POWERSCOURT IS A SERIOUS GROUP 1 HORSE

Most pundits were saying that the Tattersalls Gold Cup won by POWERSCOURT (44) at the Curragh was not a true Group 1 race. But the time the Coolmore four year old ran suggests that he is actually the best middle distance horse around. He's won the last three times he's run over 10-12 furlongs and now looks the horse they all have to beat in the Prince Of Wales stakes at Royal Ascot. This was a seriously fast performance. Very few horses have bettered it at ten furlongs or more in recent years.

LIVADIYA (39), the runner-up, provides the basis for knocking the form. Many people would consider her to be little better than a handicapper. But in fact Livadiya has put up some smart Group class times during her lengthy career in France, America and Britain. She'd run second over a mile to another Group 1 horse the previous day in Russian Rhythm and is clearly as good as ever.

In fact Livadiya's optimum distance would seem to lie in between the eight and ten furlongs of her two big races last weekend. Over eight and a half to nine and a half furlongs she's won six times out of ten and finished a close second on two occasions. But for a neck defeat in one French race, she would now have won over this sort of trip in France, America and Ireland. I note with interest that the upcoming Budweiser International at the Curragh is run over nine furlongs. I'd like to see Livadiya given a shot at that.

Course specialist NYSAEAN (39) ran right up to form according to my estimates. My read of his form is that he's best on dead flat right handed tracks with easy turns. He'd won five times out of six on such tracks before this race. The sole loss came at this course in the Irish Derby when he failed to stay twelve furlongs. You may recall that Nysaean moved up going awfully well with two furlongs to go in that race and looked to be going better than the eventual winner High Chaparral.

Richard Hannon says that Nysaean has matured this year. The fact the the horse now seems able to handle fast ground suggests he's right. It could be that he'll be able to stay a mile and a half now too. I look forward to getting some nice odds about Nysaean next time he runs in his favored circumstances.

Fourth placed NAPPER TANDY (38) is clearly best at ten furlongs but has a bad habit of bumping into Group 1 horses almost every time he tries the distance. He's capable of taking a Group 3 this season.

If the Tattersalls Gold Cup was unexpectedly fast then the Irish Guineas was a miserable abomination of a race if the clock is anything to go by. The winner Bachelor Duke (34) rates as the slowest classic winner I can recall in all my years of following racing. How an ordinary maiden like him came to win a Group 1 is beyond me. He ran exactly the same speed figure when getting hammered in the English 200 Guineas. If the second, third and fourth had run to form he should have been hammered here too. I would oppose him till the cow's come home in Group company from now on.

The Irish 1000 Guineas won by Attraction may have been a better race, but the slow time does not reflect this. It suggests that Attraction was once again allowed an uncontested lead at a soft pace. I confess she proved me wrong by winning here but my gut feel is she won't win again and will be found out over a mile in a more strongly run race.

ONE NIGHT OUT HAS REAL CHANCE IN GALWAY PLATE

The fastest times in Ireland over the past few days have come in national hunt races.

ONE NIGHT OUT (38) actually broke the course record when winning a two and a half mile chase at Punchestown. It looks like he needs a bit of bounce in the ground to jump fences. He's won two of the three times he's run in chases on good or faster ground and run second in a Grade 1 in his sole defeat. He's a useful sort to be racing in the off season and is apparently being aimed at the Galway Plate. If the going comes up fast for that race he'll have a serious chance. It's worth noting that One Night Out would still officially be treated as a novice chaser in Britain. He'd certainly be very interesting if he shipped over for one of the early season Graded novice chases run on fast ground later this year.

Runner up BALLYNATIN ROCK (37) may also need fast ground to clear fences, though this seems less clear from his form. He'd sluiced up by fifteen lengths on his previous start and had to cope with a slipping saddle here. He is apparently going to be kept on the go during the summer and run in handicaps. He ought to win a few.

You don't often see a fast time in a bumper. So although HABIHAT (34) earned a speed figure that wouldn't be worth noting in a novice hurdle at Tipperary I suspect he's capable of running a good deal faster. The race he won featured an unusual number of bumper horses that had clocked good times. I think he's a horse to follow.

SLIP DANCE CAN WIN AGAIN

SLIP DANCE (32) stayed on nicely on her debut, and improved to take a Ballinrobe juvenile maiden in good time. She rates around Listed class on my ratings and must therefore have a major chance of following up this success in her intended target, a winners of one auction race at Fairyhouse in a couple of weeks. Of course, the conditions of that race will exclude the expensively bred youngsters from big stables like Aiden O'Brien's that might otherwise threaten her. From a betting point of view that's rather a shame as she might have gone off at a much better price.

LEITRIM HOUSE HAS BIG CHANCE IN IRISH GUINEAS

Despite being eased up and winning cozily, LEITRIM HOUSE (39) ran only a tick slower than Haafhd did in the 2000 Guineas when taking the Tetrarch stakes at the Curragh. Clearly, he is a serious Group 1 horse. His only defeat in four tries came the only time he didn't race on a fast surface.

