PSYCHO RUNS INSANELY FAST

PSYCHO (41) clocked a seriously fast time to win a rather hot conditions chase at Naas. Always moving best, he came away when switched to the stands rail up the straight to win comfortably.

I confess that I find it a little hard to understand Psycho at this stage. Clearly you can chuck out his poor run at Navan a year ago. He must have made a breathing noise there as he had a wind operation afterwards. I'm not quite sure why he ran below his best on his seasonal debut. Perhaps he needed the run despite previously seeming to be best fresh. Certainly he pulled hard that day, as horses often do when they're too fresh off a break. He's won his other four most recent starts.

Psycho looks rather too pacey to last much more than two and a half miles. But if he did turn up for the Lexus Chase I'd be worried about just drawing a line through his name because he ran so fast here. The most logical target is the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase over 2m 1f. I'd be interested in his chances there even if Big Zeb, Master Minded and Golden Silver all turned up.

Runner up OSANA (39) had clearly not stayed two and a half miles around the stiff Down Royal last time. But the clock says he ran up to his best over the 2m 3f on this easier course. He's tough to place because his official rating is too high for handicaps and he's not quite up to beating Grade 1 horses like Psycho. In addition his record suggest he'll now need a break to run this well again.

There are a whole bunch of Grade 2 and 3 chases in January and February that would make good targets for Osana. If he's rested and comes back in one of them I'd be inclined to support him - as long as some Grade 1 horse doesn't turn up.

SIZING EUROPE COULD WELL IMPROVE OVER KEMPTON'S EASIER FENCES

I've noted before that SIZING EUROPE (42) is a horse that does not seem to like the idea of hitting a fence. He'll slow up to make sure this doesn't happen.

Previously this hadn't caused him to lose too much ground. But this wasn't the case in the Grade 1 JNWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. He jumped the first safe and slow then really skyed the second, giving it masses of room and losing several lengths. He didn't lost anything like that much ground at the subsequent jumps but did cede a bit at several, notably the two open ditches and five out.

It was tremendous that Sizing Europe could still move up to challenge three out and look a major threat to go past Kauto Star. He couldn't quite do it but made the Champion pull out all the stops for his four length win.

I suspect it was the stiffness of Down Royal's fences as much as Sizing Europe's inexperience that was the problem. I say this because Down Royal's chase course has claimed a higher percentage of fallers than any other in Britain or Ireland over the last fifteen years, barring the National course at Aintree. 10.7% of the runners in chases at the track have fallen in this period.

When Sizing Europe faces off against Kauto Star again in the King George hw will be doing so over fences that have claimed only 6.6% fallers over the last fifteen years. In fact so far this year just 6 of 210 chase runners at Kempton have fallen compared with 27 from 286 at Down Royal. So the current difference in the stiffness of the fences looks to be a good deal greater than the historical average.

Fences in Ireland claim a significantly higher percentage of fallers than those in Britain. And it's worth remembering that the last time Sizing Europe ran over fences in Britain he jumped perfectly despite being taken along at a tremendous pace in a pretty big field in the Arkle over just two miles. If he jumps as well as that in the King George he's going to be a serious threat to Kauto Star and whatever else turns up. In this regard it's also worth pointing out that the slow early pace at Down Royal probably gave Sizing Europe way too much time to think about the first couple of jumps. The fence he cleared with most proficiency was the last when he was fully extended.

Considering the slow early pace KAUTO STAR (43) put up a seriously good performance on the clock, coming a good deal closer to my standard time and that of the Racing Post than his smart stablemate The Nightingale did in a truly run two and a half mile chase on the same card.

They went about six seconds a mile slower by estimates for the first five furlongs than they would have done in a true run race. But they picked up really well from there. If you time the video from landing over what was the first jump in the two and a half mile race you'll find they got home from there in 5m 2.3 seconds, which is 1.6 seconds quicker than The Nightingale managed. In other words Kauto Star ran about three lengths a mile quicker.

This fact plus the past ratings earned by Sizing Europe and third placed China Rock enable me to peg Kauto Star's run pretty accurately as being worth 43 on my scale. That's a couple of lengths per mile off his lifetime best but it's way more than we could reasonably expect after his last run in the Gold Cup where he looked set to run unplaced for the first time in his chasing career when falling five out.

If he can sustain this level of performance Kauto Star has a real shot of winning his fifth King George. It should be noted though that he had a harder race here than his connections were probably hoping for. He had a battle royal with the second and third over the last half mile and won this on sheer class and endurance. If he were mine I wouldn't think of giving him another run between now and the King George. If he's to pull off the historic five timer he's surely going to need to be rested.

