DON'T OPPOSE EVENING TIME IN MUD

EVENING TIME (40) won the Sweet Mimosa Stakes at Leopardstown in a time that makes her the equal of any three year old filly in training. She's now blown home by big margins all three times she's run six furlongs. I'd be wary of opposing her at the distance as long as trainer Kevin Predergast keeps her to the soft ground he says she needs. Evening Time's pedigree back up Prendergast's assertion about her going preferences as the only other winning foal her dam has produced was the mudlark Lake Andre.

I don't know whether Evening Time can stay longer than six furlongs. Her pedigree and form suggest probably not. But she's so good I'd be wary of opposing her in any race run on soft or heavy ground.

BIG RUN BY GALISTIC

These days we're all conditioned to the idea that the vast majority of sires are influences for ten furlongs or less and that it takes a stoutly bred dam for a horse to get longer in top company. So it's not surprising that we keep getting taken by surprise when the offspring of Galileo show massive improvement at longer trips even when they're out of relatively speedy dams.

GALISTIC (38) showed once again that we need to think differently about the progeny of Galileo who is rapidly developing into the top sire of staying horses in recent years.

Galistic showed major improvement when stepped up to 1m 6f to take a good Listed race at Leopardstown from the smart REFORM ACT (37).

On this run Galistic should be capable of winning a Group 3 race like the Park Hill Stakes. So I rather wonder whether her connections will really go through with their plans to switch her to hurdles. In any event, whether it's over timber or on the flat, Galistic looks worth following at longer distances.

Reform Act is very consistent and, despite not winning, has actually run fast enough to win a fillies' Group 3 on three of her four runs this term (the exception was a race over ten furlongs, a trip that's a bit short for her). She's unlucky to have peaked in a season when there are so many good mile and a half plus fillies around in Ireland. For this reason I think that she'd have a better chance of winning if shipped over to Britain.

SURELY PEEPING FAWN CAN'T DO IT AGAIN AT GOODWOOD

I was totally confident that PEEPING FAWN (40) would 'bounce' in the Irish Oaks. That is, she would regress after running two seriously fast times back to back in the Epsom Oaks and Pretty Polly Stakes. Instead she went and run just as fast as she had before and turned the tables on her Epsom conqueror LIGHT SHIFT (38).

I think Henry Cecil is right to say that Light Shift was inconvenienced by the heavy ground more than Peeping Fawn. Horses with a turn of foot as good as hers are normally better on a faster surface.

If this pair meet again in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood I'd bet on Light Shift beating Peeping Fawn. Firstly I just can't believe Peeping Fawn will hold her form at Goodwood. It will be her ninth run of the year following three of the fastest successive runs I've ever seen a 3YO filly put up. Secondly I reckon Light Shift is an inherently better horse and will prove it on faster ground at Goodwood.

EXCELERATE HAS IMPROVED

A year ago EXCELERATE (37) lost a claiming race. Now he's gone and run a pattern class time when running away with a handicap at Cork. On his previous start he'd finished third in a huge field in a 60,000 Euro handicap at the Curragh. Clearly he's improved.

I don't know just why Excelerate had improved this season. But I'm reluctant to conclude it's simply because he's been racing on softer ground for the first time. I suspect that is just happenstance and that he's going to win again soon regardless of the going.

G'DAY MOLLY SHOULD COMPLETE HAT TRICK AT KILLARNEY

G'DAY MOLLY (36) has done nothing but improve in her eight starts to date and won for the second time in a row when clocking a fast time at Cork. She's obviously a decent hurdler and much quicker than anything she's likely to face in the 74-95 handicap she's entered for at Killarney on Tuesday. She ought to complete the hat trick if she runs there, or anywhere else if it comes to that.

RATHKENNY IMPROVES OVER LONGER TRIP

RATHKENNY (36) has been around for a long time. But it wasn't until run number seventy two that he had the chance to run two and a half miles. Clearly he appreciated the step up in trip because he ran second to win machine HEGRID (36) in a time that indicates he is very well handicapped.

