HARDY EUSTACE LIVES UP TO HIS NAME

HARDY EUSTACE (42) ran as fast as he ever has to take the Ascot Hurdle in November. And he ran almost as quick to take the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last week.

After Ascot I wondered whether Hardy Eustace might now need two and a half miles to run to his best. But this run proved that the old boy hasn’t lost any of his speed.

Hardy Eustace won the Sun Alliance Hurdle in 2003, the Champion Hurdle in 2004 and 2005 and finished third in the same race last season when he clearly wasn’t at his best. Now he must have real prospects of joining the elite ranks of horses that have won four times at the Cheltenham Festival. To achieve that he is going to have to get by Detroit City who beat him into second place on his previous run. But now that’s beginning to look a good deal more likely as Hardy Eustace has now run three big races out of three this jumps season. I’m a fervent fan of Detroit City but this run by the old Champ has me worried.

Runner-up BRAVE INCA (41) has always had problems maintaining interest in very small fields. But he had won nine of the ten previous times he’d run in fields of seven or more prior to this run. His only recent defeat in a big field came when losing the 2005 Champion Hurdle by half a length to Hardy Eustace. So the evidence seems to be saying that smart as he is, Hardy Eustace is just a bit better.

LOUNAOS (38) ran a bit faster than the average Triumph Hurdle winner to finish a very respectable fourth. She deserves to be favourite for the big race on this run.

SCOTSIRISH WORTH A SHOT AT BALLYMORE PROPERTIES

SCOTSIRISH (37) won a rather warm looking novice hurdle at Leopardstown in a time I rated only a couple of ticks per mile slower than the best in his division. I suspect trainer Willie Mullins is right to say that he’ll do even better over a longer trip on faster ground. After all he won his only point to point start impressively and the fastest time that day was only six seconds off the quickest run on the course in the last three years - suggesting the going was a good deal faster than the official estimate of soft.

HOMER WELLS LOOKS INTERESTING FOR IRISH NATIONAL

Few horses stay as well as HOMER WELLS (37). So it’s not that surprising he was able to win the Thyestes Chase off a searching gallop on heavy ground. The problem he faces is that there are only three or four chases run in Ireland beyond three miles each year (barring a couple of events on the Bank course at Punchestown). And he can’t be guaranteed to get the heavy ground he needs in any of them. It’s therefore likely that his success will continue to depend on finding the occasional really strong run big three mile handicap like this one. However, if it did come up really soft for the Irish National Homer Wells would be a very interesting candidate. 3m 5f on heavy ground in a race invariably run at a strong pace would suit him down to the ground.

JUSTIFIED CAN TURN THIS FORM AROUND

NICKNAME (39) duly won the Normans Grove Chase just like he was supposed to. But everyone knows he needs mud and is unlikely to get it at Cheltenham. For me the horse to take out of the race just has to be the runner-up JUSTIFIED (32) who is almost certainly capable of running right up to his best on much faster ground.

I think the key to Justified's form is that most of the top two and two and a half mile chasers run to what I call 'the rest pattern'. That is they are good for their first two completed starts of the year but then need a break of five or six weeks to run well again. The period varies slightly from horse to horse. It's normally six weeks as it seems to be in the case of Justified.

The reason the top two and two and a half mile chasers are best fresh is I believe due to the fact that they need their 'fast twitch' or type IIB muscle fibres to really ping the fences at the fast pace the best short chases are run at.

Fast twitch muscles are those employed by sprinters and body builders. They produce the instant explosive force that's required to jerk 300 pounds over your head, blast off the blocks in a sprint or ping a big steeplechase fence. Fast twitch muscles use glycogen as fuel. This is rapidly burnt up in the course of a race and takes a while to build up again.

Prior to this race, Justified had run five times to the rest pattern over fences at less than three miles and had won all five times.

In his most recent win Justified beat the smart Tumbling Dice seven lengths into second. In his second most recent win he beat In Compliance three lengths into second and that one is the joint fastest chaser in training on my speed ratings.

As I see it, Justified is a truly brilliant horse when he's fresh. I suspect that he is in fact the best two mile chaser in training. I'm not at all concerned that he finished distressed last time out as that was his third run in nine weeks and he had a back problem. I'm not too concerned that he got beat here either as he again jumped out to his left, suggesting that his back was still troubling him. If he's rested till the Spring as he has been in every previous season he's raced I reckon he'll be the one to beat in the Champion Chase.

The current betting for the Champion Chase looks plain silly the me. Five of the first six home in the event last year were Irish horses yet all the shortest priced candidates at present barring Newmill are trained elsewhere. I think the race will once more go to Ireland, just like the vast majority of the most valuable UK national hunt races have over the last couple of years. And the Irish horse I see as the most likely winner is Justified. The 25-1 now being offered by most bookies is way too big.

ARANLEIGH AND MAD FISH ARE SERIOUSLY FAST BUMPER HORSES

I reckoned that MAD FISH (37) was way too short a price for the bumper at Fairyhouse last Sunday. I knew he'd won his sole point to point impressively but my research showed that his trainer Willie Mullins had scored with just three of the eighteen former pointers that he'd run under NH rules for the first time in a bumper over the previous seven years.

