MAOINEACH IS SMART

The early pace was slow enough to hurt the final time in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial. But when I take account of the seriously quick final three furlongs (2.1 seconds faster than a decent handicap over the same trip) MAOINEACH (38) merits a speed rating that ranks right up there with the best 1000 Guineas Trial winners in recent years.

Maoineach's victory was a mirror image of her debut win in a Group 3. She was held up at the back and came through with a terrific burst to run down the leaders and win going away while driven out to the line.

Maoineach is not as leggy and immature as she was last season but is still only a medium sized sort. Her physique and pace plus that dreadful run in the Marcel Boussac leave a doubt in my mind about her getting the extra furlong of the Guineas. But clearly she's smart. At some point this season she's likely to win or at least place in a Group 1.

Runner up HEART SHAPED (36) is a long striding sort that's built and bred for longer trips. She proved she stays at least a mile when losing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in a photo but got outpaced by the winner here. She came through strongly from the back to take the lead but Maoineach quickly ran her down. Inside the last furlong jockey Johnny Murtagh saw he couldn't go with the winner and let Heart Shaped coast home.

This was a good effort by Heart Shaped. My feeling is that she'll come on much more for this run than the winner. In addition her stamina will help her improve over the additional furlong of the Guineas. It could be that her lack of acceleration is going to be a problem over a mile. But her trainer, Aidan O'Brien, has shown repeatedly that he can win Guineas with middle distance fillies.

Third placed SMART COCO (36) is a big, strapping filly that looks built for middle distances. She closed strongly to come from seventh a quarter of a mile out and nearly snatch second. She's going to be interesting when she gets the chance to go ten furlongs or more.

EMMPAT ROBBED BY SLOW PACE

It's pretty much impossible for a horse to make up two lengths on a front runner that's been able to go so slow early it can sprint the last two furlongs in just 22.2 seconds. That's the unenviable situation EMMPAT (29) was in against Designated Decoy (29) at Dundalk last week. He tried as hard as he could and closed the gap to a neck at the finish. But he would have had to be Pegasus to get up.

Due to an equipment failure no time was taken for Emmpat's big win at Dundalk a few runs back. So I clocked the time off the video and discovered it was a good Group class performance according to my speed ratings. This is validated by the fact that the runner up went on to win the Group 1 Caulfield Cup while the third took three pattern races and finished second in a Group 2.

Emmpat clearly dislikes the gradients of Galway, a track where he's blanked in eight tries. It also seems clear that he's not at his best at two and a quarter miles plus over hurdles or a mile and a half or more on the flat. Over shorter trips, away from Galway, and on Polytrack or turf with the word 'firm' in the going description he had won seven times out of seven before this narrow loss.

Emmpat has already won the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle and has clearly been kept fresh for another big race campaign on the fast ground that prevails in the Spring. He can beat pretty much anything in his favoured conditions and will surely be placed to win something decent within the next five or six weeks.

2000 GUINEAS TRIAL WAS NOTHING SPECIAL

The Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial has been a graveyard for horses with obviously smart juvenile form like INTENSE FOCUS (33). In the last dozen years nine horses with official ratings higher than 105 had contested it, and all nine lost - at prices as short as 1-4. Intense Focus made it ten when running second at even money in this year's renewal.

I've never been a big fan of Intense Focus. He scrambled home in a positively dreadful renewal of the Dewhurst Stakes and spent most of last season getting beaten by better horses. In fact if two photo finishes had gone the other way he'd still be a maiden after ten lifetime starts. He's never earned anything better than a borderline Listed class speed rating from me.

Here Intense Focus looked like the winner when bursting into the lead early in the straight. But he got caught by RECHARGE (34) who beat him a length, going away, with a bit in hand.

The final time was slow. And despite a much slower early pace they came home three tenths of a second slower than the Fillies in the 1,000 Guineas Trial. This confirms my impression that this was a weak Guineas Trial. I don't see any major upside to any of the horses that contested it.

OH GOODNESS ME, WHAT AN OAKS PROSPECT

I was very excited about the Group 3 Park Express Stakes at the Curragh last Sunday. I thought the mile was a bit too short for long odds on favourite MAD ABOUT YOU (39) and that longshot FIREY RED (39) had a major chance of beating her.

After watching the video of her win at Naas I was convinced Firey Red was a smart filly as she scored well in adverse circumstances. In that race Firey Red broke well and raced like an old hand but steadily lost ground in the early stages, being flat to the boards in an effort to keep up with the leaders in a strongly run contest.

Just after halfway this mature, good looking filly started to move a lot better as her rivals began to tire and steadily worked her way forwards. She challenged the leader about a furlong out and the pair quickly drew clear with Firey Red gaining ground all the way to eventually score narrowly going away with obvious reserves of energy.

It's clear from her physique and the way she ran that a mile, not the six furlongs of her debut race was a better distance for Firey Red. She clocked a borderline Listed class time at Naas on my speed ratings to beat a promising Coolmore colt in Born To Be King that won his only subsequent start in good style and is now entered in a stack of Group 1's.

Sure enough, Firey Red was soon in the lead in the Park Express Stakes. And her rivals let her get away with a pretty ordinary pace to halfway.

When she was asked to quicken up at halfway it looked for a long time that Mad About You was going to get the better of her. Her older stablemate was cruising almost upsides and it looked just a question of when he jockey, Pat Smullen, chose to press the button. But as they got to the final furlong it became apparent that it wasn't going to be easy because Firey Red wasn't stopping even though she'd be under pressure for quite a while. In fact in the last 100 yards the younger filly edged ahead only to get caught on the line by a tremendous surge from

OH GOODNESS ME (39).

