MIKHAIL GLINKA AND ALFRED NOBEL LOOK SET TO WIN CLASSIC TRIALS

FIRST GROUP

One mile. Slow for first two furlongs, picked up the pace approaching five furlong mark then went racing pace last four furlongs

Time for full mile: 1m 55.3 secs (worth rough speed rating of 6)

Last six furlongs: 1m 25.1 secs (worth rough speed rating of 26)

Last four furlongs: 54.6 secs (worth rough speed rating of 37)

The going was very soft. Speed ratings show the horses were going Listed class pace over the last half mile. They actually looked to quicken a little in the last three furlongs but there was no clear marker for me to clock this.

1 MIKHAIL GLINKA

2nd 0.25 ST NICHOLAS ABBEY

3rd 2.50 FAME AND GLORY

4th 3.25 AGE OF AQUARIUS

5th 4.25 MIDAS TOUCH

6th 6.00 FLYING CROSS

7th 7.00 AT FIRST SIGHT

8th 7.25 DON CARLOS

9th 8.50 BIG OCCASION

10th 9.00 RAIN FOREST

The purpose of this gallop looked to be to test the fitness of Ballydoyle's two Derby prospects MIKHAIL GLINKA (37) and ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (37) - the three year olds in this line up with Group 1 placings to their names. Of the other three year olds in the gallop, only At First Sight (30), Rain Forest (28), Flying Cross (31) and Big Occasion (29) were seriously ridden - and clearly were in there just to ensure a decent test for their stablemates as they were kept bang there within a length of the lead till tiring.

St Nicholas Abbey looked fit and well from what I could see. He was always within half a length of the lead, was ridden along to kick clear at the furlong pole but then could not hold the late rush of Mikhail Glinka who came from the back down the wide outside to show a good turn of foot, moving smoothly while being pushed out.

These two pulled clear of the rest as was clearly the intention. The two older horses both looked backward - especially Fame And Glory (35), but Age Of Aquarius (34) was also sweating so he may be as far off a run as his stable mate.

St Nicholas Abbey is a tall, long striding sort that has yet to fill his frame. He's certainly not suited to a trip as short as the mile of this contest, especially in a sprint finish. And the only other serious horses in this line up were ten furlong plus sorts. So clearly the Guineas is no longer under consideration. I'd still be concerned about such a gangly looking horse negotiating Tattenham Corner.

Mikhail Glinka clearly has a smart turn of foot and has a smooth action that indicates he'll be effective on much faster ground than he had here or when second in that French Group 1. He clearly has a major chance of winning a Derby Trial.

DON CARLOS (30) was never asked for an effort but smoothly made a little late progress. It's worth bearing in mind that he hated heavy ground like this in France and that may well be the reason he wasn't asked to go top speed even in the last half mile.

SECOND GROUP

Time for full seven furlongs: 1m 42.9 seconds (worth speed rating of roughly -2)

Last six furlongs: 1m 25.6 secs (worth rough speed rating of 22)

Last four furlongs: 55.1 secs (worth rough speed rating of 32)

They didn't go off quite as hard in this gallop but once more picked up the pace in the final half mile. It wasn't as good as the other gallop on the clock, but if Alfred Nobel had been allowed his head I dare say he'd have run at least as fast as Mikhail Glinka and St Nicholas Abbey.

1: LORD HIGH ADMIRAL

2: nose FENCING MASTER

3: 1.75 ALFRED NOBEL

4: 2.50 CAPE BLANCO

5: 3.00 BEETHOVEN

6: 4.25 GREATWALLOFCHINA

7: 20.00 AFRICAN CAT

CAPE BLANCO (29) has grown and strengthened up a great deal since last season. He's now a big, rangy, deep chested sort that looks an out and out mile and a half horse that will likely get the St Leger distance. He did carry a fair bit of condition though and looks likely to need his first run.

In the gallop Cape Blanco had to be ridden along to keep up and a bit more vigorously to make ground in the last quarter mile. The Chester Vase or the Lingfield Derby Trial would seem to be his best options as the other Derby Trials over ten furlongs and that's probably going to be too short for him now. I'd like to see him given a run over ten furlongs first to get him in shape.

