COCKNEY REBEL CAN PROBABLY RUN FASTER

I opposed COCKNEY REBEL (39) with supreme confidence in the Irish 2000 Guineas. There were two good reasons for this. Firstly he hadn't run particularly fast when winning the UK 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Secondly the 2000 Guineas is a tough race that has a history of knocking today's more speedily bred winners off form for months. Thirteen of the last fourteen British 2000 Guineas winners before Cockney Rebel did not win again until August. Seven never won again.

Nonetheless Cockney Rebel emulated Rock Of Gibraltar to win both Guineas. Okay he again did not run tremendously fast. But neither did Rock Of Gibraltar. As with that horse, it is the very fact he was able to win both races that is so impressive. This being so I'm inclined to believe he can a fair bit faster. Maybe he won't emulate Rock Of Gibraltar's subsequent feats, and yes he'll need to run faster to beat older horses in Group 1 company. But I can't go on knocking him after he's done this. I have to believe he can run faster.

WILL FINSCEAL BEO RECOVER?

I 'knew' Finsceal Beo (38) couldn't win the Irish 1000 Guineas following her runs in both the British and French versions of the Classic. In the previous fifteen runnings of the Irish 1000 Guineas there had been 70 (yes seventy) runners that had their last race less than 20 days previously. Not one of these seventy fillies won. Finsceal Beo had run in the French Guineas just 14 days before. The stats seemed to be saying very clearly that she could not have recovered from the effects of the hard race she had there.

Nonetheless Finsceal Beo went and won anyway. However she had another hard race, earning the third big speed rating from me in three weeks.

Maybe Finsceal Beo will prove me wrong again. But I need convincing that a three year old filly can take three huge races like this so close together without being knocked off form for a long time.

Runner-up DIMENTICATA (38) ran a big race and is clearly better over longer than seven furlongs. If two photo finishes had gone the other way she would now have won all three times she's run a mile or more following a recent run.

Dimenticata ran a proper Group 1 time for a three year old filly. She must have a real shot of taking a race at the top level, quite possibly over a mile and a quarter rather than a mile. She finished strongly here and has previously shown that she can go at least nine and a half furlongs despite her speed-laden pedigree.

NOTNOWCATO TOUGH TO BEAT ON YIELDING GROUND

My speed ratings suggest that NOTNOWCATO (40) doesn't actually improve when there's cut in the ground. It's just that there are few horses around who can run up to form slower ground like he can. This is why he has won the last four times he's run on going that I rate slower than good but won just one of the last seven times he's tried a faster surface.

Notnowcato got his ground in the Tattersalls Gold Cup where he just edged out DYLAN THOMAS (40). Unfortunately the ground is rarely anything but fast for the big races during the Summer. So I think we won't be seeing Notnowcato win again for a while.

Clearly Dylan Thomas is nothing like as good on a slow surface like this as he is on fast ground. It's now rather obvious why he only ran fourth in the Juddmonte International last year on yielding ground and also why he ran a clunker on heavy ground as a two year old in the Racing Post Trophy.

On fast ground Dylan Thomas still sets the standard. He is the fastest horse currently racing according to my speed ratings and will be tough to beat whenever the ground is fast.

I had thought YOUMZAIN (37) would be the one to beat. But on reflection it does seem likely that he's best over a mile and a half. He's one of the best horses on the planet at that distance.

DOWNTOWN SHOULD GO FOR RIBBLESDALE

DOWNTOWN (37) earned one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a three year old filly beyond a mile this term when taking a good maiden at Clonmel.

It's hard to tell just how good this regally bred filly is at this stage or what conditions she prefers. All I can say is that if the Ribblesdale were run right now I'd have a hard time finding something to beat her. She should surely go for that race rather than taking up either of her other two Group race engagements in the Noblesse Stakes where she'd face older fillies and mares or the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) where she'd be up against what looks like a hot group of French fillies over a trip that may well prove to be a bit short for her.

WHERE ARE ALL THE FAST TWO YEAR OLDS?

