RIP VAN WINKLE IS THE CHAMPION TWO YEAR OLD

I know it's a bit early in the season to be calling a horse the Champion two year old. But the performance RIP VAN WINKLE (40) put up to win the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown merits that accolade in my opinion. The big colt quickened up in impressive style to outrun the brilliant filly CUIS GHAIRE (39) in the closing stages with the smart VILASOL (37) nearly three lengths back in third.

I think that the first and second may very well go on to win the 2000 and 1000 Guineas next year.

The early pace was slow. So I'm basing my rating on the very fast time Rip Van Winkle clocked from three furlongs out. When I compare this with the times clocked in the other two fast races on the card (a six furlong sprint and a ten furlong Group 3) the formula I use to adjust the ratings of slow run juvenile races points to a rating of exactly 40 in both cases. This gives me confidence that I've got the rating right, as does the fact that Vilasol has earned a rating of 37 from me before.

Only a couple of times in the last dozen years have I given a two year old a bigger rating than Rip Van Winkle earned from me here. Both times this was in the Dewhurst Stakes where Xaar in 1997 and Teofilo both earned a rating of 41 from me.

Initially I had thought that Rip Van Winkle was more of a Derby prospect. But he showed serious pace here to run down a really high class rival.

Cuis Ghaire did absolutely nothing wrong. And it's tempting to conclude that her obvious stamina would have given her a better shot in a more strongly run race. Certainly she should be winning a Group 1 race before long and looks a smart bet to take the Prix Marcel Boussac later on this season. More immediately she'll be the one to beat if she lines up for the Moyglare Stud Stakes.

Vilasol runs one big race after another and will surely find a Group race sometime this season.

MASTERCRAFTSMAN NOT AS GOOD AS RIP VAN WINKLE

MASTERCRAFTSMAN (35) certainly looked good as he strode away in the closing stages of the Phoenix Stakes. But even the most generous interpretation of the time he ran suggests that he's not on the same level as his stablemate Rip Van Winkle who won earlier in the week.

The filly Elletelle ran more than a second quicker over the six furlongs later on the same card off a stronger early pace. So, good as he looked, I can't rate Mastercraftsman any better than just a solid Group class horse.

Mastercraftsman is certainly a good looking, strong, tall mature sort who should have no problem getting a mile or more. Perhaps he'll improve at longer trips. But you won't find me betting him to win another Group 1 on this showing.

OUI SAY OUI SAYS A BIG YES TO GOFFS MILLION CHALLENGE

You can never be sure of anything when a huge number of two year olds stampede for a million Euro prize. But OUI SAY OUI (37) undoubtedly ran fast enough to give her a favourite's chance of winning the Goffs Fillies Million in September when scoring on her debut at the Curragh.

It was a competitive race and the soft ground blunted any acceleration she may have, so it was hard for Oui Say Oui to look impressive. But after being prominent throughout, the Tommy Stak trained filly kicked clear when asked and kept on strongly all the way to the line.

Oui Say Oui is a narrow, light-framed sort. But she's well put together and has a bit of class about her. Her build and pedigree say that she'll be better suited to seven furlongs than the six she tackled here and should stay a mile.

My feeling from watching her run here is that Oui Say Oui will have no trouble reproducing this form on faster ground. My one concern is that she looked really fit here and is probably one of those light-framed, nervous sort of fillies that get themselves fit at home. Given her physique I'd bet that she'll prove best on her first two runs each season and will need a break of at least five weeks thereafter in order to run well again. This being so I hope her connections stick to their plan of going for the Debutante Stakes then the Goffs Fillies Million. If they get tempted to shoot for the Moyglare Stud Stakes as well this will reduce the spacing between her races to the point where I'd want to oppose her.

CAREFREE SMILE (34) is a bigger, stronger, more substantial filly than the winner and looks built for longer distances. She had a bit of trouble getting a run but stayed on nicely to take second place once she got clear.

The strong pace and soft ground pulled Carefree Smile into this race. But I doubt that she'd be effective in sprints in normal conditions. She's a middle distance filly in the making and looks more a horse for next year rather than this.

JUMBAJUKIBA DOES IT AGAIN

I'm running out of things to say about JUMBAJUKIBA (40). This admirably consistent horse is really hard to peg back when he hits a small field. He was winning for the fifth time in six starts in single figure fields at a mile or less when making almost all the running to take the Group 3 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh.

The key to Al Qasi seems to be that is a stuffy horse that needs a recent run.

