PANDORAMA IS FREAKISHLY GOOD

PANDORAMA (43) earned the biggest speed rating I can recall giving a hurdling debutante in recent years when scoring at Navan a couple of week's back. Now he's gone and earned the biggest speed rating I can recall ever giving as novice hurdler period when cantering away with the Grade 2 Monksfield Novice Hurdle over the same course and distance.

As was the case last time, Pandorama's jockey, Paul Carberry, sat motionless throughout. The only time he really did anything was just before three out where he took a long look at runner up ALPHA RIDGE (33), the only horse that was able to go with him. It could be that Carberry taking his eye off the ball momentarily prompted Pandorama's only jumping error of the race at this flight. In any event Carberry nudged him to extend himself more over the last two, each of which he took well.

Pandorama was eased right down on the run in and won the race literally in a canter, just like he did before. I've no doubt that he could have added at least five lengths to his winning margin if he'd not been eased. And that would have enabled him to equal the biggest speed rating I've given a jumper in the last few seasons.

Clearly Pandorama is freakishly good. But this doesn't mean that the normal rules don't apply to him. There are some obvious concerns.

The first concern is that he does show knee action and his trainer has said he needs cut in the ground to produce his best. The second is that he's not really learning much about racing by having a series of what are no more than public exercise gallops. The third is that he is running without restraint and clocking very fast times in one race after another. This takes its toll even on a brilliant horse like him. He might just 'bounce', as American punters say, that is regress in form due to the effects of running really fast - unless he's now rested for five weeks or more.

Basically though I'm just quibbling. Right now I'd be scared to bet any horse, novice or not, at any distance at any track and on any ground over hurdles or fences to beat Pandorama. He is the best jumping prospect we have seen in years. If trainer Noel Meade avoids the temptation to run him on fast ground at one of the Festivals and keeps him fresh he could build up a huge winning sequence.

Alpha Ridge had won his previous three outings, including a Grade 3 by 25 lengths. And he did well to match strides with the brilliant winner for so long. He ended up getting beat 26 lengths but beat the rest of the field a distance. Against more normal opposition I'm sure he'd have clocked a pattern class time. Here he was simply run into the ground by an extraordinarily good rival.

NOTRE PERE STAYS ALL DAY

A few years ago I watched the world's most successful female jockey, Julie Krone, do something very clever in a race at Belmont Park. Her mount was an odds on favourite and had just been joined in the lead by a rival after a furlong. She sensed within a hundred yards that the rival was going too fast and quickly eased her mount back to a distant second even though the distance of the race was only six furlongs. It looked a risky and dramatic manouver from the stands, but it worked. The rival tired and her mount cruised home.

You don't often see a jockey able to think tactically like that during a race. Too much is happening. Last Sunday though I saw something similar in the Troytown Chase at Navan when Andrew Lynch on board NOTRE PERE (37) switched his mount sharply to the left after the sixth last fence. Chelsea Harbour had jumped across his mount at the previous two fences and Lynch clearly knew that the rail came out, narrowing the course, before the next jump, leaving far less room on his inside. So if Chelsea Harbour repeated the move he would have been in trouble. Sure enough he did, unseating his rider while carrying out the favourite Officier De Reserve. Lynch's shift of position kept his mount clear of the trouble.

I concede Notre Pere was going so smoothly and so much better than anything else that Andrew Lynch had plenty of scope to make the manouver. You could argue it was simply a prudent move on the part of a jockey whose mount was going so well he was simply taking no chances as any other rider would have done. But still, it impressed me, and it did get the horse out of trouble that would surely have cost him the race.

This ride will surely have won Andrew Lynch a few fans among Irish owners and trainers. So I'd bet on him getting better mounts in future. He certainly looks to have the talent to exploit the opportunity.

Notre Pere himself was always going a good deal better than any of his rivals right from the start. But he's a big old boat of a horse with masses of stamina and very little speed. He also has serious jumping ability, and it was this that enabled him to hold off the runner up OPERATION HOUDINI (37) when that one tried to get by him over the last two. He jumped them both very well indeed, gaining more ground than he won by while Operation Houdini basically scrambled over each time.

Notre Pere kept on rolling and looked like he could have gone around again. But he produced absolutely no acceleration at all despite his jockey's constant urging from the entrance to the straight.

