PROFOUND BEAUTY SHOULD GO FOR PRETTY POLLY STAKES

The fastest race at Leopardstown last Sunday, whatever set of standard times you use, was the decent nine furlong handicap won by Charminamix in 1m 51.59 seconds.

PROFOUND BEAUTY (40) didn't clock a fast time for her race, the Saval Beg Stakes over a mile and three quarters. But that's only because they went slow in the early stages. She actually clocked a time 1.3 seconds faster than Charminamix for the final nine furlongs of her race. Even if I ignore the fact she'd run three quarters of a mile beforehand I still have to award her a seriously good Group 2 class speed rating for the performance.

This run suggests that Profound Beauty would have the pace to cut back to ten furlongs and still be very effective. So I do hope she takes up her entry in the Pretty Polly Stakes over that distance. Certainly she has a good deal more speed than most stayers and that's what gave her the edge over the smart runner up AGE OF AQUARIUS (40). The Coolmore colt has always been vulnerable to a rival with a superior turn of foot, and that's why he's won just one of the six pattern races he's contested. Nonetheless he's still smart and enjoyed a head start when leading the sprint for home from half a mile out. So it was impressive how Profound Beauty closed the gap on him so smoothly.

Age Of Aquarius began fighting back in the closing stages and kept the winning margin to just half a length. This was a smart performance by him, one that suggests he has a real chance in the Ascot Gold Cup.

Profound Beauty clearly doesn't act on soft ground. But she's won six of the last seven times she's run on yielding or faster going, with her sole loss being a smart fifth in the Melbourne Cup where she got beat only two and a half lengths. Now I'm wondering if she really gets the two miles of that race as she fell back from second to fifth in the final furlong.

CANFORD CLIFFS PROVES HIS STAMINA AGAIN

A strange kind of groupthink occasionally seems to overcome the minds of pundits and punters. Something which has little or no basis in fact rapidly becomes accepted wisdom and many seem unwilling to speak out against it for fear of criticism.

This seemed to happen in regards to CANFORD CLIFFS (42) who has just won the Irish 2000 Guineas so impressively.

I don't know who first mooted the idea that Canford Cliffs was essentially a sprinter that didn't truly stay a mile. But the idea caught on like wildfire despite the fact he'd finished out his races so strongly in the Greenham and 2000 Guineas - running seriously fast times over the last three furlongs in both races.

Canford Cliffs firmly booted this cockeyed theory into touch at the Curragh, coming from off a scorchingly fast early pace to win the race in tremendous style. He was still running strongly crossing the line.

I suggested after the Guineas at Newmarket that Canford Cliffs might actually do better going up in distance rather than down. After seeing how strongly he finished here I dare say his connections are now regretting they didn't enter him for the Eclipse Stakes. That race usually goes to a hose that's shown smart form over less than ten furlongs that same season and Canford Cliffs would surely have had a great chance in it.

This run puts Canford Cliffs level with his Newmarket conqueror Makfi on my speed ratings. Basically both he and Makfi have run about as fast as a three year old can go this early in the season.

FREE JUDGEMENT (39) ran his best ever race to finish second. But he only clocked a Group 2 class time and benefited hugely from the way he was ridden. The early pace was too fast and his rider Kevin Manning let him lob along in last place of the thirteen runners, shrewdly waiting for his rivals to tire, which all but Canford Cliffs duly did.

VISCOUNT NELSON (38) ran a good race to take third. He raced in eighth place in the early stages, only about eight to ten lengths off the mad pace being set by clear leader Encompassing. He picked up steadily all the way to the line and once more gave the strong impression he'll improve over longer distances.

Viscount Nelson took an awfully long time to put away inferior rivals in sprint finishes on his second and third starts. It looked to me the soft ground brought his obvious stamina into play both times, just as it did when he stayed on into second behind Noll Wallop in the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial on his seasonal debut.

When Viscount Nelson ran on a fast surface for the first time at Doncaster he shifted his ground slightly and got outkicked by the winner to finish second in the Champagne Stakes. He then only managed to run eighth on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf when encountering a fast surface again. And he ran eleventh the other time he met fast ground last time out in the 2000 Guineas where he stayed on late to finish halfway down the field.

Trainer Aidan O‘Brien said before the Irish Guineas that Viscount Nelson acts well on fast ground and that he'd do better than he did at Newmarket thanks to the stronger early pace his brace of pacemakers would ensure. He was proven right. But my feeling is Viscount Nelson needs a bit of cut to take the emphasis off finishing speed at this short a trip and is a middle distance horse in the making.

