LINE BALL LOOKS NAILED ON IN THE DRINMORE

You rarely see a horse run as impressively on its chasing debut as LINE BALL (39) did at Fairyhouse. He jumped brilliantly and was always cruising in a very strongly run race. Coming up to the last he was simply shaken up and surged clear. He came right away on the run-in, showing impressive acceleration for a chaser to win with his ears pricked and full of run.

This was the fastest run by a novice chaser so far this season and it earned Line Ball the biggest speed rating I can recall giving a chase debutante at a longer trip in years. He's a really good looking horse that trainer Christy Roche has always rated highly. I can see why.

I won't hear of Line Ball getting beat in the Drinmore Chase over the same course in a few days time, and that 25-1 you can get about him for the Sun Alliance Chase looks awfully tempting.

The big question concerning the Sun Alliance Chase will obviously be whether Line Ball will stay three miles. He's by Good Thyne who tends to get three mile chasers and is the first foal of an unraced dam. His dam is a half sister to the brilliant Mighty Mogul who I always thought would have stayed three miles if he'd had the chance to run it in his short career. So basically the pedigree evidence backs up the opinion of Christy Roche who believes three miles will be no problem for Line Ball. Certainly it's hard to believe that the horse would have done anything but increase his advantage if another three furlongs had been stuck on the end of the Fairyhouse race.

I see Line Ball as one of the most exciting new prospects to have emerged this jumps season. And I'd bet on the distant second and third PONTIUM (36) and NANNY NUNNY NUC (36) franking this form soon.

DARK ARTIST IMPRESSES ON CHASING DEBUT

DARK ARTIST (37) looked like an experienced chaser against novices when winning impressively on his first start over fences at Thurles.

Throughout the race Dark Artist was always going a step quicker than his rivals were comfortable with. He kept pinging the fences while his rivals were having a torrid time behind, scrambling over the jumps at a pace they really didn't want to go. Every time one of them tried to move up to him he'd put in a bold leap, gain lengths in the air and leave them trailing again.

As they started the home turn, where there's a long run to the next fence, the jockeys on the eventual second and third Albanov (35) and Scottsirish (32) decided to take the opportunity to have a cut at Dark Artist. They are both useful hurdlers and used their speed to close right up to the leader on the flat. But then two more fences came up again and Dark Artist gained lengths in the air at each of them, quickly putting Albanov and Scottsirish in trouble again.

By the time they entered the straight Dark Artist's Paul Carberry was able to take a look back over his shoulder. He would have seen that his rivals were toiling in his wake. The horse proceeded to pop the final two fences and went on to win well.

Dark Artist did tire on the run-in, which allowed the runner up to close the gap at the finish. For this reason I'd like to see him cut back to two miles rather than step up to two and a half.

Few novice chasers are able to jump well at the pace Dark Artist set here. So I'd bet on him proving competitive in the best two mile novice chases. The Baileys Arkle and the Cheltenham Arkle must be his obvious targets, and he'll surely go close in at least one of them.

ROYAL COUNTY STAR HASN'T STOPPED WINNING YET

ROYAL COUNTY STAR (37) didn't run spectacularly fast to win the Troytown Chase. But he ran as fast as the average winner of a big handicap chase and I'd be surprised if he can't run a fair bit faster. I say this because despite being almost stopped in his tracks when colliding with News Item on landing at the second last he picked up the leader GAZZA'S GIRL (37) with ease, powering up and past her to win full of running.

Royal County Star has now won all four of his completed starts at two and a half miles or more (including his point to point success) and still looks set to be very well handicapped as he won this off a mark of just 124. As I see it he's nailed on to win another big handicap chase this season. It's worth noting that trainer Tony Martin says he's concerned about running him on softer ground and is considering laying him off till the Spring with the Irish National as his target. In my experience trainers know what going suits their horses. And although Royal County Star has won on soft and heavy at two miles his victories at longer trips have all been on good or yielding.

Seeing how well he won here made be a believer in Royal County Star. If they were offering ante-post betting on the Irish National right now I'd be sorely tempted to have a bit on him.

The admirable GAZZA'S GIRL (37) ran as fast as chasing mares are normally capable of to finish a gallant second. It seems a shame that there aren't mares only chases beyond the novice stage. Surely it's time a few were staged with a couple of valuable ones chucked in to encourage mares like Gazza's Girl to be kept in training.

MERDEKA had run faster than the winner previously. But he was tiring badly when falling at the second last and now looks to have proven conclusively that he does not stay three miles. He's been beaten 29 lengths plus all four times he's tried three miles but has won or run a big race in all but one of his nine starts at shorter trips. He's very well handicapped on a mark of just 131 as he's run fast enough to win almost any big handicap chase. Back over 2m 6f or less I'd bet on him winning something decent sooner rather than later.