Sure enough Mad Fish got beat. But I couldn't have been more wrong about him He ran a freakishly fast time for a bumper race. The only reason he didn't win was that he was up against ARANLEIGH (39) who earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a bumper winner in years. The pair pulled a distance clear of their rivals.

It seems to me that one of these two horses just has to win the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. We're almost certainly not going to see any contender for the race run anything like this fast before Cheltenham. If you held a gun to my head right now and forced me to choose between them I guess I'd pick Mad Fish because he looks the speedier of the pair and therefore more likely to handle the faster ground at Cheltenham. On the day though I think I'll be betting both of them.

BLACK HARRY COULD BE ANYTHING

BLACK HARRY (38) probably improved for the step up to three miles when winning a Fairyhouse novice hurdle by a distance. I confess I don't have a clue whether he'll be as effective on faster ground or at shorter distances. But he's clearly one of the better Cheltenham prospects we've seen to date, especially for the Brit Insurance novice hurdle over the same distance. And in the longer term he looks a great chasing prospect.

SWEET KILN JUST KEEPS ON IMPROVING

I noted recently that SWEET KILN (39) had run progressively faster in each of her six comeback runs since being laid off with split problems. She continued the improvement to run her fastest ever race when winning the Bank Of Ireland Hurdle at Naas.

Like basically every decent horse ever trained by James Bowe, Sweet Kiln is a front running staying hurdler that loves mud and stiff tracks. She's actually not that far off her illustrious former stablemate Solerina on this run and shapes up as a very interesting proposition for the Boyne Hurdle next time out.

TOBAR ISAUN CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

TOBAUR ISAUN (37) showed huge improvement on his second start for Paul Roche to run away with a handicap chase at Fairyhouse. I imagine part of the reason he improved was the step up to three miles. But, whatever the reason, the thing to bear in mind is that Tobaur Isaun won this race off an official mark of only 87. So even if the handicapper throws a huge penalty at him he'll still be under-rated by a couple of stone according to my speed ratings. That means he has a great chance of winning a whole string of races. In fact I reckon he can be placed to win a big handicap chase sometime in the next few months.

KNIGHT LEGEND HAS BIG CHANCE AT LEOPARDSTOWN

KNIGHT LEGEND (38) has steadily improved over fences and ran his fastest ever race to win a decent Punchestown novice chase by nineteen lengths. This run puts Knight Legend bang there with the very best first season chasers and makes him look the one they all have to beat in the Dr J. P. Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown next month.

ADAMANT APPROACH AS GOOD AS EVER

One of the few virtually unbreakable rules of horse racing is that when a horse starts a jump season as a twelve year old it will deteriorate. The few exceptions to the rule tend to be very lightly raced horses. For a horse to be running its lifetime best race at thirteen years of age on its fifty third start is pretty much impossible. Yet this is what ADAMANT APPROACH ( 37) did when winning the Pertemps Hurdle qualifier at Leopardstown last Sunday.

Actually I suspect that Adamant Approach may have deteriorated but his form has been revived by his connections finding the ideal type of race for him. It's just that this past year he's been running in long distance hurdles on soft ground for the first time. He has now won all four times he's gone two and a half miles or more on yielding or softer ground over timber. Who knows how good he may have been four or five years ago in such races. Right now all I can say is that despite his advancing years he'd be a major threat in the final if he got his ground.

CLOUDY BAYS AS GOOD AS EVER

CLOUDY BAYS (37) has always been a solid Listed class horse according to my speed ratings. And his form seems to back this up. He’s lost all ten times he’s run in Graded company but won the last four chases of Listed or lower class that he’s contested. His latest win at Tramore shows that he’s as good as ever. With cut in the ground I’d still regard him as a threat in any ungraded chase.

THE LISTENER DID NOT IMPROVE

I mentioned here before that I felt WAR OF ATTRITION (35) needed to be fresher than he would be in the Lexus Chase. I also had doubts about BEEF OR SALMON (36) on the same score, as he'd failed to win after his first four starts in each of the last two seasons. Therefore I would not take the form of THE LISTENER (39) literally. In winning the big chase he ran no faster than he had before, and that makes him a tad shy of Gold Cup class.

The Listener earned almost exactly the same speed rating from me when he got beat narrowly by the smart Star De Mohaison on his seasonal debut. So right now I'm inclined to think that he's not quite up to beating the very top horses when they're at their best. Then again you could argue that with better luck he would have won all twelve times he's run on yielding or softer ground since losing on his hurdling debut. I would add that he earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've ever given a chasing debutante when winning a year ago. So I have to concede he still does have the potential to improve.

