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MOSSY GREEN IS SERIOUSLY FAST ON FASTER GROUND
MOSSY GREEN (38) has been jumping like a shaggy dog in his
recent chase starts. But he bounced back to form with a wide margin win in fast
time at Thurles.
The most logical explanation I can come up with for Mossy
Green's in and out form is that he doesn't stay two and a half miles and cannot
jump fences out of soft or heavy ground. If you throw out his runs at two and a
half miles plus and his chase starts on soft or heavy you'll find that he's won
the last six times he's run below Grade 1 class.
Mossy Green has earned some huge speed ratings from me in the
past and is clearly still very smart. I'd like to see him race in something
better over a short trip on fastish ground next time. If he does I'd be wary of
opposing him.
BEAU COLINA IS A SMART NOVICE
BEAU COLINA (37) didn't earn rave reviews for his win at Navan.
But the clock suggests he's actually a very decent chaser in the making.
Beau Colina's trainer, Tony Martin, says that the horse is
still a bit weak and that Cheltenham may come a bit soon for him. That looks
right judged by Beau Colina's form. He seems to be best fresh, so I'd like to
see him put away for five or six weeks now and brought back in a better race.
If he were mine I'd be keeping Beau Colina to handicap rather
than novice company as his official rating massively understates his real
ability.
QUEEN ASTRID STILL THE TOP FEMALE NOVICE
QUEEN ASTRID (37) earned a write up from me when running a
fast time on her hurdling debut. She again deserved mention after demolishing
another field of novices at Limerick on her second start over timber.
Quite how good Queen Astrid will prove to be will only be
discovered when she's pressed by something closer to her own class than she's
met so far. That should happen in the Sun Alliance Hurdle next time out. I
wouldn't like to say she can't win that race. Certainly she deserves to win
something big this season.
PEARLY JACK HAS REAL CHANCE AT CHELTENHAM
PEARLY JACK (37) won an ordinary handicap chase in pattern
class time at Thurles. His trainer, Davy Fitzgerald, says that "his jumping
has been a bit novicey". So I think it's fair to say that if he'd jumped as
well as he did this time he would have turned his two recent half length and
head losses into victories - meaning he should have now won five of his last six
starts.
Pearly Jack has shown unusual improvement in his speed ratings
since switching to chasing (which Fitzgerald maintained all along was going to
be his game). I suspect this is because his jumping has steadily improved. Quite
how good he'll end up I can't say. What I can say is that if he takes up his
entry in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival he'd have a decent chance on my
ratings. And if he goes for the new Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase he'd probably
be the fastest or joint fastest runner in the race on the clock. In either race
he'd likely get in with a low weight, seeing that he ran off an official mark of
just 111 here.
Runner-up RANDWICK ROAR (36) has run a pattern class time
before but just keeps on bumping into high class rivals in everyday contests. As
a result he has lost all five of his chase starts to date even though he's much
faster than the average novice chase winner. He showed what he could do to the
kind of rivals he'd normally face at this sort of level by pulling twenty
lengths clear of the third and wi'll surely be placed to win soon.
IMPARTIAL IS PATTERN CLASS
Hurdles debutantes don't normally run as fast as IMPARTIAL
(37) did at Thurles. His win didn't prompt any big write-ups and was achieved in
a non-descript race, so I can see him starting at a fair price against better
opposition next time. He certainly looks worth following because this was a
pattern class performance on the clock, and one of the best by a juvenile that
we've seen this season.
Runner-up HURRICANE ALLEY (35) also ran a pattern class time
for a juvenile hurdler. And he too was making his hurdling debut. I wouldn't
oppose him next time out unless he runs in a Graded contest.
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