AN CATHOIR MOR IS IMPROVING

AN CATHOIR MOR (40) clocked a seriously fast time when coming from far back to win the Arkle at Leopardstown. Held up off the searching early gallop, he was 12-15 lengths back at the third last but started to gain ground rapidly soon after, led after the last and rolled past the runner up Sports Line who as that one tired.

I've said before that this big, top heavy horse seems to peak in the second half of the season as he's hard to get fit earlier. This was the fifth time he's won in the January to March period in six tries.

It does seem likely that trainer Henry de Bromhead is right to say An Cathoir Mor needs soft or heavy ground to produce his best. So, despite the fact this was one of the best novice chase performances of the season, I doubt we'll be seeing An Cathoir Mor line up at Cheltenham unless the weather turns bad again. But wherever the horse runs from now on I'd be wary of opposing him when he gets his ground.

SPORTS LINE (39) is a big, strong, heavy topped muscular sort that is more agile and pacey than most horses his size. He's a gung-ho front runner that goes off at a searching pace and just keeps rolling. Here, thanks to Major Finnegan and Take The Breeze taking each other on, he was able to take a lead in the early stages and sit a close third. He moved up quickly approaching three out and looked to have sewn the race up turning in, until you looked back and saw how rapidly the winner was gaining. Sports Line tried hard to hold him at bay and drew twenty lengths clear of the rest as he did so.

On his chasing debut at Navan Sports Line jumped well and set a strong pace as usual. He began to tire approaching the home straight as they took the home turn and approached the third last. And this was the only jump where he made an error. Instead of standing off as he had earlier in the race when meeting a jump wrong, he took the easy way out and ran down the fence to right to put himself right. His jockey shook him up and he picked up again to jump the last two straight and well. He ended up winning clearly by nine lengths. Though he'd run himself to near exhaustion by the finish.

Having watched that race I can see what trainer Willie Mullins means when he says Sports Line is hard on himself and hard to train. He takes so much out of himself he's always going to need rests between his runs. And he's so big and top heavy he must be hard to keep sound. Certainly I'd be worried about his chances on fast ground in future, though I must concede he's such an athletic sort it's possible he'd handle it.

If his rider hadn't lost his whip in one short head defeat, Sports Line would have won all five times he'd run two miles before this race. He's best going left-handed according to Mullins so the Arkle at Cheltenham is the obvious target. The fact that he was content to settle in third this time around bodes well for his chances in that race. If it comes up soft on the day I'd give him a real chance.

TAKE THE BREEZE (28) was attempting to become only the second British winner of the Arkle in its 54 year history. He went well up front with Major Finnegan for a long way at a very good pace. But, after seeing how he'd hurdled the fences at Newbury I'd expressed concerns about him being able to adapt to the stiffer jumps in Ireland.

Take The Breeze got away with it and actually jumped well most of the way. But approaching three out, the last open ditch, Sports Line moved alongside and Take The Breeze was forced to jump the fence while sandwiched in between that one and Major Finnegan. He hit it quite hard and was beaten from there.

I wouldn't fancy Take The Breeze in a big field in the Arkle at Cheltenham or over the stiff fences at Aintree. But I can see him taking a decent novice chase in a smaller field elsewhere.

I think the key to fourth placed MAJOR FINNEGAN (28) is contained in a statement by his trainer following his second to Sizing Europe last time. He said the jockey "tried to settle him early on but he traveled way better when he let him go to the front."

On his comeback run Major Finnegan dumped his jockey on the way to the start and bolted. Then he proceeded to make all the running. Here he went off at a strong pace in the lead pressed by the British raider Take The Breeze before tiring.

It seems clear that Major Finnegan is best when allowed to bowl along unrestrained. The problem is he's always likely to get taken on for the lead by smart rivals in top novice chases such as this. Nonetheless on the faster ground his trainer says he prefers my speed ratings say he's good enough to win a Grade 3. If he were to find one with a small field that he could dominate from the front I'd like his chances.

BOBS PRIDE finished far back and was never in contention. But it's pretty obvious from his form that he is a Spring and Autumn horse. all his wins have been in late February to April or in August to October. This is quite a common pattern.