As I've said, I've believed for a long time that War Of Attrition is best fresh which he wasn't here. My read of his form is that ignore his first two runs his form thereafter on his first two starts of the season or with a 40 day break after that shows nine wins from eleven runs. When he's not been freshened up in that way he's won just one time out of eight. Then again it could be his trainer Mouse Morris is right and War Of Attrition simply doesn't handle heavy ground. It's a somewhat academic point anyway as War Of Attrition will now be rested until Cheltenham where he will almost certainly get the faster ground he prefers.

I'm not quite sure what to make of Beef or Salmon's run. It might well be that he suffered from the same problem all hold up horses have when they're in a race against a smart front runner that's allowed a soft lead. The front runner is able to relax in the lead and is still full of running when the late runners try to close the gap. Still I'd now prefer to see Beef Or Salmon freshened up with a rest of at least five or six weeks.

NICKNAME IS SMART IN MUD

NICKNAME (42) won the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase in a time that would give him a shot against basically any chaser now racing over two miles.

Right now I'm not sure that I've really got a handle on Nickname. The simple explanation for his form is that he's a mudlark and best at two miles. He’s won six of the last eight times he’s run on what my going allowances indicate was genuinely heavy ground - and his two fastest runs have been at two miles. However he's run really fast at two and a half miles and ran a good fourth as a juvenile in the French Champion Hurdle on what I rated good ground at three and a quarter miles.

I find it interesting that despite two thirds of Ireland's tracks being right-handed Nickname has been kept to left handed tracks for all but one of his seven starts since shipping over from France. That one run on a right-handed track produced a sub-par performance from him. He never ran right handed in France either.

I'm not going to commit to a definite opinion on Nickname yet. All I can say is that he's a seriously fast horse.

HOW GOOD IS CELESTIAL WAVE?

Adrian Maguire was proved right by CELESTIAL WAVE (39) in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown. She did improve for the step up to three miles, just like he said she would. She apparently needed the run badly on her seasonal debut but has now won the other six times she’s raced on soft or heavy ground. Clearly she's tough to beat in mud but just how good she is remains difficult to say.

Runner-up SWEET KILN (36) is rather remarkable in that she's earned progressively bigger speed ratings from me in each of her six runs since having a year off with splint problems. She earned ratings as big as 38 (Grade 3 class) from me as a novice and it looks like she's working her way back to that level.

DOSCO DOES IT AGAIN

DOSCO (37) keeps on running fast times and did so again when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas. The handicapper will no doubt throw another huge penalty at him. But he's still eligible for races below his true class over both hurdles and fences. I reckon he's going to win something very decent this season when he gets the soft ground he needs.

ON THE NET JUST THE SORT FOR THE TOPHAM

ON THE NET (38) earned a Grade 3 class speed rating from me for the second time when winning the Tim Duggan Memorial Chase at Limerick. He's a very consistent horse at around two and a half miles over fences. And he looks just the sort for the Topham Chase which is his big target.

The stiffer fences in Ireland give Irish chasers an edge when it comes to Aintree these days. And On The Net's ultra-safe style of jumping make him look a particularly appealing prospect for the big Liverpool race. He's jumped slow on one occasion (something that a lot of Aintree winners do) but he's not made a single mistake in 22 starts over hurdles or fences and has now reached the first four nineteen times in a row. He'll almost certainly be my pick for the Topham on the day and I can't wait to see him try the race.

GRANGECLARE LARK TOUGH TO BEAT IN MARES RACES

Mares are usually about three lengths a mile slower than male horses. And due to their smaller size there are very few mares that do really well over jumps. So GRANGECLARE LARK (38) ran about as fast as you'll normally see a mare go in the Winter game when she won a Listed race by over five lengths at Leopardstown.

Seeing how fast she is it would be silly not to try and win valuable races against males with Grangeclare Lark. But the thing to bear in mind is that on this form, however she fares against colts and geldings she'll always be very tough to beat against her own sex. This being so it's a logical move by her connections to make her long term target the valuable mares only Grade 3 hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

VINTAGE TREASURE A SERIOUS ARKLE CANDIDATE

VINTAGE TREASURE (39) ran a remarkably fast time to blast home at Limerick by ten lengths from the useful MISTER TOP NOTCH (34). He’s a lightly raced, very progressive sort that I now rate the fastest novice chaser in Ireland. I’m amazed that he’s not even quoted for the Arkle as he looks a serious candidate for that race. I’d bet on him proving it by winning again next time out.

MANSONY VERY SMART IN MUD

MANSONY (38) showed once again that he is a brilliant two mile mudlark when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has now won all four times he's run on soft or heavy ground at the minimum distance over fences. He’s run a bit faster than this too. So if he got his ground in the Victor Chandler Chase next time he’d be a serious threat.

DOSCO JUST AS FAST OVER HURDLES

DOSCO (37) earned a pattern class speed rating from me when chasing home Cavallo Classico over fences. And he ran just as fast when switched back to hurdles at Navan prior to winning again over timber a few days later. Clearly he's a smart performer over both types of obstacles.

Dosco seems best on soft ground and at trips of two and a half miles or more. He's capable of winning much better races than those he's still eligible for, so I suspect his winning run hasn't ended yet.