So far Al Qasi has contested seven sprints when he's had a run within the preceding thirty days. He won five of the seven times. One of the losses came early in his career when he was green and pulled too hard before going under by a short head. The other was in the Challenge Stakes where the winner cut across him and stopped him in his tracks. Watch the video of that race and it's hard not to believe that Al Qasi wouldn't have won instead of finishing second but for the interference. Why the winner wasn't disqualified is beyond me.

Al Qasi has a reputation for liking the soft ground he ran on here. But, after initially going along with that idea, I have to say I now I don't see any strong indication of that myself. He's won and run fast on a fast surface.

Having seen the way he stayed on so strongly here I now think that Al Qasi's reputation for being a soft ground specialist stems from the fact that most of his starts have been over six furlongs. Over that short a trip he's needed soft ground to pull him into the race. Over seven furlongs and a mile it's surely not necessary.

Al Qasi has earned a bunch of big speed ratings from me and could just about take a weak Group 1. When he next comes into a race off a recent run I'd be wary of opposing him over seven furlongs or a mile.

GEORGEBERNARDSHAW (38) was unlucky to come up against such smart rivals in a Group 3 race. This great big three year old was flat to the boards from a long way out but kept on to gradually make inroads on the winner's lead in the last furlong. He would have won a normal Group 3 on this run. If he had his record would now show three wins from three tries on soft or heavy ground at six furlongs or more. Right now it looks like he's not effective on a fast surface.

CAPTAIN CHAOS (38) is a much smaller horse than Georgebernardshaw but also seems to prefer cut in the ground. He finished best of all and looked like he'd appreciate a return to a mile. He keeps on earning bigger and bigger speed ratings from me with every start and looks on the verge of winning something decent in the near future.

PROFOUND BEAUTY IS A GROUP 1 FILLY

There have been 87 races run over a mile and three quarters in the last thirteen seasons. And the fastest by a margin of 1.2 seconds was the Listed Challenge Stakes won by PROFOUND BEAUTY (39) last week. I suspect she broke the course record but sadly course records are not kept in Ireland. Indeed the lack of respect Irish racing officials have for the times of races could be seen on the same day at Killarney where two races had no official time returned. For those interested they were run in 5m 13.4 and 3m 08.6 respectively. I found this by clocking the videos off the attheraces.com website. Why couldn't someone at the track have timed the videos of the races to give us this information?

I could rant on this subject for some time, so let me instead get back to Profound Beauty who put up a seriously good performance.

Held up off the searching early pace, Profound Beauty moved up approaching the home turn, challenged with a furlong and a half to go and then pulled away impressively and quickly in the closing stages in the way only a high class horse can do off a strong pace.

This run would be good enough to win quite a few Group 1 races for fillies and marks out Profound Beauty as one of the best of her sex in Europe.

Profounf Beauty disappointed when only a fair fifth in last year's Irish Oaks. But since stepping back up to a mile and a half plus she has won two times out of three with her only loss being a good second place finish to Ice Queen who so nearly won the Irish Oaks soon after.

I can understand trainer Dermot Weld's enthusiasm for aiming Profound Beauty at the Melbourne Cup after this run. That race is almost always a slow run affair so it won't be such a test of stamina as this contest. But Profound Beauty showed she could produce the kind of finishing kick required to win the big Australian race when coming off a relatively slow pace to score at the Curragh on Irish Derby day.

I suspect Profound Beauty would need cut in the ground to reproduce this level of form over a shorter distance, though there's really not enough evidence to say that for sure. It's rather a shame there are so few pattern races for fillies at longer trips as this forces Profound Beauty to take on males or race over trips on the short side for her. Even so she's so smart I reckon she's got to be worth following.

Runner up GALISTIC (37) looked like repeating last year's win in this race when closing up rapidly, moving easily just before the entrance to the straight. She continued her progress to dispute the lead before the furlong pole but simply couldn't go with the winner from there.

Galistic exhibits a very strong seasonal pattern to her form. Before this run she had won four of her five completed starts in July and August and blanked in all her other seventeen outings.

IS ZULU CHIEF REALLY THAT GOOD?

When a horse with a fancy pedigree that's trained by Aidan O'Brien wins a maiden race by twenty lengths it's easy to believe that it's going to prove Group 1 class. But right now I'm a bit skeptical about ZULU CHIEF (30) living up to all the hype after his runaway win at Naas.

The thing is Show Blessed clocked exactly the same time as the decent older handicapper Show Blessed in the next race. And he came home up the straight just a tenth of a second faster despite the fact that Show Blessed was eased in the closing stages while he was ridden out.