PARSONS PISTOL STAYS ALL DAY

You don't often see a horse that's under strong pressure half a mile from home finish strongly to win. But that's what PARSONS PISTOL (36) did when beating the useful CUCHULAINS SON (36) in a good novice hurdle over 2m 6.5 furlongs.

I got the impression that Parsons Pistol would have been happy to go round again. Certainly he won this race purely on stamina. Already a winner over fences between the flags, he's a pretty tall chasing sort rather than a hurdler on looks. If he's going to win something decent over timber it will surely be over three miles or more. The quotes for him to win the Ballymore Properties over a shorter trip at Cheltenham look silly to me.

If there was a Cheltenham horse in this race it was surely Cuchulains Son. He's a classy looking sort that's built to produce a good burst of acceleration and he used it to close up rapidly to the leaders rounding the home turn. He was a close second two out but landed too steeply and lost ground. He again landed a bit steep at the last but still got into the lead before the winner ran him out of it narrowly close home.

Cuchulains Son was a good fourth in the Champion Bumper at the Punchestown Festival back in April. So he'd be interesting if his trainer Noel Meade went through with the idea of running him on the Poly at Dundalk which he suggested earlier. Meade says the horse won't be suited by softer ground (which is normal for a horse with a turn of foot) so Dundalk might well be a good option as the physical properties of Polytrack basically mimic those of good to firm turf.

In any event I'd bet on Cuchulains Son proving competitive in pattern company over hurdles when he gets his ground, which most likely will be in the Spring.

WILL MOSSBANK HOLD HIS FORM THIS TIME?

MOSSBANK (38) earned rave reviews for winning the Clonmel Oil Chase. But I wouldn't want to be betting him ante-post for the Hennessy. Like a lot of chasers that are relatively narrow and light-framed he is best when fresh, and he won't be if he lines up at Newbury.

So far Mossbank has failed to win beyond his first two starts of the season. He's now won seven times out of eight over jumps on his first two starts of the season (I'm including his point to point win). His sole loss was by a short head to a horse that went on to place twice in Grade 1 company soon after. Mossbank has failed to win all nine times after his first couple of outings.

Trainer Michael Hourigan told reporters after Mossbank's first start this season "He is obviously best fresh, so we will space out his races this season." This suggests he's unlikely to line up in the Hennessy anyway.

This was Mossbank's best run yet according to my speed ratings. But he has a way to go before we can talk about him as a serious candidate for Grade 1 events. He's run unplaced all six times he's tried Grade 1 company to date and until he shows more I'd still bet against him at the top level. Having said that I have to concede he's improving and was very impressive here. So if he's rested for at least six weeks I'd respect his chances against anything next time.

NEVER COMPROMISE SHOULD RAID FRANCE

NEVER COMPROMISE (39) won the Risk Of Thunder Chase over Punchestown's Banks course for the second year in a row beating HEADSONTHEGROUND (38) who I rate the best Cross Country horse at longer trips.

It seems clear that the three miles of this race is as far as Never Compromise wants to go. If he were mine I'd be planning a series of raids on France where they stage many more Cross Country races than in Britain and Ireland combined - most of which are run over three miles or less.

Headsontheground is steadily developing into a very able replacement for when Spot Thedifference finally retires. He's a young horse for this unusual discipline of racing and will be very tough to beat in long distance Cross Country events.

JAZZ MESSENGER NOT QUITE CHAMPION HURDLE CLASS

It might seem silly to knock the form of a horse that's just won his second Grade 1 hurdle. But I have to say that despite his win in last week's Maplewood Developments Hurdle at Punchestown, JAZZ MESSENGER (39) continues to run just a bit slower than is normally required to win the Champion Hurdle. In a truly run race he had to be driven out to beat FARMER BROWN (38) who consistently runs Grade 3 class times. Jazz Messenger has been beaten every time he's tackled one of the very top hurdlers, and I'd bet on that continuing in future.

JAAMID A SMART STAYING HURDLER

JAAMID (38) showed his best ever form when stepped up to two and a half miles for the first time at Cork last Sunday. He blew home by eight lengths from a decent field, clocking a Grade 3 time in the process.

It now seems clear that Jaamid is best when given a test of stamina. He's won four of the last five times he's run on heavy ground, a very stiff track or at two and a half miles. He didn't used to settle, but he does now and is beginning to show what he's capable of.