ALFRED NOBEL (30) lobbed along cruising in last place and surged forward into third without being asked. He would undoubtedly have cruised by the two who finished in front of him if ridden as strongly as them and if this had been a race he'd have been an easy winner. Clearly the remarkable turn of foot he showed when winning the Phoenix Stakes gave him a big edge in this sprint. He has the build of a miler and has already won over seven furlongs, but this performance and that Group 1 win over six furlongs suggest he could well be very decent if cut back to sprinting. Meanwhile I'd be scared of opposing him if he comes out for a seven furlong Guineas Trial.

LORD HIGH ADMIRAL (32) moved next best throughout and came through to win the gallop narrowly. It should be said though that he looked noticeably fitter than the other three year olds so I wouldn't necessarily bet he's a Group 1 horse or better than those that finished behind him here.

The intention was clearly for FENCING MASTER (32) to sweep through from the back to win the gallop handily. He tried that but had to be ridden a bit harder than Lord High Admiral to range almost upsides that one as they crossed the line. My feeling from his physique and watching this performance is that he's more a ten furlong horse than a miler.

BEETHOVEN (29) has grown and muscled up into an attractive specimen over the Winter but is still only a medium sized sort and smaller than his stable mates. He was carrying a fair bit of condition too (though nothing like as much as Cape Blanco). He made a bit of ground late into fourth, not ridden anything like as hard as Cape Blanco but more than Alfred Nobel. I continue to get the impression he'll struggle to win another Group 1.

GREATWALLOFCHINA (27) is a lead horse and AFRICAN CAT (10) a sprinter. They disputed the lead and set the pace for their stable mates as clearly intended before falling away in the closing stages. African Cat clearly didn't get the distance in the ground as he tired rapidly to finish far back.

HAZARAFA IS A GROUP 1 FILLY

One of the things that defines a top class horse is their ability to accelerate so well they're able to clock a fast final time even off a slow early pace.

HAZARAFA (39) did this when winning the hot fillies maiden run over ten furlongs at Leopardstown last Sunday. The pace was visibly slow in her race but she picked up to run the final three furlongs 1.6 seconds quicker than any other winner on the card - despite the fact that three of the other races were sprints and another was over a mile (two of them being Group races).

I have a pretty reliable formula, based on sectional times, for telling roughly what time the winner of a slow run race would have clocked in a true run contest and it points to a proper Group 1 performance by Hazarafa. This is hardly surprising. The three previous winners of the maiden Hazarafa won all went on to run second or third in Group 1 races. In addition the only other fillies maiden run this early in the year at Leopardstown over the last fifteen years went to subsequent Group 1 winner Dimitrova.

Hazarafa lobbed along in second place and quickly pulled away when asked to do so entering the straight. Initially she had to be ridden along to open up a gap and looked a little green and disorganised as she did so. But in the final furlong as her stamina came into play she was moving smoothly away with her jockey only riding her with hands and heels.

Hazarafa is a good sized, mature, slightly awkward shaped filly that clearly has a very decent turn of foot. She's built more for a mile and a half than ten furlongs but is clearly very effective over the shorter distance. This being so I don't think she'll have a problem taking her next target, the Listed Salsabil Stakes, over ten furlongs at Navan later this month.

I don't see any major knee action in Hazarafa's stride. So I don't think she needs soft ground to produce her best. Indeed horses with a turn of foot as good as hers are invariably best on fast ground.

If she were mine I don't think I'd be supplementing Hazarafa for the Oaks at Epsom as her physique and lack of experience might well mean she'd have trouble negotiating Tattenham Corner and the track's counter camber. Her big target just has to be the Irish Oaks. I just wish the bookies were betting ante-post on that race as I reckon she'll have a great chance.

Runner up AWE INSPIRING (35) had no chance of going with the winner after racing prominently, so Johnny Murtagh only rode the Coolmore filly out enough to ensure she secured second place. She's a fairly tall, good looking filly that stayed on well. The high head carriage she showed late in the race was a bit of a turn off, but at this point I think it's best to put it down to greenness, and it could well be corrected with the addition of a sheepskin noseband anyway.

