MUIRHEAD CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING FOR CHAMPION HURDLE

Colm Murphy took a page out of Aidan O'Brien's playbook when fielding two pacemakers for BRAVE INCA (42) in the Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. And they imitated the tactics O'Brien's pacemakers normally adopt too, with the weaker of the pair striding on ahead and the stronger one taking it up when she tired.

In the past Brave Inca has been caught flat footed when the pace has quickened in more tactically run races. There was no danger of that here as old HARDY EUSTACE (31) and Brave Inca himself kept tabs on the second of the pacemakers to ensure a scorching pace.

The searching end to end gallop on heavy ground brought out the best in Brave Inca. He looked sure to be passed as MUIRHEAD (42) cruised up into second place behind him in the straight. But the pace and the ground had turned the race into a real slog and there's never been a gamer horse in a tough finish than Brave Inca, so he was able to grind out yet another Grade 1 win while his younger rival could only close slowly on the run in to lose by three parts of a length.

The race could not have been set up better for Brave Inca. So I'm inclined to be sceptical about his chances of repeating that 2006 win in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. He looks to have a lost a bit of speed since then. Indeed his three subsequent successes have been on heavy ground, and this race rode more like a two and a half mile event thanks to the testing ground and searching early pace. On the faster ground that invariably prevails at Cheltenham I have a hard time seeing him confirm this for with Muirhead.

Muirhead is a much more pacey sort than the winner, and an out and out two miler. So I'd be rather confident that he'd have won well if the going hadn't been so dreadfully testing.

I felt before the race that the likely early pace would suit Muirhead every bit as much as the winner because he has a history of pulling hard when he can't find enough cover in slow run races. In fact, he did that here for about half a furlong after jumping the second despite the strong pace as he found himself racing with clear daylight in front of him. Anchored in behind runners thereafter, Muirhead cruised along and looked set to score comfortably as he smoothly moved up rounding the home turn and moved into second place. You can argue that jockey Barry Geraghty should have kicked past Brave Inca. But it looks like Muirhead is one of those horses that idles when he hits the front, so Geraghty was surely right to hold on to him. Unfortunately by the time he could urge him on the race had become a real stamina test and Muirhead couldn't quite get to the ultra game winner.

In a bigger field on faster ground at Cheltenham I've little doubt that Muirhead will turn this form around with Brave Inca. As I see it he's one of the big players for the Champion Hurdle and looks incredible value at ante-post prices as high as 40-1.

RIVER LIANE (37) was also moving really well entering the homestraight but didn't quite get home on the ground and faded up the run in while still holding on to third. He is a pacey horse with a terrific turn of foot that is blunted by soft ground. I see him improving markedly on this effort when he gets faster ground and see him as a serious threat to win something decent at one of the Festival meetings in the Spring when the ground dries out.

SUBLIMITY (33) also moved pretty well turning in. But he too has a turn of foot that's most effective on a faster surface. In addition he surely needs to be fresher than he was here. I was actually surprised to see him line up and wonder now whether he'll recover form the race in time to produce his best at Cheltenham despite the seven week gap.

Hardy Eustace turned in his third sub par effort in a row. It's hard to escape the conclusion that he's started to deteriorate now that he's twelve. Perhaps he can bounce back if he's rested and brought back over two and a half miles or gets soft ground again over two. But I rather doubt it.

BEAU MICHAEL (25) was forced to abandon his normal front running role due to the presence of so many pacemakers. His sub par run seems to confirm that he's what American punters call a 'need to lead' front runner. Next time he hits a race where he can dominate from the front I'd bet on him bouncing back to form.

I STILL SAY FORPADYDEPLASTER WANTS THREE MILES

Over the last few years the Gold Cup wins of Kicking King and War Of Attrition seem to have inspired the connections of several top three mile prospects to run them over two miles as novice chasers.

Whether or not this is a good idea I can't really say. What I can say is that the trend has made the form of many of the top novice chasers harder to understand. Nowadays you have to figure out whether a horse contesting a race like last week's Arkle Perpetual Challenge Cup at Leopardstown is a genuine two miler or is simply being kept to short trips while it's learning the ropes.

I'm pretty sure that FORPADYDEPLASTERER (38) falls into the latter category and that he will be running over three miles plus next season. He's a great big strapping sort that's built and bred for longer distances. And his stamina nearly pulled the race out of the fire for him at Leopardstown.

