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ACE LIVES UP TO HIS NAME
Aiden O'Brien finally has a top class three year old colt this
season. His name is ACE (40) and he bolted up by six lengths over a mile at
Leopardstown on Saturday.
In the context of the three year olds, Ace rates as a Group 1
performer on my ratings. He's just a couple of points behind most of the best of
his generation. But he has four or five points to find with the champion Bago
and the older leading horse Doyen. Still, all he could do was win easily by a
big margin, maintain his unbeaten record and clock a fast time.
It's most unusual for Aiden O'Brien to commit to a big race
target for one of his horses. Normally he'll hedge his bets and mention several
'possible' targets. So it's probably significant that he immediately nominated
next month's Desmond stakes at the Curragh as Ace's next race. It looks like he
has a very clear idea of the campaign he wants Ace to follow for the rest of
this year. And it would appear that the intended campaign is going to be over a
mile, despite Ace's rather stout pedigree and the entries he holds in future
races over ten and twelve furlongs. I'm thinking maybe he has in mind the
Shadwell Mile at Keeneland in October, the US race he won with Landseer a couple
of years ago.
LATINO MAGIC (40) won in fast time at the same meeting. Give
him fast ground and he always seems to run his race over 8-10f. He's a tad
better than the average Group 3 winner so much have a chance of following up in
the Royal Whip stakes providing he gets his ground.
SOLSKJAER (40) apparently has some recurring injury which is
why he's only raced four times to date. But he showed how useful he is by
running Latino Magic to a short head here. Horses as fast as he is usually win
in Group company, and I'd expect Solskjaer to do that sometime soon.
I gave DESERT TIGRESS (34) a big write up after she'd run
second in fast time a few weeks ago. Unfortunately, like most dirt-bred horses,
it looks like she failed to handle yielding ground next time out. Back on a
faster surface at Cork she lowered the five furlong track record when beating a
useful rival.
I think most pundits will be betting that it was the step up
to six furlongs which caused desert Tigress to run below form last time. Looking
at her pedigree though, I'm convinced she'll stay a mile and that it was simply
the ground that was the problem. I note with interest that she's entered in the
six furlong Lowther stakes at York. There are some smart fillies in that race
but she'd be joint fastest at this stage on my ratings.
Runner-up FONTANALLY SPRINGS (32) was third to Group-placed
Kay Two and Desert Tigress after a slow start on her racecourse debut, and
showed improved form here on her second appearance. A maiden ought to be pretty
much a slam dunk for her next time out.
RIO DE JANEIRO (34) had lost a race in the stewards' room last
time after wandering all over the track. He veered sharply at Fairyhouse but
managed to avoid impeding the runner up to break his maiden in good time. He now
has a reputation as a horse to avoid. But this was only his third lifetime start
and my research show that horses come off a true line less and less as they gain
experience. This means Rio de Janeiro has the potential to improve to pattern
class I'd say.
TOUBADOUR IS SMART
TROUBADOUR (38) bolted up by six lengths on his belated
seasonal debut at Naas. All his run really tells us is that he's trained on and
is Group class. He won easily and might well be able to run a fair bit quicker.
OUIJA B0ARD YET AGAIN
OUIJA BOARD (41) banged out yet another huge speed figure for
a three year old filly (her third in a row) to take the Irish Oaks. She's
clearly one of the best of her age and sex to race in the past few years. But I
worry that she may now need a rest. She's described as a 'big, weak filly' by
her trainer, Ed Dunlop, and I note with interest that all her wins so far have
conformed to what I call 'the rest pattern'. Rest pattern horses go well on
their first two runs following a break of three months or more but then need a
rest of at least five weeks to run well again. A lot of fillies, especially
immature ones like Ouija Board, run to this pattern. And horses that always seem
to run a really fast time frequently run the same way. In this regard it's worth
remembering that Dunlop said Ouija Board lost weight and went in her coat
following her win in the Oaks at Epsom. She had a six week break after that
race, and I'd like to see her have the same sort of rest now. However it looks
like she's going to be run right back at the upcoming York meeting, so I'd be
inclined to oppose her there, especially if she tackles the seemingly
unstoppable Bago in the Juddmonte International.
