KICKING KING LOOKING GOOD FOR HENNESSY

KICKING KING (38) ran a huge race on his comeback at Gowran Park to finish a close second to the smart NICKNAME (39). In fact my speed ratings say he is as good as ever.

You might argue with my assertion seeing that Kicking King only earned a Grade 3 speed rating from me at Gowran Park. But, as I've noted before, he gets better as he goes longer as you can see from the table below which shows the best speed ratings Kicking King has earned from me at various distances;

2 miles 37

2m 1f 38

2m 4f 42

2m 6f 43

3m 44

3m 2f 45

At Gowran Park Kicking King ran as fast as he ever has before over two miles and a furlong. So I don't see any reason why he shouldn't run as fast as he ever has before over longer distances.

It is obviously going to be a tough choice for Kicking King's connections to decide whether to go for the Red Mills Chase over 2m 4f or the Hennessy over three miles next time. But my ratings say that the longer race should be the one unless Kicking King is still short of peak fitness. His trainer will know that in ten days time according to a report I read.

Kicking King is certainly looking good for the Hennessy from where I sit. But I'd hold off taking the ever shrinking prices about him winning a second Gold Cup in March. I believe there's a good reason why no horse has ever won more than one Gold Cup without scoring in consecutive years. The reason is surely that the reason most horses miss winning the race for the second or third year running is a leg injury. And when a horse returns from a leg injury it's always a dodgy proposition on a steeply undulating track like Cheltenham. Horses hit their legs harder on the downhill sections of undulating courses, and I'd say it's this that's prevented horses from winning non-consecutive Cheltenham Gold Cups.

Nickname is set to run in the Hennessy. And I can't knock the idea as I've suggested myself that it might be a good idea to try him over longer. The argument here is that he won a Grade 2 as a novice over two miles, five furlongs and ran a close fourth as a four year old in the French Champion Hurdle over three and a quarter miles.

However I'm a great believer in a theory I call 'conditioning for distance'. I reckon that a horse is conditioned to run the distances it races over regularly. So, seeing that the only time Nickname has gone beyond 2m 1f in the last 13 months was in a slow run race, I'm inclined to be dubious about his ability to stay the three miles. In this regard I should point out that the French Champion Hurdle was run at a slow early pace when he ran fourth. In addition the two strongly run non-novice chases over longer trips that Nickname has run in both resulted in pretty wide margin losses. The clincher is that the biggest three speed ratings he's earned from me have all been in races over two miles or two miles and a furlong. My bet is that he's now developed into being a two mile specialist.

NEWMILL (38) bounced back to somewhere near his best to finish a close third. On the face of it he looks horribly hard to predict. But it does seem that over the last three seasons he's always needed his first two runs. He won three on the bounce following two clunkers on his first couple of starts the 05/06 season. He won well following another two poor runs on his first couple of starts last term. And now he's once more returned to form after two sub-par runs this term. If the trend continues he should hold his form for another run or two. Certainly I'll be interested in his chances next time out.

SIZING EUROPE DOESN'T LOOK GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHAMPION HURDLE

I suggested earlier this season that SIZING EUROPE (39) could develop into a Champion Hurdle candidate. So you might think I'm being contrary for knocking him now that he's won the AIG Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. But I've got to go with what the evidence tells me, and it tells me Sizing Europe doesn't look good enough to win at Cheltenham in March.

First of all let us deal with the sectional times. There are a couple of strong pointers here. The first concerns a comparison with the maiden hurdle where they went a slow early pace and only picked it up from the fifth.

I've developed a fair rule of thumb when comparing novice hurdles with races like the AIG Champion Hurdle. The results I've obtained suggest that if the early pace is slow in a novice hurdle a true Grade 1 horse will still come home in faster time however fast they themselves go early. Usually they'll clock about two seconds faster for the last half of the race however slow the novices went early.

This didn't happen at Leopardstown. In the maiden hurdle they came home from the fifth in 1 minute 38.15 seconds. Sizing Europe took 1 minute 38.90.

Another pointer is a comparison with the two and a half mile Grade 2 novice hurdle which looked a bit weak for the class. Normally if you compare the last two miles or so of two races, one of which is half a mile longer you'll find that in the half mile longer race they'll come home exactly three seconds slower than in the shorter one if the horses are of the same class. Again that didn't happen at Leopardstown. Clock Sizing Europe from the first of the eight hurdles he jumped and you'll find that he crossed the finishing line from there in 3 minutes 35.7. Liskennet jumped the last eight in her half mile longer race in 3 minute 38.2 seconds. That's a difference of only 2.5 seconds.

