CELTIC WARRIOR A VERY SMART JUVENILE HURDLER

CELTIC WARRIOR (38) won a juvenile hurdle in seriously fast time at Thurles and now ranks as much the best of his age we've seen so far on my ratings. He's scheduled to go for a Grade 3 contest at Fairyhouse next month where I would not care to oppose him. It's kind of a shame he seems to prefer soft ground, otherwise I'd be nominating him as a good ante-post bet for the Triumph Hurdle. That's how fast he ran here.

Runner MINE'SASMALLONE (36) pulled well clear of the rest and looks set to prove competitive in pattern company over timber. Meanwhile there are some lesser races to be won. If he sidesteps the winner and goes for an ordinary race next time he should win.

LOUNAOS RUNS BIG

LOUNAOS (37) was promoted to favourite for the Triumph Hurdle following her win in fast time at Navan. Clearly she's at least as good over hurdles as she was on the flat. Faster ground doesn't look to be a problem for her either. The thing is fillies tend to run about three lengths a mile slower than colts and geldings, so this is probably as fast as she is. We've already seen one male juvenile run a little faster by my estimates in Celtic Warrior. So smart as she is, I wouldn't go betting her for the Triumph just yet. Having said that, she ought to be able to win in pattern company over jumps without any problem.

SOPHIST (36) pulled well clear of the rest of the field and should be franking the form very soon.

FOOTY FACTS COULD BE ANYTHING

FOOTY FACTS (38) ran a very decent time for a novice hurdler to take the Monksfield Hurdle at Navan. He's now won five of his seven starts (including his point to point win). And his two losses were over an inadequate two miles. He keeps travelling strongly in his races and winning by a wide margin, so at this stage he could be anything. Hopefully we'll know more about him after he's contested a bigger race over the same course and distance in three weeks time.

CANE BRAKE USEFUL IN MUD

CANE BRAKE (38) won what my speed ratings say was a slightly sub-par renewal of the Troytown Chase. He may well be able to run a bit faster though as he won easing up. Certainly he likes mud, having now won six of the nine times he's run on soft or heavy going before the turn of the year at two and a half miles or more. He might just be able to follow up in the even more valuable Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown on December 27th if he gets his ground.

IKTITAF STILL DOESN'T LOOK A CHAMPION HURDLER

IKTITAF (40) kept up his winning run in the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown. But I still need a lot of convincing that he's a viable Champion Hurdle candidate. I want to see him run faster. But more importantly I want to see him handle the kind of firm ground that almost always prevails at the Cheltenham Festival nowadays. His form is mostly on soft ground. The only time he ran on genuinely fast going was at Listowel where he turned in much his worst performance.

I'm not at all concerned at the rather distant third place finish of BRAVE INCA (36). Brave Inca has always been much better off the stronger pace generated by bigger fields. True he won a couple of races in small fields when Tony McCoy got him to make his own running. But it's his form in bigger fields that's truly outstanding. Brave Inca's only loss in his last ten starts in fields of ten or more was a half length loss in the Champion Hurdle. He still sets the standard for all other hurdlers to be measured against.

WHEN THE GOING GETS TOUGH NICKNAME GETS GOING

It takes a very smart horse to beat CENTRAL HOUSE (42) early in the season but NICKNAME (42) managed the job in the Fortia Chase.

The thing which seems to dictate Nickname’s form is the going. He’s won five of the last six times he’s run on what my going allowances indicate was genuinely heavy ground. He did run fourth in the French Champion Hurdle as a four year old on going that the race time indicated was good. But that was over three and a quarter miles. Over two and a half miles or less I just don’t think anything but really soft ground provides enough of a stamina test for Nickname.

Nickname will probably do best if he’s kept to Ireland as the going is rarely going to be soft enough for him in Britain. Personally I’d like to see him given a shot at three miles as his French form suggests he will get the distance. But that can wait. Right now at two and a half miles or even two on a very stiff track he’s a very hard horse to get by in the mud.

