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BUSH MAIDEN IS FAST ON FAST GROUND
BUSH MAIDEN (36) clocked a time that suggests she's capable
of earning some black type when winning a 60-100 handicap at Leopardstown. She's
now won three of the four times she's run on ground that has had the word 'firm'
in the official description. Her sole loss was a close second to the useful
Valentina Guest. It's the right time of year for a fast ground specialist so I'd
expect to see her winning again soon.
AN TADH IS GROUP CLASS
AN TADH (38) took a few runs to find form last season, and
he's gone and repeated the same thing this time around. After a couple of
sub-par runs behind Decado he won a good seven furlong conditions race at Naas
in a time that would win many Group races. He probably broke the track record,
but track records are not kept in Ireland, so all I can say is that he ran the
fastest time for the distance in the last ten years.
It may be that An Tadh is best around a turn. I say this
because he would have won his last four starts around a turn but for one narrow
defeat by Sandie who went on to run a good fourth in Group 1 company next time.
It's really too early to say for sure though. All I can be certain of is that An
Tadh is one of the best three year olds in Ireland right now.
HOW GOOD IS COUGAR BAY
COUGAR BAY (37) earned a seriously big speed rating for a
maiden winner when scoring at Leopardstown. He'd also run a good race when
second to likely Queen's Vase favourite Galient in a very good Newmarket maiden
on his seasonal debut. Clearly he's a smart three year old and proved this when
going under by just a length to Heliostatic in a Listed race at the Curragh just
three days later. My speed ratings indicate the early pace was a bit slow that
day so he did well to stay on strongly and get to within a length of the useful
Heliostatic. He looks an interesting proposition for the two furlongs longer
King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot..
NASAFAR (36) finished second to Cougar bay at Leopardstown
and is unlikely to remain a maiden for long. Unfortunately he has high profile
connections and a pretty big reputation, so you're unlikely to get rich
following him.
CHELSEA ROSE GETTING INTERESTING AGAIN
MUSTAMEET (39) is one of those boringly consistent horses
that never seems to get their due. Put him over seven furlongs or a mile on any
course or going and he'll run fast enough to win a Group 3 or even a Group 2
every single time. He did the job again at Leopardstown to take a hot Listed
race from the smart filly CHELSEA ROSE (39). I can see him winning again in
Group company soon at decent odds.
Chelsea Rose is now getting interesting again. She lost her
unbeaten record at Leopardstown on her fourth start at the course but ran quick
enough to win a Group 2 race against fillies while doing so. She has of course
already won a Group 1 race and might well do so again. I'm not so sure that she
was as unsuited to the nine furlongs of this race as most seem to suppose. She
appears remarkably versatile as regards to distance. The only thing she really
seems to need is a decent pace.
Chelsea Rose twice ran fast enough to win a Group 1 race
against fillies last year. I reckon she can win again at the top level against
her own sex, quite possibly in the Pretty Polly Stakes next month.
LUAS LINE (38), another former Group 1 winning filly, ran
her fastest ever race according to my ratings to finish a close fourth. She's
run a whole string of good races on fast ground and looks a good candidate to
win another big race this term. Her turn of foot makes her a hard horse to beat
in small fields when she gets the firm ground she needs.
ALBERTINELLI IS PATTERN CLASS
ALBERTINELLI (36) won a mile maiden at the Curragh on his
racecourse debut in very good time. Strangely for a Coolmore horse he does not
hold any Group race entries. But he certainly belongs in at least Listed class
according to my speed ratings and looks a very interesting prospect.
KEMPES KEEPS ON WINNING
It's always hard to tell just how fast a horse is until it
loses, especially when it only seems to do enough to win. So I'm wary of saying
that the speed rating I awarded KEMPES (36) for his third win in a row at
Fairyhouse marks the limit of his abilities. He really could be anything.
Certainly I'd be interested in his chances in a good handicap or Listed race.
Below that level I wouldn't want to oppose him.
ZACHAROVA IS PATTERN CLASS
ZACHAROVA (37) has clearly improved a great deal from two
to three. He's also remarkably versatile. He took a Curragh handicap on
desperately heavy ground on his seasonal debut and followed up by winning on
lightning fast ground at Leopardstown. He won by several lengths each time. And
that's no surprise as he's a pattern class performer according to my speed
ratings.
It's hard to tell at this stage just how fast Zacharova is
as he has won his two 2006 starts easily. But he is at least Listed class on
this run and might well be Group class. He followed up with another win at Naas
on Monday and is going to be tough to beat in the near future.
SNAEFELL IS SMART
SNAEFELL (36) won a juvenile maiden in unusually fast time
despite apparently spooking at the crowd near the finish. He's clearly held in
high regard by his connections who have him entered up in several Group races.
My speed ratings say they're right as I rate him the joint fastest two year old
we've seen in Ireland so far this term.
Runner-up MOVERA (36) is bred to go longer and looks a very
promising filly. She should have no trouble breaking her maiden and has a real
shot of earning black type after that, almost certainly at a longer distance.
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