IRELAND JUNE 2008

AGENT OF CHANGE COULD BE GROUP 1 CLASS

The leaders went off too fast in the seven furlong maiden won by AGENT OF CHANGE (33) at Leopardstown. They actually covered the first half mile in exactly the same time that they took in the Group 3 for older horses on the same card. As a result the pace collapsed and the final time was slower than it would have been in a more evenly run race. I've adjusted the rating to reflect this.

Agent Of Change looked likely to win by a couple of lengths as he moved smoothly through to pick up the front runners halfway up the straight. But he'd stayed only two to three lengths off the furious early gallop and this is almost certainly what caused him to tire in the closing stages and only just be able to hold off the runner up ALYAZWA (33).

On his racecourse debut Agent Of Change almost certainly found the six furlongs too short for him. He's bred for every inch of a mile and may well stay ten furlongs. His sire Cherokee Run is renowned for winning the Breeders' Cup Sprint. But he was really a manufactured sprinter and had the build of a ten furlong horse. Indeed he won and ran well in several big races over 9-10 furlongs, including running second in the Preakness Stakes. Agent Of Change's dam won the Golden Triangle Stakes at Delta Downs over a mile (she has no other foals so far). So there's stamina for beyond sprint trips on both sides of the pedigree.

Agent Of Change is a muscular, mature, classy looking sort who, not surprisingly, has the build of an 8-10 furlong horse. He had to be hustled for the first furlong to go with the strong early pace but stuck with it fairly comfortably thereafter. This leads me to believe that he will have the pace to be effective at the same distance of seven furlongs in a more normally run race. Clearly though he should do better over a mile.

I would not be at all surprised if Agent Of Change improved markedly on this effort and proved to be Group 1 class.

Alyazwa benefited by coming from well off the searching early pace. He finished strongly and very nearly got by the winner. He also looks built for a mile plus. This was a tremendous effort by a debutante. He's entered up in the Railway and National Stakes and should prove competitive in Group company. Meanwhile a maiden looks a formality.

CUIS GHAIRE A FUTURE STAR

A filly that is built and bred for ten furlongs has no business running as fast as CUIS GHAIRE (37) did when winning the Swordlestown Sprint Stakes. But this remarkable filly probably ran the fastest ever six furlongs by a two year old at Naas when winning the big race. (My records only go back twelve years, and her time ranks as the fastest of 88 races for two year olds run over the course and distance in that period).

The amazing thing about Cuis Ghaire's performance is that she was so much faster than her rivals she was able to make all the running - even though she visibly got stronger as the race progressed.

Cuis Ghaire ran the last three furlongs a whopping 1.5 seconds faster than the three year olds in the handicap over the same trip. And she even ran a tenth of a second faster over the final three furlongs than the high class older sprinter Tax Free when he won the big Listed race over five furlongs in the previous race. If I use the formula I devised for adjusting the times of slow run two year races based on pace I come up with a stratospheric rating of 41 for Cuis Ghaire's effort here. I haven't adjusted the rating because the race was true run, but I suspect Cuis Ghaire probably will be able to hit that sort of number over seven furlongs or a mile.

Approaching the final furlong there were a few strides when Cuis Ghaire had to be ridden along. But then her stamina really kicked in and she powered away to win by nearly four lengths. She was moving strongly and easily at the finish and had her ears pricked. In fact she was moving so strongly it took her jockey a good deal longer to pull her up than any of the other runners.

If Cuis Ghaire can clock a Group class time over this short a trip she's got to be something special when she tackles the seven furlongs of the Moyglare Stud Stakes. And when she runs over a mile and ten furlongs later on she is surely going to be very hard to beat indeed.

Perhaps something will have the legs of Cuis Ghaire over the easier six furlongs in the Railway Stakes next time. But having seen this performance I have to say I'd be worried about betting any two year old to beat her over any distance - even five furlongs.

I realize the 1000 Guineas is a long way off. But the 25-1 being offered by William Hill about Cuis Ghaire winning that race looks way too big to me. This is a very special filly in my opinion, one that looks as though she could be just as good as her illustrious stablemate Finsceal Beo.

Distances tend to get amplified in very competitive races like this, and there were indeed big gaps between the finishers here. So I suspect the runner up MARQUESA (32) would have earned a bigger speed rating in a normal race of this grade. I'd bet on her being Listed class. Certainly she looks a slam dunk to take a maiden soon. She has the build to appreciate a step up to seven furlongs or maybe even a mile in time and was keeping on strongly at the finish here.

I had thought that COOL TARIFA (21) would be a big player in this race. But she'd been off since March and ran like a horse that needed the run. She was very slow into her stride, raced keenly and then tired badly in the last furlong - all things that horses typically do when they're in need of a run. It was notable though that she made a pretty big move to move into a close fourth just under two furlongs out before looking to blow up through lack of fitness. I'd bet on her improving markedly on this effort next time.

TAX FREE STILL ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE IN SMALL FIELDS ON FAST GROUND

TAX FREE (40) has now run eight times on ground I rate faster than yielding in fields of eleven or less and won every single time. His latest success came in the Naas Sprint Stakes where he showed he's as good as ever by driving clear in the last furlong off a very strong early pace.

Group sprints in Britain tend to attract fields that are too big for Tax Free. But those in Ireland and France don't. So it's a smart move for trainer Dandy Nicholls to say he now intends aiming Tax Free primarily at Irish and French sprints for the remainder of the season. When he gets his ground and a small field I wouldn't oppose him.