It's also clear that, while he's won following recent runs, Bobs Pride is best fresh. So if he's rested following this run I'd be rather interested in his chances next time as he's shown such smart form.

SORCEROR CAN CONJUR UP FESTIVAL WIN

SHAKERVILZ (38) was a good jumper of hurdles and had apparently been schooling well over fences at home. So it's no big surprise he jumped nimble and rallied well to take a good novice chase in fast time at Leopardstown on his chasing debut.

Shakervilz is smaller than the average chaser and rather light framed. So I wouldn't fancy his chances of winning in anything but a single figure field over the bigger jumps. But the way he won here suggests he's actually going to prove best over the minimum distance now he's running over fences despite the fact he stayed three miles over hurdles. His athletic physique and turn of foot certainly make him look more of a two miler than a stayer. I can readily see him winning a Graded novice chase over two miles.

Runner up SORCEROR (38) was clearly unlucky. He looked set to win comfortably when going by the winner approaching the last. But he ran green from there and despite continuing to move far better than the winner couldn't stop him getting up again. The fact his saddle slipped forward hardly helped the situation.

Sorceror is a big strong sort that won a point to point over three miles and looks built for two and a half miles to my eye. The form of his last run, where he finished a close fourth to Captain Cee Bee, Zaarito and An Cathaoir Mor has worked out amazingly well. He's a lightly raced sort that's improving and has scope to progress further, especially over longer. I see him as a great prospect for a big novice chase at one of the Spring Festivals, with the Jewson looking a good option.

SOLWHIT NEEDS TO RUN FASTER

It's hard to knock a horse that's won eight of its last ten starts, including five Grade 1's. But I have to say I can't rate SOLWHIT (40) that highly following his win in the Irish Champion Hurdle. In a true run race he was ridden right out but still clocked a time that suggests his five and three quarter length loss to Go Native in November is a fair reflection of the pair's comparative ability.

I could be wrong but my feeling is Solwhit will be found wanting at Cheltenham.

AN CATHAOIR MOR SHOULD GO FOR ARKLE AT LEOPARDSTOWN

Sprint finishes are more common in races for novices than in those for experienced chasers. Sp it was disappointing but not that surprising the runners went off at a very modest pace in a good 2m 1f novice chase at Fairyhouse.

In fact the leader Cousin Vinny reached the halfway stage 10.3 seconds later than the leader did in the Normans Grove Chase over the same distance one race earlier. He picked up a bit from there but still reached the fourth last 15.7 seconds later than they did in the Normans Grove. It was only from the fourth last that they really started racing properly, and they got from there to the finish line 3.4 seconds quicker than they did in the Normans Grove.

Thanks to the fact they were sprinting, the finish turned out to be rather a scrappy, tight affair. And it's clear the winner AN CATHOIR MOR (10) would have won more clearly if the pace had been stronger and he hadn't been forced to switch quite dramatically when short of room running up to the last.

For such a big horse An Cathoir Mor certainly found a good turn of foot to get up on the line. He'd appeared set to win a shade comfortably until his jockey suddenly realised there wasn't much of a gap for him to jump on the inside just a few strides before the last.

One good thing about the sprint finish is that it means the race cannot have taken much out of An Cathoir Mor. So it looks like a good idea for him to come out again in the Arkle at Leopardstown this weekend, especially when you take into account what his trainer Henry de Bromhead has said about him. A year go he told reporters "He's a bull of a horse who takes a savage amount of work." And more recently he said in connection with going for this weekend's big race "if there is one horse in the yard you could run twice in a week it's him as he seems to take his racing well."

Last time out An Cathaoir More looked to be going just as well as Captain Cee Bee and Zaarito two out when upsides that pair in one of the fastest novice chases of the season. But he made his only mistake when hitting the last and lost a lot of momentum to finish third. He still earned a pattern class speed rating from me.

It could very well be that An Cathaoir Mor blew up through lack of fitness in that race too seeing how hard he is to get fit. In this regard it's interesting to note that he's failed to win in seven starts before the turn of the year but scored four times out of five between January and March. My best guess is that in a truly run race and with a clear run at the last he'd have earned a rating of around 38 from me for this win. That puts him in with a real shot in the Arkle at Leopardstown.