One of the strongest trends so far this season has been the near total absence of fast performances from two year olds. Pencil Hill (32) continued the trend when winning what would in most seasons have been a good Listed race at the Curragh last Saturday.

Jannina and Island Gal’s races have been the only fast ones from two year olds so far this season according to my ratings. And those two are fillies. So it looks very likely that the two year old colts that are going 4to be winning at Royal Ascot next month have either not run yet or have won their only starts so easily they haven’t had to run fast. Therefore I’ll be looking for upsets in the Coventry, the Norfolk, the Chesham and the Windsor Castle Stakes.

FOUR SINS THE ONE TO BEAT IN IRISH OAKS

FOUR SINS (37) put up an impressive performance to win the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in good time. Always going best, she moved clear without much pressure being needed to win with her ears pricked despite running a bit green and drifting off a straight line.

A mature, pretty good-bodied filly, I'd say this run makes Four Sins a tough horse to beat in any middle distance race for three year old fillies. Seeing how she got a case of the wobblies when booting clear I can understand her connections hesitation in nominating the Epsom Oaks as a definite target for her. At this stage of her career I can see her getting unbalanced by the counter camber going down that steep incline at Tattenham Corner. However she is surely the one they all have to beat in the Irish Oaks.

INDIANA GAL AND LIME TREE VALLEY ARE GROUP CLASS

Over the last decade there has been a steady global trend towards good horses being raced less and less often as two year olds. It has got to the point in France where it's now relatively rare for top class horses to have more than a single run right at the tail end of their juvenile season.

Unless the trend is reversed I fear that we're going to see a replication of the French situation in Britain and Ireland.

Last year I only awarded a single juvenile a Group class speed rating in the first few months of the year. And for a while I was worried that I'd simply got the rating wrong as the recipient, Finsceal Beo, lost her next two starts. Though of course she turned things around in no uncertain fashion later on.

This season it has been a similar story. No two year old has much of a time until now. But now, I do finally have one Group class time to report from a juvenile, well two actually. INDIANA GAL (36) and LIME TREE VALLEY (36) both earned very good speed ratings from me when running first and second in a Limerick maiden over an extended seven furlongs.

Indiana Gal's immediate family are all mile and a half plus runners and hurdlers. So it was somewhat surprising she had the pace to win over such a short distance. Her trainer Patrick Martin told reporters that "she's a very big filly and will keep getting stronger as the year goes on". I can certainly see her winning a Group race over a mile later on.

Lime Tree Valley was carrying 13 pounds more than the winner which must have made some difference. He's entered up in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes over six furlongs. But, seeing that he improved so much over the longer trip here and is from a family of eight and ten furlong horses I imagine he'll be sticking to longer distances from now on. He'd obviously be interesting in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Though I rather wonder whether he and the winner might not be put away for a couple of months till more valuable races over longer distances become common.

SOUVENANCE IMPROVES

Before SOUVENANCE (36) ran at Killarney last week her trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, had won with all six horses he'd run in unlisted conditions races in Ireland over the previous eleven years. Souvenance had no problem making it seven out of seven. In doing so she earned the biggest speed rating I've ever given her.

It looks like the extra distance and another year of growth has improved Souvenance. She has some way to go yet to justify her entries in the Irish St leger and the Ascot Gold Cup. But Prescott tends to run very smart, improving horses in Ireland. So I would not discount the possibility that she'll improve enough to be competitive in the big staying races. Certainly she ought to be able to gain that black type win which has eluded her so far now that she's running over longer trips.

ARCHIPENKO: SLOW TIME, FAST FINISH

I wish there was some easy formula that would tell me how fast a slow run race would have been run if the runners had gone a decent gallop. Unfortunately no such formula exists. So I can only report that ARCHIPENKO (24) clocked a very slow final time for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial due to the crawl that the race was run at in the early stages.

However, having played around with the video of the race on www.youtube.com I can tell you that once the runners started sprinting for the line they were really motoring. Archipenko ran the final furlong in a blistering 11.4 seconds while the runner-up YELLOWSTONE (23) powered home in 11.1 seconds.

