STRONG PROJECT JUST AS GOOD OVER HURDLES

STRONG PROJECT (38) has had problems jumping in anything except a small field over fences. So it makes sense that he should do well switched back to the smaller obstacles. And he certainly did when beating the Grade 1 winners WILD PASSION (38), Barrow Drive (37) and Strangely Brown (35) at Thurles.

I imagine that trainer Sean O'Brien is hoping the handicapper will base his hurdle rating for Strong Project on the fact that the first three home in this race have been running over fences. If he does then the idea of targeting the Coral Cup with the horse is a viable one. But if the handicapper looks at the time of the race and takes into account the idea that the runner-up is a dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles then O'Brien will surely be forced into running Strong Project in conditions hurdles instead. Either way, the idea of mixing hurdling and chasing with the horse looks a smart plan. It will enable Strong Project to avoid the big fields that have crowded him into jumping errors over fences in the past. I strongly suspect he'll be winning something decent this term.

Wild Passion opened up a whole load of new possibilities for himself by running close to his best over a much longer distance than he's tried before. As I see it, he is now a completely new horse from a punting point of view, so I don't want to get caught into developing any hard and fast ideas about what he can do now that he's running over so much further. Certainly he looks an interesting prospect for three mile chases now and might well be good enough for the very best ones.

WAR OF ATTRITION DOES IT AGAIN

WAR OF ATTRITION (44) yet again ran a monstrously fast time to score on his seasonal debut at Punchestown. It's obvious he is one of the best chasers we've seen in recent years.

One thing I know about horses that habitually earn huge speed ratings from me is that they tend to be best fresh. A really fast race can knock the stuffing out of a horse, particularly when it's a steeplechase. So it's interesting to note that to date War Of Attrition has won all five chases he's run in when the gaps between his races have conformed to what I call 'the rest pattern'. That is, his first two starts of the season and with a break of at least five weeks between his completed starts thereafter. He's lost both chases he's run in when he hasn't been freshened up in this way.

When he's fresh I wouldn't want to oppose War Of Attrition. But if his connections are tempted into bringing him back less than five weeks after his next start I'd be looking to oppose him.

CENTRAL HOUSE SHOULD WIN NEXT TIME OUT

The two mile maiden run at Navan's October meeting always attracts a bunch of smart jump horses having a warm up for the coming season. And those that run well are often profitable to follow in their next few starts.

This year's winner BLUEBYYOU (36) won three bumper races and is clearly useful. I confess that I can't explain the two dreadful runs in his record. They seemed to come out of nowhere. But he's won the last three times he's run two miles plus and looks a good hurdles prospect.

Runner-up LAURELDEAN (36) will almost certainly come on for the run. I say this because he's won four of the last five times he's had a run within the last month and encountered the cut in the ground he needs. He came into this race off a five and a half week break. If he goes back jumping before November seventeenth I'd be very interested in his chances.

KERRYHEAD WINDFARM (36) has jumped to his right over fences, and I suspect he is better on right-handed courses when he's not racing on the flat. He seems to do especially well on galloping right-handed courses, particularly Punchestown. Right now it's hard to say just how good he is because most of last season he was running over fences and he didn't prove very good at jumping them. Back over hurdles he's shown consistently smart form in five tries at Punchestown, winning two and finishing second to Grade 1 winners in the other three. If he returns to that track soon, or perhaps another right-hand galloping course, I'd be interested in his chances.

CENTRAL HOUSE (35) is the main horse to take out of the race if you're looking for the most likely future winner. Central House always appears to need his first run of the season, so he did very well to get so close off a five month break here Central House also seems to dislike tight tracks and never seems to hold his form beyond February. Toss out his seasonal debuts, and his tight track runs and you'll find that Central House's form in two mile chases is very impressive before March. In fact, if he hadn't bumped into Rathgar Beau and Kicking King a few times he would have won ten times out of twelve in what I see as his ideal combination of circumstances. And one of his losses was that memorable race at Leopardstown when his jockey eased him prematurely with the race won.

Central House can run as fast as any two mile chaser in training. He should be awfully hard to beat on galloping tracks at the minimum distance anytime from now until just before the Cheltenham Festival.

IKTITAF FINALLY RUNS A FAST TIME

I have not been a great fan of Iktitaf (40) because he's never run a seriously fast time – until last week that is. He put the situation right when winning a Listed conditions hurdle at Punchestown in Grade 2 class time.

Okay, Iktitaf has now run fast, and I know he would have won his last six races if only he hadn't got injured when second to Mounthenry. But he's still quite some way off Detroit City and Brave Inca according to my ratings, so I'm not going to join his fan club just yet. Those early losses in hurdle races still have me worried that he's not as good as most people seem to suppose.

