ARAAFA HARD TO ASSESS

A few years ago someone invented a tube of lights that would illuminate in a computer-controlled sequence alongside a swimming pool. The idea was that a swimmer could keep level with the lights and so pace themselves perfectly. Sometimes I wish they used those lights in horse-races and made it a rule that the runners had to keep up with them. Then we wouldn't have races like the Irish 2000 Guineas where we're left to guess whether the slow final time was caused by a moderate early pace or moderate horses.

I'm inclined to believe that Araafa (31) could have run a good deal quicker if the jockeys hadn't been so cautious about going a strong early pace on the heavy ground. But he's going to have to do a great deal more to win another Group 1 race. I'm not saying he can't. It's just that the data isn't there in his race times yet.

Runner-up George Washington (30) earned rave reviews for his win in the Guineas at Newmarket. But he was the slowest Guineas winner in years according to my speed ratings. Okay you can excuse this loss on the grounds that he's not bred to act on soft going. But it's also possible George Washington's big win knocked the stuffing out of him. In this regard it's worth noting that these days the Newmarket race has a history of knocking the winners off form for months not weeks, if not forever. Twelve of the last thirteen 2000 Guineas winners before George Washington didn't win again till August. Seven never won again. Seeing that he had another hard race here due to the going, I wouldn't be keen on betting George Washington to buck this trend.

Third-placed DECADO (35) was my idea of the winner, and it may well be that he'd have been suited by a stronger early pace. He ran a whole lot faster last time out and it could be he 'bounced' off that run. I'd bet on him improving markedly on this run.

... SO IS NIGHTIME

NIGHTIME (36) sploshed through the mud to take the Irish 1000 Guineas by six lengths. Her time was just okay but it's perfectly possible she could have run faster with more competition. I'm afraid this is one of those situations where we really need to see more before knowing how good she is.

SHEHIRA CONFIRMS SHE'S FAST

I gave SHEHIRA (36) a write up when she ran a fast time to finish second to the equally promising Hovering on her racecourse debut. Now she's gone and run another fast time to run away with a Limerick maiden.

As I mentioned before, Shehira is bred to get further than the mile of this race, and the plan is now apparently to step her up in distance. I see her winning at least a Listed race on what she's shown so far, probably something better than that.

DRAYTON NEEDS TO RUN A BIT QUICKER

Drayton (36) maintained his unbeaten record to take the Listed Isabel Morris Stakes at the Curragh. But I'm a bit concerned he didn't improve on the speed rating he earned from me last time. I'm beginning to think that he's just an early season speedball that will drop off the radar once the better juveniles come along. Maybe I'm wrong, but Drayton now needs to run a bit quicker to make me enthused again.

MOSS VALE SMART IN SMALL FIELDS

MOSS VALE (39) won the Greenlands Stakes in decent time. But I'd only be inclined to follow him in small fields. He won a maiden and a handicap in big fields, but his good form has all been in fields of eleven or less.

Former trainer Barry Hills once said that Moss Vale didn't seem to like Newmarket. This is borne out by the fact that the horse has now lost all 12 times he's raced at the course. He's won four of the last five times he's run in fields of eleven or less elsewhere though and finished a close second in this race last year in the other run.

I have a theory that the runner-up MOSS VALE (38) doesn't quite get six furlongs on soft ground. I think she's best in a six furlong race run on good ground or on soft ground or a stiff track over five. Hopefully she'll have another chance or two to validate my theory before she needs to retire to have the foal she's carrying. She's run a bit faster than this before by my reckoning and should do so again.

MUTAKARRIM AS GOOD AS EVER

I guess I wasn't alone in thinking that MUTAKARRIM (39) had 'gone' before he won a hotly contested Premier handicap at the Curragh last week. After all he'd run unplaced four times in a row and hadn't won in nearly two years. But he showed that, even at nine years of age, he's still as good as ever.

The key to Mutakarrim these days seems to the spacing of his races. It looks like he now needs plenty of racing to get him fit (a common trait with older horses). Specifically it appears he's at his best when his last run was 15 or fewer days ago and his penultimate start was five or fewer weeks before that. He's won six of the last eight times he's had this much recent racing and run very well in his two defeats.

