IRELAND NOVEMBER 09

 

Home
Up
INTRODUCTION
SPEED RATINGS
NICK'S PICK'S
WEEKLY REPORTS
LINKS
BLOODSTOCK
STANDARD TIMES
ARCHIVES

 

 

COOLCASHIN STAYS REALLY WELL

COOLCASHIN (39) showed that he has serious stamina when rallying strongly to run second to Aranleigh at Puchestown after being stopped in his tracks three out. He showed it again when getting the better of Faltering Fullback in the Glen Chase at Thurles.

The ground was so slow at Thurles that the jockeys seemed to decide not to start going at racing pace till the fence at the top of the course about two miles from the finish, regardless of the distance they were going. So it's safest to compare the times that they took from that point in all the chases. If we do that then Coolcashin's race comes out much the best as they came home from that point 3.8 seconds quicker than in the next quickest chase on the card. That merits a seriously good speed rating.

Running the race that way didn't seem to suit Coolcashin as it put less of an emphasis on stamina which is clearly his strong suit. He went well throughout. But despite responding several times when his jockey asked him for a big jump he couldn't quite get to the head of affairs till cutting the corner into the homestraight and challenging for the lead. At that stage stamina started to become much more of an issue, so he began to draw clear with Faltering Fullback. He eventually worked his way to the front jumping the last and always looked likely to hold the runner up though winning by only a neck.

The logical move now is surely to put Coolcashin up to three miles for the Grade 1 novice chase over that distance at Leopardstown on the 28th of December. I think it would be a mistake to cut him back to the other possible option over 2m 3f that his trainer Michael Bowe was discussing after this race.

I'm actually getting rather interested in Coolcashin as a candidate for the Irish National as he jumped well despite being pressured for a long way here and should appreciate the marathon distance.

It's hard to escape the conclusion that runner up FALTERING FULLBACK (39) is best on relatively tight tracks like Thurles. If the photo had gone his way this would have been five wins from the last five times he's run on tracks 11 furlongs or less in circumference. He's lost all six times he's run around bigger ovals.

 

SIZING EUROPE LOOKS ALMOST UNBEATABLE

SIZING EUROPE (40) clocked another seriously fast time when taking a Grade 2 novice chase at Punchestown last Sunday by six lengths. He didn't run quite as fast as he had on his debut because he was allowed to cruise home on the bridle. But he did enough to convince me that nothing is likely to beat him over fences in the near future.

One aspect of Sizing Europe's performance that I particularly liked was that his jumping was perfect. He has always seemed a natural jumper of fences (he even used to take hurdles like they were fences) and was foot perfect here. At one stage it looked as if Major Finnegan was a serious danger. But try as he might his rival couldn't get Sizing Europe off the bit or pressure him into a jumping error. Sizing Europe ended up cruising clear, hard held on the run in.

I still think that Sizing Europe is more of a three miler than a two miler. But being campaigned over two miles as a novice didn't stop Kicking King or War Of Attrition from going on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup. And seeing the pace that Sizing Europe has I guess I should stop whining about my belief he'll do even better over a much longer distance.

Right now I would bet Sizing Europe to beat any chaser, novice or otherwise over any distance. So the 13-2 the bookies are offering about his chances for the Arkle does seem pretty generous. Mark my words this is a very special horse.

MAJOR FINNEGAN (37) did really well to try and hold off Sizing Europe and is clearly a very decent novice chaser over two miles. He'd beaten the smart Jered on his only previous start over fences and is surely going to win a good race sometime soon. His trainer insists he's best at two miles which I'd bet being proved right.

 

HOW GOOD IS COOLCASHIN?

It's usually dangerous to assume that a horse would have produced significantly better form but for being hampered. However I just have to believe that COOLCASHIN (38) would have won and run a good deal quicker but for being stopped in his tracks when Clan Tara blundered and swerved across him at the third last in the Grade 3 Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown. The incident looked to cost him around six lengths but he rallied strongly and was only just held by ARANLEIGH (38) in a photo.

If he had got up this would have been four straight wins for Coolcashin at trips of two and a half miles or more. Clearly he's a smart staying chaser. Equally clearly he's going to have no problem getting three miles judged by the way he stayed on so well off a good early pace here.

Aranleigh went through a one year spell covering four races where he ran below form. But he's won five of his other six starts, including both his runs this season. I liked the way he rallied when Coolcashin came at him. It could well be he's now going to fulfill all that potential he showed back in 2007. Certainly he ran a solid Grade 3 time here.

With nobody else wanting to go on, CLAN TARA (32) was allowed to go a dozen lengths clear for much of the race. He looked to have every chance when making his catastrophic blunder three out at which point he was still a couple of lengths ahead and not stopping. But he failed to rally in the same manner as Coolcashin who was slowed down just as much by his error as he was.

