MASTERCRAFTSMAN SHOULD GO FOR ECLIPSE

Andre Fabre once said that the only effective pacemaker is one that's so good the jockeys are afraid of letting it go clear for fear it will steal the race. Normally Aidan O'Brien follows Fabre's advice and puts in a pacemaker that's very useful. But he didn't do so in the Irish 2,000 Guineas this year. He put in the ordinary maiden Viceroy Of India to make the running for MASTERCRAFTSMAN (40). And the riders of the other runners basically ignored him after they'd run about three furlongs and allowed him to go well clear. They only started to pick up the pace again properly when they got to him before the two furlong pole. As a result the middle three furlongs of the race was run 1.1 seconds slower than the Group 3 for fillies earlier on the card.

It didn't matter because Mastercraftsman won anyway, powering through the last two furlongs 0.7 seconds quicker than the winner of the fillies race. The heavy ground slowed him and his pursuers to little more than a loping gallop. But the big, tall colt won comfortably and was clearly helped by the fact that the going made the race much more of a stamina test than a normal mile race.

On faster ground Mastercraftsman has shown in the past that he can easily have trouble laying up with the pace over a mile or less. As I see it he's built to be a ten furlong horse and should now step up to that distance. If he goes for the St James' Palace Stakes as planned I'd be strongly inclined to oppose him unless the ground turned up unseasonably soft at Royal Ascot.

The horse I like for that race is Le Havre who has run just as fast on my speed ratings but is a specialist miler with a serious turn of foot that loves fast ground.

The race for Mastercraftsman is surely the Eclipse Stakes which usually goes to a horse that's run well over shorter trips earlier that same season. The steep uphill finish would counteract his lack of push button acceleration in the same way that the heavy ground did at the Curragh.

Runner up RAYENI (38) was attempting to become the first horse since Pampapaul back in 1977 to win the Irish 2000 Guineas on his seasonal debut. He ran a fair race, coming from out of the pack to chase the winner home without threatening him at any stage.

My concern with Rayeni is that he has rather a choppy stride and doesn't look the soundest of animals. He missed four weeks work in the Spring and "must have soft ground" according to trainer John Oxx, just like his dam. With fast Summer ground now set to prevail I don't see exactly where Rayeni goes from here. In addition he looked somewhat dwarfed by several of his rivals, notably the winner. I just wonder whether he's grown much since last year. That said, I've given him the same rating he earned from me last year because I'm assuming the dreadfully slow ground doubled the beaten lengths at the Curragh. This makes sense when I look at my numbers.

SOUL CITY (37) ran better than I'd expected to take third. I thought he'd need the run quite badly because he's so big bodied and was making his seasonal debut. Most likely he'll come on a good deal for this. Though I have to add he still hasn't earned anything better than a Group 3 class speed rating from me.

DRUMBEAT (34) was moving better than anything on the wide outside with two furlongs to go and looked a serious threat. But he faded to nothing in the closing stages. Either he disliked the bottomless ground or he was racing on slower going due to being further out on the course. We’ve seen this happen before at the Curragh when the ground is soft enough for the runners to cross over to the stands side. So I'm happy to draw a line through this run. I now have my eye on Drumbeat to pull off a big priced win in a Group race in the next few weeks over a longer trip. He's run three good races out of three beyond a mile and is more than capable of taking a Group 2 or 3 race on my ratings.

HAIL CAESAR (33) is probably too weak and immature to get through such heavy ground. He tired and was not given a hard time but remains a promising colt. It was good to see him run a little less green in the closing stages than he has before. His head still came up slightly but not as much as previously. On faster ground I see him winning something decent before long.

DELEGATOR (31) just couldn't pick up properly in the ground and tired rather badly. My thinking is that his stamina gave out because the heavy ground made the race ride more like a nine furlong contest, and I think he only just gets the mile.

RARE RANSOM A GOOD PROSPECT FOR CORONATION STAKES

The clock shows that the fillies went off rather too fast in the Irish 1000 Guineas. As a result they slowed up dramatically in the final three furlongs. They actually took a full four seconds longer to cover them than Casual Conquest did in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. But this is an unfair comparison because Casual Conquest set a moderate pace and was able to quicken. A fairer benchmark is the previous days Group 3 for older fillies and mares where they went 1.6 seconds slower to the three furlong from home marker when I adjust for the difference in ground.