Equally effective over hurdles, fences or on the flat, I'd give Mutakarrim a real chance of achieving his connections' ambition of winning the Galway Plate - IF they can get a couple of quick runs into the old boy before the big race.

Runner-up PRINCESS NALA (37) has now run very well all four times she's had cut in the ground at ten furlongs or more. She's already earned black type by running fourth in a Listed race on ground that was too fast. On softer ground my ratings say she can win a Listed race.

DOLPHIN BAY (37) ran his best ever race to finish third on the softest ground he's ever encountered on the flat. He seems to appreciate a stiff test. If he runs over ten furlongs plus or Naas at Navan or over longer on yielding or softer ground elsewhere I'd say he can win a big handicap like this.

GALATEE IS BRILLIANT

I've been whining about the weakness of the three year old middle distance fillies all season. But now I have to stop because GALATEE (41) has just gone and run monstrously fast to beat a very decent bunch of older fillies in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas. I rated this the fastest performance by a three year old middle distance filly since Ouija Board.

Galatee is now unbeaten in three starts and looks like a good thing on my ratings to make it four in a row in the Irish Oaks next time.

You could argue that there's a concern about the fact Galatee has only raced on soft ground to date and that she's not guaranteed to get the Oaks distance on her pedigree. But I don't have such worries myself.

Let's deal with the going issue first. Galatee's dam, Altana, ran unplaced in her only three starts and hasn't produced any other foals to race yet, so we have to look at her own dam, Albertine, to identify any influences. Here we find that there are several winning half brothers and sisters to Altana, the best of which by far was the hard ground and dirt Group 1 winner Arcangues. Her next best foal was another firm ground Group 1 horse called Agathe. Galatee's sire, Galileo acted on fast ground and his progeny so far show no need for soft. So basically it simply looks to be happenstance that Galatee has run on soft ground so far. She ought to have no trouble adapting to a much firmer surface.

Then there's the stamina issue. Here you could make a case for saying that the dam's side tends to produce ten furlong horses. However, there is one decent mile and a half horse that's been produced by Albertine while Galatee's sire, Galileo has already produced Galient who is looking like a good thing for next month's Queen's Vase over two miles. Besides, any horse that can win a very strongly run race on bottomless ground over a mile and a quarter at Naas should have no trouble at all staying a mile and a half on likely faster ground at the Curragh. In addition there is the Bolger factor to consider. Jim Bolger seems to have a knack of getting his horses to outstay their pedigrees.

Basically Galatee looks bomb-proof. She's a sensationally fast filly - fast enough to beat the colts in Group 1 company. And she has lucked out tremendously by being born into what otherwise looks like one of the weakest crops of three year old middle distance fillies in years.

If she sticks to her own age and sex and isn't asked to race too often I see Galatee remaining unbeaten. But if she's as good as I rate her I dare say her connections are going to be tempted into taking on the boys later in the season - quite possibly in the Arc. That's a tough ask for any three year old filly, especially this year when the French colts have such strength in depth. Still I've got to go with what my ratings say, namely that Galatee is a very fast filly indeed, one that might well win a Group 1 against colts.

HOVERING IS A PATTERN CLASS FILLY

I've noticed that trainers often introduce a smart newcomer in a maiden when they run their best horse early in the season. This was the case with Jim Bolger when he ran his brilliant filly Galatee at Naas. He also had another three year old filly in the maiden that was making it's debut. This was HOVERING (36) who duly scored in decent time.

Hovering's pedigree suggests she'll get longer trips than the mile of the race she won - as does her entry in the upcoming Noblesse Stakes at Cork over a mile and a half.

It's hard to say exactly how good Hovering will prove to be at this early stage. Right now I'd be looking for her to win a Listed race over a longer trip.

Runner-up SHEHIRA (36) was also making her racecourse debut and ran Hovering to a photo. She's very nicely bred, as you'd expect from a filly owned by the Aga Khan. She's the first foal of her dam to race. And her grand-dam was French Oaks winner Shemaka who has had two fillies to race, both of whom won pattern races. Shehira looks likely to add to the black type earned by her family, possibly at ten furlongs rather than the mile of this race.

DYLAN THOMAS WINS A SUB-PAR DERBY TRIAL

There's an interesting stat concerning the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial: 16 of the 18 winners before this year had won at least half their previous starts. The two qualifiers on that angle this year were DYLAN THOMAS (37) and YOUMZAIN (36). They ran first and third and look the two best prospects from the race.