I gave Show Blessed a rating of 36 for his previous start. So even if we say he won his race easily and Zulu Chief matched his performance by coming home much quicker than the winner of the other ten furlong race on the card that still leaves the Coolmore colt a length per mile shy of Listed class.

I concede that the way the big colt strolled clear from the two furlong marker was impressive. However the clock says we shouldn't go overboard about Zulu Chief. He could be Group 1 class but he didn't show that level of ability here.

GAGNOA WAS THE BEST HORSE IN IRISH OAKS

When she put her head up in the air in the closing stages of the Prix de Diane I figured that GAGNOA (37) was feeling the fast ground. Her jockey, Johnny Murtagh, said after the race that he felt she'd improve with more cut in the ground.

But now Gagnoa has gone and done exactly the same thing in the Irish Oaks on ground that was on the yielding side of good.

Approaching the final furlong Gagnoa looked like she was going to pick up the first and second MOONSTONE (38) and ICE QUEEN (38). But then her head came up and she ducked to the inside just as the winner was forced out out slightly by the runner up. Gagnoa simply wasn't exerting herself fully in the last hundred yards or so, just as was the case in the Prix de Diane.

I do not believe Gagnoa is a quitter. I suspect she simply needs covering up even more than she has been till now. She's clearly one of those horses that eases herself up once she sees too much daylight.

Gagnoa had run a bit quicker than Moonstone and Ice Queen when second to Zarkava in France, and I'm rather sure she'll prove better than them in the long term.

Moonstone became only the second horse in over 30 years to win the Irish Oaks after finishing second in the Oaks at Epsom. Peeping Fawn pulled off the feat last year but the thirteen other attempts by Epsom runners up since 1974 had all ended in failure.

This was a very well executed win by the Coolmore team who tossed in yet another battalion of front runners to ensure the race was enough of a stamina test for Moonstone. I had thought she'd get done for finishing kick, but her pacemakers ensured her stamina told.

I don't rate Moonstone good enough to win another Group 1, though I guess there are possibilities about the St Leger. At shorter trips there are a whole bunch of fillies I'd happily bet to beat her.

Ice Queen very nearly did it. She sat in third behind her two pacemaking stablemates and looked to have the race on when she kicked on with quarter of a mile to go. She did her usual trick of flashing her tail under pressure but still kept on strongly though edging out slightly. If the photo had gone the other way this would have made three wins out of four for her on grass beyond a mile when she hasn't been used to make the pace for a stablemate. My gut feel is that there's a bit of improvement in her, seeing that she's still showing signs of greenness. I wouldn't discount her chances in the Nassau Stakes next time.

MAD ABOUT YOU (34) was cruising for a long way and looked the most likely winner turning in. But she emptied after two furlongs out and clearly failed to stay. It seems to me that ten furlongs is undoubtedly her best trip as she ran such a big race to finish second over that distance last time to the top class Promising Lead. I therefore hope her connections don't go through with the idea of cutting her right back to a mile. She deserves a shot at races like the Nassau Stakes and the Prix L'Opera.

MISS FANCY PANTS CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

MISS FANCY PANTS (36) came within a neck of winning a Grade 3 over hurdles and proved she's just as good on the flat when taking a ten furlong Naas handicap in exceptionally fast time.

It was hard for your eyes not to be drawn to Miss Fancy Pants in the early stages as she was clearly going so much better than anything else.

Turning into the straight the long striding grey mare was simply cruising. But it turned out she had a serious rival in SHOW BLESSED (36) who kept on very strongly indeed when she moved up to challenge him.

It turned out that it wasn't much of a contest because Miss Fancy Pants only had to be ridden along with hands and heels to edge past Show Blessed to win narrowly but comfortably with a good deal in hand.

The quality of the win can be seen by the fact that the first and second pulled eleven lengths clear of their rivals in a big field.

Show Blessed has already gone on to frank the form with a four length win. Now Miss Fancy Pants looks a very interesting proposition to take down a big flat handicap.

The way she's built you'd have to say that Miss Fancy Pants would probably need a mile and a half on a less testing track to produce her best. But the way she won here I'd be interested in betting her in pretty much any flat race she contests in the near future. She does show a bit of knee action and doesn't seem to have much acceleration so I'd think she'd do even better with some cut in the ground even though she won on a fast surface here.