Then consider the horses that chased Sizing Europe home - Hardy Eustace and Al Eile. I've been banging on for ages about how Hardy Eustace has lost his speed and now needs longer than two miles unless the ground is bottomless. The way he had to be scrubbed along from so far out adds weight to this idea. And the presence of Al Eile right on his tail in third hardly boosts the form. Al Eile needs to be fresh to show his best and he wasn't here.

Finally watch how big Sizing Europe jumped. He took way too long in the air to be winning a Champion Hurdle. He lost a couple of lengths at the fourth by doing this and again lost ground by jumping much too big at the last. He got away with it this time. But at the kamikaze early gallop most Champion Hurdles are run he'll surely lose ground at several jumps and probably whack a few.

As I see it, Sizing Europe is shaping up as one of my top lays for the Cheltenham Festival. He has yet to run a proper Grade 1 time. And the evidence from Leopardstown tells me he's not going to.

THYNE AGAIN SMART AT SHORTER TRIPS

THYNE AGAIN (39) improved markedly to simply run away with the Baileys Arkle. And there's no doubt in my mind that he would still have scored if Scotsirish had stood up. I say this because he was always going remarkably easily and simply cruised away from his rivals up the straight as his rider sat stick still. In addition he ended up earning a bigger speed rating than I've ever given Scotsirish.

Thyne Again is a great big horse, so you can see why his connections are concerned about running him on fast ground. But his size certainly doesn't seem to limit his speed. He actually seems to prefer shorter distances. So far Thyne Again has won all four times he's run less than two and a quarter miles. His sole win in six starts over longer trips was in a slow run novice hurdle against weak opposition.

I'm not sure I like the way Thyne Again jumps at this stage. He doesn't seem as good as most horses at bending his back when jumping and this caused him to drag his back legs through a few of the fences here. However he won this so easily and in such fast time I'm not going to quibble. When Thyne Again gets some cut in the ground at shorter trips I'm going to be very wary of opposing him.

POMME TIEPY SHOULD GO FOR IRISH NATIONAL

I mentioned after her last win that POMME TIEPY (37) was bred to stay and finished very strongly. She did so again when stepped up to three miles to take the Grade 2 Woodlands Park Novice Chase at Leopardstown. On the run in KILCREA CASTLE (36) staged a powerful late run that looked sure to trouble her. But Pomme Tiepy simply stepped up a gear and powered home to clock a time 1.2 seconds faster from the last fence than Thyne Again managed in the Baileys Arkle in a much shorter race.

Clearly the way that she finishes so strong makes Pomme Tiepy an attractive proposition for the Sun Alliance Chase. The steep uphill run just has to help her there. But personally the big race I favour for Pomme Tiepy is the Irish National. In that race the extended distance will bring her stamina into play. And her nimble jumping will be a big advantage.

In any event, it seems likely to me that Pomme Tiepy can run a bit quicker than she has so far. She's an admirable mare that is clearly very smart.

Kilcrea Castle staged a similar late rally in the only point to point that he lost when completing the course. Like the winner he obviously stays well. He's lightly raced and looks a good prospect.

EARTH MAGIC SHOULD GO CHASING

After he'd dead heated at Thurles I noted that EARTH MAGIC (38) appeared to have bottomless stamina. Sure enough he improved to run his best ever race when stepped up to three miles to take the Grade 3 Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park from his admirable stablemate SWEET KILN (37).

Earth Magic is a big, good-bodied tall sort and looked like a chaser running against hurdlers here. He appeared to have a real fight on his hands as Sweet Kiln improved running into the homestraight. But he outstayed her from the run to the last.

I know it may sound like heresy to say this of a Bowe-trained horse. But I do think Earth Magic will do better over fences than hurdles. My ratings suggest he's not going to be quite good enough to win Championship events over timber. But I could see him winning a big staying handicap over fences.

Sweet Kiln was held up in fourth, presumably because her jockey was worried about her lasting the three miles on heavy ground. It looks like his concerns were justified because she ran below her best here. It would seem she needs good ground to produce her best over this far.

LISKENNETT PROBABLY BEST ON FASTER GROUND

LISKENNETT (37) clocked a respectable time to take the Grade 2 Toshiba Novice Hurdle over two and a half miles at Leopardstown. She lobbed along at the back of the field off a good pace in the early stages before moving up to challenge from four out. Just after the second last she and OUR BOB (36) produced the kind of surge only good horses can to open up a gap on the rest of the field. She kept going strongly from there to hold the late rally of SIEGEMASTER (37) on the run in.