GOLDEN SILVER (38) looked to have finally got the better of Forpadydeplasterer as he went half a length up with 75 yards to go. But then both horses tired so badly they slowed to a walk and Forpadydeplasterer began to reel the winner in again as they approached the line, finally losing by a rapidly shrinking margin of a head.

It's very hard for jockeys to judge the right pace to go on ground as heavy as it was at Leopardstown. And the way the principals stopped in the closing stages indicates they'd gone off just a bit too fast early on. They came home nearly two seconds slower up the run in than they did in the other longer race on the same card. And I guarantee that it was in the last 75 yards where they lost all that ground.

I'm convinced it was the searching pace and heavy ground that brought Forpadydeplasterer into this race. If he tackles the Arkle at Cheltenham on the fast ground which normally prevails at the meeting I can't see him getting competitive. I suspect his trainer now sees things the same way as he said after the race that he would let the ground dictate whether Forpadydeplasterer would go for the Arkle or the Sun Alliance Chase at Cheltenham.

Forpadydeplasterer stayed on well to take fourth in the Ballymore Properties at the Cheltenham Festival last year. The extra half mile of the Sun Alliance Chase could well be enough to see him go a lot closer, maybe even win, this time around.

The only real concern I have with Forpadydeplasterer at this stage is his jumping. He seems totally committed to the idea of not hitting any of the jumps. When he met a couple of fences wrong here he stood off and put in a huge leap to ensure he got over safely. Perhaps this is because he was slightly stretched by the strong pace and the short distance. But I have to say that I'd like to see him given one more run, preferably over two and a half miles plus, to gain a bit more experience of jumping before Cheltenham.

Golden Silver is clearly a decent two miler. And it was a shrewd move on the part of Willie Mullins to cut him back in trip. He's now won both his starts since being cut back to trips short of two and a quarter miles.

In reality I don't think Golden Silver is any better than a Grade 3 horse. Before he was cut back in trip he's won just once in a sequence of 27 races. If he was better than Grade 3 he'd have done better than that, however long a distance he was running. There are plenty of slow run races over jumps, especially in France where he's done most of his racing. His class should have enabled him to win more of them if he was that good.

I don't think I'd care to bet on Golden Silver lasting up the hill at Cheltenham even over two miles. He'd be more interesting at Aintree. In addition all but one of his wins have come when he's been fresh. So I suspect his wins from now on will all come on one of his first two completed starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter - this being the norm for good two mile chasers.

MANSONY AS GOOD AS EVER

MANSONY (40) has never shown his best from in Britain. My theory is that he's so big and strong the softer British fences don't suit him. In any event he showed that he's as good as ever when picking up THYNE AGAIN (37) at the last and running away from him up the run in to take the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse.

Mansony has won over two and a half miles and on faster ground. But it is over shorter trips on soft or heavy going that he's been most reliable. So far he's won six of the seven times he's run less than two and a half miles over fences on soft or heavy ground in Ireland.

Thyne Again is an even bigger, heavier topped sort than the winner and is another mudlark. He had won the previous six times he'd encountered going that race times indicates was yielding or softer, including in Grade 1 company.

However Thyne Again has always looked to me like a horse that would be better over two and a half miles and might well stay three. This certainly seemed the case here as he was twice stretched into jumping errors by the strong pace over the two miles and a furlong. He slowed up and hit the fifth when he was meeting it wrong and did the same to a lesser extent four out. He still managed to improve and get to the lead two out but didn't have the pace of the winner.

Thyne Again's trainer said after the race that he's be stepping the horse up to a longer trip next time, maybe to three miles in the Hennessy. I'll be very interested to see how he does there as he's run faster than this before and blew home by over twenty lengths in a Grade 2 the last time he ran two and a half miles.

PARSONS PISTOL HAS TREMENDOUS STAMINA

Last season PARSONS PISTOL (38) showed that he has few equals when it comes to slogging through mud at a marathon distance off a searching early pace. And he demonstrated this again when ploughing through the sludge to take a very strongly run three mile Grade 2 novice chase at Naas. Third placed CHIRAAZ (23) had gone off so strongly that basically everything was stopping in the last quarter mile, even Parson Pistol.

I'd be wary of opposing Parsons Pistol on genuinely soft or heavy ground over three miles plus in future, especially when there's a big enough field to ensure a strong early pace. His obvious target just has to be the Irish Grand National. If it came up soft for that race he'd be very interesting.

