Oh dear. The three year old middle distance colts we've seen so far in Britain and Ireland really do seem to be a slow bunch. My ratings suggested they'd all finish in a heap in the Irish Derby and that's just what happened. Grey Swallow (40) won the race. But I sincerely doubt that we'll be seeing him or any of those he beat winning in Group 1 company again.

Still, not to despair. We have some nice three year olds waiting in the wings that may yet shine over middle distances. Azamour and Ecomium are obvious examples. And there are some very smart three year old fillies, notably Latice and Ouija Board. While of course there is the incomparable Bago and his rival Cacique in France.

One of the best moves ever made by the International Pattern Committee was to dramatically boost the number of Group races, especially Group 1's for older fillies and mares this year. This has led to many more smart fillies and mares being kept in training. One of them is CHORIST (40) who took the Pretty Polly stakes in good time on the first occasion it has been a Group 1.

I've noted before that the newly created and upgraded Group races for older fillies and mares are pretty hot affairs. And the Pretty Polly stakes was no exception. Chorist was opposed by the three year old Alexander Goldrun who had gone close in a hot renewal of the Prix de Diane on her latest outing. Chorsit managed to hold that one though, and in doing so pulled well clear of the third.

The key to Chorist seems to be a small field. She's met interference a couple of times in big fields. But in races with eight or fewer runners she has won eight of the last times she's raced at ten furlongs or less and finished a close second in her two defeats.

ALEXANDER GOLDRUN (40) is rather unlucky to be racing in a year when there are so many smart older fillies around and quite a few exceptional three year old fillies too (e.g. Attraction, Latice and Ouija Board). In a normal year and with a bit of racing luck she might well have won her ninth race in a row here.

This was the second time in less than two weeks that Alexander Goldrun had earned a seriously good Group 1 speed figure for a three year old filly. So I suspect she is now in need of a rest. For this reason I'd oppose her if she's rushed back to the races within the next four weeks. But if she's given a break I'd bet on her coming back and being tough to beat in the Nassau stakes which seems the obvious target, or perhaps the Prix D'Astarte at Deauville which is now a Group 1, and run over a mile, which Alexander Goldrun seems equally effective at.

At the same meeting Mkuzi (38) ran a Group 3 time to take a Group 3 race. I don't really know what else he's going to win. Like Chorist, he seems to meet traffic in big fields, so I could only recommend following him in races where there a handful of runners as there were here.

TROPICAL LADY (38) extended her winning sequence to three when running away with a Premier handicap on the Irish Derby card. She earned a seriously good Group 3 ratings while doing so and will almost certainly rate as the fastest runner in the line up if she takes up her engagement in the Group 3 Brownstown stakes at Leopardstown on July 3rd. Even if she misses that race I'd bet on her winning a black type race sometime soon.

At the same meeting OSTERHASE (41) broke the five furlong course record at the Curragh when bolting up in a Listed race. I now see why he was able to beat Benbaun, the joint fastest three year old sprinter on my ratings, last time out. Clearly, at five furlongs on fast ground Osterhase is a seriously good sprinter, unquestionably the fastest in Ireland - and maybe up to winning a Group sprint in Britain or France. If he were mine I'd be targeting him at the Prix Abbaye and hoping that he encountered fast ground. He's won the last three times he's raced on fast ground at the minimum distance and looks the best sprinter Ireland has produced since Namid, who of course won the Abbaye a couple of years ago. As with Namid, it's tough to tell how fast Osterhase can run because there aren't any Irish sprinters fast enough to push Osterhase to his limit. I would not be surprised if he turned out to be Group 1 class though. I certainly look forward to seeing him step up to Group company. Like many of the top sprinters, Osterhase seems to be peaking at the age of five.

REMEMBER THE ALAMO!

RARE CROSS (34) won a Tipperary 5f maiden in smart time for a two year old. It's tough to say exactly what she is at this stage. All I can say is that she's likely to prove competitive in pattern company. That's worth knowing because punters are likely to under-rate this run seeing it was at a minor track, Rare Cross is from a small stable, and I'm the only person who publishes speed ratings for such the lesser Irish courses.

Runner-up ABBEYLARA (33) put up a great run for a debutante, staying on nicely to get to within half a length of the winner. She looks a slam dunk to win a maiden next time, maybe over a furlong longer.