I strongly suspect Awe Inspiring will prove to be Group class and would not be at all surprised if she developed into an Oaks candidate. She needs to go and win a maiden first to gain more experience at the business end of a race. After that though I'd see her as a very decent proposition for an Oaks Trial in Britain.

FIGHTING BRAVE A DECENT GUINEAS PROSPECT

NOLL WOLLOP (38) showed a decent turn of foot to take the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial. He's a decent sized horse with a big stride that's clearly going to stay at least ten furlongs. However I can't quite rate him a Group 1 prospect at this stage.

The horse to take out of the race as I see it is fourth placed FIGHTING BRAVE (33).

Fighting Brave moved smoothly as he rounded the home turn in last position and looked a real threat as he was going so well. But to give him a shot at victory jockey Jamie Heffernan had to stick to the insider path he'd committed too and it was getting awfully crowded. Nonetheless Fighting Brave surged forward until he tried for a gap between his stablemate Black Quartz and the rail at the furlong pole which basically wasn't wide enough. He had to be snatched up dramatically, losing plenty of ground and momentum. It was tremendous that he was able to rally again in the dying strides to be picking up the leaders once more and finish fourth.

The ground was way too soft for a horse with such a good action as Fighting Brave but he would surely have been a decent second but for the interference. On faster ground I can readily see this attractive, athletic horse proving up to Group 1 class over a mile. It's also possible on looks that he'll get ten furlongs.

GLENCOVE MARINA NOW ONE OF THE TOP CHASERS

Left-hand specialist MADE IN TAIPAN (40) loves Navan according to trainer Thomas Mullins. And you can see this from his record. Before he ran in a red hot Grade 3 chase at the course last Saturday Made In Taipan had won two out of three at Navan, with his sole loss being a half length second to the Champion two miler Big Zeb.

For a long way it looked like Made In Taipan was going to make it three out of four at Navan as he cruised along in fifth and sixth place, clearly going better than those ahead of him. But a look back to GLENCOVE MARINA (43) in last place suggested he was going to have a real fight on his hands as that one was going even better while just lobbing along.

Approaching the straight the riders of these two decided it was go time and let their mounts move forward. The most impressive move was made by Glencove Marina who jumped alongside his rival with an enormous leap at the fourth last, gaining a length and a half.

Made In Taipan was the first to get to the head of affairs early in the straight and responded strongly to duel with Glencove Marina when that one challenged. The pair rapidly opened up a huge gap on their smart rivals as they went toe to toe up to the last. There Glencove Marina settled the issue with another enormous leap that saw him gain another length and a half on his rival and land running ahead by that margin which he proceeded to extend to eight lengths by the line by keeping on strongly.

A comparison with the time taken by the useful novice Lilywhitedancer in the novice chase suggests the performance was every bit as good as it looked.

Lilywhitedancer took 4m 5.5 seconds to get from the first jump in his race to the finish.

To put in a performance of equal merit in his half mile longer race Glencove Marina would have needed to run 4m 7.9 seconds from the same fence. In fact he managed it in just 4m 4.0 seconds. This suggests a speed rating of 43, exactly the same figure I get using a line through Made In Taipan.

Before Glencove Marina's enforced lay off trainer Willie Mullins described him as the best he'd had in years. My ratings now suggest he was right.

Glencove Marina is now unbeaten in three completed chase starts and is likely to run in the Grade 1 Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown next time. The big question there will be whether he'll last the three miles.

Glencove Marina tired himself out by pulling when falling at Clonmel last time but it certainly looked like he could have gone on for another half mile here. You can argue the stamina question either way on looks and pedigree. My current feeling is rather more likely to get the distance than not. I'd put it 60-40 on soft ground and 75-25 on good.

We're clearly at the dawn of a new era in steeplechasing with horses like Imperial Commander and Glencove Marina taking over from Denman and Kauto Star. They have a long way to go before matching the achievements of Paul Nicholls brilliant duo but I certainly liked what I saw here.