Liskennett, like most mares, isn't that big. So I suspect she is not at her best when asked to jump out of very testing ground. In this regard I note that she has won the two hurdles races she's contested on what I rate the fastest ground she's encountered and lost the three run on the softest.

I think Liskennett will do even better on the fast ground they usually provide at the Cheltenham Festival because she looks to have a good deal more pace than the average staying hurdler. And I'd have no qualms about her stepping up to three miles there seeing how strongly she finished here. She now looks a key player for the big three mile novice hurdle.

Siegemaster is a big tall chasing type. So it's not surprising he got left behind a little bit when Liskennett and Our Bob kicked for home. But he rallied strongly to claw back the winner's lead all the way to the line.

I doubt that Siegemaster will be competitive at this sort of level over hurdles on good ground. He just doesn't have the pace for that. But he looks a very good prospect for three mile novice chases next year.

Our Bob was held up in last place early on but moved up steadily as they approached the straight and was moving best of all turning in. He looked a real threat to the winner between the last two. But after jumping the last he started to run green, went right then left and simply looked confused when his jockey rode him along vigorously. This was only his second run over hurdles so obviously he still has a bit to learn.

Seeing how he was able to match the acceleration the winner showed after the second last, I suspect Our Bob's trainer is right to say his charge will prefer faster ground. Horses with a turn of foot usually do. I can therefore see Our Bob improving on this run as he gains experience and has the chance to run on a faster surface. I wouldn't discount his chances of winning at one of the Festivals. Right now I think two and a half miles is his right trip though I can see him getting three over fences next season.

J'Y VOLE PROBABLY NEEDS A REST NOW

I've said before that J'Y VOLE (36) seems to be best fresh. This makes sense because she's relatively light-framed and seems to always run fast even when she doesn't has to. She demonstrated this again last week when winning by a distance for the second time in a row at Gowran Park.

Horses that are best fresh are normally good for their first two competed starts off a three month break and then require a rest of at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter. I call this 'the rest pattern'. J'Y Vole has won all five of her jump starts when she's been fresh in this way. But she's lost all six times she hasn't been. So if she runs in the Dr J P Moriarty Chase on February 10th, which seems to be the plan, I would oppose her with some confidence as she wouldn't be fresh.

IT'S TOO LATE TO AIM CLOPF AT ARKLE

CLOPF (34) made a winning debut over fences at Navan. But it didn't look pretty. He clearly needs a good deal more experience before he'll be up to winning in top company over fences. He was inclined to hurdle his fences and this got him in trouble at the sixth last and especially the fifth last which he ploughed through. The blunder put him six lengths behind the leader QUATRE HEURES (34) soon after he'd closed the gap to a couple of lengths and looked set to cruise by him.

Clopf finally stood off and jumped properly over the last two fences and looked set to be a wide margin winner. But then he tired dramatically on Navan's steep uphill run in and had stopped almost to a walk as he crossed the line, where Quatre Heures was gaining hand over fist.

If you go back through the last nineteen results of the Arkle shown on the Racing Post website you'll find that a couple of French imports (Nakir and Champleve) have won the Arkle in this period. But they'd previously won over fixed brush hurdles in France. And it requires a jumping technique basically the same as for chasing to jump a fixed brush hurdle.

The only Arkle winner in the last 20 years that made its chasing debut after the turn of the year and which hadn't previously won over fixed brush hurdles was Well Chief. Seeing how he jumped and tired here I wouldn't want to bet that Clopf is going to emulate him. Longer term though I can see Clopf doing well over fences. I reckon he would have won this by six or eight lengths if he'd had more experience. That would have earned him a rating of 37 or 38 which is really good for a novice chaser.

DON'T OVER RATE PREISTS LEAP

Once in a while there has to be a sub-par winner of a big race. And that's the situation with PREISTS LEAP (35) who won this year's Thyestes Chase if my speed ratings are any guide.

I spent ages trying to find a way to rate his performance higher. At first I thought that perhaps the field had gone off too fast and the pace collapsed. But this didn't happen. They jumped the last three slightly faster than the smart runners did in the Norman's Grove Chase over a mile shorter earlier on the card and only a bit slower than J'Y Vole did ion the novice chase over half a mile shorter. And the clock shows they ran the last two miles or so three seconds slower than J'Y Vole and six slower than Nickname in the Norman's Grove -exactly what you'd expect in a race run at a pace that was neither too slow nor too fast.