I've seen steeplechasers finish more strongly than the principals did in this race. The combination of a testing pace and the porridge-like surface made it a serious test of stamina. So it's not that surprising that a mile and a half prospect should score in the shape of AGAIN (39).

Again benefited greatly from being held up off the scorching pace. But she was still tired enough to roll towards the rail two furlongs out. She gradually wore down the runner up LAHALEEB (39) to get up but had slowed down to a slow canter as she passed the line.

I'm not surprised that the connections of Again are thinking of giving the Oaks a miss after this hard fought win. It now looks likely that her trainer was right to blame the effect of her two back to back big race wins for her dreadful effort in last season's Marcel Boussac. That race came off a break of five weeks but the Oaks will be run just twelve days after the Irish Guineas. This being so I'd be surprised to see Again line up at Epsom.

I don't think that Again necessarily needs soft ground despite her big wins all coming on the surface. She broke her maiden on a fast surface and I'm betting she'll handle it fine if, as I suspect, she returns to the Curragh after a break and encounters quick ground for the Irish Oaks.

Lahaleeb is a filly that I've under-rated. She worked her way through from the back to take a narrow lead two furlongs out and then kick on. It looked like she'd got the race won but Again just wore her down.

Clearly Lahaleeb is smart when she gets the soft ground she seems to need. Unfortunately that's unlikely to happen again till the Autumn.

OH GOODNESS ME (37) made what might well have been a race-winning move on faster going off a slightly slower pace when kicking on with three and a half furlongs to run. But she'd been chasing the slightly too strong early pace. So even her obvious stamina wasn't quite enough to enable her to hold on. She still managed to run a good third though.

Oh Goodness Me is a big, strapping, good-bodied mile and a half sort that looks more like a colt. You could argue that she's too top heavy to handle the faster surface she'll probably encounter in the Oaks. But she broke her maiden on what race times indicate was genuinely good ground at Gowran Park. So I'm rather hopeful that she'll do very well at Epsom.

Fourth placed RARE RANSOM (35) was my idea of the winner before the race. But, like Oh Goodness me, she paid the price for sticking too close to the overly fast early pace.

It could be that Rare Ransom may be one of those horses that runs her best on her first two starts of the year and then needs resting to produce her best. I say this because she showed her best on her first two starts last year and bounced back to win a good Conditions race over a mile against pattern class older males on her three year old debut last time.

It was remarkable how strong Rare Ransom finished in that race. She came home no less than 2.9 seconds faster over the last three furlongs than the winner of the following handicap over the same trip. When I adjust my speed rating to take account of this it indicates another solid Group class performance from her. In fact I rate it good Group 2.

Rare Ransom won that race with a fair bit in hand. The second challenged her approaching the furlong pole. But she was going away from him again in the last half furlong to win full of running. It was an impressive performance.

It's interesting to note that trainer Dermot Weld is sure she needed that run. He told reporters after wards. "I was going to run her straight up in the Guineas, but she gave a good blow the other morning and I'd left a little bit to work on so I decided to run her here."

Rare Ransom has muscled and strengthened up a good deal since last season. So it may well be that she'll now not need to be rested to produce her best. I see her as a big threat to win a Group 1 this season and rather hope she goes for the Coronation Stakes.

CASUAL CONQUEST NEEDS TO RUN FASTER, BUT HE PROBABLY CAN.

Nobody could accuse Dermot Weld of short term thinking. After CASUAL CONQUEST (39) had run second in the Irish Derby last year he announced "We are putting him by until next year. "He's all right, but we just felt he'd gone off a little at home. We didn't think he was in as good form as he was before so we are going to give him a bit of a rest. He's a big horse and he's still developing. "The Tattersalls Gold Cup is one race in mind and we'll give him a run before that."

So, right on schedule, Casual Conquest ran in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last Sunday, having had the prep run Weld promised. And of course he won after setting a moderate pace and winding it up gradually from the front from six furlongs out.

It is long term planning like this that's enabled Dermot Weld to win big races right across the planet with far less horsepower at his command than many big stables. When he gets a horse that's capable of winning a big race he take the time to figure out exactly what's best for it, formulates a plan and sticks to it.

Top trainers tend to fall into two categories. They're either opportunistic and simply run whatever horses they have fit enough for a particular big race. Or they're planners like Dermot Weld. Give me a planner every time.

I agree with Weld that Casual Conquest ran a bit below form in the Epsom and Irish Derbies last year. He'd looked a future star when blasting home by six lengths in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial while earning one of the biggest speed ratings I've given a Derby trial winner in the last decade. His subsequent placed efforts in the two Derbies were a couple of lengths per mile off that on my numbers.