As the sprint to the line began the horse that looked least likely to be suited to it was Archipenko. His two stablemates, Yellowstone and Macarthur are rather racey looking individuals while Archipenko is a deep chested, strong, stocky sort who clearly wants a mile and a half.

Nonetheless, after Macarthur looked the winner entering the straight, Archipenko quickened up very rapidly to put him away as the sprint began then sustained the burst to hold off Yellowstone’s last furlong charge.

I’d be very doubtful about Yellowstone staying any further than the ten furlongs of this race. But Archipenko is another matter. Despite not having run any sort of a time I’d be rather sure he’s going to prove the best of Aiden O’Brien’s runners at Epsom.

SEPTIMUS LOOKS GOOD FOR THE IRISH LEGER

A few times a season you 'know' that a particular horse just has to win a certain race. This was the case with FRACAS (38) in the recent Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh.

My conclusion was that we'd all been wrong about Fracas. His latest run proved he could handle fast ground perfectly well. In addition it was looking increasingly likely that he didn't really get ten furlongs except on a very tight track.

Before the Mooresbridge Stakes Fracas had won three of the six times he'd run ten furlongs or less or gone 12 furlongs on a tight track. In one of his losses he was fourth in a huge field in the Epsom Derby despite not handling Tattenham Corner. In another he was second in a fast Group 1 off a 14 month lay-off. And in his only other and most recent loss in what look his ideal circumstances he was three lengths second on his seasonal debut to Dylan Thomas who may very well be the top horse in Europe.

That's pretty darned sensational form to bring to the table in a mere Group 3 contest. Unfortunately it wasn't quite good enough to beat SEPTIMUS (39).

I was banging the drum about Septimus in this column last season when he'd run fast in a French Derby trial. He then proceeded to prove me right by romping home in the Dante before getting jarred up in the Dante which brought about an enforced lay-off.

This being so you might think I'd have been scared of Septimus beating Fracas. Not a bit of it. You see, I have a theory about Aiden O'Brien and his older horses. The stats show that over the previous eleven years O'Brien had 35 runners aged four and up in Group 3 and Group 2 races before August and that they'd all lost. This proved to my satisfaction at any rate that Coolmore use such races as preps for Group 1's and that therefore Septimus would undoubtedly blow up through lack of fitness in the closing stages.

The fact that Septimus had previously shown his best form with cut in the ground and always looked more of a twelve furlong horse or a stayer added to my confidence. I just couldn't see him beating Fracas over ten furlongs on fast ground off a lay-off. But of course he did.

This was a huge run by Septimus in unfavourable circumstances. And although he didn't quite run a Group 1 time I've little doubt he is a Group 1 horse.

If he were mine I would avoid the temptation of running Septimus in the Coronation Cup. They got away with racing him on fast ground at the Curragh. But the steep downhill gradient of Tattenham Corner plus its counter camber massively increases the concussion a horse experiences to its front legs. This was enough to jar up Septimus badly enough to require an eleven month lay-off last year and I wouldn't want to bet against a repeat if they ran him there again.

I think the best plan with Septimus will be to go with what sounded like Coolmore's plan A from O'Brien's post-race interview and lay the horse off till the Autumn when softer ground prevails. He could then be brought back to shoot for the Irish St Leger where I'd give him a favourite's chance.

NAVAJO MOON IS PROBABLY GROUP CLASS

NAVAJO MOON (36) won a Gowran Park maiden in a time that suggests she’s capable of winning in at least Listed company. The remarkable thing is that the race was only over a mile and Navajo Moon is a full sister to Irish Derby third Roosevelt and King Edward VII Stakes winner Five Dynasties. In other words she’s bred to go a mile and a half.

Navajo Moon is due to step up to Listed company next time. If the race is over a mile and a quarter or more I would be wary of opposing her at that level as she’s probably Group class over longer trips.

CHEYENNE STAR HAS IMPROVED

CHEYENNE STAR (37) won a good fillies handicap by a wide margin at Gowran Park, earning the biggest speed rating I’ve given her so far - despite the fact she had ten stone to carry. Clearly she has improved a bit from three to four and should now be able to take the Listed prizes that so narrowly eluded her last year.