Seeing how big and deep chested he is and how well he jumps and stays it's obvious the Grand National is the correct target for Notre Pere. But I would urge caution here. Horses that ran as novices the previous season almost never win the big Aintree race. And it has been more than a century since a French bred like Notre Pere scored. Besides the going is rarely heavy at Aintree because it's such a fast draining course.

Four of Notre Pere's five wins have come on heavy ground. The exception was that Grade 1 at Leopardstown last year where the novices went off at an unsustainable pace and all tired badly. It turned into an extreme test of stamina, and that suited Notre Pere fine. He 'needs a real slog' according to his trainer, and this race proved that once more.

Personally I'd be more inclined to steer Notre Pere towards the Welsh Grand National next month as he's far more likely to get his ground there. Over the longer trip there I've little doubt he could surpass this performance if the going was heavy.

Operation Houdini was unlucky to come up against such a smart mudlark here. If he'd jumped the last two as well as the winner he may well have passed the post first for the fourth time in his last four starts. He is clearly an improving young horse that is surely going to be winning another decent staying chase before long.

Third placed BALLISTRAW (31) is an interesting horse. He lost his racecourse debut in a point to point but would have won his next eight starts over two and a half miles plus if three half length or less losses had gone the other way. I think it's a fair bet he needed his next three starts as they followed a one year absence. He then won a good Grade 2 from the useful Knight Legend before finding the ground too fast in the Irish National.

Seeing how he probably needed his first three starts last term, it may well be he's needed his first two this season. Here he certainly ran a whole lot better than he did on his seasonal debut. So next time out, as long as he gets the yielding or softer ground he seems to need, he looks well worth close consideration.

DON'T WRITE OFF JERED

HARDY EUSTACE (40) once more showed that he's a really tough horse to beat on soft ground at two and a half miles or less when winning the Grade 1 Maplewood Developments Hurdle at Punchestown. It may well be that nowadays he needs it soft or heavy to produce his best at three miles. But he's shown that he can still win over longer trips on fast ground. So I think he must have a real chance of winning the Ascot Hurdle for a third time.

I continue to be skeptical of SIZING EUROPE (39) as a Champion Hurdle prospect as he keeps running Grade 2 times. He's still lightly raced and may improve, but right now I'll be looking to oppose him in future Grade 1's.

Here Sizing Europe looked to have the race won when he kicked three lengths clear with two to jump. His jockey was actually able to steal a look back over his shoulder soon after and must have liked what he saw as his rivals were struggling. But soon after he himself was worried and the next look back over his shoulder he took was clearly born of concern that his mount was stopping and his rivals gaining. Sure enough Hardy Eustace quickly rallied to blast past him again and stride clear.

Sizing Europe is clearly a very pacey sort. It was this that enabled him to kick away from Hardy Eustace two out. It may simply be that he needs a faster surface to last home properly. But my feeling is that he's going to be better over fences than hurdles. He was the only chasing type in this line up and could be something very special over the bigger jumps

I had thought that JERED (38) would act on the ground, seeing that he'd beaten Cork All Star on similar going on his previous start. But it now looks more than ever like Cork All Star did not run up to his best that day. I therefore return to the basic principle that a horse with a serious turn of foot like Jered should not be able to act on soft ground. It certainly looked that way here as Jered lobbed along behind the leaders as usual but simply couldn't pick up from the last like he normally does.

I've been following jump racing ever since I was a child in the Arkle/Mill House era. And I can't recall ever seeing a hurdler show the kind of acceleration Jered has now produced several times. To me he is still the most exciting prospect over the smaller jumps we've seen in a long time. Until I'm proven wrong I will continue to regard him as unbeatable on fast ground. In fact he has so much pace I'd love to see how he'd fare in Group company on the flat.

WON IN THE DARK (36) is not very big and this may partly explain why his wins have all been on much faster ground. In other words he just doesn't have the scope to jump well out of soft ground. He seemed to prove this when walking through two out and flattening it when he got tired. Nonetheless he still ran well.

Won In The Dark is a nippy sort that showed an inclination to race freely here in the early stages. So I wonder whether he truly lasts home on a very stiff track like Cheltenham. He's run well but lost both his starts there. However at other courses he would have won all five of his completed hurdles starts on yielding or faster ground if one short head photo had gone the other way.

I very much doubt that Won In The Dark will be winning another Grade 1 now that he's left the juvenile ranks. But his official rating of 135 does seem to understate his ability, so I can see him being placed to win a valuable handicap hurdle when he gets his ground.

