SNOW FAIRY HARD TO ASSESS

It's tough to tell just how good SNOW FAIRY (38) is following her runaway win in the Irish Oaks. The British and Irish three year old fillies look a weak group this year so she almost certainly didn't have to put in a maximum effort to beat them by eight lengths. At this stage I have to rate her a couple of lengths per mile behind the top French filly Sarafina but I'm betting she can improve on this run.

Snow Fairy impressed me when winning the Oaks and what used to be called the Lupe Stakes in her only two previous tries at middle distances.

In the Goodwood race Snow Fairy came away quite easily after moving well throughout. At Epsom she had to weave her way through the big field and did so with great enthusiasm. She didn't seem put off at all by being yanked all over the place to find a run - even being prepared to bump into the rail when wriggling through an almost non existent gap to take the lead. She was still running really strong at the line and I'm convinced she'd have won more clearly at a course other than Epsom where the counter camber causes all sorts of traffic problems. She certainly seemed to validate that idea at the Curragh.

The stats suggest that Snow Fairy was massively over-priced at 7-2. These show that there have been twenty winners of the Oaks at Epsom which have gone on to run in the Irish Oaks. This is how they fared;

2010 SNOW FAIRY WON

2009 SARISKA WON

2007 LIGHT SHIFT Second

2006 ALEXANDROVA WON

2004 OUIJA BOARD WON

2003 CASUAL LOOK Third

1999 RAMRUMA WON

1996 LADY CARLA Fourth

1993 INTREPIDITY Fourth

1992 USER FRIENDLY WON

1991 JET SKI LADY Second

1989 ALIYSA Second

1988 DIMINUENDO WON

1987 UNITE WON

1984 CIRCUS PLUME Second

1981 BLUE WIND WON

1978 FAIR SALINIA WON

1975 JULIETTE MARNY WON

1973 MYSTERIOUS Second

1971 ALTESSE ROYALE WON

Twelve wins from twenty tries is pretty darned impressive and suggests you should always be wary about opposing the Epsom winner when she turns out at the Curragh.

It's worth noting that the early pace was very strong in the Irish Oaks and that this seemed to bring out the best in Snow Fairy. This being so I'm not convinced the idea of cutting her back to ten furlongs for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf is a good one. If anything going up in distance for the St Leger might well be the best way for her to gain another Group 1 win.

PHOENIX STAKES PROBABLY TOO SHORT FOR DUNBOYNE EXPRESS

DUNBOYNE EXPRESS (37) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a two year old this season when winning on his racecourse debut. But I expressed concern at the time about cutting him back over half a furlong in distance for the Anglesey Stakes.

He got away with it thanks to the soft ground and strong early gallop. But it was only in the final furlong that Dunboyne Express really got motoring. When he did he surged clear to score by eight lengths while equaling the speed rating I gave him for his debut success.

Dunboyne Express is clearly smart. However I hope his connections don't go through with the idea of cutting him back even further in distance for next month's Phoenix Stakes. He continues to look like a future middle distance performer to me, so I think he'd be in trouble over the six furlongs of the Phoenix Stakes. If he were mine I'd be going for the National Stakes and then the Racing Post Trophy.

PATHFORK IS SMART

It's tough to put a number on the performance that PATHFORK (36) put up when making a winning debut at the Curragh. The going was different on every part of the course and his race was the only one run around the Curragh's dog leg. However the pace was good throughout and he beat some decent looking rivals. So I'm happy to go with the best estimate I can make which tags the run around the Listed to Group 3 mark.

The impressive thing was that this good-bodied mature colt was always moving best and came away nicely to win with a fair bit in hand. Clearly he's capable of better.

There are already some very smart two year olds around this year, but I'd say Pathwork will be winning in pattern company before long. He looks a miler to me.

ZOFFANY PROBABLY THE TOP TWO YEAR OLD

ZOFFANY (38) won the Golden Fleece Stakes at Leopardstown in seriously good style. He just lobbed along in last place behind the rather ordinary pace then lengthened impressively to pick up the leader with little effort and score comfortably by two lengths.

He was moving easily as they crossed the line and could clearly have produced a good deal more. Nonetheless he managed to cover the last three furlongs 1.7 seconds faster than they did in the 50-75 handicap over the same trip and 2.1 seconds faster than in the 50-85 handicap. When I adjust my speed rating for this it indicates a solid Group 1 performance.