PUNCTILLIOUS (40) ran a big race to get so close to Ouija
Board and now begins to look an interesting contender for the Yorkshire Oaks.
That race, or perhaps the St Leger, would seem to represent her best shot of
attaining the connections stated goal of winning a Group 1 this year. If she was
targeted at the Prix Vermeille she'd be forced to take on Latice who is every
bit as fast as Ouija Board according to my speed ratings.
HAZARISTA (40) stayed on well to finish only a bit behind
Punctillious and also looks to have a decent shot in the Yorkshire Oaks. She's
lightly raced and could be very good indeed.
Trade Fair (38) won a Group 3 on the same card. But I wouldn't
go running away with the idea that he's now going to justify the hype that's
surrounded him for most of his career. This was only a bog standard Group 3 time
and there are many better horses around at his specialist trip of seven furlongs
(e.g. Monsieur Bond who earned a speed rating of 44 from me over the distance
earlier this year).
TROPICAL LADY (38) continued her winning run with yet another
decent time to take a Listed race for fillies on the Irish Oaks card. She may
well be capable of running a bit faster yet.
NOAHS ARK (37) ran a good time for a three year old filly to
take second and was unlucky to come up against what is probably a Group 2 horse
in a mere Listed contest. She ought to be taking a race of this sort sometime
soon.
BAROLO (37) was a rare Irish runner for Peter Harris when he
made all the running to win a 1m 6f Listed race in decent time.
Reading Barolo's form, it seems to me he suffers from what I
call 'the small field syndrome'. Such horses tend to encounter traffic problems
when they race in fields of a dozen runners or more but run their best in
smaller fields. Some of them will also run to their best at Newmarket,
regardless of the field size, because the track is the widest in Britain and
dead straight for the last mile or ten furlongs (depending on whether it's the
Rowley Mile or July course). This makes it that much easier to avoid traffic
since there's plenty of space and time to find a run.
Barolo's form is somewhat obscured by the fact that he
actually did win a 12 runner race two runs back. But if you look up the result
of that contest you'll find that one of the runners slipped up soon after the
start, so ti was effectively an 11 runner affair. Count it as such and you'll
find that Barolo has now won five of the six times he's run in small fields or
at Newmarket. The sole loss came in July last year. And there was clearly
something wrong with him that day as he missed the rest of the season.
Due to his liking for small fields like he met here, it's
tough to tell just how fast Barolo is from my speed ratings, since small fields
tend to produce slow run races. But he reads like a solid Group racer to me, and
I note with interest that he's just been entered in the Group 2 Geoffrey Freer
stakes. That race normally attracts a small field, so I would be careful before
opposing him there.
Over jumps NIGHT BUSKER (36) extended his unbeaten record at
trips of two and a half miles or more to four out of four when winning the
valuable Midlands National Handicap Chase at Kilbeggan. It's kind of confusing
having identical race titles like the Midlands National and Hennessy Gold Cup in
Britain and Ireland. But in any event Night Busker looks pretty useful and can
probably go a bit faster.
ACCORDION ETOILE IS A SERIOUSLY GOOD HURDLER
The only big speed figures I've awarded in Ireland over the
past few days were over jumps. But they were very interesting, especially the
first one. This was the chunky rating earned by ACCORDION ETOILE (40) when he
disposed of a useful field in a valuable conditions hurdle at Tipperary.
Accordion Etoile won a bumper race on soft ground, but the
jury is still out on whether he is at his best on anything but fast ground. He's
now won all four times he's raced on good or faster ground but scored just that
one win in five tries on yielding or softer. His long term objective is the
Champion Hurdle, and on this showing you can't discount his chances in that
race, seeing that it's always run on fast ground nowadays, thanks to the
super-effective drainage system at Cheltenham.
Runner-up GRIMES (37) is almost unstoppable on good or faster
ground from April to October but couldn't get closer than six lengths here. He
remains a smart horse and is definitely worth close consideration next time he
runs on fast ground during his favoured time of year.
Over fences, TALKING CENTS (37) jumped well and ran a smart
time for a summer novice to win on his chasing debut at Fairyhouse. I imagine
they have something in mind for him at the Galway festival. He's certainly
capable of taking much better races than this.
