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COOLDINE JUST KEEPS ON WINNING COOLDINE (27) ran a slow time but impressed me more than in his four previous wins when taking the big Grade 2 Novice Hurdle over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse. It looked like the leader CHASING CARS (27) was setting a pretty good pace up front. But it turns out he was actually going a bit slower than required to clock a decent time. So he had plenty left in the tank when Cooldine came up to head him off entering the straight. As a result Chasing Cars was able to stage a rally and get back in front which meant Cooldine had to produce a second run to get by him again which he did so readily. This run tells me that Cooldine has actually been winning his races with even more in hand than it looks. It also suggests he’s not just a big one-paced chasing sort. He can produce a pretty nifty bit of acceleration if he has to. Clearly Cooldine stays all day. So a step up to three miles at the Punchestown Festival won’t come amiss. Even if he takes on experienced rivals I’ll be considering his chance carefully if he gets the cut in the ground he needs. Chasing Cars is also looking like a very nice prospect following this run. Like the winner he’s clearly built for chasing. He’s won by a dozen lengths when stepped up to two and a half miles on his previous run and looks capable of winning in pattern company over this sort of trip.
DOES IN THE LOOP NEED A SMALL FIELD? IN THE LOOP (37) beat the two Grand National entrants DUN DOIRE (36) and POINT BARROW (34) in the Tennent’s No.1 Chase at Down Royal. And he’s clearly a useful horse. But right now he does seem a little hard to read. My best guess is that In The Loop is at his best when he’s not crowded at a fence. I say this because his trainer explained his poor run in a big field in the Ulster National by saying he ‘lacked confidence’. This coupled with In The Loop’s comparative record in big and small fields makes me think the small field at Down Royal helped him greatly. In The Loop has won two of the last three times he’s run in fields of ten or less when you include his point to point form. He did win in a big field once but only four other horses finished. And he did run a very big race to finish second to the smart Agus Vic (also at Down Royal) in another big field. That day though he stayed out of trouble by making the running. I don’t want to be too dogmatic about a horse that’s only had a limited number of runs under rules. But right now I’m going to favour In The Loop when he runs in small fields and oppose him when he doesn’t. This means I’ll be siding against him in the Scottish National. Still he’s clearly smart and looks worth following. Dun Doire ran a very decent prep for the Grand National here and will merit serious consideration on the big day. But I don’t like the fact that Point Barrow reportedly ‘gurgled’. A horse has got to be clean winded to win a Grand National. Maybe he only gurgled because he got tired on the heavy ground like his trainer suggested. But I’m now getting concerned that he hasn’t won or shown his best form in over a year.
PRINCE OF LEISURE LOOKS INTERESTING PRINCE OF LESIURE (37) probably did his handicap mark no good when bolting up by 23 lengths on his first start under rules at Down Royal. But he clocked a good time and looks capable of winning something decent. He’s now won three of his five completed starts when you include his point to point form. And one of his two losses was a close third to the smart Snowy Morning. He’d been off for two years before this year and has now won both his comeback runs, the other one being a point to point at Rathcannon where he ran the joint fastest time of the day on a nine race card. I’ll be interested in Prince Of Leisure’s chances if he turns out at the Punchestown Festival, whether it’s in a novice, hunter or handicap chase.
CAILIN ALAINN AS GOOD AS EVER CAILIN ALAINN (38) and ALEXANDER TAIPAN (37) dueled over the last few fences while pulling clear of their rivals in the way only high class horses can do at Thurles. Cailin Alainn won the race and has now scored the last six times she's run two and a quarter miles or more. She's almost certainly a bit better over longer. But this run showed she can be effective over shorter trips. Whether she stays over fences or reverts to hurdles this admirable mare is surely going to be winning more Graded races soon. If this close finish and another one had gone the other way and he'd not tipped up twice it's perfectly possible that Alexander Taipan would have won all six times he's run beyond two miles over fences. He turned in a classy looking effort here and is surely going to win something decent now that he's back over the bigger jumps.
COOLDINE DOES IT AGAIN COOLDINE (37) duly won the Grade 2 Michael Purcell Memorial Novice Hurdle at Thurles. The run confirmed that he's a smart horse when he gets cut in the ground. He has now won six of the seven times he's run on ground softer than yielding. He actually ran a bit quicker last time but wasn't that hard pressed to score by a big margin here. If the ground stays soft for Punchestown Cooldine has to be considered for any of the big staying hurdles he gets entered for, even if it's not against novices. But of course it's obvious that chasing will be his real game next term.
