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RUNNING HENRYTHENAVIGATOR IN THE DERBY WOULD BE PLAIN
SILLY
You hear an awful lot of nonsense from people who should
know better after a three year old wins a Guineas. But I have to say the talk of
HENRYTHENAVIGATOR (37) going for the Derby after his win in the Irish 2000
Guineas is right up there with some of the silliest stuff I've heard in this
regard.
Yes Henrythenavigator won the race nicely. But it was a
tiny field, and the clock plus the way he looked when he was running suggests
that NEW APPROACH (35), his only serious rival, ran below form for some reason.
Henrythenavigator didn't have to do much to win. And nothing about his record,
his physique or his pedigree suggests to me that he has the slightest chance of
getting a mile and a half.
Henrythenavigator is by the top miler Kingmambo out of a
mare who never actually won beyond a mile. None of her other foals or any of her
siblings did either.
In addition my research shows that these days horses need
to be conditioned to run longer than a mile if they're going to win the Derby.
If they have a prep race over a mile or less they invariably lose. Okay Sir
Percy was a lucky short head winner of a weak Derby in 2006 after running in the
Guineas. But the other 58 Derby runners from 1992 onwards that prepped at a mile
or less at three all lost.
There have been six horses that won both the British and
Irish Guineas before Henrythenavigator. Only one of them ever won beyond a mile.
This was Rodrigo de Triano who won the Juddmonte International and Champion
Stakes over ten furlongs. However when he tried a mile and a half in the Derby
he faded away like an old soldier to finish ninth by fourteen lengths.
I concede it's possible Henrythenavigator may stay ten
furlongs later on. But let's hear no more of this talk about him going for the
Derby. The discussion may boost his future stud value but it has no relevance to
the big race at Epsom.
New Approach never looked happy and was clearly in trouble
with a quarter of a mile to race. He wouldn't have won a Listed race on what he
showed here. His connections attributed his sub-par performance to the fast
ground. But race times say the ground was actually not that fast at all. The
Guineas was nearly four seconds slower than the quickest renewal of the race and
the earlier Greenlands Stakes was two and a half seconds slower than the record
for the contest.
I have to say I didn't like the look of this performance at
all. I am now going to be very wary of New Approach until he shows his best form
once more.
IT'S HARD TO PASS THE MARMALADE
DUKE OF MARMALADE (42) won his second Group 1 race in a row
when taking the Tattersalls Gold Cup in decent style.
I spent a lot of last season touting Duke Of Marmalade as
the next big thing in middle distance races but he didn't quite crack it. I
think two things have made the difference for him this season.
Firstly he's run over ten and a half furlongs in both his
starts this season. And for a horse that's surely going to prove best at a mile
and a half that extra half furlong is vital.
Secondly in both his starts this term Duke Of Marmalade has
had a searching early pace to offset his lack of acceleration thanks to Spirit
One in the Ganay and his pacemaker red Rock Canyon here. He's a big, long
striding horse who lengthens rather than quickens, very much in the mould of his
former stablemate Dylan Thomas.
Like Dylan Thomas, I'm sure Duke Of Marmalade is always
going to be a sitting duck to any horse with a decent turn of foot in a slow run
race at ten furlongs or less. His big target simply has to be the King George
over a mile and a half. I won't be at all disappointed if he gets done for speed
in the Prince Of Wales Stakes next time. Duke Of Marmalade has now shown what he
can do when he gets a decent test of stamina.
FINSCEAL BEO (41) became yet another horse to frank the
form of the world's richest turf race, the Dubai Duty Free by pushing Duke Of
Marmalade all the way to the line while drawing well clear of the rest. If
Darjina had won the Prix d'Ispahan instead of running second all four horses
that finished in the first eight in the Dubai Duty Free which ran since would
have won Group 1 races.
Finsceal Beo was given a very hard time of things early
last season when she became the only horse in history to run in the British,
French and Irish 1000 Guineas. If the photo had gone the other way in France she
would have won all three.
Finsceal Beo was clearly feeling the effects of those races
when running below form next time. And it looks pretty certain she badly needed
her comeback run.
On her final start of last season, in one of the hottest
ever renewals of the Prix L'Opera, Finsceal Beo proved she stayed ten furlongs
by keeping on strongly to take fifth behind four top class fillies in a very
strongly run contest.
Finsceal Beo finished even more strongly, especially in the
last 100 yards when taking fifth in a big field for the Dubai Duty Free on her
comeback run. Watch the video of that race and it's easy to argue that if it had
been ten furlongs rather than nine Finsceal Beo would have got up.