EBADIYAN SHOULD BE TRIUMPH FAVOURITE

EBADIYAN (39) ran about as fast as you normally see a juvenile hurdler go when winning the Grade 3 Juvenile Hurdle at Punchestown. Indeed, barring an unlikely once a decade freak like Detroit City coming along, I don't expect to be awarding any horse in his division a bigger speed rating all season.

Ebadiyan jumped nimbly and quickly and rapidly put distance between himself and his pursuers when asked to go and win his race. The turn of foot he displayed will almost certainly be seen to better effect on the faster ground which normally prevails for the Cheltenham Festival. So I'm surprised that Boylesports still have him as big as 16-1 in their ante-post list for the Triumph. As I see it he deserves to be favourite.

FREDS BENEFIT WILL DO BETTER BACK OVER FENCES

Two of last season's fastest novice chasers, PERCE ROCK (37) and FREDS BENEFIT (35) met over hurdles at Punchestown against clearly inferior rivals. Not surprisingly, they pulled clear, with Perce Rock beating Freds Benefit home after it had looked like the result would go to other way for much of the race.

Both horses have run a fair bit faster over fences, earning ratings of 40 from me. And I've no doubt they will do so again. But right now I'm inclined to believe that it is Freds Benefit that will do best when the pair switch back to the bigger jumps.

Freds Benefit jumped really well and moved strongly in the lead for most of the race. He kicked on and had Perce Rock on the stretch for quite a way before finally getting outrun from the last.

I confess that I don't yet understand Freds Benefit. It's easy to say that he's a Punchestown specialist since this was his first loss in four starts at the track. But he's won elsewhere.

My tentative theory is that Freds Benefit is basically a two and a quarter mile horse that is effective on very soft or heavy ground at two miles and may sometimes not quite last two and a half if the pace is too strong or the going too soft. He was unlucky when falling two out with the race won in a Grade 2 last year and will surely be winning at that sort of level sooner rather than later.

Perce Rock is rather a scary jumper. He landed on all fours at one of the jumps and looked unbalanced and unsafe when asked to go for a big one at the last. It's easy to see why he fell in back to back chases last term.

Perce Rock has any amount of ability. But unless his jumping improves I'd bet against him winning in the very best company. So far he's run well but lost all six times he's tackled Grade 1 or 2 contests and won seven of the eight times he's run in Grade 3 or lower class. If he were mine I'd be inclined to target him at Conditions chases in Britain where the softer fences and small fields would suit him.

MAJESTIC CONCORDE CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

Not many horses are pattern class on the flat, over hurdles and over fences. But MAJESTIC CONCORDE (38) achieved that distinction when winning a very strongly run novice chase at Leopardstown.

Settled in mid-field, Majestic Concorde was basically just hunted around for most of the race as the mare COSCORRIG (35) set a blistering pace up front. He moved up readily two out and quickly went by Coscorrig soon after the last two win by six lengths, still traveling strongly as they crossed the line.

This was a terrific chasing debut by Majestic Concorde who jumped like an old hand.

Trainer Dermot Weld seems disinclined to go down the Cheltenham route with Majestic Concorde. And you can understand why when you realise that the horse's worst ever run came the only time he ran at Cheltenham last March.

If he were mine I'd be inclined to keep Majestic Concorde fresh and hold him back for one of the big two mile handicap chases at the Festival meetings in the Spring. The obvious one would be the Red Rum Chase at Aintree. That would mean sidestepping the novice events but enable him to exploit the relatively lenient handicap mark he looks set to get away with following this win.

There are two other reasons to hold Majestic Concorde back until the Spring. The first is that, like most smart two mile chasers, he probably needs to be fresh. The second is that Dermot Weld says he needs the good ground which tends to prevail in the Spring. You might think that odd seeing the official going was yielding to soft at Leopardstown. But for some reason they've been misreporting the ground at Leopardstown for the last few meetings. Race times indicate it has been riding a lot faster than the official going.

It seemed rather unfair that Coscorrig got caught as she had done all the work. She went off at a terrific clip, jumped boldly and soon opened up a big advantage. She was twenty lengths clear three out. But sadly there was no way she was ever going to hold the winner once he began his run. He outclassed her plain and simple. However, against her own sex, or even against ordinary geldings, she's going to be a betting proposition in two mile novice chases from now on. Though it may turn out she needs good or faster ground to run this well.