HARCHIBALD THE ONE TO BEAT IN CHAMPION HURDLE HARCHIBALD (37) is one of the best hurdlers never to win a Champion Hurdle. But I've felt for a long time that this is the season he's going to put that right. And nothing he did at Dundalk last week changed my mind. In a race that developed into a flat out sprint finish Harchibald's turn of foot proved decisive once more and he beat a very good field indeed. The angle on the video makes it hard to judge just when the field passed the two furlong marker, but my best shot is that they ran the last two furlongs in around 23.4 seconds, which is significantly quicker than in any other race on the card, and really flying for the end of twelve furlongs. In a more strongly run race lines of form suggest the winner would have earned a rating of around 39 from me. As everyone knows, the trick with Harchibald is to find cover and deliver him as late as possible. He eases himself up very soon after he hits the front. Here the bunch finish suited Harchibald perfectly. But in very small fields he's always going to have a big problem finding the cover he needs. This is undoubtedly why he has won just one of the last eleven times he's run in fields of six or less but scored nine of the last thirteen times he's encountered a larger number of runners. One of his most recent losses in a big field came when he led two out which is clearly way too early. Two others were in photo finishes, one over an inadequate 11 furlongs. Basically in a big field Harchibald is very hard to beat. He's run faster than any rival he'll meet at Cheltenham barring Straw Bear who needs softer ground. As I see it he is the one they all have to beat. EMMPAT (36) looked like a good thing to me before the race as he is a seriously good horse on fast turf or Polytrack. But he found it hard to gain ground into the rapidly accelerating pace, so he did well to take second. There was no official time taken for his race when Emmpat won at Dundalk before. So I went back and checked and found that he actually took 2.3 seconds less than the other winner over the same trip on the card. This means he merits a Group class speed rating from me for the effort. The form of that race could not have worked out better. The runner up went on to win a valuable handicap at Ascot. The third proceeded to take two Listed races. And a whole bunch of horses that finished further back went on to win or place in good company. Prior to this run Emmpat had won six of the most recent seven times he'd run two miles or less on Polytrack or on going with the word 'firm' in the official going description. He's a seriously good horse both on the flat and over hurdles that's clearly been saved for a Spring campaign. I'd consider him seriously for either the Winter Derby or the County Hurdle. Though my gut feel is that he's at his very best over hurdles on a relatively flat track outside of handicap company. So a repeat in the Scottish Champion Hurdle or a win at Aintree look most likely to me. KALDERON (36) finished best of all to take third. It's hard to get away from the idea that he's best on tight tracks. After all he's now won ten of the last fifteen times he's run on courses with a circumference of ten furlongs or less but lost all seventeen times he's run on bigger ones. I don't know whether Aintree will prove tight enough for Kalderon. But that looks to be the place to bet him if he ends up there. He's earned speed ratings around 40 from me several times on tight courses and that's good enough to win a Grade 2 or even a weak Grade 1. Kalderon is actually a good-bodied, pretty tall sort. So his connections must surely be thinking of switching him to fences next season. Chase tracks are normally on the inside of chase courses and tighter as a result. In addition the fences form the same sort of brake on speed as tight turns do. So it could well be Kalderon will prove more versatile as to the type of track he runs on over fences. If he does he could well prove to be one of the top novice chasers next season. KEMPES (36) has a huge official handicap rating on the flat and it isn't going to go down following his close up fourth here. So it surely makes sense to switch him to hurdles once the current season is over. He might well be a pattern class novice hurdler next term. BOBS PRIDE (35) earned a speed rating of 40 from me over hurdles last Spring and signaled that he's going to be hard to beat over timber next time with a close up fifth here. It looks like he's best on fast ground nowadays and hits his peak when fresh in the Spring and Autumn. That makes him look awfully interesting for the County Hurdle.