Finsceal Beo now shapes up as a big player for all the top
ten furlong races. And I'd be rather sure she would have won this one if the
winner didn't have a pacemaker.
I'm not sure that Finsceal Beo would be as effective over a
mile now as she was early last season. And I wouldn't bet too heavily against
her staying a mile and a half either.
IS DOHASA JUST A SPRINTER?
DOHASA (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win a hot
Conditions sprint at Leopardstown. He stayed on well to challenge then forge
clear in the last furlong. And I have to say that judged by the way he ran, his
physique and his pedigree I have a strong suspicion that he'll get seven
furlongs and quite possibly a mile.
If Dohasa could run this fast at longer trips he'd have no
trouble winning Group races. But it's hard for a three year old to beat older
sprinters in Group company so I wouldn't go running away with the idea that
Dohasa is a cert to do well in the near future despite how fast he ran here. His
trainer is probably right to say that next year is when Dohasa will come into
his own. Still the horse has won three of the last four times he's run on fast
turf following a recent run and I'd be wary of opposing him in Group 3 or lower
class, even against older horses.
PRINCE SHAUN (38) had won his two previous starts and did
well to run such a smart winner to a length. He's already proven that he stays
seven furlongs and a mile so should be easier to place. Certainly he's fast
enough to win a Group race.
ASTRONOMER ROYAL LOOKS A SERIOUS SPRINTER
It makes sense that ASTRONOMER ROYAL (41) should have
improved markedly for the cut back to six furlongs in the Greenlands Stakes. As
his trainer Aidan O'Brien noted "He came from last in the straight in the
French Guineas to win and it was speed that won it for him over an easy mile
that day."
Astronomer Royal again showed a serious turn of foot to
take the Greenlands Stakes and is clearly a very serious horse over sprint
trips.
I can see Astronomer Royal doing really well off the
searching early pace that races like the Golden Jubilee and July Cup are run at.
He might well turn out to be another Champion Sprinter that O'Brien has cut back
from a mile.
His stablemate ABRAHAM LINCOLN (40) did really well to
finish a close second, having looked the winner till his stablemate made that
late charge at him. He's a great big horse and I just wonder if this makes him a
bit hard to manouver and explains why he's run unplaced all three times he's run
in really big fields.
APRIL AND ACHAK ARE WORTH FOLLOWING
HEART OF FIRE (35) franked the form of his recent conqueror
Blas Ceoil when winning a hot maiden at Leopardstown. But while I'm sure he'll
earn black type in the near future I'd bet on the second and third APRIL (35)
and ACHAK (33) proving better than him.
I say this because I've had to adjust the rating for the
race based on sectional times, and these show that Heart Of Fire was able to get
away with setting a very slow pace for a six furlong race. So slow that his
jockey was able to save enough for him to rally when April went past him in the
final furlong. He was able to clock just 23.4 seconds for the final two
furlongs, having taken a pedestrian 52.3 seconds to cover the first half mile.
In a normally run race I'm convinced April would have
continued on past Heart Of Fire when she came from the back and won by a length
or two.
April looks built to go seven furlongs or a mile and looks
a very interesting prospect. She should romp a maiden next time. After that I'd
be rather interested in her prospects in the Morglare Stud Stakes.
Achak also looks built to stay longer distances. This is
not surprising. His dam's best run came when she ran second in a ten furlong
Listed race in Italy. And his only sibling to race has so far won over ten and
ten and a half furlongs.
Early in the straight Achak began to move rather well. But
he was boxed in on the rail and didn't seem keen to take the narrow gap the
winner had left. When the gap closed even more his jockey decided to take a
chance and drive Achak into it. But unfortunately Achak then hit the rail and
had to be snatched up close home.
I'd be wary of opposing Achak next time in a maiden race
and fully expect him to prove competitive in pattern company after that. He
could easily be very useful.
GRAND DUCAL ALMOST CERTAINLY GROUP CLASS
GRAND DUCAL (32) didn't clock a good time when winning a
seven and a half furlong maiden at Tipperary. But that's only because they went
really slow till halfway in his race. Up the straight he was really motoring,
and taking that into account suggests he put up a borderline pattern class
performance.
This is no big surprise because the nine juveniles which
Aidan O'Brien won races of seven plus with before June which raced again all
went on to place in Group company. Five turned out to be Group 1 performers.
Grand Ducal certainly has the size and substance to become
a Group racer. He's big and powerful. And there was a lot to like about the way
he found another gear when runner up CHARIYA (31) kept upsides him for a long
way in the straight.