SCHINDLERS HUNT BOUNCES BACK OVER LONGER TRIP

Last season I suggested that SCHINDLERS HUNT (39) might well do best over longer than the two miles he was then running over. So apparently did jockey Paddy Flood. We were both proved right when the horse took the Leopardstown Chase over 2m 5f on Sunday. However I wouldn't go running away with the idea that Schindlers Hunt is now likely to stay three miles. All the indications are that he won't.

There is plenty of speed on the dam's side in the pedigree of Schindlers Hunt. And his sire, Oscar Schindler, has yet to produce a winner over a trip longer than the 2m 5f of the Leopardstown Chase.

The clincher is that Schindlers Hunt was stopping on the run in. He took 23.6 seconds to get from the last to the finish compared with just 19.8 seconds by Majestic Concorde in the novice chase. His stride shortened noticeably in the closing stages and he was out on his feet nearing the line.

I concede that one reason Schindlers Hunt stopped in the last furlong or so is that he kicked on too hard off a strong pace too far from home. He was allowed to stride on after six out and did so exuberantly, using a little bit too much energy. In fact, thanks to his burst, they covered the nearly two miles from the fourth to the last fence half a second quicker than they did in the novice chase which was half a mile shorter. The effort told and hurt the final time but I've taken account of it to adjust the speed rating.

No doubt the big surge Schindlers Hunt put in can be explained by the fact he was expecting the winning post to come along a lot sooner than it did, having run over shorter distances in his recent starts. But the way he was tiring tells me that 2m 5f is the absolute limit of his stamina and that two and a half miles is probably better for him.

Now that he is running over a more suitable distance I'd bet on Schindler's Hunt being more consistent. I'd also bet on him needing the good ground his trainer says he prefers. He could get away with soft ground over two miles. But over two and a half I don't think he'll last home on anything but good ground.

The cut in distance of the Leopardstown Chase from three miles plus the faster ground seemed to catch out last year's winner MISTER TOP NOTCH (37). He looked to have a serious chance as he moved up, going strongly after four out. But the sustained surge of the winner from six out to the last eventually seemed to break him and he made no progress from before the final jump. I think this big, tall, long striding sort lack the pace to beat top chasers over less than three miles, especially on such fast ground. And it's interesting to note that he's won big races both times that he's encountered heavy ground over fences beyond two and a half miles. If it comes up really soft for the Hennessey Gold Cup at Leopardstown I'd still be interested in his chances. He ran a good fourth in the race last year and seems to reserve his best efforts for the course.

Runner up KILCREA CASTLE (37) was under pressure a long way out and showed remarkable stamina to keep on so well. I've long felt that he'd benefit from a step up to trips beyond three miles, so this was a terrific effort given the short distance. He's been very consistent at two and a half miles plus and hasn't had the chance to run three miles for almost a year. The next time he does I'll be very interested in his chances. I can see him winning a big handicap over the trip soon.

FINGER ONTHE PULSE (37) ran his usual honest race to take third. His record suggests strongly that he now needs a break of at least five weeks before he'll be able to run well again.

It's easy to dismiss fourth placed VIC VENTURI (37) as a reliable yardstick that never wins. But while it's true that he has lost fifteen in a row he is clearly a smart horse when he gets good ground, especially over three miles. I see him as a good prospect for a valuable three mile handicap chase on good ground at one of the big Spring Festivals.

I liked the way that that CLEW BAY CLOVE (35) improved during the stampede from the sixth last, having been flat to the boards in the rear earlier on. He couldn't sustain his effort. But this is not surprising as his five wins have all come over exactly two miles and this was five furlongs longer. His wins have also all occurred on one of his first two starts following a break longer than six weeks. This was his first. So if he cuts back to two miles next time he'll be rather interesting.

MERCHENT PADDY COULD BE ANYTHING

It's tough to say just how good MERCHENT PADDY (37) really is following his Grade 2 novice chase win at Leopardstown. The reason is that although the race was officially two miles, five furlongs, he was only running at top speed for five furlongs from the fourth last fence to the last. He covered that distance 2.3 seconds quicker than they did in the shorter novice chase on the same card. But the early pace was moderate before that and he was only coasting on the run in afterwards. Using a sectional timing formula I've developed suggests he would have run a time that is Grade 3 for a novice if the pace had been strong throughout. But the way he cleared away so easily on the run in suggests he might just be a fair bit faster than that.