My best guess is that the reason Presists Leap was able to win was because so many of his rivals failed to get home on the very heavy ground (nine of the eighteen runners pulled up). I've little doubt that time will show many of them to be superior to Preists Leap and that Preists Leap himself will struggle in future big handicap chases.

ONE COOL COOKIE NEEDS A STRONGER PACE

The Grade 2 Kinloch Brae Chase was a rather strangely run contest. The field went a rather ordinary pace for the first two fences. Then instead of speeding up they actually slowed down to a crawl all the way to the seventh. They picked up the pace gradually from there and were really flying from the eighth but then tired badly from the last.

The clock shows that they reached the eighth fence 6.4 seconds later than they did in the mares' novice chase, clawed back 3.7 seconds of that deficit between there and the last fence but then tired badly to come home from the last 1.3 seconds slower.

What seems to have happened is they went much too slow for the first mile and a quarter, rather too fast for the next mile and then paid the penalty in the last quarter mile. No wonder that the winner HI CLOY (29) recorded a much slower time than the mares managed. Horses, like human athletes, clock the fastest final time when they distribute their energies evenly throughout a race, going roughly the same speed throughout.

One horse that really seemed to dislike the stop-go pace was ONE COOL COOKIE (28). He's a very careful jumper who never does anything quickly. When the field were really sprinting running up to the fifth last he found himself rather crowded and eased back rather than attack the fence. This cost him valuable ground. He later made this up but, like all the other runners, was out on his feet from before the last because they couldn't sustain the sprint in the heavy ground.

My feeling from watching this performance is that One Cool Cookie wants a stronger pace or at least a more even one. This can only normally be guaranteed in a bigger field. So it's interesting to note that if you ignore one three runner race where he finished alone One Cool Cookie's only win in ten starts in fields of ten or less was a head success in novice company against three other finishers. Toss out his first two starts under rules and he's won four times out of five in fields of eleven or more (I'm including his point to point form).

I wish One Cool Cookie didn't prefer going right-handed because a careful jumper like him is made for the big fences at Aintree. Maybe he's worth a try in the Topham Trophy. Certainly I'll be interested in his chances next time he runs in a big field.

Hi Cloy was winning for the first time in almost two years. I wish I could say I understood the horse, but I don't. Maybe the first time blinkers improved him. Perhaps he likes tactical affairs like this. All I know is that I wouldn't be confident of him reproducing this form in a truly run race.

POMME TIEPY WILL STAY THREE MILES

Novice chasing mares don't come much faster than POMME TIEPY (37) who was seriously impressive when strolling home over two and a half miles at Thurles.

The front running Pip 'n Pop (27) set the race up for Pomme Tiepy by making the running at a searching pace. Pomme Tiepy simply sat behind her in a distant second, comfortably closed the gap to lead three out and then sauntered clear.

What was most impressive about Pomme Tiepy is that despite the strong early pace and not being ridden at all she was able to cruise home 1.3 seconds faster up the run-in than Hi Cloy did in the Kinloch Brae Chase. Basically the further they went the better she looked.

Pomme Tiepy clearly stays really well. And this is not surprising when you look at her pedigree. Her dam has produced five other steeplechase winners in France. One of them won over 2m 5f, another over 2m 6f while the best of them placed three times in Graded chases over three miles and ran a good fifth in the Grade 1 Prix Haye Le Jousselin over 3m 3f. This is most unusual for France because 99% of chases over there (barring Cross Country events) are run over 2m 6f or less.

Pomme Tiepy has only lost once in four chase starts so far. This was when she ran a close second to the smart Patte De Velour who is unbeaten in three chases, including a Listed contest.

Judged by her pedigree and the way she ran here, I'd say that Pomme Tiepy will prove best over three miles. Clearly she's effective in a strongly run two and a half mile race. But the quotes about her for the Arkle are fanciful. She'd surely get outpaced by the top novices over the two miles of that race.

SUN ALLIANCE NOT ARKLE THE RIGHT RACE FOR GLENCOVE MARINA

GLENCOVE MARINA (39) was an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Paddy Fitzpatrick Memorial Novice Chase at Leopardstown. And the most significant thing about his win was surely that the further they went the better he looked. With three to jump you couldn't have called him the winner for sure. But from the last he was cruising clear.