In his comeback race at Newmarket it was immediately apparent even from the video that Casual Conquest had grown and strengthened since his last run eleven months before. But he clearly hadn't acquired greater acceleration. He'd been outpaced in a near sprint finish at Epsom by the first two and taken an awfully long time to get back into his stride after being forced to swerve in the Irish Derby. It was the same story at Newmarket. Off a very slow early gallop he was totally outpaced by the smart Bronze Cannon in the ensuing sprint finish on firm ground.

After the race Weld said "He's ran a good race, but as I've said beforehand, he was ring-rusty. The ground is good, safe ground, but may just be on the fast side for him at the moment. We'll now take each day as it comes."

Clearly Casual Conquest does nothing quickly. When he won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial he came with a long, uninterrupted run down the outside to mow his rivals down. When he got stopped in his run in the Irish Derby he recovered his momentum painfully slowly.

There are basically two cures for a lack of acceleration. The first is to have a searching early gallop like Casual Conquest had in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial courtesy of Hindu Kush. The second is to have soft ground which is what he got in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Casual Conquest's performance earned the same Group 2 class speed rating he got from me for his comeback run. But he won the race comfortably so I've little doubt that he can equal or better the performance he put up in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial the next time he gets soft ground or a strong early pace.

Weld is probably right to say that the best distance for the runner up FAMOUS NAME (37) is nine furlongs. Over longer trips his run always seems to flatten out in the last furlong. The problem is that outside of America there aren't many big nine furlong races. So I'm now wondering whether he has a trip across the Pond in mind for Famous Name. The horse has shown in the past that he can produce the turn of foot that's needed to win off the slow pace that normally prevails in US turf races. And he has enough ability to beat any American turf runner I know of.

LUSH LASHES (36) has shown in the past that she can't go through heavy ground. So although it may have looked rather worrying to see her lose her action, roll around and tire badly I don't think we should fret too much. On faster ground she'll probably bounce back to her best next time.

THEWAYYOUARE (30) ran an absolute clunker to finish far back in last spot. The most likely explanation is that he had a harder time getting through the ground than even Lush Lashes. You might think this strange since he won on officially soft and 'very soft' ground as a two year old. But race times show the ground was actually only yielding for those two races. Thewayyouare ran a most promising race in the Prix Ganay on his previous start, so I'm betting he'll bounce back and prove that he's still a proper Group 1 horse sooner rather than later. Looking at his physique I think I'd now prefer him over a mile and a half in future rather than ten furlongs.

BEAUCHAMP XERXES COULD TURN THIS FORM AROUND AT ROYAL ASCOT

Gerard Butler is not a trainer you should ignore when he runs a horse in a Derby Trial that's never previously tackled pattern company.

Before the Cocked Hat Stakes last week his record in these circumstances read as follows;

2000 Lingfield Derby Trial Saddler's Quest WON 100-30

2001 Dee Stakes Dr Greenfield WON 11-4

2002 Feilden Stakes Playapart WON 6-1

2003 Sandown Classic Trial Shield WON 4-1

2007 Glasgow Stakes Dansant second

Butler bid to make it five wins out of six in a Derby Trial with a horse untried in pattern company with BEAUCHAMP EXERXES (37). But the slow early pace and sprint finish clearly didn't suit this out and out mile and a half horse. He got caught flat-footed when the pace picked up and only got rolling late to take second.

This was not the first promising run by Beauchamp Xerxes.

On his racecourse debut in the Wood Ditton Stakes in April Beauchamp Xerxes had to cope with a very slow run race over a trip that's clearly short of his best. The winner, Militarist, was allowed to set an absolute crawl till after halfway as Militarist sat about a length off him in third. When the sprint for home began three and a half furlongs out Beauchamp Xerxes actually moved up to lead by a head briefly. But it soon became evident he was a middle distance horse running against sprinters and milers. His stride was visibly longer than his rivals and he steadily got swamped for speed, finishing a close fourth.

Next time out Beauchamp Express ran in the hottest maiden race I can recall ever being run at Chester. He's a tall, long striding sort and not best suited to such a tight course. So it was no big surprise to see him get boxed in, caught in traffic and bumped rounding the turn into the straight. Before that he'd been running nicely in fourth last spot. But when his jockey tried to get him out to make progress he bumped into the horse on his outside, got knocked back and had to be eased while his rider sat and suffered, waiting for a gap to open. From being four lengths behind the winner Harbinger he slipped to eight lengths back, an almost impossible position to win from with the homestraight at Chester being little more than a furlong.

