JERED IS TOUGH TO BEAT

There was no way JERED (28) was ever going to get beat in the Grade 3 Anglo Irish Bank Hurdle at Down Royal if he could handle the very soft ground.

The field reached the fourth hurdle 5.4 seconds later than they did in the mares novice hurdle the race before. And Jered could be seen cruising along in third spot. When the race began in earnest from the third last it was clear the going was no problem as he sauntered up to the leading pair, CORK ALL STAR (28) and Whatuthink (17) to close the gap.

Whatuthink was soon outrun and it soon became clear that Cork All Star was only managing to keep alongside Jered on sufferance. Tony McCoy simply let Jered coast along to win cheekily, not even letting his mount clear away as Cork All Star visibly tired from just before the last.

This run didn't really tell us anything new about Jered except that he can act on soft ground. We still need to know whether he can show the same brilliance in very strongly run race. In addition we need to know that he can hold his form against the stiffer competition he'll be facing this year. After all, he is a light framed sort, so I suspect he'll prove to be best fresh now that he's tackling better opposition.

I can't recall ever seeing a hurdler or chaser with a better finishing kick than Jered. Time will tell if he's simply going to be a horse that mops up in small field Conditions events before flopping in the big one in March. Right now though I wouldn't want to bet against him unless he's asked to run too often.

I have to say I was disappointed with the way Cork All Star folded. Seeing how slow he was allowed to go early he really should have been able to pick up a whole lot more. In fact he took a full second longer from two out than the mare Tramp Stamp did in the preceding race where, as I've mentioned, they went over five seconds quicker to around halfway.

Looking at the video and the stopwatch, I reckon Jered could have sprinted away from Cork All Star to win by a dozen lengths if McCoy had asked him to. As I see it, for whatever reason, Cork All Star is still not in form. And a lot of people are going to be misled into thinking that he is simply because McCoy decided to win this race so cheekily.

KAUTO STAR SHOULD HAVE RUN A BIT FASTER

It's awfully hard to rate a race where one horse basically comes home alone. But I have to say that the way the JNWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal was run should have produced a faster final time from KAUTO STAR (39).

In a race where the doubtful stayers Knight Legend and The Listener ran each other into the ground and the only other serious contender unseated Kauto Star should have done more than beat Light On The Broom eleven lengths. After all Light On The Broom is a twelve year old that has lost 26 times in a row and is rated 45 pounds lower than Kauto Star on official figures.

I still can't shake the impression of how Kauto Star tired so terribly in the closing stages at Aintree last April. He had three really tough races in a row in the Spring and I wonder whether they've left their mark. Perhaps I'm being over-sensitive. But off a strong pace a horse that's earned ratings of 45 from me in the past should have run a lot faster unless he'd been heavily eased a long way out, which he wasn't.

I hope Kauto Star proves me wrong. But my inclination right now is to oppose him in future when he takes on better opposition.

We know from past experience that THE LISTENER doesn't stay three miles if the pace is really strong or the track is a testing one. So it was no huge surprise to see him tire badly on such soft ground. He's still a serious horse over two and a half miles or an easy three when not asked to go too fast early.

Seeing how Knight Legend and The Listener tired, I think it's a safe bet that TURPIN GREEN would have finished second had he not unseated his rider three out. He was being ridden along at the time but was still going well enough and would surely have been good enough to beat Light On The Broom home.

I would be wary of buying into the widespread belief that Turpin Green is a 'quirky' horse that is not to be trusted. His trainer, Nicky Richards, puts down his near refusal at Sandown early in his career to inexperience. And his jockey, Tony Dobbin, says that all those incidents where he's been reluctant to run have come at Haydock when he's caught sight of the stable exit.

It's actually not that uncommon for horses to try and pull themselves up or run out on certain tracks at the point where the stable exit becomes clearly visible. The other course where you'll see this happen quite a lot is Newbury. And it's interesting Newbury is the only place where Turpin Green had to be pulled up. He stopped traveling well from the ninth in the Hennessy. And the ninth is the point where the runners can first see the stable exit.

Early on in his career, Turpin Green ran a clunker at Kelso. Richards accepted the blame there, saying he shouldn't have run him back just ten days after his previous outing.

Indeed, though Turpin Green did win his second lifetime start without a break that was following an easy win in slow time against totally outclassed rivals. His subsequent wins have all come off a lay-off of five weeks plus.

Toss out Turpin Green's Haydock runs and this record off a break of five weeks plus elsewhere shows four wins out of seven completed starts. One of his losses was that neck second in a Grade 1 at Sandown where the nearly refused at the last. Another was that smart third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. His other loss outside Haydock when fresh came when he was fifth at the Cheltenham Festival on ground that was almost certainly too fast for him.