Zoffany is a big, mature, muscular, good looking sort with a long stride that he can use to really motor in the closing stages. Until he ran here I figured that a mile was going to prove his maximum distance. But the finish he produced to win so cosily at the end of seven furlongs tells me he'll stay ten furlongs next year and very possibly a mile and a half. There's stamina for that distance on his dam's side and his sire's three best runners have been Rail Link, Zambezi Sun and Harbinger - all smart mile and a half performers.

The seven furlongs of this race was clearly much more suitable than the six furlongs of the Coventry. In that race that pace was too strong for Zoffany to manouver easily. He couldn't escape being the meat in the sandwich twice in traffic incidents in the big field.

Earlier Zoffany had been most impressive winning his first two starts. On neither occasion was the early pace anywhere near fast enough for him to clock a decent final time. But he finished tremendously fast both times.

The most impressive turn of foot Zoffany showed was first time out where he was denied a run down the rail and had to be switched out to the centre of the course to make his run. From there he picked up incredibly well, clocking 10.7 seconds for the final furlong. That’s literally as fast as a racehorse can run. And only a high class horse can produce that sort of finishing burst even off a crawl of an early gallop.

Eight of the last fourteen horses Aidan O'Brien has run in the Coventry have gone on to win or run second by half a length or less in a Group 1. I'm confident that Zoffany is going to make it nine out of fifteen. In fact I doubt that Aidan O'Brien, or anyone else for that mater, is going to produce a better two year old this year. So the 33-1 the bookies are offering about Zoffany for the 2000 Guineas is surely way too big.

Runner up STENTORIAN (36) enjoyed a soft lead but was totally outpaced by the winner in the last furlong. He is a long striding colt that looks built for a mile and a half plus. This is not surprising. He's by Street Cry, a ten furlong G1 winner that always looked like he'd stay longer out of a mare whose best run came when she ran second in a Listed race over twelve furlongs in Canada.

Stentorian found things happening too quickly for him over six furlongs on his debut where he also ran green. He won when he was stepped up to seven furlongs at Leicester next time.

At Leicester Stentorian ran in second place early on. But when the gallop picked up three furlongs out he was instantly under a full out drive and dropped back to fourth. In the closing stages he found the uphill finish helping him and he got to the lead inside the last half furlong to win by half a length.

There's no way I can interpret the final or sectional times of that run or the form to say it was a pattern class effort but this run was. I tag it around Listed to Group 3 class.

Logically Stentorian should be able to win a Listed or Group 3 juvenile race. But there's such a difference between the distances available to him this year and the trip it looks like he wants to go that I wonder if he's going to manage it.

Next year when he gets the chance to run much longer distances than this I can see Stentorian proving very useful. He might just be a St Leger horse.

KISSABLE CAN IMPROVE OVER LONGER

KISSABLE (35) only got rolling just in time to win a good maiden at Leopardstown over seven furlongs. But she was full of run at the finish and merits a Listed class speed rating when I adjust for the modest early pace and sprint finish.

My feeling from watching this run is that Kissable wants a longer distance. Softer ground or a stronger early pace would help too. This being so I can readily see her improving enough to justify her entry in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.

JAN VERMEER MAY WELL BE THE BEST OF O'BRIEN'S DERBY 1-2-3

Aidan O'Brien's policy of fielding two pacemakers doesn't seem to work in the Derby at Epsom. But elsewhere it has been responsible for revolutionising the way that Europe's top middle distance races are run. By entering one cheap speedball that goes off like a scalded cat and one decent horse to chase him that might just be good enough to steal the race O'Brien can now pretty much ensure his top horses have a strong pace to run at anywhere but Epsom.

This is a huge plus because the best middle-distance runners O'Brien produces are invariably big, strong colts that lengthen rather than quicken and get every inch of a mile and a half. They can get caught flat-footed in sprint finishes but excel in mile and a half races run at an end to end gallop.

The tactics worked perfectly in this year's Irish Derby where O'Brien's horses filled the first three places.

There's clearly very little between the three. Indeed I can easily envisage slightly different circumstances where they could have finished in any order at the Curragh.