As I see it, the Sun Alliance Chase not the Arkle has just got to be the right target for Glencove Marina. He's got the build for three miles and looked to win this strongly run race on stamina more than anything else.

Certainly Glencove Marina moves right up the novice chase rankings on this run in what is the best season I can ever recall for Irish novice chasers on my speed ratings. I'll be betting on Irish wins in all the big novice chases at Cheltenham. And Glencove Marina is shaping up as my pick for the Sun Alliance.

It was a reasonable experiment to see if PERCE ROCK could stay more than two miles. And turning into the straight it looked like he might just do it. But he then started to tire and faded before tiring through exhaustion at the last. I suspect he would have won if the race had been over two miles. He certainly looked to be traveling best to my eye after that distance. So I still see him as a very good prospect for the Arkle.

HOW GOOD IS BARKER?

I was very impressed with BARKER (37) in the Pierse Hurdle. Running up to the last he was almost five lengths behind. But he was moving so strongly he was in front very soon after and powered away up the run in to win with his ears pricked.

Barker has now run four times over trips less than two and a half miles when he's had a run within the last thirty days, and he's won all four times.

Watch the video of Barker's previous win at Fairyhouse and it's hard not to be impressed. He was always cruising and his jockey sat stock still as he cantered away from his rivals up the run in to win with any amount in had. He was one of the easiest winners of the season and beat a pretty decent rival in Vaqueras nine lengths into second (Vaqueras has won since).

I suspect that Barker can run a fair bit faster than he needed to here. I also think he's going to be able to handle faster ground judged by his physique and stride pattern. So I'd be wary of opposing him in the County Hurdle which is his next target.

EBAZIYAN MAY BE BEST IN BIG FIELDS

EBAZIYAN (33) didn't run a fast time when he scored at Punchestown last week. But this was simply because the pace was slow until two jumps from the finish. They came home from there in 48.65 seconds by my estimates. That's 4.75 seconds faster than in the handicap hurdle over the same trip two races later.

Ebaziyan picked off his rivals well in the sprint to the line and won going away. Looking at his record it does seem that he needs plenty of cover in a race and has to be delivered late. So far his five wins have all been achieved with a very late run in very big fields (14 or more runners). In fact, if one short head photo had gone the other way he would have won six of the seven times he's run in fields of 14 or more over 12 furlongs plus. He's lost all six times he's run in smaller fields.

I don't know exactly what the cut off point in field size is for Ebaziyan. But normally it's twelve runners for horses of this type. So until he proves me wrong I'm going to bet that he sees too much daylight in fields of eleven or less.

If I'm right Ebaziyan will probably get hammered in the AIG Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown because it normally attracts a small field. But I'd bet on him proving competitive in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham as that normally features a big field and will surely do so this year.

TRAFFORD LAD STARTS TO GET VERY INTERESTING

TRAFFORD LAD (37) put up a tremendous performance to lose the Grade 2 Slaney Novice Hurdle by only a head to VENALMAR (37).

The early pace in the race was pretty slow which made Trafford Lad rather too keen for his own good. It picked up from five out however. Indeed the field came home from that point in 1 minute 59.9 seconds, the same time that the very smart juvenile Temlett managed over a half mile shorter trip on the same card.

When there is a mad dash to the line over the last mile of a staying hurdle it's awfully hard for a horse to make up any ground. But Trafford Lad pulled back about seven lengths from three furlongs out to the finish and was still full of run when they hit the line.

Trafford Lad won his three previous starts and looks a serious prospect for the Ballymore Properties at Cheltenham to me. He's much more a hurdling type than the winner and clearly has better acceleration. That's what you need to win at Cheltenham.

Venalmar was always going well and did well for such a big horse to win the dash to the line over the final mile. He jinked before the last but this cost him little ground.

Long term Venalmar will surely be a very decent staying chaser. Right now I wouldn't want to bet him on faster ground given his size. I'd also be surprised if he proved competitive at Grade 1 level over hurdles. He's just too one paced for that. However he moves so well in his races I have every hope he'll be up to the best when he switches to fences.

DOES THYNE AGAIN REALLY WANT MORE THAN TWO MILES?

THYNE AGAIN (36) won a very good two mile novice chase in decent time at Naas last Sunday. But I was surprised how much of a struggle it became for him in the closing stages. Entering the straight he was cruising and looked set to score by a wide margin. He ended up having to be driven out to score pretty narrowly.