BUSHRANGER IS GROUP CLASS

I don't know why NUBAR LADY (35) ran below form in the Marble Hill Stakes. But she ran her third big race in four starts when just failing to hold off BUSHRANGER (35) in a hot two year old Conditions race at Tipperary. She set the pace and came clear with the winner as they dueled through the last furlong.

I have a slight concern that Nubar Lady's two best runs have come at her local track and her one poor run came when her road journey involved battling through the Dublin traffic to get to the Curragh. Quite a lot of fillies, especially juveniles, are poor travelers. This makes me a little hesitant about her chances at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle Stakes. But for now I can't say for sure so I must give her a real shot of taking the Windsor Castle Stakes.

The first couple of furlongs in this race were somewhat slow and they accelerated to come home faster from the junction of the courses than they did in the handicap for older horses. I've adjusted my rating to take account of this.

When Nubar Lady picked up the past after a couple of furlongs it caught Bushranger flat footed. He lost ground and had to be driven along for about fifty yards. But he soon picked up again and always looked like he was going to get by the filly when he made his run at her through the last furlong. He was moving strong at the finish and won a bit comfortably in the end. Clearly he's Group class.

Bushranger is a muscular, mature, close-coupled rather classy looking sort that is built for sprint trips. I can't guarantee that he will get six furlongs on looks, so I'd prefer to see him go five furlongs when he steps up to pattern company.

If he does run at Royal Ascot I'd fully expect Bushranger to confirm this form with Nubar Lady. In fact he'd probably be my pick for that race on what he showed here. And even though I have a slight worry about the longer distance, he'd also deserve to be favourite if he took up his engagement in the six furlong Rochestown Stakes.

FIERY LAD CAN WIN A BIG HANDICAP

FIERY LAD (36) clocked close to a Listed class time when winning a fair handicap at Navan with a remarkable burst of speed. His jockey was happy to let him lob along at the back most of the way. Entering the straight there was a wall of horses blocking his way. But he was eventually switched to take a gap and then proceeded to gain the most remarkable amount of ground with incredible speed. He ended up running away from his rivals by five lengths to win full of running.

Fiery Lad might well have won all five times he's run beyond sprint trips but fro getting upset in the stalls and stumbling at the start when a close third last time and losing by a head off a long lay off. His connections regard him as a great jumping prospect and want to sell him for that purpose. This is understandable. Fiery Lad is a big-bodied, deep-chested sort who looks like a serious prospect for the Winter game. But meanwhile he also looks a very interesting proposition for a valuable handicap, perhaps the Ebor or something at the Galway Festival.

Horses with a turn of foot like Fiery Lad tend to be best on a firmer surface. So I'd like to see him prove he can handle yielding or softer ground before betting him on it.

No doubt we'll be seeing Fiery Lad over jumps sooner rather than later. With his size and speed he'd certainly be a very interesting proposition for the Triumph Hurdle. Few juvenile hurdlers have a proper jumping physique. He does, and he also has a combination of stamina and speed that you rarely see in a horse of this type.

DECENT IRISH DERBY TRIAL BY WINCHESTER

Dermot Weld has three of the best middle-distance three year old colts this year. And after the other two, Famous Name and Casual Conquest, got beaten into the places in the French and Epsom Derbies it was the turn of the other member of the trio WINCHESTER (35) to lose a Listed race over ten furlongs at the Curragh.

The race was basically stolen with a clever piece of riding by Sean Levey on Hindu Kush (35). He set a moderate gallop, wound it up slowly from the five furlong mark and then really kicked for home at the three furlong pole. He'd saved so much energy he was able to run the final three furlongs in just 35.4 seconds.

When the winner started his sprint to the line Winchester was about five lengths down, yet he only lost by half a length. That means he came home in something like 34.6 seconds for the last three furlongs which is really flying. Unfortunately a mile and a half horse like Winchester can't really run any faster than that, so it was almost inevitable his run would fall short. Nonetheless he did finish his race out strongly after having to be switched for a run and would undoubtedly have been an impressive winner if the pace had been stronger or the trip had been a mile and a half.

There's no question in my mind that Winchester is built to improve markedly over a mile and a half. He's a scopey, rangy sort that's built for the distance. I don't see this as a disappointing run at all. He still looks a potential Group 1 horse to me. As I see it this was a decent trial for the Irish Derby.

HASANKA AND EZIMA SHOW THEIR CLASS

EZIMA (15) and HASANKA (14) were two of the fastest three year old fillies in Europe last season according to my speed ratings. And they showed they're just as good at four when beating colts to go 1-2 in the Listed Saval Beg Stakes over a mile and three quarters at Leopardstown.

Hasanka had come out narrowly the best in the pair's two previous meetings this time. But here the slow early pace turned things in favour of Ezima who has always had a slightly better turn of foot.

Hasanka struck for home first but was quickly run down and done for finishing speed by Ezima.

Off a stronger pace, and especially on softer ground, I still fancy Hasanka's chances in the Irish St Leger later this year. Meanwhile she's going to be tough to beat against her own sex in Group company.

Ezima actually ran fast enough to win a Group 1 for fillies last year on my ratings. So I'm going to be wary of opposing her whenever she gets the fast ground she seems to need.