It would have been nice if Dylan Thomas could have run a tad faster. Then again, the Coolmore colts normally improve for their first run, so you could argue he's a serious Derby prospect off this run. But I think that's a bit of a reach. Nonetheless, seeing that he has two half brothers that were hurdlers and another smart Italian sibling that stayed 1m 7f, stamina shouldn't be a problem.

The time of the race suggests this was a sub-par Derby Trial. So does the fact that Mick Channon sent over Youmzain in one of those opportunistic raids he mounts when he reckons an Irish or French pattern race has come up soft.

There were only two previous raids by British horses on the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial in the last 18 years - 1988 and 1989. History showed that those were pretty weak renewals, and I suspect the same will prove true this year.

Youmzain has obvious scope to improve over the extra quarter mile of the Derby. He's already won over 12 furlongs and was staying on well over the last quarter mile. I'd be surprised if either he or the winner were good enough to run better than third or fourth in the big race though.

ADAJAL COULD BE ANYTHING

ADAJAL (36) won a hot little conditions race over a mile at Limerick in Listed class time. he did so despite being unextended. He ran close up in one of the best maidens of last year behind Septimus and won his only other start this season. Basically he could be anything. certainly he's pattern class.

HOW GOOD IS CATCH ME?

The race that CATCH ME won at Tipperary last month is working out incredibly well in terms of the clock. The runner up Menwaal came out to earn a Group class speed rating from me when winning next time. Now the fourth placed EMOTIONAL ARTICLE (36) has earned a Listed class speed rating from me.

Emotional Article and Menwaal look worth following. But Catch Me is now beginning to look like a very serious prospect.

Catch Me beat Night Tango into second when breaking his maiden in Germany, and that one went on to win a Derby Trial next time before running second in the big race itself. He also ran a close third to the useful Day Walker in a fast Listed race at Hamburg, and earned speed ratings as high as 38 (Group 3) from me.

Catch Me is obviously a great hurdling prospect. But I'd like to see him run on the flat a few more times as I suspect he could easily develop into a serious contender for the Irish St Leger.

HUGE RUN BY DECADO

After DECADO (41) won the Tetrach Stakes in freakishly fast time his trainer, Kevin Prendergast, told reporters "he keeps surprising me". That makes two of us because I thought Decado was probably shy of top class following his win in the Loughbrown Stakes on his seasonal debut. But he proved me wrong by running away with the Tetrarch Stakes and earning the biggest speed rating I've given a three year old all season.

This run was definitely fast enough to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. The question is will Decado be able to reproduce it over an extra furlong and on faster ground? So far he's only won over seven furlongs and has raced exclusively on soft ground.

I suspect the going is going to be much more of an issue for Decado than the mile. From a pedigree standpoint it looks like he should have around a 75% chance of handling faster ground - since his dam's two previous foals to race both acted on fast ground and a majority of his sire's offspring did as well. The concern is that it's more than happenstance Decado has run on soft ground all four times he's appeared.

Only time will tell if Decado can run this quick on good ground. Right now all I can say is that he has shown significant improvement on the clock with every single start. He should be able to win a Group 1 race and it may very well be the Irish Guineas. Indeed, looking at my speed ratings, I have to say I'd prefer him at this stage to George Washington.

For a horse by a top class dirt performer out of a top class dirt performer HURRICANE CAT (36) ran a terrific race to finish third on such soft ground (most dirt-bred horses need firm turf). He finished strongly and will surely improve for the run, faster ground and a step up to a mile or perhaps more. Like the winner, I see him as a very interesting candidate for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

MENWAAL IS BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER

MENWAAL (38) ran out a three length winner of a good Cork handicap in Group 3 class time. He's now won the last three times he's run 10-12 furlongs and is surely worth a shot at pattern company.

DRAYTON IS USEFUL

DRAYTON (36) won the Coolmore Stakes for two year olds in decent time. He's won both his starts to date and ran a Group 3 time here. There's usually something around that can run a couple of lengths faster in the Coventry Stakes but outside of that contest I'd be wary of opposing Drayton right now.

Runner-up CHIMES (36) is also pretty smart according to my ratings and should be capable of taking a Listed or Group 3 contest.