I suspect Viscount Nelson is not quite up to winning a Group 1 but it's probably a bit early to be making that Judgement. When he gets the chance to run longer it's perfectly possible he'll improve.

Seeing that he almost certainly needed the run STEINBECK (37) did well to pick up slowly but steadily. He was eleventh in the early stages, eighth two furlongs, sixth at the furlong pole and ended up fourth. He just kept plugging after racing a little keenly in the early stages, no doubt due to being a bit too fresh.

I'm always wary of O'Brien's well regarded colts when they come back off a long break in Ireland rather than abroad - especially when they're running over less than ten furlongs. So far he's blanked with all twenty of the colts he's run in Irish Group 1 and 2 races over short of ten furlongs off breaks of eight weeks or more. He's won 39 times out of 155 (25.2%) off shorter breaks. And he's won 12 from 81 when he's run a colt off a break of eight weeks plus over less than ten furlongs abroad.

O'Brien's five British 2000 Guineas winners all took the race on their seasonal debuts. But the Irish 2000 Guineas comes later and all O'Brien's six winners of this race had run less than five weeks before. The eight he's started off longer breaks all lost - including the odds on Second Empire who had earned Racing Post ratings of 119 and 120 at two - which is better form than Steinbeck showed last year.

In the circumstances for Steinbeck to run so well off such a big break suggests he most likely is the Group 1 horse many people believe him to be. He's certainly a seriously good looking colt with plenty of size and substance.

XTENSION (37) looked sure to finish second approaching the furlong pole as he'd built up a length and a half lead, having kicked on a furlong earlier. But he'd stuck too close to the overly fast early pace and wilted in the final hundred yards to finish fifth. My thinking is that in a more normally run race he'd have finished second by about two lengths.

HOLD THOSE BETS ON FAME AND GLORY IN THE CORONATION CUP

The folly of having too many Group 1 races was exposed in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh last Sunday. The connections of the top horses have so many options these days the race attracted just two serious contenders in FAME AND GLORY (41) and Cutlass Bay. Cutlass Bay failed to handle the firm ground so Fame And Glory was left to romp home by a big margin from inferior rivals.

As I see it Group 1 races should be genuine championship contests where all the best horses in each division of the sport line up. Right now there are so many Group 1's the best horses can avoid each other.

Fame And Glory certainly looked good winning the race which was made a sufficient test of stamina for him by his pacemaker. But I still say that ten furlongs is not his best distance and that he'll do better when stepped back up to a mile and a half.

However I'd be wary of taking the short odds currently available ante-post about Fame And Glory for the Coronation Cup over a mile and a half. Only one Tattersalls Gold Cup runner has gone on to contest the Coronation Cup in the past because the races are basically too close together. It's possible that Fame And Glory will become the second to run in both races, but he ran really fast at the Curragh so it will probably take him a while to get over the race.

JAN VERMEER CAN GO FASTER

JAN VERMEER (36) didn't have to fully exert himself to win the Gallinule Stakes. Even when I adjust my speed ratings to take account of the modest early pace and near sprint finish I can only give him a borderline Listed class rating for the effort.

However the smooth way Jan Vermeer glided past a front runner that had been allowed an uncontested lead was impressive. He clocked just 34.8 seconds for the last three furlongs and it looked like he could have run a fair bit faster.

Jan Vermeer is a good-bodied, classy looking sort that is built for a mile and a half. He has already won a Group 1 from a group of horses that have not let the form down at all. He could easily be good enough to win the Derby. And I'd prefer his prospects in that race rather than the Prix du Jockey Club. The longer distance would help him and in the French race he'd be up against the best crop of Gallic three year olds we've seen in years.

MIDAS TOUCH THE FASTEST DERBY TRIAL WINNER SO FAR

There's absolutely no question that MIDAS TOUCH (40) is a Group 1 horse following his win in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. The ten horses that have run ten furlongs as fast as he did at Leopardstown in that race over the last fifteen years were all Group 1 horses. Namely Azamour, Duke Of Marmalade, Dylan Thomas, Fantastic Light, Galileo, Grey Swallow, Norse Dancer, Ouija Board, Powerscourt and Rakti.