When Leitrim House defeated G1 winner Milk It Mick in the big AW 3YO race at Lingfield, I confess I thought Milk It Mick had run below form. Now it appears he was simply up against a very useful horse.

Seeing that he's proven himself on the AW, it would be fascinating to see how Leitrim House would fare against the better US colts on dirt. Hopefully that experiment will be tried at some stage. Meanwhile, as long as the ground remains fast, Leitrim House must have a big chance of taking the Irish 2000 Guineas. Most of the top AW and dirt runners need firm turf to reproduce their best form on grass. So I would bet against Leitrim House with some confidence whenever the going rides anything but the fast side of good.

At the same meeting we may well have seen the Coventry stakes winner in RUSSIAN BLUE (35). He ran about as fast as an early season two year old can and now ranks as the joint best juvenile we've seen so far (with Turnkey - see UK report). Since he's a Coolmore youngster, he probably won't be much of a price for his next target, the Marble Hill stakes on the 22nd of May. But if there's a big field for the Coventry he may offer some value there.

An older horse worth noting is RAIKKONEN (37) who beat a decent field in pretty fast time to take a Clonmel Handicap over two miles. He is apparently to be rested then brought back for the Galway Festival. I'll be interested in his chances whether he sticks to the flat or goes back hurdling there.

Wexford is an unusual place to see a decent horse, but DARABANKA (31) ran a pretty useful speed figure for a three year old filly making her racecourse debut. She won a 1m 5f maiden with her ears pricked and may well be capable of better. John Oxx also won with her half sister on her racecourse debut last year. Hopefully Darabanka will not be like her and fail to see the racecourse again. Her other three half brothers and sisters all got long distances, the most notable of them being Darasim, winner of the Prix Kergorlay and Prix Gladiateur. Long term, if she develops as well as seems possible, the obvious long term target for Darabanka would be the Park Hill stakes at Doncaster's Leger meeting.

RAND COULD STILL BE A CHAMPION

Normally I report on horses that earned really big speed figures in this column. However, I think that one horse which ran last week is worth following because he earned an exceptionally low speed figure. This was RAND (4) who ran a close fourth in a handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival.

Rand was unbeaten in six chase and hurdle starts in New Zealand. He was voted champion New Zealand jumps horse in 2001/2002. He won a chase worth $300,000 in Japan. He won a Grade 1 Chase in America, beating the US champion chaser by ten lengths. And, off a two year lay-off, he romped an Irish chase by six lengths on his only local run before his Punchestown defeat.

If you look at Rand's record you'll notice that he won that big chase in Japan, but when he contested it again the next year he got outpaced when the pace quickened up before staying on late to take third. The slow pace, firm ground and short distance combined to beat him - and I'm convinced the same was true at Punchestown. The speed figure I gave the winner, Junior Fontaine, indicates that the early pace must have been extraordinarily slow for a race run at the minimum distance. The going allowance for the entire meeting indicates that the going was speeding up the horses as much as is possible. In other words it was hard.

Rand's big Grade 1 win in America came over three miles. He is unbeaten in five starts on soft and heavy going. A slow run race at two miles on hard ground is just not going to suit him. He showed that in Japan and he showed it again here.

The popular view seems to be that Rand has 'gone'. But remember, he is not actually a ten year old. He was born in the southern hemisphere so would actually still race as a nine year old in his home country. In addition, he has very few miles on the clock. He's raced just 13 times, winning nine. I say Rand may very well be as good as ever. I also say that he is incredibly well handicapped off his official Irish mark of just 130. He's going to win a big chase in Ireland or Britain unless I'm very much mistaken. And with that crazy official mark of his, it's surely going to be a handicap.

LISCANNOR LAD (39) won the big novices handicap chase at Punchestown in fast time. Interestingly, he remains a novice chaser in Britain, just like last year's winner of this race, Rule Supreme. That one went on to take the Sun Alliance. My speed figures indicate that Liscannor Lad is just about as good. I confess I cannot explain his form. He started off his chasing career with a close second to the smart Jim over a trip too short for him. But then followed five bad runs prior to this big win. Reasons for this may come up later. All I can say right now is that Liscannor Lad looks an interesting prospect for his next objective, the Galway Plate.

There hasn't been much excitement speed figure-wise on the flat but SYMBOLI WEST (36) did something very interesting at Navan, blasting home on his racecourse debut at four in a time that's on the edge of pattern class. The sprinters tend to be a weak bunch in Ireland, so I can see Symboli West earning some balck type pretty soon. He'd almost certainly get hammered with a rating around 90+ if he went for handicaps. I'd still follow him if he went that route though.

I LIKE THE THEATRE (32) is another name worth remembering. He posted a decent time to win a Gowran Park handicap. His trainer says he needs fast ground and will stay ten furlongs. If he improves just a bit for a step up in distance he'd be edging towards pattern class.