SCOTSIRISH HARD TO PREDICT

SCOTSIRISH (39) is a horse that I've struggled for years to understand. Every time I come up with a new theory to explain why he runs well one day and poorly another he goes and proves me wrong.

Following his win in the Grade 2 Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse I now have yet another theory about Scotsirish. I reckon he's best in Ireland and with a run within 28 days over two miles or two miles and a furlong. He's won five of his six completed starts in these circumstances.

It's also interesting to note that Scotsirish has won all three times he's run over shorter trips on heavy ground.

Most likely Scotsirish runs in and out because in some races he gets the good gallop he seems to need and in others he doesn't.

In any event, when he runs to his best Scotsirish is clearly capable of matching strides with pretty much anything. It certainly looked that way at Fairyhouse.

THE HURL DESERVES A CRACK AT THE ALBERT BARTLETT

THE HURL (37) is a big, strong three mile chasing sort that set a strong gallop and rallied well when the runner up tried to tackle him after the last at Fairyhouse. The step up to three miles clearly suited him, and he clocked a time that marks him out as pattern class over the distance.

Trainer Mouse Morris says he believes The Hurl will be suited to faster ground. This seems logical as the dam's two previous winners were that way inclined and The Hurl doesn't show any knee action to speak of. Therefore a shot at the Albert Bartlett over three miles at the Cheltenham Festival seems like a good idea as the going should be faster there.

My one concern is that The Hurl showed such abundant stamina here that he may turn out to be a four miler in the long run. If so he'll probably lack the pace to win on quicker ground at Cheltenham. But he's improving quite rapidly at this stage, so I don't want to make any hard and fast predictions just yet.

WHODOYOUTHINK A SERIOUS CHELTENHAM CANDIDATE

WHODOYOUTHINK (39) ran the last two miles a tenth of a second quicker than the Grade 2 Juvenile hurdle winner when taking a maiden hurdle impressively at Leonardtown’s Christmas meeting. That's quite some feat seeing his race was quarter of a mile longer.

The pace was on right from the start, and I have to say, watching the video, it looked like Whodoyouthink might have gone off too fast. He set an unrelenting gallop that looked hard to sustain. But he managed the feat and by three out he had all his rivals well beat. From there he just went further and further away. From a speed ratings perspective it was helpful that his jockey kept him up to his work in the closing stages as this gave us a chance to see just how good he is. He ended up earning one of the biggest speed ratings I’ve given a novice hurdler all season.

I'd be somewhat dubious about Whodoyouthink being able to run this fast in pattern company at the same distance of two and a quarter miles or less. At that level there'd be something to take him on and force him to run a less well paced race. Ideally I think he wants three miles as he's a strong, deep chested sort that clearly has loads of stamina. He's got the size and scope to jump a fence in time too. Meanwhile the race I like him for is the Albert Bartlett over three miles at the Cheltenham Festival. Before then he should be able to win a Graded contest.

ALAIVAN PROBABLY BEST AROUND TIGHTER TRACKS

ALAIVAN (31) looked a good thing to take the Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas when you took into account his very smart flat form and tremendous debut win over timber. But he seemed to blow his chances by pulling too hard.

After fighting with him for a couple of furlongs Alaivan's jockey allowed him to bowl along in front at a strong pace. But even approaching halfway Alaivan was still putting his head to the left in an effort to get away from his rider. So it's not surprising he had nothing left when the eventual winner Carlito Brigante cruised by early in the straight. Nonetheless he still managed to hang on for second.

It seems increasingly likely that Alaivan needs relatively tight turns to curb his enthusiasm and enable him to last home. So far he's lost all three times he's run on big galloping ovals but dotted up all three times he's run around tighter courses. He earned ratings as big as 38 from me on the flat and that would be good enough to win pretty much any juvenile hurdle.

Having seen this run and studied his form I'm happy to draw a line through Alaivan's name as far as the Triumph Hurdle is concerned.

