOUSE REALLY HAS IMPROVED

In February trainer Dessie Hughes told reporters that Central House "is a stronger horse this season." Subsequent events appear to suggest that the physical improvement has been accompanied by better form, especially this season. CENTRAL HOUSE (42) has run faster in his last two starts than in any of his previous outings. And he would have been winning for the third time in a row if his rider hadn't made that embarrassing error and eased him prematurely in last week's Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase.

I don't know whether Central House is now strong enough to hold his form after February. So far he's lost all ten times he's run in March or later. But between then and now there's undoubtedly a race or two to be won with him, seeing that old champion Moscow Flyer (39) seemed to prove pretty conclusively here that he really isn't the force he once was.

I've rated Central House on the assumption he'd have won by a couple of lengths but for being eased which seems fair. The actual winner HI CLOY (41) is nonetheless worth some consideration.

Hi Cloy is almost boringly consistent. He's reached the first three in all but one of his 18 chases (including points) and has only once made a slight jumping error. I'd like to see some more evidence that he can handle anything like as big a field as he'll meet in the Grand National. But I'm not going to knock him on the grounds of stamina. He's won twice at three miles if you include his point to point success. And his pedigree seems to suggest he's got a pretty good chance of lasting the National trip. He has none of the dreaded Northern Dancer blood which only one National winner in history has had so far. His sire has had plenty of marathon winners. While his dam has produced another three mile winner as well.

FOTA ISLAND (41) ran a big race at the wrong time of year for him. Trainer Mouse Morris says he's best in the Spring, and this is certainly borne out by his form which shows six wins out of six below Grade 1 class in March and April. Seven losses at the top level suggest that Fota Island is not quite good enough to take a normal Grade 1. But he's not that far off the very best according to my ratings, and some Grade 1's do come up soft, so he could win one next Spring.

CLIMATE CONTROL HAS A BIG CHANCE IN THE FOXHUNTERS

On average hunter chases are run about three seconds a mile slower than handicap chases of equivalent class. So it's very rare to find one run fast enough to earn a decent speed rating. In fact only about once a year does a hunter chase earn a pattern class speed rating from me. This being so I am very interested in CLIMATE CONTROL (39) who earned the biggest speed rating I've given a hunter chaser in years when scoring at Down Royal over Christmas.

Climate Control buried the useful Well Tutored by fourteen lengths and looks a very smart performer. In fact, he would have won all six of his completed starts (including points) following a losing debut but for a neck defeat by Grade 2 winner Arctic Copper in October. That loss followed a two year break so surely he needed the run.

Climate Control looks to have a big chance in the Cheltenham Foxhunters. And oddly enough, one thing that makes me very interested in Climate Control's prospects for that race is the fact he jumped badly before having to be pulled up at Limerick on his penultimate start. Limerick's fences claim a significantly higher percentage of fallers than Down Royal's (10.5% compared with 8.8%). Down Royal's fences are more like British fences which now claim a much lower percentage of fallers than they used to. It's also interesting to note that Climate Control won a point to point at Wexford which has the lowest percentage of fallers of any Irish track. What I'm saying is that Climate Control seems tailor-made for the softer British jumps he'll encounter at Cheltenham (where only 7% of chase runners have fallen over the last decade). I'd bet against him at Punchestown because the fences are so stiff (10.4% fallers) but my ratings say he's the one to beat at Cheltenham.

NICKNAME IS VERY SMART

Ok, your starter for ten: Name the horse that was officially the highest rated juvenile hurdler in the last decade.

Give up? Well the answer is NICKNAME (39). This amazing young horse earned an official French handicap rating that translates to a mark of no less than 165. That's well over 20 pounds bigger than anything that faced him when he own on his chasing debut at Leopardstown. This is hardly surprising when you look at Nickname's record. He won six Graded races in France, including a Grade 1.

In total Nickname won nine of his sixteen French starts and earned the joint biggest speed rating I have awarded a juvenile hurdler in recent years. Now, following a lengthy absence, he has gone and run even faster over fences.

Nickname's improvement was predictable. He is bred to improve over fences. You can't really tell this from his sire, Lost World, though his record is beginning to look very interesting (he's now had two very smart runners from the three that have gone over fences so far). It's Nickname's dam that tells the real story. She was a chaser and won her first three starts over fences. All the other four foals she produced before Nickname went chasing and all did well very early on. Two of them won on their chase debuts, another ran second first time out over the bigger jumps and the other won second time out over fences. Nickname was therefore keeping up a great family tradition by going in at the first time of asking over the bigger jumps.

The plan now apparently is to cut Nickname back to two miles for the Baileys Arkle. If he can cope with the slightly shorter distance he'll have a great shot of winning because he'll be one of the fastest runners in the race judged by my speed ratings. However I have a little dictum that I follow in such circumstances: 'a horse is at its best at the outermost limits of its stamina'. At trips short of its optimum a horse can get outpaced at a vital stage. At trips beyond its best it can tire badly if the pace is strong. This being so I suspect Nickname may find horses like Missed That a bit quick for him in the Baileys Arkle but will improve back to this level when returning to two and a half miles.

MISSED THAT HAS MAJOR SHOT IN ARKLE

Novice chasers invariably run about three lengths per mile slower than their experienced counterparts (I think this is because they jump a bit slower). So a speed rating of about 42 is normally the best they'll get from me. MISSED THAT (41) ran only a point off that when taking the Grade 1 Durkan new Homes Novice Chase at Leopardstown, beating a seriously strong field.

Missed That won at the Cheltenham Festival last seaon and looks to have a great chance of following up in the Arkle this term judged on this run. Right now there he just hasn't raced enough to be sure of his preferences. Nonetheless I find it interesting to note that he's won all four times he's gone left-handed but only won a minor race from four tries on right-handed tracks. So if he does end up winning the Baileys Arkle back on this course and the big race at Cheltenham I wouldn't assume he's a slam dunk for Punchestown which of course is right-handed.

Runner-up WILD PASSION (40) had gurgled when running well below form last time but bounced back to his best following a five week break here. In my experience most horses that develop breathing problems are best when fresh and I would bet on Wild Passion needing to be from now on. Certainly if he's brought out within a month of this run I'd oppose him with some confidence. If he's rested for five weeks plus though I'd be wary of opposing him - except on an undulating track, as horses with breathing problems tend to dislike those too.

ZUM ZEE IS WORTH FOLLOWING

I thought OLD FLAME (38) was a good thing to take the two mile handicap chase at Leopardstown's big meeting. But even though he ran just as fast as he had when bolting up on his previous run he got beat by ZUM ZEE (39).

Zum Zee has obviously improved and his trainer attributes this to working him harder at home. It may also be that he ran so big here because it was faster ground than when he finished second to Old Flame last time out. Only time will tell. In any event my ratings suggest that Zum Zee is well worth following, as is Old Flame.