Just how long Kauto Star can go on producing big runs like this I don't know. He's already gone by many obvious statistical milestones which normally suggest deterioration. My gut feel though is that the King George may well be his final real shot at another Grade 1 win. I hope he proves me wrong yet again because racing needs Champions like him to promote the sport to a wider audience.

And let's be clear here. Whatever happens to Kauto Star from now he has done more than enough to be recognised as the greatest steeplechaser since Arkle.

CHINA ROCK (42) put up yet another big performance to come home just half a length behind Sizing Europe in third. He's run fast on all three of his starts this season, actually going a bit quicker each time according to my ratings.

A feature of China Rock's performance here was his fast and accurate jumping. He did breast five and six out but lost no ground.

Seeing that he's a bit below average size for a chaser I'm going to be wary of supporting China Rock in really big fields. I also want to see him prove he can win around a left-handed chase course seeing that he's run unplaced all three times he's gone that way so far. Despite those provisos I'd be surprised if China Rock didn't win a grade 1 chase this season. He's shown that he can act on any ground and produce top class from two and a half to three miles.

COOLCASHIN (26) managed to keep tabs on the leaders till after five out when they started to get away from him. This is not that surprising because although they clocked a fast final time for the overall distance it was the last two and a quarter miles where the horses did all their running in this race and Coolcashin is not a two and a quarter mile horse. His strong suit is stamina not speed.

We've seen this sort of thing with Coolcashin before in the Powers Gold Cup in April where Let Yourself Go took the field along at an unsustainable pace for the two and a half miles in heavy ground. Let Yourself Go tired badly and had to be pulled up but not before he'd forced several of his rivals to get so tired they fell or had to pull up themselves. Among the pulled up horses was Kempes, who won the Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown next time, and Coolcashin. Given the furious gallop it's no surprise Coolcashin got outpaced and had to be pulled up too.

Ideally I think Coolcashin needs an end to end gallop over three miles plus.

Another highly important race in Coolcashin's record is the Grade 2 at Navan in February where he jumped out to his right and got beat 46 lengths. In his subsequent starts Coolcashin has kept to right handed courses. And his jockeys have deliberately steered him to the rail in all of them so that he had no room to jump right at all (a common jockey tactic with horses that jump this way). In this race he got a little crowded down the inside at a couple of the early jumps and reacted by taking them too big.

Toss out the two runs where the pace was too fast and you'll find that Coolcashin has won five of the other seven most recent times he's gone right handed over trips of two and a half miles or more. One of his losses was a most unlucky short head defeat by the smart Aranleigh where he finished strong after being hampered. The other was last time out where he got chopped for speed turning in but was staying on strongly to finish a length and a half second to China Rock in a very fast run two and a half mile Grade 2. In another 25 yards he would have won that race so strongly was he finishing.

With an official handicap mark of only 138 and a need to go three miles plus in strongly run races around right handed tracks the obvious targets for Coolcashin are the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in January then the Irish Grand National. The King George would also suit him as it's invariably a very strongly run race. The concern is he probably wouldn't be good enough to win there but might well place judged by my speed ratings, and that would blow his handicap mark for the Thyestes and Irish Grand National.

Coming up to the fifth last MOSSBANK (22) moved up to be fifth by about four lengths, at which point he was going smoothly, just as well as the eventual first, second and third. He tired from there, hit the fourth last and finished far back. But this was a promising performance given the two and a half year lay-off with leg problems that preceded it.

Mossbank has always gone well fresh in the past. In fact he's won five times out of seven on his first two starts of the season before this. But he surely needed this run, so I would not be at all surprised to see him run a big race next time. The way he was traveling five out suggests he's retained most if not all his ability.

TRAFFORD LAD was another top class horse returning following leg problems. He collided with Sizing Europe landing over the first and this may have got him a big too excited as he pulled quite hard from there. He ended up tiring and jumping slow from soon after halfway before getting so far back he was pulled up early in the straight. I'm not going to write him off just yet though. He's a good looking Grade 1 winner that almost certainly needed this run.

HIDDEN CYCLONE SOMETHING SPECIAL

HIDDEN CYCLONE (39) is a magnificent looking specimen. He's good bodied, muscular and has the build to jump fences and stay at least two and a half miles, quite possibly more. But he's also very athletic and clearly has serious gears. He showed this when hosing up in the Grade 3 For Auction novice hurdle at Navan.

It was evident approaching the straight that Hidden Cyclone was cruising all over his rivals and he soon took the lead. He ran green and jumped novicey when he was asked to go and win his race but still powered six lengths clear after showing a really good turn of foot. He won with a fair bit in hand and is obviously something special.

Hidden Cyclone is unbeaten after three starts, and he looked so good here I imagine he'll start odds on for the two and a half mile Grade 1 over the same course in a couple of weeks. I certainly wouldn't want to be opposing him there.