PANDORAMA IS VERY SPECIAL

PANDORAMA (39) earned the biggest speed rating I've given a novice hurdler this season when literally cantering away with a maiden hurdle at Navan. And I've no doubt at all that he could have run a whole lot faster if he'd been ridden out instead of being allowed to simply coast home from well before the last.

I say this because his jockey, Paul Carberry, was motionless throughout the race, and allowed Pandorama to slow down once he had the race won. As a result he took 15.4 seconds to run from the last to the finish. I'm certain he could at least have equaled the 13.7 seconds which the visibly tired Catch Me took in the big Conditions hurdle on the same card. If he had then he'd have earned the biggest speed rating I normally ever give a novice hurdler all season and the biggest I can ever recall awarding a hurdling debutante.

Pandorama just lobbed along in the early stages, slowly moving up from fifth to eventually run a close second with four to jump. At that point Carberry took the first of several looks back over his shoulder and clearly liked what he saw because he didn't move a muscle.

Up the straight Carberry allowed Pandorama a little bit of extra rein and he instantly had everything bar JUDGE ROY BEAN (35) in trouble. And he had that one well beaten by the time he jumped the last.

Pandorama's jumping was the only area you could criticise. In the early stages he was overjumping the hurdles slightly. But that's what steeplechasers do when they revert to hurdles. (Pandorama was a point to pointer). Then, when he was given his head up the straight, he misjudged the last three and clattered through them all. But this is the norm for a hurdling debutante. And the errors were slight, costing him no momentum.

As is the case with virtually all point to pointers, Pandorama lost his first start between the flags. But then he won a hot maiden at Dungarvan, clocking the fastest time of the day (a second faster than a good Open). Two huge margin wins in bumpers followed. And now he's done this.

Pandorama does show a bit of knee action, and trainer Noel Meade says he needs it soft. In the old days this would have been of little consequence. But these days a large percentage of the big jump races are run at the Festival meetings in the Spring. And changing weather patterns seem to produce fast ground at these meetings pretty much every year. This being so Meade will surely press on with Pandorama during the Winter months while the ground is in his favour.

Right now I would bet Pandorama to beat pretty much any horse over hurdles or fences on soft ground at two and a half miles or more. As I see it he's one of the most exciting national hunt prospects we've seen in years. I just hope his connections aren't tempted into running him on unsuitably fast ground at one of the Spring Festivals.

THEY CANT 'CATCH ME' ON SOFT GROUND

CATCH ME (40) clocked a very decent time when winning the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan. He forged clear under pressure on the run in to beat a good field by seven lengths.

Catch Me has now completed the course nine times on what I rate genuinely soft ground at trips beyond a mile and a half. His only loss in those nine starts was an unlucky neck defeat to a high class rival. He's run well on faster ground but is clearly better with plenty of cut. I can see him taking the scalp of more big name rivals this Winter when he gets his ground.

WAR OF ATTRITION LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER

The second win in succession scored by WAR OF ATTRITION (40) at Thurles last week might seem like nothing more than you'd expect. But the fast time he clocked, the ease of his success and the fluency of his jumping has me thinking that this is no comeback by a once top class chaser now past his sell by date. I strongly suspect he's as good as ever.

The time that War Of Attrition ran was 0.7 of a second faster than that put up by the useful Footy Facts over the same course and distance on the card. And they missed a fence in Footy Facts’ race which normally saves the runners about 1.1 seconds. So War Of Attrition's performance was even better than it looked.

War Of Attrition simply lobbed along in second place, coasted into the lead jumping three out and won without being asked a question.

Perhaps War Of Attrition won't be able to produce this sort of form on faster ground following his injury. Maybe he wouldn't have found as much as seemed likely if a top class rival had been there to challenge him. Right now though I have to say I think he's looking very tough to beat.

I recognise that no horse has ever won more than one Cheltenham Gold Cup in anything except successive years. But surely War Of Attrition has the greatest shot of beating that stat since Mill House fell when starting at 4-1 to take the race for a second time back in 1967.

Runner up CARRIGEEN KALMIA (37) couldn't get to the winner but beat the rest of a decent field. She's a very consistent mare when racing in the right conditions. As I see it those conditions are less than three miles over fences in a field smaller than twelve off a recent race. She's won four times and finished second four times in eight tries in these circumstances. It's just a shame there isn't some valuable mares only race for experienced chasers. She'd have a big shot of winning such a contest. She's still capable of beating males in a Listed chase or valuable handicap given the right conditions.