I'm now wondering whether I've wrongly tagged Clan Tara as an out and out stayer. It could be he's a two and a half mile specialist and made the blunder because he was beginning to run out of gas over the two and three quarter miles here. If he hadn't bumped into the top class Pandorama and lost in a photo last time he'd have won four of the five times he's run exactly two and a half miles on the soft ground he seems to need.

 

SOLWHIT'S WIN TOLD US VERY LITTLE

If the Champion Hurdle was three furlongs then SOLWHIT (27) would be the one to beat. That's basically all the Grade 1 Dobbins & Madigans at Punchestown Hurdle last Sunday told us.

In a field of four out and out hold up horses Solwhit managed to be the only horse of the top three contenders that was able to avoid leading early on. First HURRICANE FLY (25) and then MUIRHEAD (26) were forced to amble along in front early on, ceding a huge advantage to Solwhit.

Muirhead slowly built the gallop up from four out. But it was only after jumping two out that he really began racing. From there the field took just 41.6 seconds to get to the line. This compares with the 43.1 seconds they took in another sprint finish to the Bumper where the runners saved about 1.4 seconds by not having to jump two hurdles.

Muirhead pitched slightly on landing over the last, a result of having jumped it at sprinting speed. But for this he might have given Solwhit a bit more to do. But in reality this is one of those races that we can learn very little from. The horses were only really running for the last three furlongs and two of them were severely disadvantaged by being forced to race more prominently than they like.

Funnily enough the biggest steer I'm going to take out of the race is for the horse that finished stone last, DE VALIRA (23). He moved well for a long way and kept up really well for a horse built to go longer when the sprint began. He's a good-bodied, strong sort that I'd like to see tried over two and a half miles or perhaps over fences. A couple of seasons ago he looked a future star after winning two Grade 2 events. I can see him fulfilling that potential now he's back over jumps if he's upped to two and a half miles or perhaps if he simply gets a more strongly run race.

 

BIG ZEB AS BRILLIANT AS EVER

BIG ZEB (40) faced a pretty stiff task on his seasonal debut in the Fortia Chase at Navan. He was set to give five pounds to MADE IN TAIPAN (40), a top class two mile chaser on soft ground when fresh and going left-handed. But he made it look easy, cruising by his rival on the run in to win very cheekily by half a length.

Like so many top two mile chasers (including Made In Taipan) Big Zeb tends to hurdle his fences. This can cause him to tip up on occasion, just as former Champion two miler Moscow Flyer used to do. This time around though he never looked in any danger of falling. He moved up strongly to press Made In Taipan and was always going to get by even though his rival's jockey Davy Russell had clearly saved a fair bit for the challenge he knew was coming.

A mistake two out did not help Made In Taipan's cause, but he would never have troubled Big Zeb who is clearly quite some horse.

My speed ratings have long indicated that Big Zeb is just as fast as Master Minded. And he validated that idea when running Paul Nicholls' star to a head in the Kerrygold Champion Chase at the Punchestown Festival in March. My feeling after watching this run is that he's going to do better than his old rival this term. He's a magnificent looking specimen that simply toyed with a high class opponent. His ability to take a chance and hurdle his fences makes him a bit quicker over the jumps than Master Minded. And he clearly has the most stamina of the pair.

 

THE LISTENER STILL HAS IT

A lot of very pacey horses are best fresh. They always run a fast time so a race takes a lot out of them. They tend to run to what I call the rest pattern. That is they're good for their first two runs of the season but then need a break of at least five weeks to run well again.

THE LISTENER (40) certainly fits this description, and he's just gone and won yet another Irish Grade 1 by taking the JNWine.com Champion Chase on his seasonal debut at Down Royal

The other thing which drives The Listener's form is his obvious lack of stamina. He's fine over two and a half miles. But he only gets three miles on a relatively easy track when he's not taken on for the lead at a scorching pace. In last year's race Knight Legend took him on at a tremendous gallop and the pair both tired. This year he was allowed to set a pretty soft pace up front. And the only time he came under pressure was briefly five out where NOTRE PERE challenged him only to go through the top of the jump and come down. From that point it was plain sailing for The Listener. He was asked to inject more pace into the race with two to jump and soon had all his rivals in trouble.

Outside of his run in this race last year The Listener has completed the course eight times when fresh over three miles or less. He won six of those eight times and got beat less than a length into second by smart horses in Grade 1's the other two.

Judged by the way jockey Andrew Lynch threw his whip at the ground in disgust after being dumped he clearly felt he was going well enough to give The Listener a real battle. But seeing how much energy The Listener had saved up front and the run he was able to produce later makes me doubtful that Notre Pere could have got past him.

Notre Pere's trainer Jim Dreaper had said before the race that his charge would come on for the run. And the horse had lost all four of his previous seasonal debuts, running below his best each time. So I think it's reasonable to suppose that he would have had a hard time going with the winner when he stepped on the gas two out if he'd stood up.

Notre Pere remains a seriously good horse on soft or heavy ground at three miles plus. He almost certainly lacks the pace to be effective on a quicker surface against Gold Cup horses. But he's bang there with the best of them in mud.