The time that Midas Touch ran merits a speed rating that is Group 1 for a three year old this early in the season. It's possible to run a couple of lengths a mile quicker but it's still Group 1.

The race was set up for Midas Touch by the tremendous early pace at which the Coolmore pacemaker AT FIRST SIGHT (33) took the field along, closely pursued by Reiteration who went way too fast for his own good early in first time blinkers.

Midas Touch was held up in a rather distant last of the four runners behind the speed duel but moved up readily when asked to do so. He was clearly green in the closing stages as he had his head too high and didn't look to be entirely focused on running. But he picked up second placed Address Unknown quite rapidly inside the final furlong and went by him without trouble to score by two lengths, ridden out.

Midas Touch is a typical Coolmore colt in that he's big, good-bodied, muscular and mature. He's deep chested and has a pretty long stride, suggesting stamina for a mile and a half.

On his debut Midas Touch lobbed along in third place in a seven furlong Gowran Park maiden run on fast ground. He was ridden along quite vigorously from the entrance to the straight, two and a half furlongs out. But it was only in the final hundred yards that he began to make any inroads, closing in on the runner up while still clearly full or run as they passed the line. The winner was subsequent Group 1 scorer Jan Vermeer.

Next time out on heavy ground in a Curragh maiden over the same trip, he took a slight bump at the start and found himself behind a wall of horses for most of the race. However when a gap opened a furlong and a half out he strolled through it and ambled clear to win by seven lengths, only running as hard at the end as you'd normally see in a morning gallop. He clearly had plenty in reserve.

He ran a tenth of a second slower than the fastest of five races at the same distance on the card but came home 1.3 seconds faster over the last half mile. When I adjust for this it points to a solid Listed class performance - which is quite something seeing how comfortably he scored.

On his final juvenile start in the Group 1 Criterium International over a mile on very soft ground at Saint-Cloud Midas Touch once more finished third to stablemate Jan Vermeer. That day he did his usual thing of lobbing along in third, moved up to within half a length of the front running winner just as they entered the straight and came to the stands rail which is the right place to be on soft ground at Saint-Cloud. However from there he ran rather green and drifted off the rail towards the centre of the course and the slower ground. In addition he didn't look to be getting through the very soft ground at all well. He'd done so at the Curragh but it seemed a problem this time when asked to really stretch out fully.

It was a similar story in a one mile gallop for Aidan O'Brien's top middle distance horses held at the Curragh on March 21st on heavy ground. Midas Touch went pretty well there, finishing fifth of ten, beaten four and a quarter lengths. But his rider came back saying he felt Midas Touch wanted much better ground, which of course he got at Leopardstown.

This was the fastest Derby Trial we've seen so far. It suggests Midas Touch has a real chance at Epsom.

However it's worth pointing out that Midas Touch was a last minute substitute for Mikhail Glinka who had to skip the race due to a stone bruise.

If At First Sight has done as good a job of pacemaking for Mikhail Glinka in the Ballysax Stakes as he did for Midas Touch here I have no doubt Mikhail Glinka would have won that race impressively. And seeing that he clearly has more gears than Midas Touch I'm equally certain he would have won this race just as impressively had he been able to line up. As a result he would now be favourite for the Derby rather than being a 33-1 shot in the ante-post betting.

I do hope Mikhail Glinka makes the line up at Epsom because I'm now pretty sure he's the best of Aidan O'Brien's three year olds. But if he doesn't I'll be giving serious consideration to Midas Touch.

Runner up ADDRESS UNKNOWN (39) is clearly a smart horse as well. He was just as well suited by the searching early pace as he's a little one-paced on fast ground. He just couldn't go with the winner when he ran by him inside the last furlong.

Address Unknown is a strong, scopey, rangy colt with a very long, machine-like stride that fairly eats up the ground and shows knee action.

On his first start Address Unknown got upset at the start, missed the start and ran a clunker. But next time out he won very nicely when stepped up to a mile on Dundalk's Polytrack. He was pulled back to seventh early on after breaking on terms this time and pulled for the first couple of furlongs against the slightly slow early pace. He settled down thereafter and was clearly moving best from quite some way out. He had to be manouvered around a bit to find a run entering the straight but a gap opened and he was going so strongly he quickly powered through it, using his big stride to surge away from his rivals while clearly moving pretty darned quick.

