CLEW BAY LODGE SHOULD WIN A BIG RACE THIS WINTER

CLEW BAY LODGE (38) hosed up in fast time to win a valuable handicap hurdle at Naas last weekend. He was off for two years with leg problems but has come back as good as ever. He probably found two miles too short last time and pulled against a very slow early pace in another race. But he's won his other two starts this term in very good style and looks a good bet to win a big race over two and a half miles or more sometime this Winter. Most likely it will be a handicap as he won this off a very lenient mark of 111 which massively understates his ability according to my speed ratings.

LONESOME MAVERICK LOOKS WORTH FOLLOWING

LONESOME MAVERICK (36) ran much his fastest ever race to finish a close second to the useful DOLPHIN BAY (37) at Navan and looks worth following.

This relatively lightly-raced three year old is clearly better at ten furlongs than the seven he was running before and should win soon.

Dolphin Bay would have won all three times he's run at Navan but for coming up against the very smart Al Eile when losing narrowly on one occasion. He's also unbeaten in three starts at Killarney. Perhaps he needs a really steep finish or tight turns to offset his lack of acceleration.

FEN GAME IMPROVES

FEN GAME (36) showed serious improvement to win a maiden hurdle at Thurles, recording the fastest time of the 287 hurdle and bumper races run over two miles at the track in the last eleven years. It could well be he needs firm ground but he's had only a few runs over hurdles so all I can say at this point is he's useful and should win again.

Runner-up OSCILLATING OSCAR (35) is bred for chasing and longer distances. So he did very well to chase the winner home. I'd bet on him franking this form soon, especially if he's stepped up to two and a half miles.

SIZING EUROPE ONE OF THE BEST HURDLERS

It looks clear that SIZING EUROPE (40?) would have won if he hadn't fallen at Punchestown last week as he was going much the best when he exited two out. Seeing that the winner, AITMATOV (38) posted a smart G3 time this makes Sizing Europe look very interesting indeed. I'm betting he would have earned a speed rating of at least 40 from me if he'd stood up, maybe even bigger. That would put him up there with the top hurdlers.

An impressive winner at the Punchestown Festival on his previous run, I now strongly suspect that Sizing Europe is indeed one of the very best hurdlers and that we'll be talking about him in connection with the Champion Hurdle before long.

Aitmatov is clearly improving and is probably a better horse on the faster going he encountered here. He should be able to win more hurdle races around Listed/G3 class.

DBEST A SOLID ARKLE CANDIDATE

DBEST (39) just qualifies as a novice over fences because his first win over the bigger jumps came on the fourth of May. This fact will surely be exploited by his connections following their horses win in very fast time against experienced rivals at Cork. My speed ratings indicate the performance was more than good enough to make him a candidate for the Arkle, whether it be the Baileys Arkle or the one at Cheltenham.

Dbest does seem to need good ground and has won the last three times he's got it over fences. He jumps exceptionally well for a novice and looks set to win something big over two miles sooner rather than later.

PROVINCIAL IS HEADED FOR THE BIG TIME

Towards the end of each season there are invariably about half a dozen two year old debutantes that earn seriously big speed ratings over seven furlongs or more. About half the time they fail to train on. But the half that do become Classic candidates.

I don't which category PROVINCIAL (36) fits into. All I can report is that he earned a bigger speed rating from me than any two year old debutante has in Ireland all season when scoring at Roscommon.

It looks like Provincial is going to be a miler. So I'd watch out for him in a Guineas Trial next Spring. Most people will have forgotten about him by then and will probably pass him over as his win came at such a minor track. But most horses improve two or three points from their debuts and another two or three points from two to three. So I'd be very wary of opposing Provincial whatever faces him.

SUFAD (36), another debutante, pulled five lengths clear of the third as he duelled with the winner over the last quarter mile. He only went under in a photo and, like the winner, looks a future Group winner.

THE GOD OF LOVE USEFUL ON TIGHT TRACKS

THE GOD OF LOVE (36) clocked a borderline pattern class time when winning a 60-100 handicap at Dundalk last week. He is clearly a smart horse on tight tracks. In fact he has now won all four times he's run on courses less than a mile and a half in circumference.

TIMARWA IS SMART

TIMARWA (38) is only a couple of lengths per mile off the best three year old fillies judged on the time she clocked to win a Group 3 race at Gowran Park. It looks like her trainer John Oxx is right to suggest she's best on faster ground. It was yielding at Gowran Park judged by race times and she's run below her best all four times she's run on anything slower.

Runner-up MANY COLOURS (38) hung under pressure as she has done before. She's lost several times in really big fields but had won the previous four times she'd been in races with 16 runners or less. No doubt she'll become more maneuverable as she gains experience. But I'd still prefer her in fields smaller than twelve.

THE LAST STAND SHOULD WIN AGAIN

It's fiendishly difficult making speed ratings for Irish race meetings. The main reason is that the running rails are often moved by a huge amount. This goes unreported but alters the distance of races massively.

Last Saturday at Gowran Park people were saying the rails must have been moved because the times the horses ran were unbelievable. In fact the fastest hurdle race and the fastest bumper race race run in Ireland over the last eleven years (as far back as my records go) were both staged at the track that day.

I honestly have no idea what distance THE LAST STAND (37) actually ran when winning a good handicap hurdle at Gowran Park's meeting. But I guarantee it was a whole lot less than the advertised trip of two miles. So I'm pretty sure the race should be declared void as most horse-racing bodies around the world have a rule that no race should be run over less than the advertised distance.

I could rant at length about what I think of tracks that move the running rails in this way without re-measuring the course. But from a betting standpoint I am merely going to note that a comparison with the times of the other two mile races on the card suggests that The Last Stand ran a pattern class time and is worth following.

An interesting point is that The Last Stand may well not have won had the race been run over a full two miles. My read of his form is that he barely lasts two miles in a truly run race and needs yielding or faster ground to do so. He's now won four of the five hurdle races he's contested on yielding or faster ground at the minimum national hunt distance.

DINGLE BELL (37) was staying on and would have gone close if she hadn't tipped up two out. I suspect she would have equaled the big speed rating I gave her last time. That means she is still worth following.

US RANGER IS A TOP CLASS SPRINTER

US RANGER (41) ran a time that suggests he's capable of winning a Group 1 race over six furlongs when hosing up in a listed race at the Curragh last Sunday. Clearly he's a better horse over this sort of trip than a mile and was a shrewd acquisition by Coolmore.

Sprinters tend to hit their peak as four and five year olds. So it looks likely that US Ranger is going to be a candidate for all the big sprints next season.

BILLYFORD LOOKS INTERESTING FOR DUNDALK'S STAR OF APPEAL STAKES

BILLYFORD (36) will probably be the highest rated horse on my speed ratings when he contests the Star Of Appeal Stakes at Dundalk on October 12th. He earned that distinction by winning a Premier Nursery Handicap in seriously fast time on the track's new Polytrack surface last week.

Billyford has now won the last three times he's run on a fast surface. He looks to have a major chance of making it four on the bounce when he returns to Dundalk next time.

DON'T OPPOSE SOUTH WING AT DUNDALK

SOUTH WING (36) won a ten furlong handicap on Dundalk's Polytrack in seriously fast time last week. If he hadn't run green when losing one race by half a length he would have now won all three times he's run beyond a sprint trip on Polytrack or fast turf (it's a good rule of thumb to count Polytrack as good to firm turf in my experience). He's due to return to Dundalk next time and I'd be wary of opposing him there.