Unfortunately there are no big juvenile hurdles in Ireland run around tight tracks from now till the end of the season. So if Alaivan is going to win something decent there are only two option, both of which are in Britain. These are the Grade 2 Adonis juvenile hurdle at Kempton next month and the Grade 1 Anniversary Hurdle at the Aintree Festival in the Spring. As a punter I'm fantasising about him running a string of clunkers on galloping tracks before running at Aintree where I can see him going in at big odds. But the logical thing is to take him to Kempton first and skip Cheltenham.

CARLITO BRIGANTE (36) ran a solid Listed class time and should be able to go quicker seeing how he just coasted home. And he's certainly got the size and scope to do well over jumps. However he's going to have to go a fair bit quicker to win the Triumph so I'm not keen on the relatively short odds the bookies are currently offering.

TRANQUIL SEA CAUGHT OUT BY SLOW PACE

I've noted before that GOLDEN SILVER (25) is tough to beat in circumstances that don't tax his stamina. This being so the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase was run to suit him perfectly. The pace was moderate and he was allowed to set it from well before halfway. As a result he had plenty in reserve to repel his sole serious challenger Tranquil Sea and then do him for speed in the closing stages.

In the last four years Golden Silver has won all four times he's run two miles and a furlong or less outside of a very stiff track. He's won just one of his 26 starts at longer distances.

Although this run proved that Golden Silver doesn't need heavy ground it does not justify the shortening of his odds for the Champion Chase. He's shown repeatedly that he just doesn’t get home on stiffer courses like Cheltenham. So I wouldn't expect much better than his near fourty length loss in the Arkle last year.

TRANQUIL SEA (24) on the other hand does look a solid prospect for Cheltenham, especially over the longer distance of the Ryanair. He looked set to go by the winner entering the straight but couldn't produce the speed of his rival off the slow early gallop.

The key with Tranquil Sea, as with many short distance chasers, seems to be to keep him fresh. This being so I'd like to see him given no more than one run before Cheltenham and for that race to come around six weeks beforehand. In fact if he were mine I'd probably take him straight to the Ryanair.

PANDORAMA SHOWS HIS CLASS

A lot of things were against PANDORAMA (39) in the Grade 1 Knight Frank Novice Chase at the Leopardstown Festival. He wasn't at his physical peak according to trainer Noel Meade. The ground was only just on the yielding side of good, which should have been a bit too fast for him. The pace was decent, but it did pick up noticeably in the last mile, which is hardly ideal for such an out and out stayer. And he had to be asked for several big leaps to get into contention once his jockey started to put him in the race from three out.

But, as ever, Pandorama kept on responding and found a way to win. He battled his way to the front and rallied to re-take the lead when headed on the run in. In the final few strides he was beginning to surge in the manner he's shown so may times before and would have been a more clear cut winner in another fifty or so yards.

This was rather a messy race, one that hardly played to Pandorama's strengths. The fact that he won anyway is a tribute to his class and battling qualities.

It is easy to dismiss Pandorama as a one-paced mudlark that's going to be ideally suited to marathon distances. But he showed last time and once more here that he can actually produce a very decent finishing run once he's got rolling. Indeed he almost always looks very strong at the end of his races.

Previously I was concerned about Pandorama's ability to act on anything but soft or heavy ground. But here he won on ground so fast he came within 4.6 seconds of the fastest time clocked in a three mile novice chase at Leopardstown in the last fourteen years. Judged by race times it was good to soft as billed. This being so I am far more optimistic than I was before about Pandorama's chances of taking the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

Pandorama will now be rested till Cheltenham which sounds a good idea seeing that he wasn't at his physical best for this and lost a fair bit of weight for the run according to trainer Noel Meade. It's s shame he lost that one race to Mikael d'Haguenet when he was wrong behind. But he's won his other eight starts under rules and remains one of the most exciting prospects we've seen in some time. If it comes up good to soft or softer at Cheltenham I'll be wary of opposing him. The steep uphill finish there will suit his running style down to the ground.

WEAPON'S AMNESTY (39) ran a big race to go under by only a short head. He lost his hurdles debut but had won all the other four times he'd previously run beyond two and a half miles on yielding or softer ground. He's already won a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival and is an obvious threat to Pandorama and co in the RSA Chase this time. He jumps left and needs to go that way around over fences according to his trainer so Cheltenham has to be his big target.