BOCA DANCER REPEATS HER BIG DEBUT EFFORT

BOCA DANCER (37) looked a certainty to win a mile Listed race at the Curragh on my speed ratings as she'd run a Group 1 class time when scoring over seven on her debut. Sure enough she dotted up, again running very fast indeed and looks set to become a high class middle distance performer next year.

BOCA DANCER IS A CLASSIC PROSPECT

BOCA DANCER (37) won a good seven furlong maiden at Cork in a time that marks him out as a classic prospect for next season. He's entered in the Derby and may well be able to stay the distance if he's conditioned for it by avoiding the Guineas and Guineas Trials. His sire, Indian Ridge, has produced several decent mile and a half performers despite being a sprinter. And his dam's only two previous runners were both mile and a half performers in France.

Boca Dancer was always traveling well and won the race impressively, so it looks likely that he can actually go a bit faster. I'll be looking forward to seeing his name among the entries for the Ballysax Stakes and the Leopardstown Derby Trial next Spring.

The Coolmore colt ALBERT EINSTEIN (36) stayed on nicely to finish clear of the rest and rates as a pretty decent prospect himself on this run.

CONFUCHIAS SAYS IT WITH A FAST TIME

CONFUCHIAS (36) hosed up un a six furlong maiden at Naas in pattern class time. He won the race easing up so is clearly capable of better. His dam won over a mile and a half so it looks likely he'll stay further as well. I can see him taking a Guineas trial next Spring. Certainly he's worth bearing in mind for something better.

COOLCASHIN SHOULD BE FOLLOWED

You rarely see anything like a fast time run in a bumper so the performance of COOLCASHIN (33) at Tramore caught my eye. He won a Bumper on his racecourse debut there despite pulling hard.

At this point I can only hazard a guess as to how good Coolcashin really is or what circumstances suit him best. But experience tells me he should be followed.

EAGLE MOUNTAIN LOOKS THE ONE FOR THE RACING POST TROPHY

Aiden O'Brien has as good a bunch of two year olds as he ever has according to my speed ratings. And EAGLE MOUNTAIN (39) showed that he's one of the best of them when running away with the Beresford Stakes in remarkably fast time.

You don't often see a two year old run this quick at a mile. So I would say that Eagle Mountain is more than just a Group 1 horse, he's a major Classic candidate.

Clearly Eagle Mountain appreciated the step up in distance. And, seeing that he's a half brother to Sulk who ran second in a Group 1 over two miles, it's interesting to speculate on his prospects of staying the Derby trip.

I'd bet good money that O'Brien will be going the well tried Ballysax Stakes and Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial route with Eagle Mountain next term rather than shooting for the Guineas. So he does look rather attractive at the available 16-1 for the Blue Riband. And I'd say he's going to be a whole lot shorter after the Racing Post Trophy as he now looks much the best candidate for that race.

JUSTIFIED RUNS FAST, BUT WILL HE STAY?

JUSTIFIED (38) ran yet another fast time to win on his seasonal debut at Limerick. But I'm still not sure whether he's going to stay the longer trips he's going to be tried over soon. There's little evidence from his dam's side of stamina and only half of his sire's best progeny have stayed three miles.

The other concern I have about Justified is his jumping. He again jumped out to his left here, and I have to wonder whether he'll get away with this in bigger fields where he won't have room to pick and choose where to take off from.

Still, it's hard to knock a Grade 1 winner that has won ten times out of eighteen. So I'm going to continue to sit on the fence with Justified till he shows us exactly what he can do in bigger fields and over longer trips.

KALDERON JUST AS SMART OVER HURDLES

KALDERON (38) won half a dozen races in a row when he was trained in Germany. When he won Tipperary's Grade 3 Joe Mac Novice Hurdle he was taking his third Irish start in a row. And he earned a speed rating almost as good as his best flat runs in doing so.

So far all of Kalderon's ten wins have come on tight tracks. It could simply be that he wasn't at his best when losing a string of races on galloping tracks when he came to Ireland. But until he shows he can run as well away from a tight turning course it will probably pay to be cautious about his chances at such venues. In any event, he's the fastest novice hurdler we've seen so far this season.

HASANKA A GOOD PROSPECT FOR NEXT SEASON

You don't see many juvenile fillies run a mile as fast on their racecourse debuts as HASANKA (34) did at Cork. This is a pattern class filly according to my speed ratings, one that looks set to develop into a very decent middle distance performer next season.