It's now looking clear that my earlier theory about Made In Taipan needing to be fresh is wrong. A better one is that while he needs to go left-handed he's best on tracks a mile and a half or less in circumference like Navan. He's yet to reach the first three in six chase starts around bigger left-hand ovals. But his eight chase runs around 12f or tighter left-handed ovals bear the closest inspection. He was unlucky to come up against Glencove Marina and Big Zeb, who I rate Ireland's fastest two chasers, when second in two of those eight races. He was also unlucky when looking likely to beat Tranquil Sea in another. One of his other two losses came early in his chasing career when he made a series of jumping errors and ran second to the useful Jayo. The other came when he ran third in the big Grade 1 two mile novice chase at Aintree last year.

Made In Taipan is probably best on soft or heavy ground. With so much rain in the forecast it must be tempting to steer him towards the Melling Chase over two and a half miles at Aintree. He'd have a decent shot there on my ratings.

ZAARITO STARTS TO GET INTERESTING

ZAARITO (39) has been a frustrating horse this season. He's fallen three times and made a mistake at the last when going under by a neck to Captain Cee Bee. In fact, but for jumping errors it's perfectly possible he would have won all six of his starts over fences.

Last week at Naas Zaarito finally got his jumping together when cruising home in a two and a half mile novice chase. Sectional times show that he came home from the first fence in 5 minutes 2.1 seconds. In the big race on the card, the half mile longer Leinster National, they took 5.2 seconds more. When I adjust for the shorter distance Zaarito ran it makes his performance three lengths per mile better. This is pretty darned remarkable seeing how he was allowed to canter home in the closing stages without being asked for any effort at all. He won so full of running it's tempting to speculate just how fast he could have run if pressed.

Certainly Zaarito ranks as one of the top novice chasers on this run and a horse that could well develop into one of the biggest stars of the Winter game.

Seeing that he's rather light framed I suspect that Zaarito is always going to prove best when fresh. But this was his first completed start since December so he'll probably be fresh enough for one more shot at a big race before the season is over. Whatever target is chosen I'd be wary of opposing him.

ARACUARIA STILL HAS A MAJOR CHANCE IN THE CHELTENHAM BUMPER

The form book shows that SHOT FROM THE HIP (34) beat ARAUCARIA (33) in the Bumper at Leopardstown on Sunday. But in reality it was Shot From The Hip's jockey J P Magnier who really determined the outcome with a very shrewd ride.

Magnier must have been aware that the only time Aracauria had been beaten she'd found herself with too much ground to make up in a slow run race. Knowing the mare has a terrific turn of foot, he rode his mount to defuse it. He went along with Sole Witness at a decent clip till around halfway. But as they headed down the half mile stretch on the far side where the hurdlers jump four obstacles he eased off on Shot From The Hip and allowed his rivals to close down what was a 25 length lead to a couple of lengths. The horse ran that part of the race 2.6 seconds slower than the runners did in the fastest hurdle on the card. And with each hurdle slowing the runners by about 0.7 of a second he actually went the equivalent of 5.4 seconds slower - which is a massive 10%.

Magnier waited till Shot From The Hip hit the home straight to use the energy his mount had saved and then set him down for a sprint finish. Shot From The Hip fairly flew home full of run, making it near impossible for a late runner like Araucaria to catch him. Strong finishers depend on the leaders tiring in the closing stages to succeed, and Magnier's ride ensured Shot From The Hip was able to quicken rather than decelerate.

The other thing working against Araucaria was the heavy ground. Horses with a serious turn of foot like her invariably need a much faster surface to produce it.

I've little doubt that Araucaria will turn this form around in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. The big field is likely to ensure a searching early pace there and the ground will almost certainly be a whole lot faster.

It is interesting to note that in four of the last five years the top rated horse on Racing Post ratings has won the Cheltenham Festival Bumper (the top rated ran second the other time). Araucaria is level on Racing Post ratings with two other Cheltenham candidates in Don't Turn Back and Drumbalooo. But she'll be top rated thanks to the mares allowance.

HAS TRANQUIL SEA JUST BLOWN HIS RYNAIR CHANCES?

The Newlands Chase has improved in quality over the last fifteen years, from a handicap to a Listed Conditions race and more recently to a Grade 2. So it makes sense that the stats have evolved as the event has attracted steadily better quality runners.

This being so I wouldn't want to go back that far when looking for strong trends. But you don't have to. From 2002 a very strong trend towards more lightly raced winners has emerged.