CATCH ME (38) needed genuinely soft ground to produce his best form over hurdles but ran his best race yet over fences on the yielding ground here to take third. He jumped well too apart from a mistake five out. I'm now inclined to believe that since he's not that big or scopey he may actually prefer a bit of bounce in the ground now he's running over fences as it helps him clear the jumps. Whether or not he'll reach the same heights he did over timber is another matter. Due to his physique I remain a little dubious on that score.

LENABANE (37) jumped well and was bang there all the way. He rallied to take the lead briefly just after the last but just couldn't go with the first two when they hooked up in a sustained duel to the line. He clearly improved for the step up to three miles and looks set to win something decent in the near future.

ALPHA RIDGE (29) confirmed that he needs soft or heavy ground to produce his best. He got stretched into a couple of errors when the gallop picked up and lacked the pace to recover.

OSCAR DAN DAN STILL INTERESTING FOR WORLD HURDLE

POWERSTATION (39) is a quirky horse that has to be held up for a late run. He's very consistent though below Grade 1 class in Conditions races beyond a two and a half miles. If one photo had gone his way his success in the Christmas Hurdle would have been the fourth time in a row he'd won in such circumstances.

It does seem clear that Powerstation is not quite up to beating the very top staying hurdlers. However this has not been established in regards to the runner up OSCAR DAN DAN (38).

Oscar Dan Dan is also rather quirky in that he needs company to encourage him to run at top speed. This being so it cannot have been helpful that he had to swing out wide when Healy's Bar fell two out. There were only six runners left, most of whom were soon well behind him. But he eventually rallied strongly once he got within hailing distance of the winner and was puling his lead back strongly in the last hundred yards.

The big field that normally lines up for the World Hurdle is a big plus for Oscar Dan Dan. While I recognise that defending champion Big Bucks is very smart I have to say that the 33-1 you can now get about Oscar Dan Dan looks awfully big. If he hadn't tipped up three runs back he would almost certainly have won his three starts before this one, and there were obvious excuses for him this time. The new riding tactics have clearly improved him markedly. I'd be wary of opposing him, especially in bigger fields than this where he can get the cover he needs.

WHAT A FRIEND CAN BEAT ALMOST ANYTHING

With half a mile left in the Lexus Chase it looked like WHAT A FRIEND (41) was going to win by a huge margin. He was swinging along on the bridle, going far better than any of his rivals. But he's a horse that needs to do everything on the bridle. So his jockey didn't ask him for a big effort until between the last two jumps. And, as ever, the response was not great. What A Friend got to the front but clearly idled when he did so, allowing Money Trix to close up dramatically in the last few strides.

Trainer Paul Nicholls seemed annoyed at suggestions What A Friend was ungenuine judged by his post race comments. But I don't think ungenuine is the right word. What A Friend is simply a very tricky ride that needs to be delivered at the last possible moment as he idles when he gets to the front too soon or sees too much daylight. In fact my strong suspicion is that he has any amount of ability and would show even better form with a tougher target to aim at. I'm not sure he's ever going to like the prolonged uphill finish at Cheltenham as it forces him off the bridle. But elsewhere I can readily see him beating almost anything as long as his jockey doesn't get after him too soon, which is still what I reckon happened when he finished second to Denman in the Hennessy.

If he were mine I'd be keeping What A Friend to Ireland for his next couple of starts and aim for the Hennessy at Leopardstown and the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. I wouldn't oppose him in either of those contests.

Runner up MONEY TRIX (41) had finished second in a Grade 1 before and might well have won all his other previous eight starts if one had been longer and he had jumped better in the other two. He is a heavy topped horse that has had leg problems, so he has been kept to yielding and soft ground. He finished with a flourish and would probably have appreciated a stronger early gallop as he clearly stays well. He's remarkably consistent and certainly capable of winning a Grade 1.

JONCOL (40) looked to have a big chance when kicking clear after two out. But he's such a giant of a horse he has very little in the way of acceleration and this once more provide his undoing here.