BUSHRANGER LOOKS HAPPIER OVER SIX FURLONGS

Initially I wasn't certain that BUSHRANGER (35) would stay six furlongs. But he looked a lot more comfortable over the trip when winning the Anglesey Stakes than he has over five furlongs. He was always moving smoothly on the outside and came away readily in the last furlong or so when pressed to clock a decent time.

It's perfectly possible that if he hadn't been bumped at halfway when losing the Windsor Castle Stakes by half a length Bushranger would be unbeaten in three starts. Clearly he's useful and a solid Group class performer.

MASTERCRAFTSMAN WANTS A LOT LONGER

MASTERCRAFTSMAN (33) is a big, tall, strong, mature, good-bodied colt with a big, raking stride. He's built to go a mile and a half. So it's pretty amazing he managed to win and admittedly weak renewal of the Group 2 Railway Stakesover just six furlongs. He was last of the main group for much of the way. But the strong early pace eventually brought his stamina into play and he ranged up on the outside to nudge ahead in the last furlong. But he then looked to idle and only won in a photo.

It's tough to tell how good a horse is when it wins over such an inadequate distance and eases itself up in front. He's only Listed class on my ratings at this stage. But over seven furlongs, preferably a mile he could be anything. And next year he might just be a Derby horse.

TOO FAST A PACE CAUSED THE PROBLEMS IN IRISH DERBY

Nowadays you don't often see a Derby where the field sets off at such an unsustainable gallop that the pace collapses in the closing stages, leading to tired horses rolling around and getting in each other's way and a final time slower than it should have been. But that's what happened in this year's Irish Derby.

In fact they reached a point just after the halfway mark in the Irish Derby an amazing 6.5 seconds sooner than decent older handicappers in a later race on the card over the same course and distance. A measure of how much the field tired can be gained from the fact that the handicappers gained 2.6 seconds on the Derby runners in the last half of the race.

Given the incredibly fast pace it's not surprising that the two horses which trailed the field early finished first and second while the three horses that led the initial stampede filled the last three places.

With his stout German pedigree it makes sense that FROZEN FIRE (38) should be the one to benefit most from the race developing into such a stamina test. And he certainly won this race on merit as he finished full of running while everything else was out on its feet. Forget the interference. He won this fair and square.

The blindingly obvious target for Frozen Fire now just has to be the St Leger. Quite how well he'd do in a more normally run Group 1 race over twelve furlongs I don't know. My feeling is he wouldn't get going in time. If he were mine therefore I wouldn't risk hurting his stud value by running him between now and Doncaster. I'd keep him fresh till Doncaster, hopefully win there and then bundle him straight off to stud. If he's kept on the go between now and then I can see Frozen Fire being made to look bad.

CASUAL CONQUEST (37), like the winner, benefited from being held up right at the back off the fierce gallop. And I have little doubt that in a more normally run contest he'd have been able to produce a better finishing kick than Frozen Fire. He still kept on well and would have finished a little closer had he not initially tried to go left with Alessandro Volta when that one veered across the track in front of him.

I can see the logic in cutting back Casual Conquest to ten furlongs for the Irish Champion Stakes. He produced his best performance over the course and distance of that race in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. But he clearly does stay a mile and a half. The main reason he and everything bar the winner finished tired here was the furious gallop.

That said I do like Casual Conquest's chances in the Irish Champion Stakes and feel the Arc will be much tougher for him.

ALESSANDRO VOLTA (37) did really well to finish so close seeing that he was never more than three or four lengths off the suicidal early gallop. He looked the most likely winner as he kicked clear entering the straight. But this big, awkward horse is still really green, tends to race with his head carried too high and has never been an easy ride. So it wasn't a big surprise that he again demonstrated the steering problems he showed in the Lingfield Derby Trial by veering badly across the track as he tired.

On the plus side for Alessandro Volta is that he keeps running better with every race. If, as does seem rather likely, his greenness costs him the chance of a Group 1 win this year then he'll surely be kept in training next year when it's easy to see him improving in the same way Duke Of Marmalade has for the same stable this term.

If Curtain Call (35) was ever going to place in a Group 1 race this was surely the time. He benefited hugely from being held up at the back with the first and second. And the interference he suffered when Alessandro Volta swept across him may have cost him a neck or a half length but certainly no momentum. He was tiring a bit more than those around him at the finish and once more failed to clock a pattern class time.

No doubt many will fancy Curtain Call for the St Leger as he's so stoutly bred. But I can't see how he'd have a prayer with Frozen Fire in that race. I've simply never rated this horse highly and just don't believe he's close to Group 1 class.

The finishing effort of TARTAN BEARER (36) was already beginning to flatten out before Alessandro Volta carried him across the track.