His final time was 1.1 seconds slower than the winner of the fastest race on the card, an open handicap, but he covered the last three furlongs 1.5 seconds faster, which is pretty remarkable. I have a pretty reliable formula for adjusting final times based on how strong a hose finishes over the last three furlongs. And this tells me that in a more truly run race Address Unknown would have earned a rating of 37 from me which is Group 2 class for a late season two year old.

The second horse in that race hasn't run since. But the third, fourth and fifth all went on to win next time out, showing how strong it was.

Trainer Dermot Weld commented afterwards “He’s a nice colt and had been doing things right at home. So we fancied him going to Leopardstown. Unfortunately, he got very upset at the start and in the stalls. He gave himself a fright and ran no race. Today, the plan was to give him time and get him settled, to educate him and let him enjoy his race. He traveled well and picked up when I asked him. He’s a nice prospect for next year.”

On his seasonal debut Address Unknown ran a pretty big race in the Ballysax Stakes.

In that race his jockey made a tactical error in easing him back to last for the first few furlongs as the early pace was slow and this meant he was asked to gain ground when it quickened.

Entering the straight Address Unknown had gradually edged forward to be fifth on the rail by two and a quarter lengths. With a furlong and a half to go he was asked to quicken up and take a narrow gap. He moved forward towards it but lacked the pace to take it in time before it closed and had to be eased back again. At that stage Mikhail Glinka ranged up on his outside, neatly boxing him in completely. This forced Address Unknown's jockey to stop riding completely throughout the final furlong. He passed the post in fifth, beaten just under two lengths.

It's important to bear in mind with such incidents that horses which get 'hampered' are not always simply victims. More often they lack the acceleration required to take gaps that are only available for a few seconds. As a result they get into trouble repeatedly until they're stepped up in distance and are able to race at a pace that's not close to their maximum, meaning they have more speed to call on to take gaps.

Racing on soft ground has the same effect on such horses as it slows down the pace and leaves them more scope for acceleration. It also expands the lengths between the runners, leaving more room to manouver.

Couple this with the knee action that Address Unknown exhibits and there was a clear concern about the fast ground.

Address Unknown's dam scored her sole win on soft ground. And I can't help but feel that what I wrote about him before the Ballysax was confirmed by his performance. I said before that race 'My feeling is that since Address Unknown's stride is so long and shows a little knee action and because he surges rather than accelerates quickly he could well be best with a bit of cut in the ground.'

It now seems to me that Address Unknown's stride actually shows more than just a little knee action and that his lack of push-button acceleration once more saw him get beat on a surface that's too fast for him. Trainer Dermot Weld said after the race he would have appreciated some cut in the ground too.

I'll be very interested to see how much Address Unknown improves when he encounters softer ground. Right now I can only tag him as a borderline Group 1 horse. But he could be a bit better than that when it's softer, especially when he gets the chance to go a mile and a half.

Finally it's worth noting that Aidan O'Brien has found a real gem of a pacemaker in Address Unknown. He was able to set a proper Group 1 pace and yet only finish about five lengths further back than he would have if ridden with more restraint. If the stable can find another pacemaker to do duties in the earlier part of the Derby they'll have a terrific tag team to set the race up for the out and out mile and a half horses like Midas Touch and Mikhail Glinka that will represent their main chances.

TEN FURLONGS STILL LOOKS SHORT FOR FAME AND GLORY

FAME AND GLORY (41) won the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes in decent time. He came from behind a searching gallop set by his pacemaker Dixie Music to win readily without having to be pushed for maximum effort.

However I have to say that ten furlongs just doesn't look like a natural distance for Fame And Glory. He's a big, strong, long striding sort that looks and runs like an out and out twelve furlong horse.

Perhaps Dixie Music and most likely another pacemaker Windsor Palace will combine to make the ten and a half furlongs of the Tattersalls Rogers Gold Cup a sufficient stamina test for Fame And Glory. But personally I'll be looking elsewhere for the winner and betting that Fame And Glory won't be winning again at Group 1 level till he goes back up to a mile and a half.

Runner Up RECHARGE (37) had raced over a mile in five of his six previous starts. But he looked to be having even a bit more difficulty than the winner coping with the pace over ten furlongs. His jockey had him under pressure soon after entering the straight, clearly wanting to try and steal first run on Fame And Glory. But he lacked the pace to do the job and was passed rather quickly.

Recharge is a really strong horse that's always looked like a mile and a half runner to me. I reckon he'll do better over that distance.