I know he's a big strong sort that's bred for three miles. But seeing how he tired late here I rather wonder whether Thyne Again really stays much longer than the minimum distance. After all he has now won all three times he's run two miles while his sole success in six longer races was in a slow run contest. In any event my ratings say he's not up to Cheltenham class.

I had though that FREDS BENEFIT (25) would romp the race. But he tired pretty badly. The best explanation I can come up with is that he's best at two miles and doesn't quite get home on a very stiff track like Naas. After all, he'd previously run a clunker at Cheltenham, the only other very stiff track he's run on.

I can't recall ever seeing a novice chaser that was able to jump at the kind of speed Freds Benefit has travelled in his previous chase starts. So it makes sense that he has trouble lasting home on very stiff tracks. I imagine he wasn't set alight here for fear of getting involved in a speed duel with that other very fast front runner DARK ARTIST (26) who also disappointed.

I'm now hoping that Freds Benefit is steered towards the Aintree Festival where his fast, bold jumping will surely make him very hard to beat. If he goes for the Arkle at Cheltenham I'd have to bet on him tiring up the hill.

As for Dark Artist, my best guess is that he's best when allowed to bowl along in front at a fast pace. This enables more use to be made of his fast, efficient jumping which has got many of his rivals in trouble in his other chase starts. I suspect it was only the presence of the even speedier Freds Benefit that caused his rider to go against the idea of setting as fast a pace as he has before.

DOES TEMLETT NEED TO LEAD?

TEMLETT (37) won most impressively at Naas last Sunday after flopping as favourite in the Grade 1 Durkan New Homes juvenile hurdle over Christmas. The best explanation I can come up with for the contrast in his last two runs is the one that seems to be favoured by his connections. Namely that he's best when allowed to bowl along up front.

So far Temlett has won four of the five times he's been able to establish an early lead. His sole loss was perhaps his best effort on the flat when he ran pretty close in a Group 3. He's lost all thirteen times he's been headed early.

I don't think Temlett actually needs to lead. He was simply up there all the way, not actually leading, when running such a big race on his hurdling debut.

At Naas Temlett looked to have a fight on his hands as COPSIANO (32) ranged alongside with three to jump. That rival stuck to him like glue. But approaching the last Temlett was able to kick again and left Copsiano for dead from there to finish the race out strongly.

Sectional times reveal just how much of a surge Temlett made in the second half of the race. He jumped the fourth hurdle 6.7 seconds later than the leader did in the handicap hurdle run on the same card but came home from there 9.9 seconds quicker. Admittedly they went off too fast in the handicap hurdle and the field finished legless. But the amount of time Temlett made up on them was still most impressive. He deserves to be strongly fancied for the Triumph off this run. Long term he'll be interesting when he gets the chance to go longer. He also has the build for chasing which is unusual for a juvenile hurdler.

I'd bet on Copsiano franking this form next time. My experience tells me he would have run a better final time if the winner hadn't made him go faster than he could sustain in the second half of the race. He ended up finishing tired but I'd bet on him seeing his race out better against lesser rivals next time.

J'Y VOLE PROBABLY BEST FRESH

J'Y VOLE (36) jumped pretty much faultlessly to run away with a mares only beginners chase at Cork. In fact she crossed the line 11.6 seconds ahead of her nearest pursuer.

This Willie Mullins inmate has a fair bit of substance to her for a mare, so it's not surprising she's been sent over fences. She'll probably be running in a similar race on the seventeenth of this month after which I'd hope she's rested. After all she's now won all four of her jump starts when she's come into a race off a break of five weeks or more and lost all seven times she hasn't. I'd bet on her being able to take her next race as most horses that are best fresh can take two runs back to back off a three month plus break. Thereafter I'd want to see her rested.

J'Y Vole keeps on banging out the same Listed class speed rating that she earned here. But she's already won a Grade 3 and took this with a bit in hand. So I suspect she'll be earning a rating of 37 or 38 from me before too long. I should also add that I'd agree with Willie Mullins that J'Y Vole will stay three miles seeing how she was full of running at the end of a strongly run two and a half miles on heavy ground here.

WILL DENMAN STAY THE GOLD CUP TRIP?

DENMAN (30) has an even bigger reputation now that he's gone and won the Lexus Chase. But sectional times for the race indicate he may very well have a problem lasting the extra distance in the Gold Cup.