POSEIDON ADVENTURE FRANKS FORM OF PRIX LA FORCE

You may recall that the Prix La Force earned a rave review from me a couple of weeks ago. POSEIDON ADVENTURE (37) finished stone last in that race yet he ran away with the Classic trial at Gowran Park in much the fastest time of the day.

Poseidon Adventure may fall a bit short of Classic standard according to my ratings. But he looks worth following. And it's worth noting that his stablemate SEPTIMUS beat him nearly four lengths in the Prix La Force and is already jocked up for the Chester Vase this week.

SIGMA DIGITAL IS A SMART NH RECRUIT

You rarely see any sort of a time in a bumper race. So the decent speed rating that SIGMA DIGITAL (32) earned when winning by six lengths on his racecourse debut at Kilbeggan is worth noting. No doubt we'll be seeing this Noel Meade trained four year old over hurdles soon, and I'd be wary of opposing him.

NOBLE CITY IS GROUP CLASS

My speed ratings say that Ireland is leading the way with two year olds so far this season. NOBLE CITY (35) became another Irish juvenile to post a Group class time when taking a maiden at Navan. She'd got into all sorts of trouble on her debut but had no problems here and won easily.

On pedigree you can make a case for Noble City getting seven furlongs and maybe even a mile. Right now though she doesn't need to stay to win in pattern company at Naas or Cork on her next intended outing.

MISSED THAT IS A STAYER

MISSED THAT (39) has run a bit faster than he did when taking a Grade 2 chase at the Punchestown Festival. But his win still looks highly significant to me as it came over 2m 5f, the longest distance he's ever tried. It now seems clear that the reason he's run below form a few times is that he's not been able to go the pace over trips that were too short for him. His sire and dam have both produced three mile chasers, and it now looks likely they've got another future winner over that sort of trip

Trainer Willie Mullins obviously agrees as he plans to aim Missed That at the French Champion Hurdle over three and a quarter miles. The French jumpers are a weak bunch at distances beyond 2m 5f, so I'd say Muillins has a great shot of winning the big race again. In the longer term it looks like he now has a Gold Cup candidate on his hands.

SLIM PICKINGS (37) ran his best ever race to chase Missed That home. He's improved steadily as his jumping has got better and may well be capable of further improvement when stepped back up to three miles.

WAR OF ATTRITION MAY NEED TO BE FRESH

WAR OF ATTRITION (24) duly followed up his Cheltenham Gold Cup win by taking the Guiness Gold Cup at the Punchestown Festival. He's run a whole lot faster before, but the slow time here was clearly caused by a slow early pace.

I'm increasingly inclined to believe that War Of Attrition is best when fresh. I reckon he runs to what I call the rest pattern. In his case that means he's good on his first two runs of the season but then needs a break of at least 40 days between his starts thereafter. Treat his first two lifetime runs as being required to get him fit, and War Of Attrition's record when fresh in the manner I've just described shows but a single loss in nine tries - and that was a neck defeat by Brave Inca in the Supreme Novices. He's yet to win in six tries when not fresh.

Jockey Timmy Murphy confirmed what my speed ratings have been saying about Beef Or Salmon (23) for quite some time. Namely that he's lost a step or two with age. His connections seem to believe that he'll show his old form on softer ground. I'm not convinced and will continue to oppose Beef Or Salmon at this level.

ONE FOUR SHANNON RUNS BIG

ONE FOUR SHANNON (39) probably broke the course record when winning the Pat Taafe Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival. But all I can say is that it was the fastest time in the last ten years since course records are not kept in Ireland (don't get me started on that subject). In any event he ran a big time and has a terrific record when fresh. He's now won the last three times he's come into a race off a break of six weeks or more. His big target is the Kerry National at Listowel in September. If he's kept fresh for that race I'd be wary of opposing him.

I'M STILL NOT CONVINCED BY ASIAN MAZE

ASIAN MAZE (37) just keeps on winning, and did so again in the Champion Stayers' Hurdle at Punchestown. But she has yet to earn a proper Grade 1 class speed rating from me, so I'm still skeptical about her long term prospects. She had to be ridden out to beat a 100-1 shot this time in Listed class time. I'm going to oppose her again in future even though she beat me this time.