If you had bet the runner with twelve or fewer previous chase starts that earned the biggest Racing Post rating last time out you'd have done amazingly well, as you can see from the results for such horses below;

2009 Carthalawn WON 6-1

2008 Maralan WON 14-1

2007 Nickname WON 1-4

2006 Sir Oj WON 5-1

2005 Central House WON 4-7

2004 Native Scout second

2003 no qualifiers

2002 Knife Edge WON 4-5

There's not much doubt Native Scout would have won in 2004 if the ground hadn't been too fast for him. But even with his loss these stats are pretty amazing. Six outright winners from seven is something you rarely see from stats alone.

This year the stats identified TRANQUIL SEA (39) as the most likely winner. Sure enough, he sat behind a strong pace and came through to win the race comfortably, while still moving strong at the finish.

I have to say that with Cheltenham just three weeks away I was rather surprised to see Tranquil Sea lining up for this. Like most high class short distance chasers Tranquil Sea seems best fresh. His best runs over fences have come on his first two starts of the season or with a five week plus break thereafter. It could be his connections believe he needs softer ground than he's likely to get at Cheltenham to cushion his heavy frame when landing over fences, so they shot for a race they knew he could win here instead of keeping him fresh for a race they feel he cannot win due to the likely ground.

Of course I could be wrong about Tranquil Sea's need for softer ground and breaks between his runs. But I'll be looking elsewhere for the winner of the Ryanair now.

The other really interesting performance in the race was put up by fourth placed MADE IN TAIPAN (37). He seemed to confirm a new theory I've developed about him by leading or disputing the lead till tiring on the run in

My new theory stems from a statement made by Made In Taipan's trainer that "he loves Naas."

Naas is an undulating left-handed track that is a mile and a half in circumference.

All Made In Taipan's five chase and hurdle wins have been on left handed courses. He jumps that way and actually ran out one time they ran him right-handed. He did win a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown but never seems to show his best on dead flat courses like that. In addition that one win at Leopardstown was his sole success in thirteen tries on tracks bigger than a mile and a half in circumference.

It seems to me that Made In Taipan is a free running sort and that this is why he does not last beyond two miles and a furlong. It is also why he needs undulations to break up the gallop and allow him a breather on the downhill sections - and why he doesn't last home on really big, galloping courses like Cheltenham, Leopardstown, Fairyhouse and Punchestown.

So far Made In Taipan has run two miles and a furlong or less seven times on left-handed undulating tracks 12f or less in circumference. He won four of those seven times. One of his losses was a second following six runs close together last term (after which Mullins said he needed a break). Another was a Grade 3 at Naas on his seasonal debut where he looked to be going slightly better than the winner Tranquil Sea and much better than anything else when unseating his rider two out. The other loss was that tremendous half length second to Big Zeb.

Unfortunately if my theory is right Naas and Navan are the only two suitable tracks for Made In Taipan and there aren't any more races for him at either course this season. Perhaps the tight turns of Aintree will be enough to curb his exuberance (he was third in a Grade 1 there last year).

CITIZEN VIC MAY WELL GET THE THREE MILES

I can understand why trainer Willie Mullins considered the RSA Chase for CITIZEN VIC (38) after the gelding won a good 2m 1f chase on soft ground off a scorching early pace at Leopardstown. He swept smoothly up to the tearaway leader two out and went on to score with a bit in reserve. It looked to me that he could very well have gone on for quite a bit longer.

Citizen Vic used to have a problem with being too keen which almost certainly explains why he's lost all five times he's run in fields of seventeen or more but won all five times he's tackled smaller fields. Big fields invariably generate a stronger pace. Mullins says he's settling better now, though I concede the searching pace set by the leader made that a lot easier for him here.

I don't know just how good Citizen Vic will prove to be. But he won a Grade 1 over 2m 5f last time and just keeps on winning.

Runner up SEE U BOB (37) gave the winner a fight till the last hundred yards. Like a lot of two milers he seems best fresh and had won four of the six previous times he'd come into a two mile race off a break of six weeks or more.

After seeing the pace that the mare COSCORRIG (31) set I can understand why she's won two of the three times she's run on tracks less than ten furlongs in circumference but lost all thirteen times she's tackled bigger courses. Her pace makes her hard to catch around tight turning courses.