Merchent Paddy's trainer says he dislikes heavy ground. It also looks like he always needs his first run of the season and requires at least two and a quarter miles. He's won six of the nine times he's completed the course over this far after his seasonal debut, with his three losses coming on heavy ground. I want to see him run one more time before I commit to a definite opinion about the level of his ability.

For most of the race I thought it was simply a matter of how far BERONI (31) would win as he was cruising along in the lead, moving really strongly. But it looks like he simply doesn't stay beyond two miles, even off a slow pace like this one, as he tired from before the last.

Most good two mile chasers need to be fresh. And Beroni’s form suggests this is true for him. So I'd like to see him laid off for at least five weeks now and brought back over two miles. It's also worth noting that although he jumped boldly here he wasn't bending his back properly at many of the obstacles. Clearly he still has a bit to learn about jumping fences. He should improve when he does.

MUIRHEAD HAS A SERIOUS CHANCE IN CHAMPION HURDLE

I will never cease to be amazed at the remarkable way that experienced older horses can manage to clock a decent final time however slow they go in the early stages. This was demonstrated once more in the Grade 1 December Festival Hurdle at Leopardstown.

In this race and the good novice hurdle earlier on the card, the early pace was noticeably slow. In fact they reached the fourth jump just a tenth of a second sooner in the big race than they did in the novice contest. Yet they managed to come home from there no less than 4.7 seconds faster.

The race developed into a flat out sprint from the third last and this clearly suited the first and second better than any of the other runners. Still, the final time clocked by the winner SUBLIMITY (42) shows that he's every bit as good as when he won the Champion Hurdle back in 2007.

As everyone knows, Sublimity is best fresh. So I can't see the point of running him in the Toshiba Champion Hurdle on January 25th as that race surely comes too soon. It may also spoil his chances for Cheltenham. But if he's kept fresh for the big one he'll surely have a real shot of pulling off the double. He has a serious turn of foot and can sustain it for a long way.

Runner up WON IN THE DARK (42) looks a much better prospect for the Toshiba Champion Hurdle as he's lost both his starts at Cheltenham but would have won all six of his completed hurdles starts on yielding or faster ground elsewhere if a couple of narrow losses had gone his way. He's not that big or strong, and I just don't think he quite lasts home up that steep final hill at Cheltenham.

Here Won In The Dark went with the winner when he kicked clear of the rest before the last and kept on very strongly despite being flat to the boards and protesting at this by flashing his tail. He's clearly very useful.

BRAVE INCA (39) got outpaced by the first two form the last after being in the first two throughout. He keeps hitting the same G3/G2 speed rating and hasn't run faster in a couple of years now. My feeling is that at age eleven he has lost a step or two.

MUIRHEAD (39) was one of the horses that disliked the slow early pace. He threw his head around in the early stages as he fought to go faster (something he's done before in slow run races). Nonetheless he moved up smoothly approaching the homestraight, moving as well as anything. He just couldn't sprint as well as the principals though and came home fourth.

Muirhead ran a similar sort of race in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle on his seasonal debut. There he moved really well till a mistake two out stopped him in his tracks.

I recognize that all the best jumpers by Muirhead's sire, Flemensfirth, have been best over two and a half miles. I'm also aware that his dam is a sister to Nononito who won the Group 1 Prix du Cadran on the flat over two and a half miles and also finished third in the French Champion Hurdle over three and a quarter. However she herself didn't seem to get home in four tries over hurdles in Ireland and I suspect Muirhead takes after her in lacking stamina for two and a half miles.

Muirhead is a very pacey sort that pulls hard if he sees too much daylight as he did here. My feeling is that he needs a bigger field to ensure he gets more cover and a stronger pace rather than a longer distance. The way that he's moved on his two runs this term and the time he clocked here tell me that he will have a serious chance in the Champion Hurdle thanks to the big field that lines up for that race and the strong early pace it almost always produced. Certainly I'll think long and hard before opposing him the next time he runs in anything but a single figure field.

SIZING EUROPE (38) is another that needs a stronger pace to run at. He's a good-bodied chasing sort that simply can't produce a sprint finish. Here he was really stretched in the closing stages, even reverting to his old habit of overjumping when forced to take the last at a speed he found uncomfortable.

Sizing Europe has won four of the five times he's run in races with 15 runners or more (he injured his back in his sole loss) and won just one time out of eight in smaller fields. He's clearly helped by the very strong early pace that huge fields generate. And I could see how you could argue that he'll do better at Cheltenham in the Champion Hurdle for this reason. But Sizing Europe has yet to earn a proper Grade 1 speed rating from me. I'm still inclined to believe that we won't see the best from him till he goes chasing.