At the same meeting Aiden O'Brien reminded us that he can still turn out the occasional national hunt winner when THE ALAMO (34) recorded an unusually fast time for a bumper race on his racecourse debut. Where The Alamo goes from here I don't know but he certainly looks capable of winning a few races, both bumpers and novice hurdles, in the coming months.

Willie Mullins' CRAANFORD MILL (34) had bolted up by six lengths on his previous start and finished seven lengths lear of the rest here when chasing The Alamo home. He's clearly useful and above the normal class of bumper and novice hurdle runner you see in the summer.

DUNEDEN (36) earned an unusually big speed figure for a bumper winner when skating home by 20 lengths at Naas. Trainer Noel Meade says he jumps well so he looks like a horse to follow in novice hurdles. Before then though he might have a race on the flat, and he has the speed to win something decent there too.

Like Mark Johnston, Jim Bolger has a knack of getting horses to outstay their pedigrees, and he proved this yet again when DANELISSIMA (37) beat a decent field to take the Group 3 Noblesse stakes at Naas in good time.

Clearly the step up to twelve furlongs improved Danelissima. I now rate her as one of the top contenders for the Irish Oaks, which is set to be her next run. In fact the only horse I'd really be worried about beating her there is Ouija Board, and she might well go elsewhere. The great thing is that Danelissima's big run here came while Royal Ascot was in full swing, so it slipped under the radar and received far less coverage than it otherwise would have. This suggests that she'll likely start at much bigger odds than she should at the Curragh next time.

Old ANTRIM COAST (36) won a Naas sprint handicap in seriously good time off a long lay-off. His trainer says that he is a chronic bleeder. Horses that bleed invariably only ever run well on fast ground and when they're fresh. I'd expect Antrim Coast to be the same. If the ground stays firm he'd be a decent bet to follow up this win but I'd avoid him if he's not rested for at least five weeks thereafter or encounters anything but good or firmer ground.

There aren't that many good sprinters in Ireland, so the fast time run by CIVIC DUTY (37) in a six furlong sprint at Navan is definitely worth noting. The filly has now won three of her four starts since she cut back to sprint trips and beat Acorn Lodge, a horse that had won four of his last five starts by two lengths into second.

The obvious target for Civic Duty would be the valuable Rockingham Handicap at the Curragh on Irish Derby day. But her official rating was only 59 going into this race, so, even with a big rise, it looks like she wouldn't make the cut in that contest. Wherever she goes she ought to be well worth following. There are very few Irish sprint handicappers that could go with her on this form.

Over jumps MANOE (36) won for the second time in two tries over fences when beating the useful experienced chaser Quadco at Cork. He's probably capable of running a bit faster with experience and his connections must have something valuable mind to be keeping such a smart horse on the go during the summer. He's obviously a horse to watch out for at the Galway Festival.

MEDICINAL (42) earned the same speed figure as the Epsom Derby and Prix du Jockey Club winners when beating useful older horses in the ten furlong Silver stakes at Leopardstown. Clearly, he improved markedly on his first two starts of the season. The big question is 'why?'

Dermot Weld feels that Medicinal is a lazy horse and that it was the first time blinkers that improved him. The thing is first time blinkers tend to make a horse run too free in the early stages, and that's just what Medicinal did here, so I'm not convinced they aided this performance.

The best explanation I can come up with is that Medicinal is a horse that prefers fast ground. He earned one of the best speed figures by an Irish two year old last year on the only other occasion he encountered firm going. I concede he is by Linamix, a sire with a reputation for producing soft ground performers. But that reputation is based mostly on his French runners - and in France the penetrometer is responsible for a massive over-reporting of soft ground.

The race that springs to mind for Medicinal is obviously the Irish Derby. But Weld describes him as a horse with 'plenty of pace', and his dam was a sprinter. So it's tough to know whether he'd get the extra two furlongs there. Then again, if the dam's side of his pedigree meant anything he wouldn't have won over ten furlongs here. Also he was staying on well behind Yeats on soft ground at this distance and showed no signs of stopping here despite wasting energy by pulling hard early. You can therefore argue a good case for steering Medicinal to the Curragh. But I'd bet good money he's headed to the United states instead.