LE TOSCAN ONE OF THE BETTER NOVICE CHASERS

LE TOSCAN (36) jumped well and stayed on well to win a strongly run novice chase at Cork on his first run over fences. It's easy to argue that he won't stay more than the 2m 5f of this contest because he flopped the only time he tried three miles and none of his dam's other eight foals to race scored at a longer trip. But that's misleading. Le Toscan's siblings all ran in France and French jumpers almost never get the chance to run three miles or more unless they run Grade 1 contests. So it's unwise to draw any conclusions about their stamina until they've tried longer trips locally. Le Toscan's bad run at three miles was preceded by another bad run at two and a half. The most likely conclusion therefore is that he was out of form for some reason.

Right now all I can say is that Le Toscan is one of the better novice chasers on my ratings.

Runner-up CALLHERWHATULIKE (36) had finished second to Kazal in a Grade 2 hurdle on her previous run and showed here she's as good over fences. Like most mares she's not that big, but she's obviously able to jump fences. There's a Grade 3 for mares over two and a half miles coming up at Thurles in January. No doubt that will be her immediate target. She'll be hard to beat there and should pick up a novice chase before then whether she goes for a mares only contest or another one against males like this.

CHEYENNE STAR IS A USEFUL MILER

CHEYENNE STAR (38) won a Listed fillies' event on Dundalk's Polytrack in unusually fast time for the class. But for one photo finish loss she would now have won all five times she's run a mile on a fast surface.

It's probably a good move to run Cheyenne Star at the Dubai Carnival as she'll get her ground all the time there. The only drawback is that there are no big fillies' races at the meeting, so she's going to have to take on colts. On this form though she's more than capable of holding her own against males at Group 3 level.

FRENCH ACCORDION JOINS THE BIG BOYS

I thought I had FRENCH ACCORDION (40) figured out before he ran in the Fortia Chase. I reckoned he needed a tight (10f or less in circumference) and dead flat track to produce his best. Previously he'd won five of the six times he's run on such tracks and was a close and unlucky second to a smart rival in his only loss. In fourteen starts on other courses he had never reached the first three.

It now seems obvious Nolan is right. After all French Accordion has now won the last five times he's run on officially good or faster ground. He did win a Grade 3 hurdle though on soft at Tipperary. So maybe he needs the fast ground simply because he lacks stamina. Perhaps he can last home on a very tight track whatever the going.

In any event French Accordion looks real value at Ladbrokes' 16-1 for the Arkle on this run. I wouldn't care to bet any novice to beat him on fast ground at two miles.

BREAKING SILENCE IS A SMART NOVICE

BREAKING SILENCE (38) is obviously a very decent chaser at around two and a half miles. He scored a hat trick when making all the running at Naas.

An unusually good jumper for a novice, Breaking Silence will now be laid off till the Spring at which time I imagine his target will be the Jewson Novice's Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks a good prospect for that.

I don't know why MERDEKA (37) ran three clunkers at the end of last season. But he showed here that he's ready to fulfill all the promise he showed earlier when winning a Grade 2 hurdle and hosing up in a novice chase. He was staying on well at the finish, so a step back up to three miles looks a logical move. I guess he won't make the cut for the Hennessy, but he'll surely be taking a big handicap chase some time this Winter.

EARTH MAGIC FRANKS CLEW BAY LODGE FORM

EARTH MAGIC (37) earned a big speed rating from me for the second time in a row when staying on strongly to take a decent Conditions hurdle at Naas. I don't know quite why he's improved this season but clearly he has. And stamina is obviously his strong suit, so a step up to three miles might well be a good idea.

The most interesting thing for me about this run is that it franks the big speed rating I gave CLEW BAY LODGE for beating Earth Magic at the same course last month. I now await that one's next start with even greater interest.

JUSTIFIED SHOULD STICK TO THREE MILES

It looks like Ruby Walsh is right to say that TARANIS (40) disliked being left out in front when The Listener got rid of his jockey early on in the the James Nicholason Wine Merchant Champion Chase at Down Royal. With three to jump Taranis looked like he really wanted to pull himself up and it took a lot of hard driving from Walsh to keep him going.

All the way from before three out it kept looking like JUSTIFIED (38) was going to get past Taranis. But Walsh rode like a demon and kept his mount going to hold his challenger at bay.

MEGANS JOY IS SERIOUSLY FAST

MEGANS JOY (39) clocked a seriously fast time when running away with the Grade 3 Scarvagh House Stud Mares' Novice Hurdle at Down Royal. Indeed this run marks her out as the fastest novice hurdler of either sex we've seen in Britain or Ireland this term.

