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ALLEXINA (35) sploshed through the mud to win a decent Listed
race over a mile in Group class time at the Curragh. It takes a fair bit of
stamina for a two year old to do that, so I wasn't surprised to read trainer
John Oxx's comment that she should make up into a nice filly over a distance of
ground next year. You could argue from her form that she needs mud. But Oxx says
she only lost on faster ground last time because she ran green. Allexina beat
the useful Adaala (who I've written up here before) two lengths into second and
looks an interesting prospect for next season. She's not in the Oaks, but a mile
and a half looks to be her game.
IMPERIAL BRIEF (33) is another two year old that clocked a
decent time in Ireland recently. He did this when winning a decent Auction race
in the mud at Galway. He's won both times that he's raced beyond six furlongs
and ought to be competitive in pattern company next season.
There are nowhere near as many fast sprinters in Ireland as
there are in Britain. So the fast time clocked by MUFRADAT (37) at the Curragh
last Saturday is worth noting. She's still a fresh horse (thanks to a pulled
muscle which sidelined her), and that's a big edge at this end of the flat
season. She apparently has one more run at Leopardstown this coming Sunday where
she must have a major chance.
FORGET THE PAST A NAME TO REMEMBER
FORGET THE PAST (39) looks like a seriously good novice chaser
after his win in exceptionally fast time at Limerick. He'd won a point to point
by four lengths the only previous time he'd jumped fences and is capable of
winning a Grade 2 or Grade 3 race according to my ratings.
Runner-up COAST TO COAST (37) also won his sole point to point
start and would have made a winning chase debut under rules but for bumping into
Forget The Past. He had 20 lengths to spare over the third in a big field and
looks a good thing to win next time. He's not far off Graded class on this run.
Pro Dancer (37) won a Listed chase at Cork for the second year
in a row. But I can't recommend following him. My read of his form is that, like
many horse with suspect wind, he's best when fresh and not at his peak in the
winter months.
POLLY'S JOY (37) is due to be rested following her win in fast
time at Naas. I'd be interested in her chances when she returns as her official
handicap mark still seems set to seriously understate her level of ability.
She'd be a particularly attractive proposition back at Naas or at Navan, as she
seems to like really stiff tracks.
SENOR BENNY (39) ran an unusually fast time for a Listed race
when taking the Abergwaun Stakes at Cork. On soft ground he is clearly a
seriously decent sprinter and must have a great chance of following up at
Leopardstown on the last day of the flat season if he gets his ground.
KICKING KING NOT THAT SMART
POUT (32) is a horse I should have written up last week after
her win in fast time in a nursery handicap at Fairyhouse. She clearly improved
for the step up to six furlongs and has now been entered for a Listed race at
the same distance. On the clock she should have a very good chance of winning at
that level.
Over jumps, Kicking King (38) equaled his best speed figure to
take the National Lottery Agent Champion Chase at Gowran Park. The thing is, so
far he has run about four lengths a mile shy of what is required to win Grade 1
chases. He's set to race at Grade 1 level in future.
Even more concerning is the fact that Kicking King is set to
step up to three miles. Kicking King's dam has produced two other winners to
date - Glenfarclas Boy and Colonel Monroe. Both faded away like old soldiers
whenever they were asked to go three miles. I'm not convinced that Kicking
King's sire, Old Vic, passes on enough stamina to counter this trend. So, seeing
that the horse is going to have to run faster than he has before to score again
AND do so at a longer trip, I'm predicting a pretty thin season for Kicking King
from now on.
SOLERINA - MUDLARK SUPREME
JAZZ PRINCESS (35) kept up the recent trend of overturning the
established but weak 2YO Group form when taking the Weld Stakes at the Curragh
in good style. Her rating indicates that she's only a Group 2 horse, but she won
clearly and remains unbeaten so it's wrong to presume just yet that she's shy of
Classic class. The three year old fillies tend to be a highly volatile bunch.
Some year's (like this one and 2,000) you get an exceptional crop, with several
of them capable of beating older males at Group 1 level. Other years the best
ones are so slow they can only beat each other. It all depends how they train on
and what ability remains among the unraced fillies. We'll only know the answer
next season.
Over jumps SOLERINA (41) ran her fastest time ever by my
estimates despite racing over the minimum NH distance in the Grade 1 John James
McManus Memorial Hurdle at Tipperary. Clearly it was the soft ground that made
all the difference to Solerina. In fact she has now won the last twelve times
she's run on ground officially softer than yielding. But she's lost all her four
runs on faster ground since breaking her maiden over hurdles on good to yielding
ground two years ago. If it comes up soft for the Irish Cesarewitch this weekend
she'll surely be awfully hard to beat. Long term I think it's best to regard her
as unbeatable over hurdles when she gets her ground.
ACCORDION ETOILE (39) had run a bit quicker when scoring over
course and distance on faster ground last time. His trainer says that he prefers
good or firmer, and that seems right judged on his record. Accordion Etoile has
won all four times he's run over hurdles on good or faster going but lost all
three times he's encountered yielding or softer. He did tremendously well to get
so close to such an accomplished mudlark as Solerina here and I wouldn't
discount his Champion Hurdle chances yet. He's a very smart hurdler on fast
ground.
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