Seeing that he's a deep-chested sort with a big stride on
him I doubt that Grand Ducal is going to be one of those juveniles O'Brien
manages to cut back in trip and win a Group race with. He looks a
middle-distance horse for next year. And if he's going to score a Group win this
year it will surely be over a mile.
Chariya is nothing like as big as the winner. But he's
clearly useful and will surely be franking this form soon.
SET SAIL LOOKS INTERESTING FOR COVENTRY
SET SAIL (34) looks a seriously good two year old following
his success over seven furlongs at Gowran Park where he beat the luckless but
useful COMADOIR (31) into second place.
The early pace was slow but Set Sail came home just as fast
over the last three furlongs as useful older maidens in the next race, and I've
taken this into account to adjust his rating.
Coolmore juveniles rarely pull for their heads in the early
stages, however slow the early pace is. Set Sail certainly didn't here as he
chased the leader early on. However when he was asked to go and win his race in
the straight he showed clear signs of inexperience. First of all his head went
up, his ears went this way and that, and he rolled around a bit, seeming
reluctant to fully extend himself. His jockey Jamie Heffernan then decided to
give him a slap with the whip to wake him up but this simply caused Set Sail to
swerve. So he sat down and rode him out hands and heels and Set Sail finally
consented to stretch out a bit and go clear, winning with a good deal in hand.
Set Sail is a mature, well proportioned sort who looks like
a potential Guineas prospect for next year. But at the same time he clearly has
plenty of speed, as he demonstrated up the straight. This being so I suspect
Aidan O'Brien is planning to cut him back to six furlongs for the Coventry
Stakes next time, just as he did so successfully with Henrythenavigator after
that one won another seven furlong maiden at Gowran Park.
O'Brien has had nine two year old winners over seven
furlongs before May prior to this season which ran again. He cut back all nine
in distance to contest six furlong Group races in June or July. Five of the nine
won Group races over the shorter trip, so the omens for Set Sail in the Coventry
are certainly looking good.
Set Sail should have learned a lot from this run, so I
would anticipate significant improvement from him at Royal Ascot. I'll certainly
think long and hard before opposing him in the Coventry.
Comadoir can't keep on bumping into Group racers in every
maiden he contests and will surely end his sequence of second place finishes
with a win soon.
HEART SHAPED WINS WEAK MARBLE HILL
The Marble Hill Stakes was a weak affair this year. The two
runners with good previous form - Pasar Silbano and Nubar Lady - ran below form.
The logical reason for this is that for one it was the first run on turf and the
other the first time on fast ground.
For a long time it looked as if the maiden Silver Shoon
(30) was going to win. But as they met the rising ground in the last furlong the
obvious stamina of HEART SHAPED (30) kicked in and she got by her.
Heart Shaped is a scopey, rangy filly for whom five
furlongs looks an inadequate distance. She did look to run a bit green in the
closing stages too. So it's perfectly possible she will progress significantly
from this performance over a longer trip.
You could argue that the relatively moderate early pace
affected the final time. But actually they only went about a.2 seconds slow for
the first three furlongs by my estimates, and that's not really slow enough to
affect the final time. In addition the runner up had earned exactly the same
speed rating from me before which seems to back up this idea. On balance I have
to conclude it was a weak race. Though I concede the winner may well improve
later over longer.
ADORED LOOKS A SERIOUS OAKS CANDIDATE
ADORED (37) is a good-bodied, pretty tall, scopey filly who
made all the running to take the Blue Wind Stakes in good time. She just didn't
seem to know what was expected of her when she began to be challenged early in
the straight. In fact she never really lengthened despite the best efforts of
Johnny Murtagh to get her to do so. She ended up winning basically because she
was moving so much better than the runner up TIFFANY DIAMOND (36) and was able
to win the race pretty much in second gear.
Murtagh said Adored learned a lot from her previous win at
Gowran Park. Clearly she needs to learn a bit more. But in my experience the
vast majority of horses race with proper discipline after five or six starts at
most. So it makes sense to send her to Epsom. Though I have to add that my gut
feel is she needs one more run to become fully organized.
The extra two furlongs in the Oaks will suit Adored judged
by her physique and the way she ran here. On pedigree it certainly will. Here
sire is Galileo. Her dam Sudden Hope has produced a bunch of lower class
sprinters and milers by sprint sires. But she was actually a mile and a half
horse herself and a half sister to the Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and Prix Vermeille
runner up Sudden Love.