I'd be surprised if Rathkenny doesn't win a two and a half mile hurdle in the near future. The winner, Hegrid, is still eligible for races below his true class according to my ratings. However he can get into really low grade races on the flat so I can understand why his connections are keen to go that route rather than keep him over timber at present. Clearly if he can run anywhere near this sort of level on the flat he should be winning yet again soon.

SOLDIER OF FORTUNE IS NOT THAT GOOD

When only a single race on an entire card is run in decent time and the winner scores by a big margin it's awfully hard to make reliable speed ratings. However, if I use the best previous ratings for the first and second in the Irish Derby I come up with potential ratings of 39, 39 and 39 for the winner SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (39). 39 is therefore the number he gets from me and it's not really very good at all.

Until I'm proven wrong I'm going to bet that Soldier Of Fortune's chief opponents failed to run up to form for one reason or another and that the horse is nowhere near as good as he looked.

PEEPING FAWN SHOULD SKIP THE IRISH OAKS

PEEPING FAWN (40) won the Pretty Polly Stakes in very smart time, becoming the only three year old to win the race since it was upgraded to a Group 1. But I have trouble with the idea of her winning the Irish Oaks in a couple of weeks.

Peeping Fawn has now run two fast times back to back in big middle-distance races at Group 1 level. Invariably when a three year old filly does this they 'bounce', i.e. regress in form due to the effects of hard racing, unless they're rested for at least five weeks.

Jockey Kieran Fallon told reporters that Peeping Fawn had just had a tough race on testing ground. So, seeing that the Irish Oaks would be Peeping Fawn's eighth race of the season, I rather doubt that Coolmore will be running her in two weeks time - especially when they have an able substitute in All My Loving.

Runner-up SPECIOSA (38) bounced back to her best. And it's now looking rather likely that her connections should not have cut her back to seven furlongs and a mile after her win in last year's 1000 Guineas.

Okay Speciosa didn't quite a mile and a half when she ran fourth in the Oaks. But if you look at her other form when she's run on a really stiff track or on genuinely yielding or softer ground or beyond a mile she's won three times out of five. Her sole loss besides this one was a second place finish to Manduro on her seasonal debut this year in what looks like the hottest Earl Of Sefton Stakes we've had in a very long time. Manduro went on to win Group 1 races on his next two starts. And five of the horses that followed Speciosa home went on to earn Group 1 or Group 2 class speed ratings from me.

Hopefully Speciosa will not take up her engagement in the Falmouth Stakes over a mile unless the ground stays soft. She surely needs to be kept to a mile and a quarter from now on. If she were mine I'd be aiming her at either the Premio Lydia Tesio in Italy or the E P Taylor Stakes in Canada. Both those races usually feature cut in the ground and are over ten furlongs. They look to offer Speciosa her best chance of further Group 1 success.

Johnny Murtagh said that third-placed WEST WIND (37) didn't get home in the soft ground. That seems right given her pedigree plus the fact that horses with a serious turn of foot like West Wind invariably want fast ground. Later on, when the ground rides faster, I would expect this very promising filly to improve markedly on this show.

ALLESANDRO MUST WIN SOON

The Apprentice Derby used to be farmed by the big stables. But clearly this was spotted by whoever frames the Conditions race as it was altered from an open event into one restricted to horses rated 80 or lower last year. Sure enough O'Brien, Bolger, Weld and Oxx failed to win it 2006 and missed out again this year. However the Jim Bolger runner ALLESANDRO (36) went awfully close and pulled eight lengths clear of the rest of a big field when going under narrowly to IMPERIAL ROSE (36).

Imperial Rose is clearly back to the form that saw her go close in a couple of Listed races a few seasons back. This would have been her third win in a row if she hadn't come up against the useful Safari Run over hurdles at Down Royal. She looks set to win again soon whether she sticks to the flat or reverts to timber.

Allesandro looks a certain winner in the near future. This lightly raced gelding was beaten three parts of a length by The Chip Chopman last time and that one went on to win three in a row. Now he's gone under narrowly to another smart opponent. He can't keep on bumping into such good horses if she sticks to ordinary handicap company.