Beauchamp Express fairly flew up the straight to finish fourth and would have been third in another few strides. I think he'd have been fighting the Coolmore Group class runner up Changingoftheguard for second place if he'd gotten out earlier.

Beauchamp Express does show a bit of knee action. But so does Harbinger, the horse that beat him at Chester. Like that one, fast ground doesn't seem to bother Beauchamp Express.

It looks pretty clear to me that Beauchamp Xerxes is a Group class horse. I like his chances of turning this form around with Alwaary in the King Edward VII Stakes.

That said, this was a big run by ALWAARY (39). He found a remarkably good turn of foot for such a big horse to scoot clear in the sprint finish.

Alwaary is a tall, deep chested, very mature and muscular twelve furlong plus sort that won a maiden nicely at Yarmouth on his second and final start as a juvenile. In a sprint finish off a slow pace he produced a sustained surge to power past the leaders from second last spot and win going away by a length and a half full of running. He looked like a Group racer as he did so.

On his only previous start Alwaary had finished third to Crowded House on the Poly, staying on nicely

Alwaary is a big horse that is surely hard to get fit at home. He came on for his first run last year so he almost certainly needed his first run this year too in the Lingfield Derby Trial. His jockey stopped riding him at the furlong pole in that race, allowing Alwaary to come home in his own time when he saw he couldn't get to the first three. Alwaary passed the post with his ears pricked, moving nicely. Now he's gone and shown what he can do when fitter. This run marks him out as a solid Group 2 horse.

FREE AGENT (36) must have needed the run after all the setbacks he's had. And he was given an easy time of things in the last furlong but still finished a close fourth. Seeing that he's knocked a chip off a bone in the past and shows a bit of knee action I'd prefer him on softer ground than he had at Goodwood. But he moved well for a long way and does look likely to fulfill the promise he showed when winning at Royal Ascot last year.

FAME AND GLORY IS NO DERBY WINNER

I don't understand why FAME AND GLORY (38) was promoted to Derby favouritism following his win in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. The runner up probably failed to act on the fast ground and the third was visibly quitting. The time was just good Group 3 to borderline Group 2 for a three year old and there was no way Fame And Glory could have run faster. He actually flashed his tail when his jockey asked him to. That's a sure sign a horse has no more to give.

I can see why the pundits are latching on to Fame And Glory. He's a Group 1 winner that is unbeaten in four starts. And he's just achieved the same double that Galileo and High Chaparral pulled off before winning at Epsom. But so did Humbel, and he was nothing special.

No doubt Fame And Glory is going to get big handicap ratings from Timeform and the Racing Post too. But I'm convinced he won't deserve them.

I can also see the arguement for saying Fame And Glory could still win the Derby even if he's not that good. After all Erhaab, Shaamit, High-Rise, Oath, Kris Kin and Sir Percy have all won the big race in the last fifteen years and it turned out they all had the same level of ability that I think Fame And Glory has - as they failed to win in a combined total of twenty starts in Group company following their Derby success.

However, unless I'm much mistaken, this is a very good year for three year old middle distance colts. I'd be surprised if a whole bunch of them didn't turn out to be better than Fame And Glory, and I reckon several of the fastest are in the same stable.

The three big runs MOURAYAN (34) had put up in pattern company came on going that had a bit of cut in it. He doesn't show much knee action but it's hard to escape the conclusion that the fast surface produced the regression in form he showed here. Then again it could just be he simply needs to step up to a mile and a half and it was the soft ground that previously made him effective at shorter trips. Either way I wouldn't give up on him. I can still see him doing well in Group 1 company over further or on softer ground.

I confess that I have a weakness for quirky horses like FERGUS MCIVER (34) who ran third. He moves really well in his races and seems to have any amount of ability. But as soon as he hits the front or is asked for a serious effort his head goes up in the air and he eases himself up. He's been tried in a noseband and cheekpieces and this time in blinkers, none of which have affected his head carriage. All the blinkers did was to prompt him to show more early speed than usual and chase the two pacemakers. He ended up hitting the front when they tired, but then his head came up as usual and he slowed down. He picked up again when Mourayan and the winner went past him but only enough to keep up with the second placed horse.