I concede that it's very early in the season. But novice hurdlers don't run much faster than this. The best ratings the top ones earn from me each year are around 40. Clearly therefore Megans Joy has a real shot of beating males in the top novice events.

Normally whatever wins the Royal Bond Hurdle is considered the top early season novice. But whatever wins that this year is going to have to get by Megans Joy before earning that status. And it's not going to be easy. Megans Joy looked like she could run faster when winning at Down Royal, and she's already run fast enough to beat just about any novice.

Runner up MY VALLEY (36) had won her three previous starts. I'd bet on her franking this form by winning a mares only Listed or Graded hurdle before long.

GEM DALY SHOULD WIN AGAIN

Noel Meade is having an extraordinarily good run with his hurdling debutantes this season. He made it nine wins from twenty one tries with horses on their first start over timber this term when GEM DALY (36) jumped well to win in fast time at Punchestown.

Gem Daly did two of the three things that horses which have required wind operations don't tend to do in winning on an undulating track and on soft ground. But that doesn't mean I'd bet him to do the third thing horses with wind operations are poor at, namely winning when he's not fresh. I'd bet him to win or go close next time out but then to need at least weeks between his completed starts thereafter in order to run well again.

Gem Daly is built and bred for chasing, so I imagine there's a decent possibility he'll be sent over the bigger jumps this season, seeing that he's already rising seven and French breds like him tend to hit their peak form and also deteriorate earlier than Irish breds. Whatever he does I see him earning black type this Winter.

RI NA DEISE IMPROVES

I don't know why RI NA DEISE (37) has improved to win his last two starts so well. I'd only be guessing with such a lightly-raced horse. All I can say is that he ran a pattern class time when winning a valuable handicap hurdle at Down Royal last week and is a good deal better than the handicapper has rated him. This being so I'd bet on him extending his winning sequence to three next time.

EZIMA IS TOP CLASS

I mentioned after she'd finished second to Hasanka in a photo finish at Galway that EZIMA (40) had run fast enough to win a Group 1 for fillies. Sure enough she's gone on to take her next two starts, the latest being the Trigo Stakes at Leopardstown where she again ran a time that would win a Group 1 for fillies.

This run makes Ezima look a very serious candidate for all the Group 1 middle distance races for fillies next year. In fact she ran so fast here that I'd like to see her give a shot against colts in a Group 1. Her performance also reflects great credit on Hasanka who I do hope stays in training too.

O'HANA CAN MOP UP MARES ONLY HURDLES

When a horse runs as fast as O'HANA (36) did to take a maiden hurdle at Galway they're usually able to mop up Listed and Graded races over timber that are restricted to fillies and mares. I suspect that's going to be the case with this five year old who clearly excels in mud.

O'Hana ran fourth on her racecourse debut and has won both times she's encountered soft ground since. She's run unplaced all five times she's encountered good or faster ground.

This race was only two miles but I'd be surprised if O'Hana doesn't turn out to need further to be fully effective. She's by Nononito who won the Group 1 Prix du Cadran (the French Gold Cup) on the flat and ran third in the French Champion Hurdle over three and a quarter miles. Her dam has yet to have another runner. But she's a half sister to a two and a half mile chaser and is by Chamberlin who tends to get three mile chasers.

Runner-up DECOY DADDY (36) ran a big race on his hurdling debut to run such a useful performer to a neck. In doing so he pulled well clear of the rest. You won't get much of a price about him winning a maiden hurdle next time but it's probably worth taking as he looks set to be competitive in pattern company over timber on my ratings.

LARKWING A SMART STAYER

LARKWING (36) won a Qualified Rider's race at Galway from a very decent field of pattern class hurdlers in good time. He's a horse that puzzles me. But I'm now thinking he's probably best on right-handed tracks and simply needs a serious test of stamina. When he gets it he runs big.

I see Larkwing winning a decent hurdle race over two and a half miles or more this Winter, probably on a right-handed track.

NOLLAIG AND OUR MATTI ARE SMART BUMPER HORSES

NOLLAIG (35) ran second in an unusually fast Bumper race on his racecourse debut last month. Now he's gone and run even faster to win another Bumper at Clonmel. He looks like a very decent recruit and should be a good bet next time whether he sticks to this type of race or switches to hurdling.

OUR MATTI (35) only just went under in a photo while pulling well clear of the rest. He's by the top Bumper sire Supreme Leader Our Matti, is with the top Bumper trainer Willie Mullins and has a dam who is a half sister to the smart French Chaser and Hurdler Bacarello who won five of his last eight starts on the flat before he went jumping.. It's a bit early to be talking of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper, but with this background Our Matti is certainly looking an interesting prospect.