Weld said that after the race that he had an open mind about future plans for Medicinal. However I note with interest that he has nominated him for the 'Mid-America Triple'. This is a series of three races comprising the US$200,000 Arlington Classic over 8.5f, the $250,000 American Derby over ten furlongs and the $500,000 Secretariat stakes over ten furlongs. I think the bonus for winning all three is a million dollars

Last year Weld won the American Derby with Evolving Tactics, a horse vastly inferior to Medicinal on my speed figures. Evolving Tactics was able to win because the top US three year olds are kept to dirt. The three year old turf runners in the states are probably the weakest division in any major racing country. A decent Listed class European runner can beat the best of them - and my speed figures say Medicinal is Group 1 not Listed class.

Medicinal could scoop the best part of two million dollars by winning the Mid-America Triple. He'd have far less chance of winning much less money if he went for the Irish Derby. Admittedly, he might have a bit of trouble cutting back to 8.5f for the first leg, the Arlington Classic on July 3rd. But he'd probably outclass the field to such an extent he'd win anyway. He'd be a near certainty to win the next leg, the American Derby over ten furlongs. And he'd have a huge chance of completing the sweep of all three races in the Secretariat Stakes. I love this plan, and I bet Weld will too.

GRAND PASSION (42) has run some big speed figures in his time and earned another one chasing home Medicinal here. My read of his form is that he's best in small fields (11 or less runners like most such horses), prefers faster ground and dislikes steeply undulating tracks. In this combination of circumstances Grand passion has won two times out of four and finished a close second in French and Irish pattern races in his two losses. I rate him around Group 2 class but he's yet to win in pattern company. This means he can get into a Listed contest without a penalty. If he runs in such a race soon I wouldn't oppose him.

If there was in Irish Derby horse in the race it was probably COBRA (40). This Coolmore three year old ran a big race to finish third. His brother, Major Drive, has won hurdles over two and three quarter miles. So Cobra might well improve over twelve furlongs. With Yeats under a cloud, Cobra looks like O'Brien's best shot of winning the Irish Derby to me. But I note he's not even listed in Coral's betting. I can see him starting at huge odds on the day, especially if Yeats makes the line-up.

On the same card NAAHY (40) showed just how good he is around a turn at seven furlongs when taking the Group 3 Ballycorus stakes in fast time. He deserves a shot at something better. But whether this seven furlong specialist can stretch his stamina to a mile for the Sussex stakes has to be open to doubt. If he is to take a Group 1 then surely the obvious target has to be the Prix Foret in the Autumn. Of course the ground may be soft by then so it's understandable his connections want to shoot for something big in the summer when the ground is more likely to be fast which Naahy seems to need. Having said that, the Sussex stakes can be a soft Group 1 sometimes. IN any event, I suspect Naahy hasn't stopped winning yet.

Runner-up HAMAIRI (39) could be anything and put up a chunky speed figure for a three year old. He'd skated home the only previous time he encountered fast ground and looked an unlucky loser here (he was boxed in then flew late). He keeps on running on so strongly at the end of his races that he looks sure to improve over a mile. He too is in the Sussex stakes and looks a better candidate for it than Naahy. I just wish he was in the St James' Palace stakes against his own age group. He would have had a serious chance there. He's certainly worth following and could easily prove Group 1 class.

Fast ground specialist LATINO MAGIC (39) has run a strong of big races on genuinely good to firm or firm ground, winning four times and running close in big races three times from his last seven tries. He ran big again to finish a close third here. If he is going to finally take a Group race, now is the time while the going is perfect for him.

BLESSYOURPINKSOX (33) put up a decent time for a three year old filly to win a good fillies' handicap at Naas. She's lightly raced and progressive and could well be good enough to take the Ulster Oaks which is her next target.

LIFE CLASS (34) is another useful three year old filly that won a good fillies handicap at Tralee in fast time.

BENBAUN (37) confirmed his status as the joint fastest three year old sprinter with a short head defeat in fast time in Listed company. He lost because he was forced to take on older horses. This is the problem all three year old sprinters face in Europe. There really ought to be more pattern race sprints dedicated to this age group, since sprinters are at a huge disadvantage taking on their elders especially this early in the season. The best immediate prospects for Benbaun would obviously be to take advantage of his official handicap mark of 93 before he's re-assessed. The obvious target is the upcoming William Hill Tropy at York on the 12th of June but his trainer says that race comes too soon and that he has another big Irish race in mind for him on Irish Derby day at the Curragh. This would be the valuable Rockingham Handicap. My ratings say Benbaun will have a decent chance in that race.

