NORTH LODGE BOUNCES BACK

NORTH LODGE (36) was a smart Group racer on the flat in Germany and he bounced back to something near his best to take an unusually good 42-70 handicap at Leopardstown.

It now looks very likely that North Lodge is best at 9-11 furlongs on the flat and only gets two miles over hurdles on fast ground. He's insanely well handicapped at present and looks likely to win at least a couple more times in the near future.

Runner up DANE BLUE (36) showed improved form, presumably due to the soft ground. She has only one eye, her right one, so I suspect she'll prefer a right handed track. Certainly she should be winning soon.

THOUGHTLESS MOMENT CAN WIN A PATTERN RACE

THOUGHTLESS MOMENT (37) ran a very fast time to take a maiden race at Leopardstown by over two lengths from the useful Akua'Ba (34). Trainer Dermot Weld said she appreciated the cut in the ground and I'd bet on him steering her towards success in pattern company on such going before the season is out.

NICK'S NIKITA IS SMART

There are an unusual number of good middle distance fillies around in Ireland this year. And several of them met in the Group 3 Noblesse Stakes at Cork.

The winner was NICK'S NIKITA (39) who ran the fastest time over the course and distance in the last 11 years and probably ever.

Clearly Nick's Nikita is a smart filly on fast ground. She's won four of her last six starts on good or faster ground. Her two losses were close up finishes behind Dylan Thomas and Four Sins, a filly that just looks better and better.

Runner up ATHENIAN WAY (38) is a stablemate of Four Sins and like that filly is entered in the Irish Oaks. She's improved every time she's been stepped up in distance and deserves a shot at the Classic.

WANNABE POSH (38) ran her best ever race to take third. Her trainer says she has nothing but stamina, so I'd say the strong pace helped her here. This being so the Park Hill Stakes now looks to be her logical target.

DOWNTOWN (37) lost her place then rallied to finish a good fourth, equaling the speed rating I'd given her on her previous start. She too looks a Park Hill type, though I wouldn't entirely discount her chances in the Irish Oaks either.

CROSSING CAN WIN A LISTED RACE

CROSSING (37) started off her career winning two Bumper races. But she's improved markedly since cutting back to shorter distances on the flat. In fact she's been almost boringly consistent.

Last week Crossing won a hot handicap at Leopardstown in pattern class time. It was her fourth win in six tries at 8-10 furlongs. She won the race off an official mark of 93. So the logical move now is surely to have a shot of winning some black type with her while the fast ground she seems to need prevails.

Off this run Crossing would probably be one of the fastest horses in the line up in any Listed race for fillies and mares she contests.

Runner up SUMMER MAGIC (37) only just went under and must surely be given a shot at Listed company too seeing that she's in foal and can only have one or two more runs in her. She'd have been winning for the third time in a row if the photo had gone the other way and does seem to provide more evidence that mares in foal show improved form.

KING OF TORY (37) lost a claiming race on his first start for new trainer Edward Lynam. But since then he's shown much better form, earning Listed class speed ratings in four of his subsequent five races. The only time he didn't was when he ran over six furlongs which looks too short for him. He ran third in a three way photo here and looks set to add another Premier Handicap win to the one he scored last September.

TAX FREE LOOKS BEST IN SMALL FIELDS

TAX FREE (39) ran the fastest time recorded over five furlongs at Naas in the last eleven years by three fifths of a second on supposedly good to soft ground. The going was clearly fast and the time may well have been a track record. But we will never know because track records are not kept in Ireland except at the Curragh.

This run wasn't quite fast enough to give Tax Free a serious shot of winning the Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. And I'm now inclined to believe he's not suited by the big field he'll likely meet in that race anyhow. Since stepping up to Group company tax free has won five times out of five in fields of 11 or less and lost all eight times he's encountered bigger fields.

Runner-up DANDY MAN (37) looks a far better candidate for Kings Stand, a race in which he finished a close fourth as a three year old last year. This was a very satisfactory run for a prep race off a six week break. I've no doubt he'll be going close in top sprints again in future. Indeed he has previously run fast enough to take a Group 1 and will surely do so eventually when he gets the fast ground he needs.

VISION OF GRANDEUR JUST GETS BETTER AND BETTER

VISION OF GRANDEUR (37) romped home the first two times he ran beyond a mile and made it three in a row when blasting clear by six lengths in a rather hot handicap at Roscommon.

My speed ratings indicate that Vision Of Grandeur should now step up to pattern company. This is fortunate as his official mark is now pushing the outer limits of eligibility for handicaps. I'd give him a serious shot of taking a Listed race.

BIG RUN BY MISS GORICA

MISS GORICA (36) blasted home in Listed class time to take a 7f Leopardstown 3YO handicap by five lengths.

It's hard to be certain about what an unexposed horse such as Miss Gorica wants. But the dam's side of her pedigree says very strongly that seven furlongs on fast ground are always going to be her optimum circumstances. She may or may not be effective at a mile and also on tight tracks. So far she's won two out of two on galloping tracks at seven furlongs on fast ground. If this continues to be her preference then she'll be rather hard to place despite her superior ability. Nonetheless with the ground drying up I have my eye on her to follow up this win and also earn some black type if a suitable race can be found.

DID YEATS BLOW HIS GOLD CUP CHANCE WITH THIS WIN?

When you make speed ratings you tend to look at a horse's form differently to most people. And when I look at the form of last week's Saval Beg winner YEATS (37) I see something that makes me worry about his chances of pulling off a double in the Ascot Gold Cup next month. It's a relatively rare pattern to his speed ratings that I've seen before: He seems incapable of running a slow race.

A few years ago a brilliant three mile chaser called Black Humour first alerted me to what happens when a horse always runs fast. He would win by a street and earn speed ratings as big as any chaser when fresh but would perform miles below form when he wasn't. A fast race really takes it out of a horse, especially at a long distance. They need time to recover.

Horses of this type invariably run to what I call the rest pattern. That is they're good for their first two starts of the season but then need a break of at least five weeks between their races thereafter in order to run well again.

In this regard it's interesting to note that trainer Aiden O'Brien talked about Yeats needing a rest after he lost the Irish St Leger last year. It is also interesting to note that O'Brien did indeed rest Yeats after that race and has kept him fresh by running him to the rest pattern for all of his lifetime starts except one. This was when he ran by far his worst race to get beat 20 lengths in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.

So far Yeats has won eight times out of nine on his first two starts of the season and lost all five of his later runs. He's now had two runs this season and there's only 23 days to his date with destiny in the Ascot Gold Cup. So although it might seem silly to oppose him after his impressive six length romp in the Saval Beg Stakes I will be doing so with some confidence.