Tartan Bearer showed an amazing burst of finishing speed off the relatively slow early pace at Epsom. Here he wasn't able to sustain his finishing effort, admittedly off a furious early gallop.

On balance therefore I'd like to see Tartan Bearer cut back to ten furlongs now. I'm not yet sure he has the ability to beat older horses at Group 1 level. But if he is to do it I'd say it will be over ten furlongs rather than twelve.

WASHINGTON IRVING (13) did a terrific job as the Coolmore pacemaker but got buffeted around like a metal ball in a pinball machine as he tired and fell back through the field up the straight. He'd run second to Casual Conquest over ten furlongs in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial over ten furlongs and is probably capable of taking a pattern race over that distance.

HINDU KUSH (21) is the horse that actually set the incredibly strong gallop. He's clearly got serious speed and has already won a good Listed race on fast ground over ten furlongs from the front. He'll surely be winning more races like that when there's a small enough field to ensure he doesn't have to go so fast to secure the early lead.

MAD ABOUT YOU GETS INTERESTING FOR IRISH OAKS

TAX FREE (37) beat two winners of the Prix Abbaye, Benbaun and Desert Lord, into second and third when taking the big sprint on the Irish Derby card at the Curragh. In doing so he achieved something rather remarkable. Tax Free has now run nine times on ground I rate faster than yielding in fields of eleven or less and won every single time.

I suspect that the reason Tax Free is so good in small fields has nothing to do with a dislike of crowding. Instead I think that he prefers the slower early pace that a small field tends to generate. Here for example Desert Lord and Benbaun went off at nothing like the pace than they have in previous contests and this seemed to suit Tax Free admirably because he picked them up with great enthusiasm.

Now I'm inclined to think that Tax Free has a serious shot of emulating Benbaun and Desert Lord by winning the Abbaye himself. I know the race invariably attracts a big field. But it is run in France and French sprints are rarely run at the furious pace five and six furlong contests are in Britain.

In the meantime if Tax Free once more finds himself in a small field on fast ground I wouldn't dream of opposing him.

HEART OF FIRE WANTS SEVEN FURLONGS

After he won a hot maiden at Leopardstown in May I predicted that HEART OF FIRE (35) might not prove as good as the horses which chased him home. I said this because he was allowed to set such a slow pace he came home in well under 24 seconds for the last quarter mile. Now I have to reverse my position because he's just set a really strong pace to win the Listed Rochestown Stakes over six furlongs at Cork and clearly wants a bit longer.

Heart Of Fire actually went a fraction quicker to halfway than borderline pattern class older horses did in a Conditions race over the trip later on the card. That's simply too fast for a juvenile so it's not surprising the final time was not as good as it would have been in a more evenly run contest (I've adjusted his rating to take account of this).

One thing the searching early pace did was to make the Rochestown Stakes a much greater test of stamina than a six furlong race normally is. This suited Heart Of Fire fine. When everything else started struggling he began to stride clear to win by nearly four lengths.

It's true that all of the bests horses by Heart Of Fire's sire Mujadil have been sprinters. But seeing the stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree and the way he ran here I'd say Heart Of Fire is a sprinter of the seven furlong kind. He looks capable of winning a Group 3 over that distance.

TAKE A CHANCE LOOKS PATTERN CLASS

TAKE A CHANCE (33) won a very slow run juvenile maiden that developed into a sprint finish at Limerick in nice style. Lobbing along in second place most of the way, Take A Chance had no problem coping with the sudden injection of pace as they entered the straight and hit the two furlong pole. In fact he surged ahead steadily to win by nearly three lengths.

This was a pattern class performance when I adjust my rating for the slow pace and the finishing kick the winner showed.

Take a Chance's pedigree seems to suggest that a mile will be his distance, with the possibility of a mile and a quarter. But his physique is undoubtedly that of a horse that will get ten furlongs, perhaps a little further. I would have therefore tagged him as a horse for next season rather than this but for the smart turn of foot he showed here. This suggests that he's going to be effective enough over seven furlongs and a mile to earn black type at two.

Third placed DACTIK (30) looks built for middle distances. He had to ease back into the pack due to the heavy traffic caused by the slow early pace and got caught flat footed when the pace picked up. However he got going strongly towards the finishing, finishing best of all to gain a couple of lengths in the last furlong and run the last quarter mile in around 23.8 seconds. Off a stronger pace or on softer ground I think he can take a juvenile maiden over a mile. Next year he might just be pattern class over ten furlongs.