Fergus McIver has only had half a dozen runs. So maybe he'll work out of his behavioural problems in time. Or perhaps a change to exaggerated hold up tactics could do the trick. But from what I've seen the only thing that's going to bring his head down is a martingale, and I don't think they're allowed in racing.

Fourth placed HAIL CAESAR (32) is an interesting prospect. He has grown a good deal since last season but is still somewhat under-developed. He's shown some good form in big races and did so again here. But the overwhelming concern with him has to be the way he ran in the Ballysax Stakes last time and in this race. In both contests he moved up quite impressively around the home turn to put himself in a challenging position. But then he ran green, preventing his jockey from fully riding him out.

I'm now getting used to the sight of Hail Caesar closing up impressively in a big race and then seeing his head come up and his ears go all over the place as he goofs off and fails to exert himself fully.

There now looks to be a rather worrying correlation between Hail Caesar's behaviour and his form. He won a maiden race but in his five subsequent starts in Group company he's managed to find a way to run out of the first three every time.

However I have far more faith in Hail Caesar ability to straighten up and fly right than Fergus McIver. It's overwhelmingly likely that Hail Caesar will work his way out of his behaviour as he strengthens up and gains racing experience. Right now he's still a raw, immature horse that clearly has a lot of growing and learning to do. But I've got my eye on him as a likely big improver, perhaps over a longer trip.

I like the Coolmore pacemaker LISZT (-3) too, even though he finished tailed off after being eased up.

Andre Fabre once said something smart about pacemakers. He said that jockeys ignore them unless they have the ability to win. Then they're scared to let them get too far in front.

Fabre is one of three trainers in Europe that routinely uses pacemakers. Saeed Bin Suroor and Aidan O'Brien are the other two. And we can all cite instances when one of their pacemakers has gone and won a big race at huge odds. This is because nowadays they all seem to follow Fabre's advice and use pacemakers that actually have the ability to win, or at least go close.

I think Liszt falls into this category. I see him as a useful horse that has the ability to win a Group race.

List was a narrow, immature sort when he made his debut last July. He was utterly clueless first time out too. After racing third and fourth early, moving well, he turned into the straight going better than anything. But on straightening up it became abundantly clear he didn't know what was required of him. His ears went back and forth and he just lolloped along despite the efforts of his jockey to make him accelerate. He passed the post in fourth, still moving well and without having had much of a race at all.

Seeing that the first three home were all at least Listed class that was some debut performance. Liszt had them all beat turning in but simply didn't know how to race.

I think trainer Aidan O'Brien made a smart move in laying Liszt off for three and a half months after his debut. This gave him time to re-educate the horse. It also gave Liszt time to strengthen up.

When he returned for a mile maiden Liszt had grown and strengthened up markedly. He knew a lot more about the game too. He made all the running and accelerated nicely when asked to go and win his race in the closing stages. Okay he did briefly run green but he soon worked out of that, quickened up and moved away rather impressively from runner up Fergus Mciver to win with a fair bit in hand.

It should be noted that run was on heavy ground. Liszt has a very long stride, one that's designed to help him go long distances but show very little acceleration. It may very well be that, like most of the better horses on his dam's side, he's going to need cut in the ground to produce his best. It certainly looked that way in the Ballysax Stakes and in this contest where he fell away quite rapidly after disputing the lead at a decent pace.

Liszt is still rather immature. But he's grown a lot since that first start last year. I like his chances of winning a Listed or Group race in mud sometime this year at very nice odds.

HOW GOOD IS ALAIVAN?

It’s impossible for me to give a proper rating to ALAIVAN (27) for his win in the Gowran Park Classic Trial because of the incredibly slow early pace. He ended up coming home faster up the straight then they did in the seven furlong handicap but had set such a slow pace earlier that the final time was dreadful. He ended up winning comfortably after steadily drawing away from two furlongs out.

Alaivan had run a seriously promising race in a red hot middle distance maiden on his debut a few weeks earlier. He ran green and tossed his head about in the early stages then got boxed in for most of the way up the straight on the rails. But he finished close up and absolutely full of running, not being given a hard time of things at all by his jockey in the last furlong.

I can readily see Alaivan developing into a Group winner on what I saw him do last time and at Gowran Park. Though I'd be wary of drawing any strong inference from the fact that he beat the Ballysax Stakes runner up Fergus McIver into second here. That one has a bad habit of sticking his head up in the air and not fully exerting himself in the closing stages. He did that again here and looks to be one of those horses that can run second to pretty much anything.