If he's to go to Cheltenham I would like to see Hidden Cyclone have as many runs as possible beforehand as he clearly still has a lot to learn about the game. In fact if he were mine I'd be inclined to skip Cheltenham altogether and concentrate on letting him learn the ropes in smaller fields for the rest of this season. Next season he's going to be quite some novice chaser.

OSANA SHOULD WIN NEXT TIME OVER TWO MILES

It was hard not to be taken with the comfortable success of THE NIGHTINGALE (40) in the Grade 2 Ladbrokes.com Chase at Down Royal. If he hadn't slipped up with the race won on one occasion he would now have won all six times he's run around right handed courses. I'm counting Fontwell's figure of eight chase track as right handed as the all important home turn is taken in that direction.

The Nightingale, jumped well, was always traveling smoothly and just lobbed along behind the leaders till going on three out. He only had to be pushed out to score and it looked like he could have gone a bit quicker if he had more competition.

Trainer Paul Nicholls told reporters afterwards that jockey Ruby Walsh said it doesn't matter if The Nightingale goes left or right handed. But Walsh rode The Nightingale like he was concerned he'd jump right if given the chance by keeping him to the inside all the way around. And if the horse has no problem going left-handed then how come he jumped so badly right at Aintree and has lost all four times he's run that way, running well below form in his three left handed tries over obstacles?

Until he proves he can show this same level of form on left-handed courses I think it's safe to bet he's best right handed.

It also looks likely that the two and a half miles of the Down Royal race is The Nightingale's right distance. He's a pacey sort that looks built for this sort of distance. You could argue that his sire has produced several good horses over three mile plus. But his dam won three sprints on the flat and suffered her only loss in four hurdles starts the sole time she ran beyond 1m 6f (they have hurdle races shorter than two miles in France).

This being so, The Nightingale's future campaign pretty much writes itself as there are only five remaining Grade 1 or 2 chases he's eligible for around two and a half miles. Of these, the sole Grade 1 is the Ascot Chase in February which just has to be his big target.

The Nightingale's ability is rather too obvious for him to offer any real betting value in the immediate future. For that I would look to third placed OSANA (33) who clearly didn't stay the two and a half miles.

Osana was traveling just as well as The Nightingale till he tired in the closing stages and surely needs to go back to two miles.

Like most good two milers Osana looks to be best on his first two runs off a three month break then require resting for at least five weeks to run well again. I think we can toss out his Champion Hurdle start where he went off way too fast in first time blinkers. Otherwise Osana has won five of the other seven most recent seven times he's been fresh over 2m 1f or less, with one of his losses being a good second to Sizing Europe to whom he was giving six pounds.

Osana can run seriously fast when fresh over shorter trips. And he'll still be fresh next time as this was his seasonal debut. So I like his chances of taking something very decent over two miles at a nice price next time.

HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS A USEFUL NOVICE CHASER

Approaching the straight in the two mile novice chase at Thurles last week HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS (38) looked to be in trouble on his chasing debut. The pace seemed a little too quick for him as he was stretched into two slow jumps and slipped back from second to fourth.

He still looked beat running up to the last but then picked up suddenly as his stamina really kicked in, powered past the leaders and won going away full of running.

Clearly the two miles was too short for Hampshire Express, so it was tremendous that he could clock a Grade 3 class time. Over two and a half miles, perhaps a bit more, he could well prove competitive in Grade 1 events. He's won three of his last four completed starts and is clearly improving.

GLENCOVE MARINA STILL SMART ON SOFT GROUND

GLENCONVE MARINA (37) put up a performance bang there with the very top chasers on my speed ratings when winning a Grade 3 at Navan in March. He didn't have to run anything like that fast to take the Listed Thurles Chase last week. But he always looked to have things under control and I think he could have run a fair bit quicker if he'd had more competition.

Clearly Glencove Marina has had major leg problems and they're still ongoing. This apparently is why he was moved to Eoin Griffin this season who has a swimming pool and other facilities ideal for getting a horse like Glencove Marina fit without putting too much stress on his legs.

Glencove Marina had to pull up on his first start for Griffin. However that was on ground race times suggest was only just on the yielding side of good. Nonetheless Glencove Marina moved really well and actually looked to be going best turning in. But then the race turned into a sprint over the last few fences and he was in trouble. He was soon stretched and had dropped back to just a fair fourth at the last which he was unable to jump properly at the pace they were going. He didn't rise properly, hit it with his back legs and got turned sideways. His jockey instantly stopped riding him and jumped off. But it turned out he was perfectly sound.

Glencove Marina needed that run according to Griffin. And the ground was clearly against him. He needs it really soft to be encouraged to jump with enthusiasm and not get stretched by a sprint finish like he was last time.

Glencove Marina is still unbeaten in four completed chase starts. I'm on the fence about whether he'll get three miles, but whenever he runs on soft ground I'll think long and hard about opposing him.