AGE OF CHIVALRY THE ONE TO BEAT IN BALLYOGAN STAKES
MARY JOSEPHINE (38) clocked a Group class time to win a hot
six furlong three year old handicap at Naas. Clearly this is a useful filly over
six and seven furlongs who is improving. No doubt her connections will want to
exploit her relatively lenient mark in handicaps. But eventually she'll be very
interesting in Listed or even Group 3 company when she gets the fast ground she
needs.
Runner up AGE OF CHIVALRY (38) is a great deal bigger than
the winner and looked sure to get by as she loomed up in the closing stages. But
the line came a stride too soon. This good-bodied classy filly is clearly a
smart sprinter who looks the one they'll all have to beat in the Ballyogan
Stakes at Leopardstown on June 4th.
BLAS CEOIL ONE OF TOP JUVENILE FILLIES
BLAS CEOIL (35) has the build of a miler. So it's not
surprising she improved when stepped up to six furlongs to take a good
Conditions race at Naas. The early pace was moderate but she came home just as
fast as the smart older sprinters from the junction of the courses just over
three furlongs out, and I've used this fact to adjust her speed rating.
Blas Ceoil moved up to challenge with two furlongs to run,
and the further they went from there the better she looked. She ended up
stretching away nicely to win by a couple of lengths.
At this stage I can't think of a filly I like better for
the Moyglare Stud Stakes. Right now though I'll settle for a decent price about
Blas Ceoil in the Swordelstown Cup next time. She looks to have a real shot of
taking that.
KALDERON STILL TOUGH TO BEAT ON TIGHT TRACKS
KALDERON (36) has some decent form on galloping tracks. But
on really tight courses he's exceptional. In fact he has won the last ten times
he's run on a turf track that's ten furlongs or less in circumference which has
a homestraight of three furlongs or shorter. In doing so he's earned some huge
speed ratings from me and beaten some very useful performers.
Killarney is ten furlongs in circumference with a
homestraight of just three furlongs. So it's no big surprise that Kalderon hosed
up by eight lengths in a recent two mile hurdle over the course.
DUAISBHANNA SHOULD IMPROVE OVER LONGER
DUAISBHANNA (32) ran green but was fairly powering away in
the last couple of furlongs when winning a six furlong maiden on her racecourse
debut at Leopardstown. I've no doubt at all that she'll improve over seven
furlongs and a mile. So I'm not surprised trainer Jim Bolger floated the idea of
laying her off till a bit later in the season when big prizes over longer trips
are available.
I can readily see Duaisbhaana earning black type over
longer distances.
CASUAL CONQUEST WOULD HAVE A HUGE CHANCE IN DERBY
After a long run of indecisive Derby Trials it was a real
pleasure to watch CASUAL CONQUEST (41) blitz his rivals in the Derrinstown Stud
Derby Trial and record a truly exceptional time. Without question this is the
best run we've seen by a three year old beyond a sprint trip so far this season
on my ratings. In fact I rate it one of the fastest Derby Trials of the last
decade. The only one I've given a slightly bigger speed rating to was Erhaab
when he won the Dante. And of course he went on to win the Derby.
Casual Conquest is a great big tall handsome horse with a
long stride. And he has some turn of foot. Early in the straight he was stone
last. But a mere twenty strides later he was leading by three lengths and simply
running away from his rivals.
The other impressive thing about Casual Conquest is that
many of the other top middle-distance three year old colts have been running
green in their races whereas he is already the finished article.
The question now is whether Moyglare Stud, the owners of
Casual Conquest will stump up the huge supplementary entry fee needed to get
their horse into the Derby.
If you had to argue a case against Casual Conquest being
supplemented for the Derby you could say he's awfully tall to handle Tattenham
Corner very well. But he's so professional I suspect he'd do fine. And if you
want a good case for going then I'd point you towards the fact that only three
winners of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial before Casual Conquest earned Racing
Post ratings of 115 or more for their success in the big race. The three winners
in question were Sinndar, Galileo and High Chaparral. All three went on to win
at Epsom. With Casual Conquest getting a rating of 118 from the Racing Post I'd
say there's a big chance of that stat reading four out of four if Casual
Conquest gets supplemented for the Derby.
I know it's no longer true that a win in the Derby turns a
horse into a valuable stallion. But it certainly helps more than any other race
in Europe. So I'd be surprised if Moyglare didn't dig into their pockets to put
their horse into the big race. It will be a pity if they don't because then
everyone will rightly be saying that whatever wins the race didn't beat Casual
Conquest.
