FORGET KICKING KING'S DEFEAT

Previously I've not been a great fan of WAR OF ATTRITION (44) because he'd never run a fast time. He put that right in a freakishly strong Listed race at Punchestown when defeating Gold Cup winner Kicking King and dual grade 1 scorer Pizarro on his seasonal debut.

Now I'm wondering how on earth War Of Attrition has ever lost. He ran so fast here that it's clear he'd still be unbeaten if he'd shown this level of form on all his outings.

Right now all I can say is that War Of Attrition is a seriously fast chaser. And if he can run this fast at 2m 6f I'm not going to doubt his ability to stay three miles. Perhaps he'll even get the Gold Cup trip in time. Certainly he looks a fantastic prospect and a worthy rival for Kicking King.

I am now a big fan of Kicking King, having previously knocked him for running relatively ordinary times over shorter distances. But then, as he was stepped up in distance, he started to run faster and faster. In fact, when I look at my speed ratings for Kicking King I see a very strong correlation between the distance of the race and how fast he runs. Basically the longer the distance the faster he goes. You can see this clearly from the highest speed ratings I've awarded him at various distances;

3m 2f 45

3m 1f 44

3m 43

2m 6f 43

2m 4f 42

2m 38

The speed rating Kicking King earned in defeat here is precisely what his previous performances would have suggested. At a longer distance he'd have run a bit faster and may well have beaten War Of Attrition despite his lack of race fitness. That's what my ratings say.

As I see it this race simply confirmed the idea that Kicking King is a better horse at longer trips. He still looks awfully hard to beat in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

And let's not forget about PIZARRO (43) who so nearly got up to beat Kicking King for second.

I now have two competing theories to explain Pizarro's form. The first is one I've mentioned here before -namely that Pizarro just can't jump fences effectively out of soft ground. Toss out his chase starts on soft and heavy ground and Pizarro's record shows eight wins out of eleven completed starts. One of the two losses was a one length second to Hardy Eustace, who I rate the fastest hurdler since Istabraq on my speed ratings. Another was this terrific run where he finished close to two of the best chasers in recent years

The second theory I've developed about Pizarro (and one I'm beginning to like more) is that it might actually be shorter trips like this that he needs rather than fast ground. After all Pizaro has won only one of his nine starts at three miles plus - and that was a very slow novice chase where a rival that was going well tipped up five out. He's won seven of his twelve outings at shorter trips.

It may also be that Pizarro is best fresh. He's run at a trip short of three miles following a break seven times - winning six.

Only time will tell exactly what makes Pizarro tick. For now it's just great to see this multiple Grade 1 winner back to his best. Hopefully he can be found an appropriate race soon - though I'm still not quite sure just what that might be.

TIGER CRY IS GOOD ON GOOD GROUND

Trainer Arthur Moore says that TIGER CRY (38) cannot handle heavy ground. Certainly he seems a useful horse on good ground. In three tries on such a surface he's run second in the Galway Hurdle and won twice. One of the wins was his latest outing where he bolted up by eight lengths in a Fairhouse novice Chase. Moore says he hopes to find another novice chase for Tiger Cry before the ground turns against him. When he's brought back for the firmer ground in the Spring he might easily prove a Cheltenham prospect.

SEPTIMUS LOOKS VERY INTERESTING FOR THE DERBY

Right now the two shortest priced horses in the ante-post betting for the Derby are Horatio Nelson and George Washington – both trained by Aiden O’Brien. But the stats say you can forget about them. If there’s going to be a winner from Ballydoyle in the 2006 Derby it’s much more likely to be SEPTIMUS (38).

Septimus scored in seriously fast time when taking the Beresford Stakes over a mile last Sunday. In fact I can only recall giving one Irish two year old race over a mile a speed rating as high. This was the maiden Galileo won by a street a few years ago. Galileo of course went on to win the Derby.

Both of Aiden O’Brien’s two previous Derby winners scored over a mile at two like Septimus did here. It looks certain that Horatio Nelson and George Washington will be running over a mile or less before Epsom – and the last 53 horses to do that all lost the Blue Riband.

Septimus showed real maturity to stand off a strong challenge from the runner-up in what I rated a Group 1 race in all but name. This being so the 33-1 being offered about his Derby chances by Victor Chandler looks incredibly generous. Even the general 25-1 seems way too big to me.

If Septimus goes for the Racing Post Trophy, Criterium International or Criterium de Saint-Cloud I wouldn’t want to oppose him. I rate him that good. As I see it, he beat a seriously good horse home in REKAAB (37).

I actually thought Rekaab was something of a good thing after his four length fourth to Horatio Nelson in what I rated the fastest two year old race of the season last time out, the Futurity Stakes. The third horse home in the Futurity had won the Champagne Stakes next time out. And Horatio Nelson had certainly given the form a boost by taking the Group 1 Grand Criterium at Longchamp. So I figured it would take something special to beat Rekaab, and it looks like it did.

ALLEXINA IS VERY SMART IN MUD

ALLEXINA (38) showed again just how much she appreciates cut in the ground when running away from British raider Foreign Affairs (35) in a Listed race at the Curragh. She won three of the first four times she ran on soft ground and then finished second to Oiseau Rare (who I rate Group 1 class) in France the only other time she got her ground.

How the official going report for the round course was ‘good’ is beyond me. Race times clearly indicated it was soft – as did the performance of a mudlark like Allexina.

Allexina could actually win a Group race on soft ground and I hope she gets the chance to do so before the end of the season.

CLARA ALLEN CAN WIN NOVEMBER HANDICAP

Big handicaps are normally won by improving, lightly-raced horses. This was certainly the case with the Irish Cesarewitch won in very good time by CLARA ALLEN (39).

Clara Allen has now won all three times she has raced at long distances. So she must have a great chance of taking the Leopardstown November Handicap over two miles next time out.

WATSON LAKE RUNS A BIG TIME

WATSON LAKE (40) is a very fast chaser when he gets a bit of cut in the ground. Last Sunday he took his record to seven wins from his last eleven runs on yielding or softer ground at Limerick. In doing so he beat the smart ACCORDION ETOILE (39) and recorded a fast time.

In the past Watson Lake has had problems lasting two and a half miles at a strong pace. He’s also seemed to be best fresh. But now that he’s had a wind operation all this may change. The wind operation may have been the factor that enabled Watson Lake to equal the biggest speed rating I’ve ever given him here. So I’m inclined to go with his trainer’s idea of stepping him back up in trip. The move makes sense because the longer the distance the fewer the number of fast horses.

Runner-up Accordion Etoile ran a seriously good race on his chasing debut on ground that was surely too soft for him. To give a fast and experienced rival such a tough fight despite blundering two out indicates that he has a rosy future over fences. In fact at this stage I’d be hard pressed to think of a horse I’d prefer to be betting ante-post for the Arkle.