WELL TUTORED SHOULD WIN AGAIN IN BETTER COMPANY

WELL TUTORED (39) won a rather hot handicap chase at Naas in a time that would win many Grade 2 events. He's young, lightly-raced and obviously highly progressive. At this stage it's hard to fathom exactly what his preferences are. All I can say is that he's a whole lot better than his official rating and looks set to win a big handicap chase sometime this Winter.

CATCH ME JUST KEEPS ON WINNING

CATCH ME (37) extended his unbeaten Irish run to four when winning a Naas Novice hurdle in pattern class time. So far his Irish wins have all been on soft going, but his fastest run in Germany actually came on good ground. Therefore I wouldn't worry too much about him not handling the likely faster ground at the Cheltenham Festival. It's the opposition one should be concerned about. Catch Me needs to improve a fair bit to win at the big meeting. I'm not going to say he won't do so while he keeps on winning like this, but I wouldn't be in a rush to take the relatively short prices the bookies are offering about him for Cheltenham either.

FEMALE SHOULD BE GIVEN ANOTHER SHOT AT PATTERN COMPANY

FEMALE (36) only got beat five lengths in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival in March and has improved with each of her three hurdles outings. She won in Listed class time at Thurles last week and deserves another shot at pattern company before she's retired to stud (which apparently is to happen soon).

OMAS GLEN (35) ran a good race for a point to point winner going two miles to chase the winner home. She will surely improve over longer distances. But even over the minimum NH trip she'd be rather a good thing to take a similar race next time.

BEEF OR SALMON STILL BRILLIANT IN SMALL FIELDS

I knocked BEEF OR SALMON (43) a couple of times last season after he'd lost in the kind of small fields which previously he'd been almost unbeatable in. But I should have listened to his trainer who said "at this stage of the horse's career he doesn't quite have the speed on good ground" (or less than three miles I would add). Back on soft ground and in a small field over three miles, Beef Or Salmon lowered the colours of Gold Cup winner WAR OF ATTRITION (43) by a neck in the Grade 1 James Nicholson Wine Merchant Champion Chase at Down Royal.

Throw out his runs on yielding or faster ground or at shorter than three miles since the 03-04 season plus two races where he was reportedly sick or unfit and Beef or Salmon's remaining chases show twelve wins out of sixteen. But it's hard to get away from the fact that three of the four losses came in fields bigger than eight. Beef Or Salmon has yet to win a chase with more than eight runners, and it's getting a bit late in his career to expect him to change that particular stat. Still, on soft ground, in a small field it does appear that Beef Or Salmon is every bit as good as he ever was and well nigh impossible to beat.

War Of Attrition, as ever, ran a huge speed rating. And, as I've mentioned before, chasers that habitually run fast are invariably best with 5 weeks plus between their completed starts after their first two runs of the season. Therefore I do hope War Of Atrrition isn't given another run before Christmas. If he is and it comes much before the middle of December I'd be inclined to oppose him.

ARCH REBEL WORTH ANOTHER SHOT OVER HURDLES

ARCH REBEL (39) has earned a whole string of Group class speed ratings from me and did so again when taking a strong renewal of the Trigo Stakes at Leopardstown. I know trainer Noel Meade thinks the horse is better on the flat, but maybe there are other explanations for his poor hurdles starts. Perhaps he needs to be fresh to go the longer distance of National Hunt races. Maybe he's not good at jumping in big fields. Or it could be he's at his best from April to December. After all he did cruise home in a Grace 2 race on his first start over timber and not many horses do that.

FOOTY FACTS IMPROVES FOR THE STEP UP TO THREE MILES

FOOTY FACTS (38) won his only point to point in fast time. So it makes sense that he should improve massively when stepped up from two miles to three on his second outing over hurdles. He duly did when taking a Listed novice hurdle at Cork in fine style.

In the long run Footy Facts is clearly a very good chasing prospect. Meanwhile though he's going to be tough to beat in three mile plus novice hurdles.