Just how slow the early pace was can be seen from the fact that AITMATOV (37) was able to sit comfortably within three lengths of the lead. On his previous start he was totally outpaced in the early stages in a more strongly run race, jumping the fifth last 10.8 seconds behind the leader.

Here when the sprint for home began three out Aitmatov was instantly outpaced, dropping out rapidly through the field. And you could see he disliked being crowded as this happened too. He began to pick up a bit very late and didn't run that badly.

Aitmatov does seem best in smaller fields (eight or less) and probably needs two and a half miles to produce his very best.

I'm not yet prepared to concede that the performance RIVER LIANE (36) put up here represents the limit of his ability. He impressed me when winning over the same course and distance in March and again when winning on his Irish debut this term on ground that was clearly too fast. The only decent theory I can come up with is that perhaps he needs a really long break to produce his best as he's a light-framed horse.

Old HARDY EUSTACE (30) showed once more that these days two miles is no use to him unless the going is really soft and the early pace strong.

MADE IN TAIPAN NEEDS A BREAK

JAYO (37) certainly looked good winning at Naas on New Year's day. But lines of form and the clock suggest that he's probably not quite up to winning the Arkle. In fact if there was a winner of the big Cheltenham race in the contest I strongly suspect that it is the runner up MADE IN TAIPAN (29).

Made In Taipan ran a proper Grade 1 time for a novice chaser when toying with the subsequent Durkan New Homes Novice Chase winner Follow The Plan at Navan. Now it looks like he's gone the way of most horses that run really fast times in two mile chases and needs a rest.

Most of the top two mile novice chasers are at their best on their first two completed starts each season but then need a break of at least five weeks afterwards to run well again. Indeed 75% of all Grade 1 two mile chases outside the novice ranks have been won by horses that were fresh in this way. It should therefore be no big surprise that Made In Taipan won his first two chases this season but has run below from in his two subsequent starts.

If Made In Taipan is give a break before his next start I will be very interested in his chances.

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET SHOWS MORE PACE

MIKAEL D'HAGUENET showed a new dimension to his talents when taking a renewal of the Grade 2 Slaney Novice Hurdle that was so slow run it earned the winner a speed rating well into the minus region.

When I'm timing a slow run race with a stopwatch I hover over the video waiting to find the point where the pace picked up. In the Slaney Novice Hurdle this didn't happen until the run up to the last jump (something I can't recall ever seeing before). The race developed into a flat out sprint from there and it was impressive that the big, strapping winner could show enough pace to put his rivals away comfortably.

Mikael D'Haguenet looks built for marathon distances over fences and has yet to win on anything but really soft ground. But the pace he showed in the closing stages here coupled with the fast time he ran when beating Pandorama make me think he may not be an entirely forlorn hope in the Ballymore Properties if there's a bit of cut in the ground. More realistically though he's a horse to savour for next season over fences.

NEPTUNES COLLONGES BEST ON FASTER GROUND

NEPTUNES COLLONGES was still leading when he crashed to the ground at the second last in the Lexus Chase. But the reason he did so was that he was under pressure because the eventual winner EXOTIC DANCER (41) had closed in on him and was moving powerfully. I've no doubt that he would have been soundly beaten had he stood up. And I blame the ground.

Neptunes Collonges just isn't as big or strong as most of the top three mile chasers, and I think this means he has problems jumping fences out of soft ground. He did win one chase for four year olds on soft ground in France. But he has lost all his other six starts over fences on going that race times indicate was softer than yielding. The only time he has lost in nine chase starts on yielding or faster ground was in the 2007 Gold Cup where eighteen runners lined up. Big fields are as problematical for light-framed horses as soft ground is over fences (because they come off worst in the traffic problems that big fields invariably create).

When he gets a fast surface again I'd be wary of betting against Neptunes Collonges. In fact if the Cheltenham Gold Cup features a smaller field than normal and is run on fast ground I'd be rather interested in his chances. My feeling now is that his poor record at Cheltenham stems from the big fields and soft ground he's faced there.

Exotic Dancer obviously has a shot in the big race too as long as the early pace is strong enough for him as it was here. He deserved this Grade 1 win as he's been one of the best three mile chasers of recent years. With many of the other Gold Cup horses now in decline this might well be his year.