Runner up NOTRE PERE (36) is all about stamina rather than speed and appears to require the strong pace that only a much bigger field can generate to produce his best. In addition he seems to need soft ground.

The form figures for Notre Pere's last seven races where he's encountered soft or heavy ground in fields of twelve or more read 1121111. Before this run he'd been outpaced and run unplaced the most recent six times he's run in fields smaller than twelve, so it was encouraging to see him stay on late for second after getting outpaced and dropping back approaching the home turn.

It's easy to dismiss Notre Pere as a big boat of a horse with zero acceleration. But he's a dual Grade 1 winner that's very hard to beat in big fields on soft or heavy going. If he took up his entry in the Hennessy and got his ground I'd be very interested in his chances.

OUR GIRL SALLEY COULD GO SHORTER

OUR GIRL SALLEY (37) is a well put together mare who cruised away with a maiden hurdle at Navan on her first start over timber. She showed a serious turn of foot to leave her rivals floundering in the closing stages. This plus the sectional times tells me she'd have no trouble cutting back to two miles from the two and a half she ran here.

Our Girl Salley ran the two and a half miles just 0.6 seconds slower than Oscar Dan Dan did in the Grade 2 Lismullen hurdle on the same card. But she covered the last two miles a full two seconds faster, the pace having been rather moderate for the first half mile.

This is a smart mare that will surely dominate any mares only race she contests and could well be good enough to win Graded novice hurdles against males.

NOBLE PRINCE WINS RED HOT NOVICE CHASE

You can never really tell just how well a horse is going to take to fences. So every few years you find one novice chase where a whole bunch of horses improve for the switch to the bigger jumps and produce a red hot contest.

This was undoubtedly the case with the Beginners Chase at Punchestown won by NOBLE PRINCE (41) last week.

They came home from the first fence, just less than a furlong after the start, 7.2 and 8.5 seconds quicker than they did in the two chase over half a mile longer on the same card. Even when I adjust for the shorter distance of Noble Prince's race that makes his time 2.4 seconds a mile better than the next fastest chase. That's just enormous considering the next fastest chase was won by a horse that earned a Racing Post rating of 143.

I've just got to go with what the clock says, and it says this was a Grade 1 performance by Noble Prince.

Noble Prince just lobbed along in fifth place behind the strong pace set by Bob Lingo and Saludos early on.

Despite the good early gallop the race developed into close to a sprint from after three out but Noble Prince continued to move smoothly, closing up easily to dispute the lead two out despite Saludos having just swerved across him.

On the run in Noble Prince looked to have a fight on his hands to catch Healys Bar who had his ears pricked and was full of run. But Noble Prince just laughed at him, using his flat race speed to cruise by, barely having to be ridden to do so.

Noble Prince was a good Group 2 horse on the flat and around Grade 2 class over hurdles. But this run says he's absolutely top class over fences.

I loved the way that Noble Prince jumped like an old hand here and wasn't at all put off when Saludos got stretched into nearly slithering to the ground in front of him two out. And I was most impressed with the turn of foot he showed. Very few chasers can quicken up the way he did in a race where they'd already accelerated. As far as I'm concerned I've found my ante-post bet for the Arkle. At 33-1 the bookies have gone way too big with this one in my opinion. Later this month in the Grade 2 Craddockstown Novices Chase over the same course and distance I think he'll show just how good he is and plummet in price for the big Cheltenham race.

HEALYS BAR (40) is a bigger, more traditional national hunt sort with less pace than the winner. He sat close to the pace and worked his way forward to dispute the lead two out and had the lead on the run in when moving really well. He couldn't match the winner who just swamped him for finishing speed but put up a tremendous performance for a chasing debutante.

Healys Bar ran third in a two and a half mile Grade 1 over hurdles and a decent third in a good three mile race. He certainly should stay just as far over the bigger jumps but clearly has the ability to win some of the top novice chases over two miles.

BOB LINGO (39) did really well to rally after being headed three out but couldn't quite go with the first two from the last. Nonetheless this was also a tremendous performance by a novice. he's very lightly raced for an 8YO and looks a very good two mile chaser in the making.

Fourth placed SALUDOS (36) disputed the lead at a strong pace but got stretched into a bad error two out when the race developed into a near sprint. He slithered on landing, very nearly came down and lost a lot of momentum. He did well to pick up again and stay on quite nicely though outpaced from there.

Saludos has a really long stride and his three wins have all been on heavy ground. I just don't think he has the pace to produce his best on such a quick surface and that's why he got stretched into that jumping error. When he encounters softer ground I'll be very interested in his chances. In addition, despite the fact he seemingly failed to get home in his two tries beyond two miles I can't believe that a horse built like him won't stay longer distances.