HOW GOOD IS ALAIVAN?

ALAIVAN (38) looked awfully good winning a nice little Listed race on heavy ground at Roscommon. He sat three lengths second off the strong early pace set by Hindu Kush, closed up as that one tired then swung wide around the home turn to take the lead. After that it was plain sailing. Mick Kinane only had to wave the whip at him briefly to forge clear and win comfortably in fast time. He passed the post remarkably full of running for such slow ground.

It looked to me that Alaivan was struggling with the cut back to ten furlongs throughout the race when second to Grand Ducal in a Group 3 on his previous start. He’s a rangy, long striding sort that looks built for a mile and a half plus and never looked comfortable. Nonetheless he managed to get to the lead only to be run down late by a horse that’s run second in a Group 2 and holds a bunch of Group 1 entries. Here he confirmed that he’s better in more testing circumstances.

Previously Alaivan had looked awfully good winning the Gowran Park Classic Trial.

As I see it Alaivan has any amount of ability. And the chances are he’ll improve still further over the St Leger distance. Trainer John Oxx seems convinced that the horse needs soft or heavy ground to produce this sort of form. That means he could be tricky to place in the coming weeks. But in the Autumn, when wetter conditions prevail, Alaivan could well take something very decent.

AMERICA STILL THE BEST OPTION FOR FAMOUS NAME

FAMOUS NAME (41) went a long way to confirming Dermot Weld’s theory that nine furlongs is his optimum distance when winning the Group 3 Keeneland International Stakes over the distance on soft ground at the Curragh.

Now his connections seem inclined to drop him down to a mile for the Jacques Le Marois rather than go back up to ten furlongs for the Arlington Million. Personally I think that’s a mistake. All Famous Name’s four wins at a mile or less have come when there’s been cut in the ground - something that’s not usual for the big French race. But he did show in the Prix du Jockey Club that he’s very effective over the longer trip on a fast surface.

If he were mine I’d take Famous Name to America and campaign him there for the rest of the season. Even if he loses the Arlington Million there are several Grade 1 events over nine furlong and ten furlongs that he could run in over there. And the opposition on turf in America is weaker than it is in Europe. If the horse is going to finally gain that all-important win at the top level I’d bet on it being across the Pond.

Runner up STAYING ON (39) set a good pace and kept on well. It seems to me he doesn’t get home on tracks with really long or uphill homestraights and that’s why he’s run a bit below his best at Newbury, Sandown and Newmarket. Elsewhere he’s won four out of seven and finished second to useful horses in his three losses.

FAME AND GLORY RUNS SERIOUSLY FAST

After his terrific performance in the Irish Derby I simply have to conclude that I’ve totally misread FAME AND GLORY (42). I couldn’t find a way to award him much better than Group 3 speed ratings for his earlier performances. But what I hadn’t taken into account was that he might well improve markedly if given a much stiffer test of stamina than he had in a slow run Derby at Epsom or in his previous starts over ten furlongs.

At the Curragh Fame And Glory had a searching early pace up front thanks to a brace of pacemakers supplied by his stable, and it clearly suited him. On this run I’d have to give him a shot against pretty much any horse over a mile and a half.

Runner up GOLDEN SWORD (39) put up a good effort to keep on for second after chasing his tearaway stablemate Rockhampton for most of the race. It clearly took a good deal of stamina for him to sustain his effort in the way he did, so the St Leger does look an obvious target for him.

It’s tempting to put the sub par run of MASTEROFTHEHORSE (32) down to a lack of stamina. But the way he finished so strongly over the same trip at both Chester and Epsom kicks this idea into touch as far as I’m concerned. My best guess is that he is in need of a rest as his best form to date has come on his first two starts of the season or with a break thereafter. This is the second time he’s turned in a poor effort when he hasn’t been fresh.

LONG LASHES WORTH A FLUTTER IN MOYGLARE

I thought I’d found a smart bet in the Listed Ballygannon Stud Stakes at the Curragh in the shape of ELUSIVE GALAXY (34). After studying the form, times and videos of all the runners in the race I was convinced she held a clear edge over anything that had previously seen the racecourse.

It turned out I was right. But there was an unraced filly in the race that clearly has stacks of ability as she powered away from Elusive Galaxy once a gap finally opened up for her in the last furlong. The filly in question was LONG LASHES (37) who earned the biggest speed rating I’ve given a female juvenile this season to score by two and a half lengths.