Denman's rivals allowed him to set an absolute crawl of a pace all the way until the third last fence. They reached that obstacle 8.8 seconds slower than they did in the novice chase on the same card. Denman accelerated smartly all the way from there until the last fence, covering the distance 5.2 seconds quicker than the novices. But on the run in he was lucky he'd already gone clear because he tired to take 20.7 seconds from the last to the line - exactly the same time that the tired looking novices managed off a much stronger early pace.

Denman's stride shortened noticeably on the run in. Okay the effort of the three furlong sprint he put in beforehand must have told. But it looked bad enough to prompt me to investigate his pedigree. And what I found endorses the stamina concerns suggested by the sectional times.

Denman's sire Presenting can get horses to go three and a quarter miles. War Of Attrition is the best example. Normally though he gets shorter distance chasers. If they're going to get longer it seems the dam has to provide the necessary stamina. And Denman's dam is lacking on this score. She's produced seven other winning foals, and their 24 wins were all achieved over trips shorter than three miles.

Yes Denman won the Hennessy over the Gold Cup trip. But the Hennessy was run at a very slow early pace (nearly seven seconds slower to halfway than last year's race when you take account of the difference in going). The way Denman ran here raises major doubts about his ability to last three and a quarter miles in a truly run race.

I concede that it's impossible to say what would have happened if the THE LISTENER (29) had gone on and set the sort of pace he normally does in the Lexus. But my gut feel from watching the way Paul Nicholls' charge tired on the run in is that Denman would have been toast from before the last and finished no better than third.

AMBOBO SHOULD IMPROVE

Smart point to pointer TORDUFF KING (37) came off a lengthy lay-off to win his first start under rules in a hot novice chase at Punchestown. He jumped well and was always close up before kicking on three out. He'd been niggled along for some way but despite having to be ridden pretty vigorously from there kept on strongly to eventually clear away from the last when runner up AMBOBO (35) pecked and lost momentum.

I've tried to figure out some sort of pattern to the point to point form of Torduff King. But after spending a lot of time I found that he'd won on genuinely good ground and soft, off a strong pace and a slow one and on all sorts of courses. He won off a lay-off and with several recent runs.

At this stage I can't say why Torduff King ran below form several times between the flags. All I can say is that he won seven of his last eight completed points and was not far off the best.

From this run I gained the strong impression that Torduff King's strong suit is stamina. He kept going well despite being under pressure for a long way in a race run at a decent pace on very soft ground. If he were mine I'd be forgetting about novice events and targeting him at a marathon handicap like the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.

Ambobo jumped just as well as the winner. What was surprising about this is that he's rather small for chasing. It certainly didn't seem to affect him though. He was racing in heavy traffic for much of the race and twice had to swerve on the landing side of fences to avoid rivals that had fallen or dived across him. But he didn't touch a twig, his only real mistake coming at the last which he took too steeply and landed on his nose, losing momentum. He'd looked the winner from a long way out when moving into second but he couldn't get to the winner after that last fence stumble which prompted his jockey to simply allow him to coast home in second with almost no pressure. If he'd beaten him up I dare say Ambobo could have got to within a length or so of the winner

I suspect Ambobo needed this run. He'd previously shown very smart form indeed over fixed brush hurdles and the flimsier variety used in Britain. In fact I gave him Grade 1 or 2 class speed ratings on three separate occasions. My gut feel is that he's still that good. It could be that he now needs cut in the ground to produce his best but there's not yet enough evidence on this count. All I can say is that he's surely going to win next time and prove competitive in the top novice chases.

SNOWY MORNING HAS SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA

SNOWY MORNING (15) earned a speed rating of 38 from me when winning a strongly run hurdle at Fairyhouse a few weeks back. Now he's shown that he can also win off a very slow gallop indeed when following up that success at Punchestown.

Snowy Morning set a very modest gallop to the seventh flight, reaching that point 11.3 seconds later than in the following handicap hurdle over the same trip. He wound the pace up gradually from there but wasn't really going full tilt until jumping two from the finish. He sprinted home from there a full two seconds faster than Silent Creek managed off a stronger pace in the handicap hurdle.

It looked a bit messy because it developed into a sprint. But Snowy Morning impressed me for several reasons.

Firstly, looking ahead to the Grand National, I felt it was significant that Snowy Morning was happy to relax at such a slow early pace when a lot of horses would have been pulling like a train. This will stand him in good stead in the early stages at Aintree.

Secondly I liked the way that he jumped so safely apart from one hurdle which he basically went through because he was travelling too slow.