At the same meeting, the lightly-raced five year old CHRISTAVELLI (37) showed once again that he's a useful horse at seven furlongs and a mile. He's won four times out of six at such distances but failed all five times he's run longer. He won nicely here and I can see him talking something pretty decent this season.

We've been seeing fast times all season from British three year olds in handicaps. Ireland got in on the act when VALENTINA GUEST (33) won a decent handicap at Leopardstown over ten furlongs. Valentina Guest had run second on her only previous start this season to the progressive older gelding Athlumney Lad. That was quite some effort because Athlumney Lad has now won four of his last five starts on the flat. In addition Valentina Guest was off slow and had to come from a long way back in what my speed figures suggest was a very slow run race. The pace must have quickened up markedly in the last few furlongs that day and it's tough to gain ground into an accelerating pace as she did there.

Clearly Valentina Guest has improved for the step up to middle distances. This is not surprising. She's by Be My Guest whose progeny win plenty of jumps races and who tend to be best at ten furlongs on the flat . Her dam, a sister to Group 1 middle distance winner Kartajana, also improved at longer distances, winning two times out of three at ten furlongs plus, including a Listed race.

Right now Valentina Guest rates close to pattern class on my speed figures. She was always going smoothly and won this race easing up. So I can see her making any amount of improvement. I'd be wary of opposing her next time out whatever class of race she contests.

KING JOCK (34) was another easy three year old winner at the same meeting. He took a maiden by five lengths in decent time over a mile. His pedigree suggests that a mile is his right trip (he's a half brother to a Listed 8.5f winner and a G3 mile winner). I imagine his official handicap mark will be pretty big after this, but he would only need to improve a little to be competitive in pattern company.

One slow time at the meeting was the one put up by WINDERMERE (30) in winning the Saval Beg stakes from Vinnie Roe. Many observers will put this win down to an enterprising ride by Johnny Murtagh and assume that Windermere will get beat next time while Vinnie Roe will bounce back to his best. In fact, my speed ratings for Vinnie Roe have been showing a slight but steady decline for some time now. I'm concerned that. like most horses, he has deteriorated at six years of age.

Windermere on the other hand is still a useful horse. He earned a rating of 38 from me in France last year and is a very tough horse to beat when he's fresh as he was here. Windermere has now come into a race off a break of 27 days or more six times. He won all six times. Unfortunately Windermere's next scheduled start comes in less than 27 days at Royal Ascot. He's lost all seven times he's been brought back to the races in less than 27 days, so I'd expect him to lose if he does run at Royal Ascot. But if he's rested longer thereafter he'll be worth betting to win in Group company. Given his running style, a French long distance race would be the obvious option.

NEPRO (32) won for the second time and is a pattern class two year old according to the clock. He should have a fair chance in the upcoming Goffs Challenge, though he'd need to run a bit faster to make me really excited about his prospects in that race.

POLY DANCE (39) earned a seriously good Group class speed figure when winning for the fourth time in a row at Longchamp in April. He's lost a couple of times since, in a three way photo next time and then when running third to the smart Art Master. But he's capable of winning a good Group race at a mile. The trick with him apparently is that he needs to be held up till the last second as he idles as soon as he hits the front.

HIGH FLASH (39) only just went under and went on to win before finishing second to a useful horse in Tiganello in Listed company. He too looks capable of winning a Group race.

WHIPPER (39) won the Prix Djebel on very soft ground in seriously good time. He's now won all four times he's raced on soft or heavy ground beyond five furlongs and lost every time he's raced on yielding or faster. He's a horse to remember for the Autumn when he's likely to get the going he needs and may pop up at a big price in a race like the Prix Foret.

AUBONNE (41) beat a strong field of colts in a hot conditions race at Longchamp in April. She stepped up to Group 3 company recently and repeated the trick. As long as she avoids soft ground, which her trainer says she dislikes, she's likely to prove competitive with the best fillies. Her big target is apparently the Beverly D at Arlington in August. She'd have a serious chance there.