ICE QUEEN SHOULD GO FOR CHESHIRE OAKS
The ten furlong maiden that ICE QUEEN (36) won at Cork on
Friday was run in slightly faster time than a valuable handicap on the same
card. But they were very differently run races. The big handicap was run at an
even pace thanks to Kalderon who tried to steal it from the front. They went a
full three seconds faster for the first six furlongs in the maiden. And the much
stronger pace made it ride like a mile and a half race.
Ice Queen was always moving best about six to eight lengths
off the lead. Around the turn everything else started to flag and she improved
rather rapidly. Perhaps too rapidly because entering the straight she quickly
ran into a pocket and had to be switched around horses to gain a clear run. Once
she was she stretched out well, quickly asserted and won going right away, being
eased up in the last few strides.
Ice Queen clocked a Listed class time here, and I'd be
surprised if she can't run a bit faster.
The race I'd like to see Ice Queen go for next is the
Cheshire Oaks because I think she'll be much better suited to the eleven and a
half furlongs of that race than shorter contests. She's a long striding proper
mile and a half sort who looks hugely over-priced on Betfair at 200-1 for the
Oaks.
NUBAR LADY HAS A BIG SHOT IN MARBLE HILL
NUBAR LADY (35) didn't clock a fast time when winning a
five furlong maiden at Tipperary. But the acceleration she showed in the last
furlong was tremendous. She came home from there 0.6 of a second quicker than in
the decent handicap over the same trip on the card. She quickly opened up a gap
of nearly five lengths on her rivals and won full of running. When I invoke the
formula I use combining sectional and final times for two year olds it indicates
a pattern class performance.
Nubar Lady got caught late over the very stiff five
furlongs at Navan on her racecourse debut and appreciated the easier track here
according to trainer Tommy Stack.
Clearly Nubar Lady is seriously speedy and looks a very
interesting proposition for her next start, the Marble Hill Stakes at the
Curragh.
PASAR SILBANO DOES IT AGAIN
PASAR SILBANO (33) earned a write up from me when winning
on her debut at Dundalk. And she merits further attention after following up on
the same course.
Pasar Silbano is a big, good-bodied, mature juvenile who
clearly wanted to go a lot faster than the slow early pace set in her five
furlong Conditions race. She fought for her head and went wide on the turns
until finally being let loose turning into the straight where she stretched away
to win clearly while still moving strongly at the finish. She clocked a nifty 23
seconds flat for the last two furlongs compared with the 24.2 taken in the
handicap for older horses. That's due to the slow early pace in her race.
When I use the formula I've devised for two year old races
combing sectional and final times it spits out a rating of 33 for Pasar Silbano,
which is Listed class for a two year old. My gut feel is that she will actually
be capable of winning a Group 3.
Trainer Ger Lyons reckons Pasar Silbano will do better on a
straight course, which makes sense seeing that she's run wide on both her starts
to date around the turn at Dundalk. I also think a bigger field would help as
then they'd probably go a bit faster early on which would help her to settle.
The next objective for Pasar Silbano is the Swordelstown
Sprint at Naas followed by the Queen Mary. She clearly has a shot in both those
races.
I suspect Pasar Silbano won't act on anything but fast turf
or Polytrack. She has a fast ground action and her sire and dam scored all their
wins on fast ground. Her sole winning sibling's only success to date came on the
dirt in Dubai.
OHIYESA LOOKS PATTERN CLASS
Many two year old races are slow run for the first couple
of furlongs. But the one that OHIYESA (34) won at Cork took things to an
extreme. The field absolutely crawled till halfway which caused many of the
runners to pull for their heads. They then sprinted home over the last couple of
furlongs about 0.7 of a second faster than they did in the big Listed race for
older horses over the same trip.
Given how fast they were traveling in the closing stages it
was quite some feat on the part of Ohiyesa to storm through from the back, split
horses as she barged her way into the lead with about a furlong to run and then
sprint clear to win clearly and full of run.
Ohiyesa looked like a staying two year old to me here.
She's a good-bodied sort that looks built for at least a mile. Certainly the way
that she was finishing suggests she will appreciate longer than the six furlongs
she tried here. In this regard it's interesting to note that her sire was a top
miler and her dam's other two foals are both hurdlers.
My method of combing sectional and final times for slow run
two year old races points to this being a pattern class effort by Ohiyesa. I see
her as a very interesting prospect.