PERCE ROCK A SMART TWO MILE CHASER PERCE ROCK (40) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a novice chaser this season when winning at Navan in December. And he ran almost as fast when taking a hot novice chase at Leopardstown last Sunday. In between the two runs he's fallen twice. But one of those falls was simply due to the fact he tired when running too far. The other was just one of those things that novices can do. Here Perce Rock showed no major problems with his jumping except for a bit of what looked to me like laziness at the fourth and again three out. At both those fences he didn't seem to make much effort on taking off and ended up hitting them, losing ground each time. However Perce Rock showed that he really can jump well when his jockey booted him into the last two which he cleared with style. Seeing how strongly he was traveling at the finish it's tempting to believe that Perce Rock will stay two and a half miles. But we know from his previous run that's unlikely to happen. Clearly this good-bodied, classy sort is an out and out two mile chaser, and one of the best in training at that. He actually came within a fraction of a second of lowering what was almost certainly the track record set by Mansony. Like almost all top class two mile chasers, Perce Rock is best fresh. His trainer says Cheltenham will come too soon. And I can't say for sure that his intended target, a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse on March 22nd might not also come up a bit quick. The fact that this was Perce Rock's first completed start in twelve weeks persuades me that it should be okay. Thereafter though I'd like to see him rested for at least five weeks which makes the Punchestown Festival appear to come a bit too soon. One good thing this run showed is that Perce Rock can act on the fast ground so many big races are run on. Runner-up LENREY (38) is rather unlucky in that he's begun his chasing career in a vintage season for novice chasers in Ireland. There are many seasons when he would have won all four of his chase starts to date. Instead he's won just the once and finished good seconds to very smart rivals in the other three. Lenrey dueled with the winner from the third last and was only finally bested jumping the final fence. If he were mine I'd be tempted to go down the handicap route with him from now on. This would enable Lenrey to avoid the top class rivals he keeps bumping into in novice events and also exploit what I suspect will be a very lenient handicap mark.
WELL TUTORED BEST ON FASTER GROUND WELL TUTORED (37) won a good handicap chase at Leopardstown last Sunday in decent time. My read of his form is that he cannot handle really soft or heavy ground but is very consistent on anything quicker. The going allowances I make for my speed ratings indicate that Well Tutored has lost on the eight slowest surfaces he's encountered under rules and won four times out of seven on quicker ground. Two of his losses on faster going came in two of Ireland's most valuable chases - the Irish National and Paddy Power Chase. Well Tutored has earned a rating of 38 from me in the past and probably would have done so again here had he not been eased on the run in. I wouldn't dismiss his chances of stepping up a mile in distance to take the Irish National. He's a big, long striding sort whose strong suit looks to be stamina.
RIVER LIANE PROBABLY AS GOOD AS HE LOOKED It's tough to figure out how fast a horse would have run if the early pace had been stronger in a slow run race. But sectional times suggest that RIVER LIANE (30) would probably have clocked a pattern class time if the early pace had been anywhere near decent in the hurdle he won at Leopardstown last Sunday. I say this because in both his race and the one won by Save The Bacon, the early pace was ordinary and both winners made their big move from the second last to the last. A comparison of the times they ran at this stage makes interesting reading. Save The Bacon clocked 30.3 seconds when he broke away from the field with his big move from the second last to the last. River Liane clocked 29.6 seconds for the same part of the race. Save The Bacon then took 13.7 seconds to get from the last to the finish line while River Liane did so in just 12.8 seconds and looked to have a good deal more run left in him as he did so. River Liane ran well against some of the best juvenile hurdlers in France, earning a top speed rating of 35 from me in a handful of starts over there. My gut feel is he could have run 36 or 37 here in a true run race. So I'd say the general belief that he's a blot on the handicap in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham is probably correct. He certainly looked impressive here as he made that sustained burst from two out.
BRAVELY FOUGHT IS PATTERN CLASS Maiden races on Dundalk's Polytrack tend to be pretty hot affairs. So it's not that surprising BRAVELY FOUGHT (37) clocked a pattern class time when winning one over a mile last week. Bravely Fought was always moving strongly and clearly going the best entering the straight. He went clear quickly once shaken up and was still full of run at the line. It's tough to tell that much from one run but Bravely Fought has the build of a ten furlong horse rather than a miler to my eye. Certainly he looked as though he'd have been happy to go another two furlongs at the finish. His pedigree is a bit ambiguous as regards stamina, but I suspect I'm right. If I am I would expect to see Bravely Fought running in the Ballysax Stakes and being a serious contender.
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