CAPE BLANCO (41) won the race. He raced in a distant fourth place, swinging along and moving smoothly till closing up after entering the straight. He got level with Midas Touch before the furlong pole and then prevailed in a long, hard fought battle to the line to score by half a length.

Cape Blanco is clearly a smart horse. His only loss in six outings came in the Prix du Jockey Club where he didn't run that badly. His sub par run there may was I suspect partly caused by an inability to cope with the huge field and partly by the freakishly strong competition provided by an exceptionally strong crop of French three year olds.

After the race O'Brien was talking about the King George as a good option for Cape Blanco. I can see the merit in that idea. After all the older horses don't look that great this year so far. So it makes sense to take them on in all the big Group 1's.

My concern is that the King George may come a little too soon for Cape Blanco. He had a hard race here and it might well be a good idea to wait until the Juddmonte International. He's already shown that he's very effective over the course and distance of that race by winning the Dante.

Only one of Aidan O'Brien's previous six Irish Derby winners ran again before the Juddmonte International. This was Galileo who took the King George but following a much easier win at the Curragh than Cape Blanco achieved.

Runner up MIDAS TOUCH (41) raced in third behind his two pacemakers early, three to four lengths ahead of eventual winner Cape Blanco. He was hustled to take the lead as soon as the number two pacemaker Bright Horizon tired before the much better At First sight even had a chance to take over the job of making the running.

Midas Touch was actually in the lead before they entered the three furlong home straight. It looked like he was going to hold on for quite a while but then his stride faltered and his stablemates started closing. I'm not convinced this was all because he tired though. It looked to me that he idled and ran a little green due to having been out in front for so long. He rolled towards the fence, away from it then back again in the final furlong, causing Jan Vermeer to be switched, though this didn't look to affect their respective placings.

When Cape Blanco eventually got alongside Midas Touch he rallied and kept on running strongly all the way to the line. Clearly he stays a mile and a half really well and looks sure to get the St Leger trip. Indeed I cannot recall a more obvious St Leger candidate from recent years.

It does seem that Midas Touch needs a proper test of stamina. So far he's run in two races where there was a strong early gallop and another where there was soft ground. This smart run was his sole loss in those three starts. He's run well below his best in three tries on fast ground off a moderate early pace.

The logical thing to do with Midas Touch is surely to aim him at the St Leger by way of the Great Voltigeur Stakes. Cape Blanco has already demonstrated that it's not a good idea to tackle the red hot three year olds in France this year. So running Midas Touch in the Grand Prix de Paris does not look a smart play. Giving him a rest before the Voltigeur and the Leger looks far more likely to produce that vital Group 1 win which will ensure the horse's stud value.

After watching the race several times I've come to the conclusion that third placed JAN VERMEER (40) may well prove to be slightly better than his two stablemates.

Jamie Heffernan allowed Jan Vermeer to come out of the stalls a couple of lengths behind the rest of the field so that he could switch him to the running rail. He lobbed along at the back with just one horse behind him for most of the race, at one point being about twenty lengths off the leader.

Approaching the straight Jan Vermeer was eight lengths off Midas Touch and Cape Blanco who soon joined battle up front. He had to be switched off the rail as he began his run to find room. Then he had to be switched to the rail, to the outside and back again as Midas Touch ran around a bit in front of him. The manouverings didn't cost him more than a length or so but he only lost by two lengths. And in the last half furlong he was only ridden along hands and heels to keep third place once Heffernan saw he wasn't going to get back at the first two. In addition Midas Touch had rolled back again towards the rail, closing the gap on him.

What I liked most about this run was the way Jan Vermeer so readily made up a lot of ground on high class rivals who were not tiring at that point. That tells me he has a fair bit more pace than either Cape Blanco or Midas Touch and doesn't need a pacemaker to produce his best form.

It should be remembered that Jan Vermeer had a delayed start to the season and may very will improve for this run. If he were mine I'd be running him rather than Cape Blanco in the King George as he seems more likely to recover from this run in time. But wherever Jan Vermeer runs next, even if it's against Behkabad and co in the Grand Prix de Paris, I'll be very interested in his chances.

Fourth placed MONTEROSSO (39) will probably take a while to get over this race as he was under a drive from five furlongs out. It's understandable that Dettori kept pushing him because he kept on finding and closed relentlessly until the Ballydoyle trio started to edge away from him in the final 150 yards.