CONTEST A SMART SPRINTER
It's not often I get the chance to report on a fast Irish
sprinter. But CONTEST (38) certainly fits that description after beating the
useful British raider Tax Free (36) in the Listed Cork Stakes.
Contest was held up in last place but quickly moved through
with a furlong to go. He bobbed up and down in a narrow lead for a fair few
strides but then took off in the last fifty yards to clear right away and win by
a rapidly widening length and a quarter while still moving comfortably
A very stiff five furlongs or any track over six seems best
for this big, classy looking sprinter. He's won three times out of four in these
conditions and met trouble in running when third in his only loss. Then again,
from the way he was finishing here I would not rule out seven furlongs for him
by any means.
It's tough to tell how good a sprinter is that wins
comfortably because the length or two they could have extended their winning
margin by is the difference between a Listed and a Group 1 performance over
short distances. All I can really say for sure at this stage is I wouldn't want
to be opposing Contest in Ireland unless he cuts back to five furlongs on an
easy track. And seeing how well he won this I wouldn't be surprised to see him
prove competitive in some of the top sprints in Europe.
CHINESE WHITE NOT THAT SMART
CHINESE WHITE (32) was cut to favouritism for the Oaks
after winning a Listed race over nine and a half furlongs at Gowran Park. But I
have to say I think she is being over-rated. I can't find any way to give her
anything close to a pattern class speed rating for the effort.
It isn't that the race was that slow run. They went a fair
gallop all the way. Okay they did accelerate steadily after half a mile from
home. But they still came home four seconds slower from the turn after the seven
furlong start than they did in the fastest seven furlong race. And they should
have run only about 1.8 seconds slower if the races were of equal class. They
went half a second quicker over the final two furlongs which isn't bad seeing
they went a longer distance. However I can't rate this a Group class effort
however much I tinker with the numbers. And lines of form back me up on this.
Chinese White was ridden out all the way to the line, so I
doubt she's much better than what I've rated her. Okay she ran green in front
and can probably go quicker. But to make her Oaks favourite off this run doesn't
make sense to me.
ADORED LOOKS GROUP CLASS
Everyone seemed to be impressed by Chinese White at Gowran
Park on Sunday. But if there was an Oaks winner on the card I rather suspect it
was ADORED (27).
I concede that Adored clocked a slower time than Chinese
White did over the same distance. But when you compare their sectional times
they suggest the Coolmore filly is the better prospect.
There wasn't much pace on in either contest. But Adored
came home 0.3 of a second quicker over the last three furlongs. What makes this
all the more impressive is that Adored was given a very easy time of things in
the last furlong because she was so far clear while Chinese White was ridden out
vigorously all the way to the line. This is why Adored's final furlong was so
much slower. My estimate is that if she'd been ridden out as Chinese White was
she would have come very close to equaling her time - despite coming off a pace
that was about 1.5 seconds slower to the three furlong pole.
Adored is a big, long striding filly who ran horribly green
when she hit the front. I'd say this means the Oaks is going to come a bit soon
for her. She needs another run to get more organised. But later on, with another
run or tow under her belt, I see her being a big threat to take at least a Group
race, and who knows, maybe even a Group 1 if she improves enough.
RYEHILL DREAMER CONFIRMS HIS CLASS
RYEHILL DREAMER (36) won the first seven furlong two year
old race of the season in good style confirming that he's one of the best of his
age seen out so far. He also confirmed that he stays as well as his pedigree
says he should. And from the way he won it looks like trainer Tommy Stack is
right to say he'll stay further.
Ryehill Dreamer came from just off the pace to go on soon
after the two furlong mark and then idled in front as he held the late run of
the second MR TOPAZ (34) without much trouble.
As ever in two year old races, they didn't go that fast in
the early stages, so I've had to resort to sectional times to rate the race
properly. These show that they came home from the three furlong pole about 0.7
of a second quicker than they did in the valuable 60-100 handicap for older
fillies over the same trip in the next race.
Ryehille Dreamer should be winning in Group company
sometime this season and may get his first shot at black type in a Listed race
at Leopardstown next month.
The three winning siblings of runner-up Mr Topaz are all
five and six furlong sprinters. But Mr Topaz has a much stouter sire and is
clearly going to be best over longer distances. In fact, judged by his physique
and the way he ran here, I reckon he's going to be doing middle distances as a
three year old.
Mr Topaz impressed me by the way he rapidly pulled four
lengths clear of the rest as he set off in vain pursuit of the winner through
the closing stages. Clearly he should have no problem winning his maiden next
time and ought to be competitive in pattern company after that.
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