It should be noted that this run does not fully prove that Joncol gets three miles. They went such a modest pace for the first three quarters of a mile they were able to cover the last two and a quarter miles 1.5 seconds faster than the smart Zaarito did in a good novice chase over 2m 3f on the same card.

NOTRE PERE (36) is all about stamina rather than speed. Indeed his connections are now talking about the Grand National. So with hindsight he would surely have done better setting a much stronger pace for the first six or seven furlongs than he did. As it is he found himself done for pace in the closing stages of a race that was effectively a two and a quarter mile chase.

To be fair it takes more than one horse to ensure a strong pace. Competition is needed. In this regard it's interesting to note that Notre Pere has lost all nine times he's run in races with less than twelve runners. In addition Notre Pere does seem to need softer ground to produce his best. The form figures for his last seven races where he's encountered soft or heavy ground in fields of twelve or more read 1121111.

It is easy to point to the fact that fifth placed SCHINDLERS HUNT (35) has lost the last eighteen pattern races he's contested as evidence that he's deteriorated. But I just don't think he stays three miles, not even off a modest early gallop. He is best at around two and a half miles on a relatively easy track. He's only had these circumstances twice in his entire career. The first was when he won last year's Leopardstown Chase in good style. The second was when he was an unlucky head loser in the Grade 1 Mumm Melling Chase at Aintree last April.

The big Aintree race will surely be the ultimate target for Schindlers Hunt once more this season. Before then the races I'd shoot for would be the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles and the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park. They're over the right sort of trip on his kind of course.

It was understandable that VOY POR USTEDES (34), the horse that beat Schindlers Hunt in last year's Mumm Melling Chase, was given one more shot at three miles. He'd run a somewhat distant third in the King George over the distance and if he'd stayed it here he would have had a big chance. However he tired over the last three, which pretty much knocks the whole idea on the head.

Voy Por Ustedes always needs his seasonal debut, but at trips shy of three miles he has shown nothing but brilliant form in all his completed outings over fences once he's got that first run under his belt.

It is possible that Voy Por Ustedes has deteriorated this season. But there's no solid evidence for that yet. So I'll be very interested in his chances if he once more takes in the Ascot Chase, the Ryanair and the Mumm Melling Chase, as he did in his final three starts last term. But for bumping into the brilliant Imperial Commander in the second of those races he would have won all three.

It was surprising to see COOLDINE start favourite in his first try against experienced chasers on his belated seasonal debut. No horse has won a Grade 1 chase on its seasonal debut in December or later in the last fourteen years (which is as far back as I can trace). So it looked very likely that Cooldine would need this run. Indeed only a few weeks before Cooldine's trainer Willie Mullins pulled him out of the John Durkan Leopardstown Chase. He said then "I was not happy with the way he worked this morning and he does not appear to be back to himself just yet. We'll have to wait a bit longer, and there are no firm plans for him."

Later when Mullins said Cooldine was going for the Lexus he told reporters "Stepping into a Grade One on your first run of the year is a big ask.” This being so, and taking into account the horse coughed after the race, I reckon Cooldine didn't do at all badly here. He ended up having to be pulled up but had worked his way into the race before tiring from three out.

In previous seasons Cooldine hasn't managed to hold his form until March. This season, given the fact he's now due to be rested again, my suspicion is that trend will be reversed. I'd expect him to need his run in the Gold Cup but have a good shot of bouncing back to his best at Aintree, Punchestown or Fairyhouse afterwards.

GLENCOVE MARINA'S PROMISING COMEBACK

GLENCOVE MARINA (33) was sent off favourite for a good Conditions hurdle at Punchestown despite a near two year absence caused by a tendon injury. However I don't think the Grade 1 winner was at all disappointing in just missing third under a considerate ride.

The results for Irish Conditions races over jumps like this suggest it was simply a warm up. Over the last 14 years 155 horses have run in such races off a break of 695 days or more, and only one of them scored.

Glencove Marina kept on well after clearly having problems adjusting back to the smaller jumps. He's still only eight and has had just ten lifetime starts. So I can readily see this very good looking horse once more proving competitive in Grade 1 company when he's switched back to fences. Trainer Willie Mullins described him as the best horse he's had in years before his injury and there's still time for him to fulfill all that potential.