IRELAND OCTOBER 04

 

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ALLEXINA (35) sploshed through the mud to win a decent Listed race over a mile in Group class time at the Curragh. It takes a fair bit of stamina for a two year old to do that, so I wasn't surprised to read trainer John Oxx's comment that she should make up into a nice filly over a distance of ground next year. You could argue from her form that she needs mud. But Oxx says she only lost on faster ground last time because she ran green. Allexina beat the useful Adaala (who I've written up here before) two lengths into second and looks an interesting prospect for next season. She's not in the Oaks, but a mile and a half looks to be her game.

IMPERIAL BRIEF (33) is another two year old that clocked a decent time in Ireland recently. He did this when winning a decent Auction race in the mud at Galway. He's won both times that he's raced beyond six furlongs and ought to be competitive in pattern company next season.

There are nowhere near as many fast sprinters in Ireland as there are in Britain. So the fast time clocked by MUFRADAT (37) at the Curragh last Saturday is worth noting. She's still a fresh horse (thanks to a pulled muscle which sidelined her), and that's a big edge at this end of the flat season. She apparently has one more run at Leopardstown this coming Sunday where she must have a major chance.

 

FORGET THE PAST A NAME TO REMEMBER

FORGET THE PAST (39) looks like a seriously good novice chaser after his win in exceptionally fast time at Limerick. He'd won a point to point by four lengths the only previous time he'd jumped fences and is capable of winning a Grade 2 or Grade 3 race according to my ratings.

Runner-up COAST TO COAST (37) also won his sole point to point start and would have made a winning chase debut under rules but for bumping into Forget The Past. He had 20 lengths to spare over the third in a big field and looks a good thing to win next time. He's not far off Graded class on this run.

Pro Dancer (37) won a Listed chase at Cork for the second year in a row. But I can't recommend following him. My read of his form is that, like many horse with suspect wind, he's best when fresh and not at his peak in the winter months.

POLLY'S JOY (37) is due to be rested following her win in fast time at Naas. I'd be interested in her chances when she returns as her official handicap mark still seems set to seriously understate her level of ability. She'd be a particularly attractive proposition back at Naas or at Navan, as she seems to like really stiff tracks.

SENOR BENNY (39) ran an unusually fast time for a Listed race when taking the Abergwaun Stakes at Cork. On soft ground he is clearly a seriously decent sprinter and must have a great chance of following up at Leopardstown on the last day of the flat season if he gets his ground.

 

KICKING KING NOT THAT SMART

POUT (32) is a horse I should have written up last week after her win in fast time in a nursery handicap at Fairyhouse. She clearly improved for the step up to six furlongs and has now been entered for a Listed race at the same distance. On the clock she should have a very good chance of winning at that level.

Over jumps, Kicking King (38) equaled his best speed figure to take the National Lottery Agent Champion Chase at Gowran Park. The thing is, so far he has run about four lengths a mile shy of what is required to win Grade 1 chases. He's set to race at Grade 1 level in future.

Even more concerning is the fact that Kicking King is set to step up to three miles. Kicking King's dam has produced two other winners to date - Glenfarclas Boy and Colonel Monroe. Both faded away like old soldiers whenever they were asked to go three miles. I'm not convinced that Kicking King's sire, Old Vic, passes on enough stamina to counter this trend. So, seeing that the horse is going to have to run faster than he has before to score again AND do so at a longer trip, I'm predicting a pretty thin season for Kicking King from now on.

 

SOLERINA - MUDLARK SUPREME

JAZZ PRINCESS (35) kept up the recent trend of overturning the established but weak 2YO Group form when taking the Weld Stakes at the Curragh in good style. Her rating indicates that she's only a Group 2 horse, but she won clearly and remains unbeaten so it's wrong to presume just yet that she's shy of Classic class. The three year old fillies tend to be a highly volatile bunch. Some year's (like this one and 2,000) you get an exceptional crop, with several of them capable of beating older males at Group 1 level. Other years the best ones are so slow they can only beat each other. It all depends how they train on and what ability remains among the unraced fillies. We'll only know the answer next season.

Over jumps SOLERINA (41) ran her fastest time ever by my estimates despite racing over the minimum NH distance in the Grade 1 John James McManus Memorial Hurdle at Tipperary. Clearly it was the soft ground that made all the difference to Solerina. In fact she has now won the last twelve times she's run on ground officially softer than yielding. But she's lost all her four runs on faster ground since breaking her maiden over hurdles on good to yielding ground two years ago. If it comes up soft for the Irish Cesarewitch this weekend she'll surely be awfully hard to beat. Long term I think it's best to regard her as unbeatable over hurdles when she gets her ground.

ACCORDION ETOILE (39) had run a bit quicker when scoring over course and distance on faster ground last time. His trainer says that he prefers good or firmer, and that seems right judged on his record. Accordion Etoile has won all four times he's run over hurdles on good or faster going but lost all three times he's encountered yielding or softer. He did tremendously well to get so close to such an accomplished mudlark as Solerina here and I wouldn't discount his Champion Hurdle chances yet. He's a very smart hurdler on fast ground.