At this point Monterosso continues to look like a Group 2 horse. But he's already improved a good deal, so it's possible he'll eventually become the first Group 1 middle distance winner Mark Johnston has trained in Britain, Ireland or France. Right now though he surely needs a break as this was his eighth run of the year and he had a hard race.

DOES PROFOUND BEAUTY REALLY STAY?

I noted after her last start that sectional times suggested PROFOUND BEAUTY (37) had the speed to be effective over ten furlongs. Following her loss to TACTIC (38) in the Curragh Cup I'm now seriously wondering whether she really stays a mile and three quarters and two miles when the early pace is strong.

When she ran fifth in the Melbourne Cup in 2008 Profound Beauty tired in the closing stages. It was the same story in the Curragh Cup. Tactic pressed then sustained a searching end to end gallop while Proud Beauty didn't see out the distance as well as him - after looking to be going better early in the straight.

Profound Beauty is capable of beating better horses than Tactic off an ordinary early gallop at longer trips. And the early gallop is normally a fair bit slower for the Melbourne Cup so it's still a logical target. But I'd really like to see Profound Beauty given a shot at winning a Group 1 race over a mile and a half or perhaps even ten furlongs before she's retired.

FLYING CLOUD WANTS A MILE AND A HALF

CHINESE WHITE (38) was able to retire with a Group 1 win in the Pretty Polly Stakes. But if it's a future winner you're looking for I'd suggest the runner up FLYING CLOUD (37). The Godolphin filly was labouring when asked to pick up ground early in the straight but finally got rolling late, using her big stride to gain slowly and snatch second place on the line.

It does seem clear from this run that Flying Cloud needs a mile and a half to produce her best form. And let's not forget she's a really good filly that has the size and substance of a colt.

She won her first two starts in France when trained by Andre Fabre, including the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre from the smart Board Meeting who has since run second and third in Group 1 company. Fabre recommended that she be switched to Suroor as he felt she was Group 1 class (that's apparently the deal they have with him - he trains the horses and the recommends those for a transfer he thinks can win a Group 1).

Flying Cloud justified Fabre's opinion by winning the Group 2 Ribblesdale by four lengths on her first try for Suroor. She dominated her rivals from a quarter mile out that day.

Then she had a 'slight setback' and was off for over four months. She returned in the Group 1 Premio Lydia Tesio.

There were a couple of problems Flying Cloud had in that race. The first was the soft ground. She has a fast ground action and all her wins have been on fast ground (the official soft ground for her Prix Cleopatre win was bogus as they nearly broke the course record in the Prix Muguet on the same card).

The second problem Flying Cloud had in the Premio Lydia Tesio was the slow pace and sprint finish. With her finishing speed blunted by the soft ground she had trouble working her way into contention once the sprint began. She managed to get to within a length or so then fell back but rallied again in the last furlong to be beaten only three lengths.

Suroor warned that Flying Cloud would need her first run of the season after she'd suffered another 'setback' in Dubai (like Coolmore, Godolphin rarely specify what exactly has been ailing their horses). Nonetheless she ran a big race to be third to Sariska and Midday, the two top fillies in Europe - either of which would be odds on to win this race.

In that race Flying Cloud over-raced in the early stages, seeing a lot of daylight in the outside of the tiny field and also being keen as most horses are off an enforced break. She moved up to challenge Sariska three furlongs out and looked a threat to her briefly before appearing to blow up through lack of fitness. She ended up third by four lengths, with jockey Frankie Dettori putting his whip down and just nursing her home in the final furlong.

Having seen the way she bolted up in Group 2 company, tried so hard to overcome adverse circumstances in Italy and then went so well against Europe's top two fillies last time it seems far more likely than not that Flying Cloud is a Group 1 filly. Her connections clearly think so as they have her entered up in six future Group 1's against males. Even for Godolphin that is unusual.

Fourth placed REMEMBER WHEN (32) is clearly another that wants to go back up to a mile and a half. She was under a full out drive from five furlongs out and was clearly having trouble with the scorching pace set by third placed Akdarena. Indeed Remember When is such a rangy, long striding filly that I can see her winning the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster over the Leger trip.