DESERT TIGRESS MAY BE ONE OF THE TOP JUVNEILE FILLIES
The most significant race of the week in Ireland was probably
a conditions event at Tipperary. This was won by KAY TWO (32) who ran a decent
time to win. He's improving with racing, and with so few good two year olds
around, might just be able to sneak a pattern race win if he's brought back
quickly before the better youngsters start to emerge.
Runner-up DESERT TIGRESS (32) is probably the horse to take
out of the race though. She had run green on her debut and did so again but only
went under by a short head. She's got a fantastic pedigree which indicates
she'll be wanting a mile. So it was a terrific effort by her to run so well over
just five furlongs. I'd anticipate major improvement from her at longer
distances and would not be surprised to see her develop into one of the top
juvenile fillies over seven furlongs and a mile. Seeing that she's totally bred
for dirt it would be interesting to see what she could do if she makes the
anticipated progress and is tried on dirt in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
later this year.
Turning to the older horses, CACHE CREEK (37) had run well to
finish six lengths fourth to Medicinal (who ran a Group 1 time according to my
estimates) at Leopardstown last month. And a replication of that effort was
enough to win her a decent handicap at Roscommon. She seems to be benefiting
from the boost in form that usually comes from being a mare in foal. The problem
is that she needs about a month in between her runs according to her trainer. So
her final big target will probably be McDonagh handicap at the Galway Festival.
She must have a decent chance there.
Runner-up HIGH REEF (36) looks extraordinarily well
handicapped on an official mark of just 67. She was sold for a remarkably low
price at the Deauville horses in training sales last year considering her form.
She won a couple of provincial handicaps then stepped up in grade to run second
in a class A handicap in which she had a Listed winner back in third. Shortly
after this High Reef got to within three and a half lengths of the winner in a
Group 3.
Put over hurdles by her new trainer, Charlie Swan, High Reef
did well, winning first time then running second to the very smart Direct
Bearing before losing by just half a length to Grade 1 placed Always on her only
other hurdles start.
Switched back to the flat, High Reef next ran in a valuable
Premier handicap at the Curragh. Here she ran three quarters of a lengths second
in a race I rated as being run in Group 3 class time to the very smart Cloone
River. She had some other very useful performers behind her that day.
I strongly suspect that High Reef needed her seasonal debut.
Nonetheless she ran promisingly, gaining ground late into what must have been an
accelerating pace, given the slow final time (which indicates a slow early
pace). Seeing that she is eligible for much lower grade races than this I'd
anticipate a win from her soon.
OCEAN BOUNTY (35) did well for a three year old to chase this
pair home. He's improved since stepping up to race at trips beyond a mile and
looks likely to win again soon, especially if he can be found a race against his
own age group.
Over jumps DANAEVE (36) maintained his unbeaten record at
Tipperary when winning for the third time at the course. Clearly he's pretty
useful at this tight course. He seems quite effective at other tight tracks too,
but has actually lost the last 16 times he's run anywhere else. If he returns to
Tipperary soon I'd be interested in his chances of making it four out of four at
the course.
CRESTED POCHARD (36) showed serious improvement to romp a
Bellewstown maiden by six lengths. This half brother to Shooting Light clearly
has abundant stamina and looks an interesting prospect for a big handicap in the
near future.
As predicted in this column last week, TROPICAL LADY (38) won
the Group 3 Brownstown stakes, beating the smart three year old Majestic Desert.
But for running green on her debut and losing in a photo, Tropical Lady would
now have won six of the seven times she's raced on good or faster ground. It was
officially good to yielding here but my going allowances indicated it was just
good. That awful race on soft ground in her record makes me concerned about her
ability to act on soft ground. Her pedigree might indicate that her trainer is
wrong to suppose she'll stay ten furlongs. But her trainer is Jim Bolger, and he
seems to have the same knack of training horses to outstay their pedigrees as
Mark Johnston. Bolger thinks there is more improvement to come from Tropical
Lady and it's hard to argue against that when you're talking about a filly
that's won four out of four this season.
MAJESTIC DESERT (38) almost certainly 'bounced' off an
incredibly fast second place finish to Attraction at Royal Ascot just 15 days
earlier. All her wins have come after a lay-off, and I would be following her if
she's given a break now.
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