Turpin Green earned the joint biggest speed rating I can recall giving a horse on its chasing debut. And his third in the Gold Cup was a seriously big run too. He showed no signs of behavioural problems before his departure here. I have my eye on him to win a big chase at a monstrous price sometime this term.

NOLAND IMPRESSES

Paul Nicholls has had terrific success with breathing operations. And he has another success story on his hands now that NOLAND (39) has gone and romped home in the Grade 3 Killultagh properties Chase at Down Royal.

I'm rating Noland on the time he took to cover the final mile and three quarters because they went slow for the first five fences and then picked up the pace from there. He came home exactly four seconds quicker than Kauto Star did over the last 14 furlongs which is exactly what you'd expect according to my calculations for horses of equal merit running two and a half and three miles.

What was most interesting was how confident Ruby Walsh was throughout the race. He allowed the Cheltenham Festival winner Finger Onthe Pulse to lead him. And he seemed totally unperturbed when that one outjumped Noland a couple of times.

With two to jump you could see why Walsh was so confident. He asked Noland to run and the horse picked up in terrific style, powering home from there in just 24.4 seconds, 2.2 seconds faster than Kauto Star managed.

I'm not totally convinced that Paul Nicholls is right to say that Noland is best at two miles. He's such a strong horse and finished so powerfully here I feel he'd get three miles without much trouble.

It's tough to say just how good Noland is at this stage. My feeling is he can hit ratings around the 42 level and win Grade 1 chases. However I would add the normal caveat that horses with a history of breathing problems tend to be best fresh. That is they're good for their first two starts of the season but then need rests of at least five weeks between their completed starts thereafter to produce their best.

RAYENI IS A SERIOUS CLASSIC PROSPECT

WAR OF ATTRITION NOT FAR OFF BEST

WAR OF ATTRITIION (39) looked awfully good when cruising away from Kicking King (32) off a near two year lay-off at Punchestown. He jumped well in the closing stages and was always moving easily. And the clock shows he put up a very decent performance. He covered the last two and a quarter miles of his two and three quarter mile race just 0.7 of a second slower than the smart novice chaser Trafford Lad did when scoring over the half mile shorter trip earlier on the card. That suggests his performance was four points better on my scale when I allow for the slower times horses clock at longer trips.

We all know that no Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has ever taken the race again except in the very next year. But War Of Attritition has so few miles on the clock and looked so good here I can see him having a good shot at overturning that stat come March.

HOW GOOD IS CAPTAIN RAMIUS?

CAPTAIN RAMIUS (36), whose dam was German bred, was a rather appropriate winner of Dundalk's Star Appeal stakes, which is named after the German Arc winner.

The slow pace and sprint finish that prevails in so many races on Polytrack makes things difficult for speed ratings compilers like myself. It's hard to say just what time a horse would have run if the pace had been strong throughout.

My best guess, based on a sectional timing formula I employ, is that Captain Ramius would have earned a good Group 3 class speed rating for his win in this race if the early gallop had been strong.

Captain Ramius made all the running as he had previously and produced a serious burst of speed up the straight, covering the last two furlongs in 22.4 seconds by my reckoning.

The two Polytrack races Captain Ramius contested previously were both slow run as well. The first was a maiden where the pace didn't pick up till the last two furlongs. He won that with a terrific burst of speed which saw him blast almost three lengths clear by the line.

Next time out the pace picked up three furlongs out. But there was a strong wind which, along with his inexperience, caused Captain Ramius to run around a little when he kicked for home. He dipped well under 35 seconds for the final three furlongs. You can debate whether or not he would have beaten the smart runner up Ashram if he hadn't caused that horse to take up twice while running around. It's hard to say. But the stewards are usually right about these things and they let him keep the race.

Ashram's wide margin win next time out in the G3 Tattersalls Somerville Stakes at Newmarket certainly makes that form look good..

My feeling from looking at Captain Ramius is that he's a classy sort with a serious turn of foot that's solid Group class on a fast surface. He looks like a miler to me. I don't know whether he'll be able to show the same form on a straight course. My suspicion at this stage is not, as he's pretty close coupled and quick to respond, which is what you need with a horse around a turn. In addition he does seem to wander around a bit in the closing stages which tends to be more costly on a straight course. He should certainly act on fast turf and looks an interesting prospect for next season. It's a shame he's not in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as he'd surely have a major chance there given his affinity with synthetic surfaces and tight turns.