Long Lashes is a good-sized, scopey sort that’s clearly going to have no problem running a fair bit further than the six furlongs she tackled at the Curragh. This being so it looks like a very smart plan to supplement her for the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over seven furlongs. She’ll be the one to beat in that race if my speed ratings are any guide.

Elusive Galaxy should also be winning in pattern companybefore long. I was seriously impressed with her performance in winning her sole start at Leopardstown.

In that race Elusive Galaxy lobbed along at the back of the field and made a big wide move to quickly gain ground at the three furlong mark as they rounded the home bend. But she was still five lengths down with two furlongs to run and the leaders were sprinting. However she was then able to make a second big effort from there to pick up the leaders, nose ahead just before the line and actually win with a bit in hand though narrowly. She was moving very smoothly as her jockey eased her up crossing the line

It takes a good horse to make two big moves in a race like that. And latest run confirmed that Elusive Galaxy is a good horse. She’s a good-bodied, muscular type that looks more like a three year old colt than a two year old filly. And she clearly has serious acceleration. I suspect she’s going to improve a bit on the bare form of her Curragh run and prove competitive in Group company. She was almost certainly up against a Group 1 rival at the Curragh and winning margins tend to get amplified when a horse runs against a much superior rival, making their performance look a shade worse than it actually was.

FAMOUS NAME VERY INTERESTING FOR ARLINGTON MILLION

FAMOUS NAME (41) deserves some sort of award for being one of the most consistent horses in training. He’s won or finished second to a proper Group 1 horse seven of the eight times he’s run beyond sprint trips.

Last Sunday at the Curragh Famous Name powered away from his rivals to win a very strongly run Listed race over a mile by five lengths in borderline Group 1 class time.

After his last start I suggested that it would be a smart idea to run Famous Name in America as there were more big races over his sort of trip and the opposition is weaker. It seems that trainer Dermot Weld has come to the same conclusion as the plan now is to go for the Arlington Million. I wish that race were over a furlong shorter as I agree with Weld that Famous Name’s optimum trip is probably nine furlongs. But they invariably go slow early in American turf races so I’d be pretty sure he’ll get home in a race where he looks to have a major chance.

HALLIE’S COMET FRANKS PROVIDANZA FORM

You only have to go back a few issues in this paper to know that fairly often the speed rating I give to a certain horse turns out to be too high or too low. This is understandable. There’s always an element of subjectivity in any set of ratings.

For this reason it’s very helpful when a horse goes and repeats a good speed rating I awarded it as HALLIE’S COMET (37) did in the valuable Premier handicap for fillies at the Curragh last Saturday.

With two furlongs to run Hallie’s Comet was clearly moving much better than any of her rivals. She looked sure to win when kicking clear soon after. But then it looked to me that she idled and ran green in front, allowing herself to get caught on the line.

I still say that Hallie’s Comet is going to benefit from being stepped up to middle distances. I reckon she’s only run so well in her last two starts at shorter trips because the soft ground and strong pace brought her stamina into play.

In any event, this run franks the form of Providanza, the horse that fairly hammered Hallie’s Comet into second place in a recent French Listed race, in a very big way. I gave Providanza a borderline Group 1 class speed rating for that success and note with great interest that she is still in this Sunday’s Prix Chloe at Chantilly. French punters probably won’t realise just how fast Providanza ran when beating Hallie’s Comet or that the form has just been franked. So I can see her starting at very nice odds at Chantilly.

WALK ON BYE CAN’T BE IGNORED

WALK ON BYE (34) put up a remarkable performance to beat colts on her racecourse debut at the Curragh. She clocked a pattern class time in adverse circumstances.

Always going smoothly, Walk On Bye looked capable of picking up the leaders at any point from around halfway. But all through the race her bigger male rivals had been clustering around her to the point where she was utterly boxed in and surrounded with two furlong to run. Running up to the furlong pole her jockey twice attempted to force his way between two rivals but Walk On Bye simply bounced off the hind quarters of one of them each time. There simply wasn’t a big enough gap and she lacked the size to just barge her way through. So, very late in proceedings, she was switched dramatically to the centre of the course where she surged forward in the last hundred yards to get up on the line.

It’s always hard to tell how fast a horse would have run that met traffic problems. But I think it’s safe to say Walk On Bye might well have gone a couple of lengths ahead. And that would make her a Group 1 filly on my speed ratings.

Seeing that her sire and dam were both Group 1 winning sprinters and that she’s built like a sprinter, it seems pretty obvious that Walk On Bye is not a Guineas candidate. However there are plenty of opportunities for her to win over shorter trips this year. So I’d bet on her taking a Group race, maybe even a Group 1 sooner rather than later.