FOOTY FACTS STAYS REALLY WELL

FOOTY FACTS (38) has always been a very decent horse on soft ground and showed this once more with a comfortable success at Thurles in a novice chase.

He was always moving well and quickly jumped by the runner up CARRIGEEN KING (36) after the pair had pulled a long way clear of their pursuers in the run towards the straight.

Footy Facts may not be that big, but he seems a natural over fences and clearly has masses of stamina. I can see him winning a big chase even against experienced rivals over three miles plus on soft ground. His inability to handle a fast surface makes the Spring Festival meetings unlikely targets. Before then though he can surely be found a good target on the softer going that prevails during the Winter.

Carrigeen King is a proper chasing sort, much taller than the winner. He made almost all the running, jumping well and had the rest of the field well beaten. This was much the best run he's ever put up in his relatively short career. Right now I can't figure him out seeing that he had to be pulled up in a weaker race over the course and distance last time. All I can say is that on this run he's more than capable of winning an ordinary novice chase.

FIERY LAD ALMOST UNSTOPPABLE ON POLY

FIERY LAD (39) broke Muhannak's track record when winning the Listed Carlingford Stakes on Dundalk's Polytrack last week. And I think he gives us an insight into the future of horse racing.

On Polytrack and other synthetic surfaces the early pace is normally slow, which causes a bunch finish where luck in running is a huge factor. This makes it almost impossible for a horse, however good it may be, to score an impressive string of wins. There are always going to be one or two races where trouble in running causes them to lose narrowly. So the only way for a horse to build a reputation good enough for it to retire to stud will be slowly, like Fiery Lad.

Up till now the nature of horse racing has been for a horse to quickly build up an impressive record and then be bundled off to stud before its reputation can de dented by a defeat. But if the rapid trend towards synthetic surfaces continues worldwide this is no longer going to be possible.

Another aspect of synthetic surfaces like Polytrack is that even when the early pace is strong, as it was for Fiery Lad's race last week, the horses finish with more reserve energy than they do on turf or dirt. As a result the kind of speed rating Fiery Lad earned last week is about as high as they ever go. In the many thousands of races we've seen on synthetic surfaces so far in America and Europe no horse has yet come within three lengths per mile of the huge speed ratings horses have earned on turf and dirt by being able to run themselves to exhaustion.

I concede that longer careers for the top runners and fewer horses being knocked off form by a hard race are positives. But I do worry about the confusing nature of the narrow, unlucky losses that even the best horses suffer on Polytrack and other synthetic surfaces.

Fiery Lad himself is a good example of this. You could easily argue that the should have won all eight times he's run on Polytrack but for luck in running.

Last time out for instance Fiery Lad came from miles back to get beat half a length by Muhannak and Mr Medici. When he entered the short straight there was a wall of horses in front of him, and he had to wait for a gap. He finished strongly when it finally came and was picking up all the way to the line. Five strides past the post he was in front. Would he have won if a gap had opened sooner? I don't know, and that's the problem you're so often faced with on these new surfaces.

This time around Fiery Lad stuck closer to the early pace and was able to kick on into the lead just after the two furlong pole. The useful mare VARSITY (38) came out of the pack to chase him. But he was always going to hold her.

Now the owners of Fiery Lad are faced with another problem raised by the new synthetic surfaces. Namely the almost total absence of big races to aim for in Europe. In America there are now stacks of Grade 1 and 2 races run on synthetic surfaces. But in Europe we only have a handful of Listed and Group 3 contests. There are no Group 1 or 2 races run on Polytrack or other synthetic surfaces in Europe, even though about 40% of flat races in Britain are now run on such surfaces and France Galop are aiming for a similar percentage in France.

The truth is we now have a choice in Europe. Either we stop treating All Weather racing as second class or we start losing an increasing proportion of our better AW horses to America where opportunities for them are so much greater.

Getting back to this AW race I should note that Varsity put up her best ever performance to chase Fiery Lad home. She's clearly a very useful mare on Polytrack or firm turf. But, as trainer Charlie Swan has noted, she needs a strong pace to produce her best. She doesn't have the finishing speed to win a race where the leaders are still full of running in the closing stages. For this reason, even though she clearly loves the surface, she's going to be hard to place on Polytrack.