After adjusting for the sectional times I rate this a top class performance by Firey Red, one that puts her bang there with all the top candidates for the Irish 1000 Guineas. Her performance also has me very interested in the future prospects of Born To Be King who ran her to a head.

I think this run validated the idea that Mad About You is best over ten furlongs. The application of blinkers enabled her to show enough speed to win over a mile on her previous start. But she'll surely be campaigned over a mile and a quarter for the rest of this season. Over a mile she'll always be in danger of getting done by pacier sorts. There are several big Group 1 races for fillies over a mile and a quarter now and I've little doubt we'll be seeing Mad About You run in all or most of them. Whether she'll win one depends on the strength of this year's three year old fillies as a Group.

The winner Oh Goodness Me looks a terrific Oaks prospect. This good-bodied, deep chested, long striding, classy looking filly appeared to be in a totally unwinnable position as they approached the line because she was a length and a half in arrears of smart rivals that were still running strongly. But she made up the leeway in just eight strides to just edge the photo.

Oh Goodness Me is built and bred for the Oaks trip. So I'd be rather sure her connections will sidestep the Guineas and shoot for Epsom. The concern there will be the long downhill run around Tattenham Corner and the counter-camber that's a feature of the track. Watching Oh Goodness Me use her long, lolloping, lazy stride to such good effect here had me wondering just how she'll stay balanced rounding the long home turn at Epsom. It could be she'll be more suited to the Irish Oaks back at the Curragh. In any event she looks a smart bet to take the Musidora which trainer Jim Bolger touted as her likely Oaks prep. And she seems massively over-priced at 33-1 for the Classic itself.

KING LEDLEY IS GROUP CLASS

You have to be wary of getting over enthusiastic about American bred two year olds that put up big performances early in the season. They enjoy a huge edge in maturity over their European bred counterparts. They've won about 25% of their starts in juvenile maidens in March and April over the last dozen years in Britain and Ireland. By the end of the season their strike rate drops to under 15%. As three year olds they've won 12% of the time in Britain and Ireland in all races. And when they're four and up they've scored just 9% of the time.

Still, even though it's likely his locally bred rivals will catch up to him soon after Royal Ascot, I simply must report on the smart performance of KING LEDLEY (36) in the first two year old race of the season at the Curragh.

King Ledley is a muscular, mature sort, that's pretty tall for a two year old and looks built for around seven furlongs. He broke well and steadily asserted as the pace picked up after they'd run two furlongs, winning by over four lengths.

When I take account of the sectional time King Ledley clocked over the last three furlongs I rate this a solid Group 3 class performance.

I've no doubt that King Ledley will stay six furlongs and that he has a decent shot of getting seven. But it's right now, while the shorter juvenile races are being run, that he should be exploited. His connections will surely want to exploit his obvious maturity.

It normally takes a horse that can hit a rating of around 38 on my scale to win the Coventry. So I suspect King Ledley won't be up to taking that race. But he'll be the one to beat in pretty much any other event he contests before Royal Ascot.

XTRAXTRA (30) ran a terrific race to finish third. He ducked right and lost ground at the start and pulled so hard against the slow early pace that his jockey was nearly standing bolt upright to restrain him. When the pace picked up after two furlongs he was flat to the boards for about fifty yards but then began to run much more smoothly. The trouble is his ears were going this way and that, his head was coming up, he wasn't running straight, and he clearly hadn't a clue about how to race efficiently. So he must have a good deal of talent to pick up ground the way he did in the closing stages, just missing second after being fifth approaching the final furlong.

Xtraxtra has a sprint sire but plenty of stamina on the dam's side (she got the Leger trip and her other foals all seemed to stay a mile and a half). He certainly looks like he's built to get a lot longer than the five furlongs he ran here. I reckon he'll be best suited to seven furlongs or a mile at two and will get ten furlongs, perhaps more next year.

You can burn up a lot of cash betting obviously green youngsters like Xtraxtra, especially when they're racing over inadequate trips. They can take a few runs to get to the point where they're organised enough to win. If he were mine I'd be inclined to lay him off till the seven furlong races start and try to teach him more at home about the starting stalls and being responsive to his jockey.

DEUTSCHLAND UBER ALLES

DEUTSCHLAND (39) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a novice chaser all season when holding the late run of the smart MAJESTIC CONCORDE (38) at Leopardstown.

Jumping well in a strongly run race, Deutschland looked to have a fight on his hands when Majestic Concorde came out of the pack to chase him. But he produced plenty when asked and was always holding his rival through the final 150 yards. He was still moving strongly at the finish.

Deutschland finished a close second to the useful Merchent Paddy over a trip that may well be a bit beyond his best on his chasing debut. He was in the lead and moving well when tipping up on his next two chase starts. So this was just compensation.

I'm going to be wary about opposing Deutschland in novice company. He's clearly a very useful sort that could easily win a big race at one of the Spring Festivals.

The ground was just fast enough for Majestic Concorde to produce his best. He's clearly very useful but my feeling from watching this race is that he's going to prove a bit better over two and a half miles than two. He took a while to get going and a longer trip would probably be helpful.

Seeing how Majestic Concorde's trainer, Dermot Weld, targets the Galway Festival, it's no huge leap to seeing this horse becoming a serious player for the Galway Plate in the Summer.