LIKE A BUTTERFLY AS GOOD AS EVER

LIKE-A-BUTTERFLY (37) won in good time on her chasing debut at Naas despite a lengthy absence and being 25 kilos overweight according to her trainer Christy Roche. He said afterwards that the mare needs cut in the ground and he would prefer not to risk her on fast ground again. This seems logical seeing that she's lost all three times she's run on good or faster ground and won ten out of ten on softer. Anyone thinking of backing her for the Arkle ought to bear this in mind seeing how the drainage system at Cheltenham virtually guarantees firm ground at the Festival these days.

Last year trainer Ted Walsh complained about the lack of novice events over longer trips available for JACK HIGH (38). At Navan last Sunday we had the chance to see why Walsh was so keen to try the horse over longer trips when he won the valuable Troytown Chase in fast time.

Jack High might well have won all three times he's run over fences at Navan but for falling when closing five out on one occasion. Clearly he is suited to the track, but I suspect it's the very testing nature of the course that has brought out the best in him over shorter trips. At three miles plus elsewhere I'd bet on him being able to reproduce this form. Indeed at Navan or the equally stiff Naas, or over three miles elsewhere, he's now won five of his last eight completed starts on ground softer than yielding. Clearly he's a smart horse given a test of stamina and soft ground.

SWEET KILN (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've awarded a novice hurdler so far this season when taking the Grade 3 Monksfield Novice Hurdle at Navan. This mare had some very smart bumper form, including a 14 length defeat of The Alamo, who is a useful horse according to my ratings. Whether or not she's an out and out mudlark like stablemate Solerina remains to be seen. All I can say at this stage is that she's about as fast, which is quite something.

PETERTHEKNOT (38) ran a good race in second and has been unlucky to bump up against top class performers when running second in his last two starts. My speed ratings indicate he's perfectly capable of taking a Graded novice hurdle and that he'd be a cert in an unlisted contest.

Similar comments apply to TASMAN (38) who stayed on strongly after getting outpaced to take third.

MOSCOW FLYER AS FAST AS EVER

Azertyuiop (33) earned rave reviews for his seasonal debut win in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. But it was his old rival MOSCOW FLYER (42) who ran the faster time a few days later.

The speed rating I gave Moscow Flyer for his win in the Fortia Chase is as big as any he's earned from me. So it's clear he's still just as fast at ten years of age.

You have to go back four long years to find the last time Moscow Flyer failed to win a race in which he completed the course. So I'd be wary of opposing him in the Tingle Creek at Sandown next time. I'd also think hard before siding against him in the King George if he goes that route.

It's tempting to be cynical about Moscow Flyer's prospects of getting the three miles of the King George. But things look a whole lot better if you look at his pedigree. It turns out that all the next five best chasers produced by his sire Moscow Society got three miles. His dam and her two half brothers both scored over three miles as well.

MURPHY'S CARDINAL (38) strolled home by 20 lengths from a smart field in the Grade 3 Killultagh Properties Ltd Chase at Down Royal. His time as decent for the class and he clearly has the potential to run faster as he won easily and is now unbeaten in six starts.

Trainer Noel Chance had a similar sort of horse a couple of years ago called Looks LIke Trouble. He trained Looks Like Trouble to win the Intermediate Chase at Sandown's December fixture and Chetlenham's Pillar Chase before taking the Gold Cup in March. He aims to shoot for the first two races with Murphy's Cardinal, and I'm not going to say he won't take the third at this stage.

The Champion Chase on the same card was run at a crawl in the early stages. Nonetheless BEEF OR SALMON (36) still managed to post a reasonable time to win it.

I have a theory about Beef Or Salmon having trouble measuring his fences when there are other horses crowding him at the jumps. For this reason I suspect he is at his best over fences in really small fields. Throw out the one race where he was coughing and his record in chases with eight runners or less shows eight wins from eight tries. In chases with bigger fields he's lost four times out of four - usually through jumping badly. If my theory is right, there is of course one race that Beef Or Salmon won't be winning, and that's the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The success of GARIVONNIAN (36) in the Pierse Group Cork Grand National highlights the shortage of chases over marathon trips in Ireland. In a career spanning 73 races, the only previous time Garivonnian had run over longer than three miles was when seventh in this year's Irish Grand National. Clearly the horse stays really well, so the Troytown chase, nominated by his connections as his next target, looks a logical move, seeing it's over the very stiff three miles at Navan. He'd be even more interesting if he shipped over to Britain for one of the many chases they run over three and a half miles and more.

GUINEAS PRICE FOR FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND IS WAY TOO BIG

A week after reporting that Motivator was the fastest two year old I have to revise that statement in the light of the time FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND (40) ran at Leopardstown last Monday.

Aiden O'Brien is clearly right in what he told reporters after the race; Footstepsinthesand is a serious horse. Equally clearly, given the horse's pedigree, he's going to at least as good on fast ground. As I see it, he is far and away the best prospect for the 2000 Guineas. Indeed, I rate him a good deal faster than most champion two year olds we've seen in the last decade. The 20-1 generally available about him for the colt's first classic is incredibly generous.

GAFF (38) is also a very interesting prospect. He got to within two lengths of Footstepsinthesand and pulled well clear of the useful mudlark Clash Of The Ash who ran third. He is apparently held in high regard by Dermot Weld, and this run validates that opinion. I look forward to getting a nice price about him in a Guineas Trial next year and fully expect to see him prove competitive in Group 1 contests.

CAIRDEAS (39) is another horse that Dermot Weld has a big opinion of. And his opinion was again confirmed when Cairdeas ran out an impressive winner of a Listed race at Leopardstown. Weld has handled Cairdeas with kid gloves till now, giving him the summer off because he felt he needed time to grow. Next year I can see Cairdeas repaying Weld's consideration by winning good Group races.

Aiden O'Brien turned out another potential classic prospect in YEHUDI (35) who won the Listed Eurefield stakes at the Curragh in Group class time. His time was some way off that of Footstepsinthesand, and Clash Of The Ash, who'd finished 10.3 lengths per mile behind Footstpesinthesand was only 6.4 lengths a mile behind Yehudi. From this it looks like Yehudi is Group 3 class rather than Group 1.