Thirdly it was impressive that such a big strong horse was able to accelerate so smartly from two out. If he manages to jump round at Aintree and is within shouting distance at the last there aren't many horses that would be able to withstand his turn of foot.

I know the Grand National stats are all against horses that ran in novice chases the season before. But this is actually Snowy Morning's fourth season over fences when you include his point to point form. If it comes up soft at Aintree I'd rather fancy his chances. He lost his hurdles debut but has won eight of his other nine most recent completed starts on soft or heavy. He has the size and scope to jump the National fences, and I suspect he has the stamina for the race as well.

SILENT CREEK IMPROVES

When a lightly raced horse suddenly jumps up and runs a huge race it's usually not a smart idea to read too much into its previous form. This I think will prove to be the case with SILENT CREEK (37) who ran away with a Punchestown handicap hurdle in pattern class time.

Silent Creek won this race full of running and could be anything. I wouldn't like to be dogmatic about what his preferences are at this stage. All I can say is that he won this race off a rating of 104 and earned a speed rating which equates to a mark of around 140. That means he must have every chance of winning another handicap soon.

SWEET KILN IS STILL IMPROVING

I noted last season that SWEET KILN (41) had improved with every one of her starts following a lengthy time off with split problems. Now I have to report that though her improvement has slowed she's still earning progressively bigger speed ratings from me. Her latest win in the Grade 2 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown was her best effort yet.

In this race Sweet Kiln showed that she doesn't have to make the running or have bottomless ground. She came through from the back and wore down the smart runner up SONNYANJOE (40) before kicking clear.

Sweet Kiln's connections are now talking about the big new race for mares at the Cheltenham Festival. This run suggests that they ought to give consideration to the World Hurdle as well.

Sonnyanjoe, like Sweet Kiln, has also been running with amazing consistency since his comeback from injury. I guess this run has totally blown his handicap mark. But that doesn't matter. He's good enough to win a big conditions hurdle over a long trip and will surely do so before the season is out. He looked tired when the mare headed him but showed tremendous stamina to rally in the closing stages.

PEDROBOB GETS INTERESTING FOR ARKLE

PEDROBOB (38) has won eight of his sixteen starts to date and there have been good excuses for several of his losses. His latest win came in a Leopardstown novice chase which he won in smart time after WINS NOW (37?) came down alongside him at the last.

I've little doubt that Pedrobob would have won if Wins Now has stood up because he was really moving on the run from the last and finished full of running. The way that he worked his way though the field was impressive to watch and bodes well for his chances off adding to last season's County Hurdle win when he returns to Cheltenham for the Arkle in March.

Meanwhile don't be too surprised if Pedrobob loses the Baileys Arkle at Leopardstown on his next outing. This is a vintage season for novice chasers in Ireland and I can easily see Fred's Benefit or Perce Rock getting the better of Pedrobob in the Baileys Arkle if the race cuts up to a small field. In a bigger field at Cheltenham though I suspect Pedrobob would have a great chance of reversing any defeat they may inflict on him as he's clearly so good at coming from off a strong pace.

Wins Now is clearly very useful. But it's worth bearing in mind that he's now put himself out of contention by blundering in the closing stages three times in a row. This being so I suspect he needs a good deal more experience of chasing before he'll be able to win a big race.

NOTRE PERE STAYS ALL DAY

SANTA'S SON went off at too fast in the Grade 1 night Frank Ganly Walters Novice Chase at Leopardstown. For comaprison he reached the eighth fence, just before halfway, 1.9 seconds sooner than they did in the same race the previous year and just a second later than The Listener did when he went off at that suicidal gallop which saw him stop and get caught by Beef Or Salmon in last season's Hennessy. This being so I'd expect Santa's Son to bounce back to form soon after this run where he put in a terrific round of jumping accurately at speed for a novice.

The fierce set the race up for NOTRE PERE (37) whose three previous wins had all come on heavy ground and who 'needs a slog' according to trainer Jim Dreaper. He and ABBERBRANEY (37) came out of the pack to fight out a terrific finish all the way up the run in.

I doubt that Notre Pere will ever run this well again over three miles or less on anything except heavy ground. He does look an interesting proposition long term for marathon chases though.

This was the first time Abberbraney had gone three miles and my gut feel is that in a normally run contest he would have won clearly. He's got a bit more pace than the winner so I'd say he's likely to end up winning more races. Though I should add that neither he nor Notre Pere are truly Grade 1 horses if the clock is any guide. Grade 3 is more their level.